Tropical Storm Rick

Post Tropical Storm Rick Track 2200 Hours October 25 2021
Post Tropical Storm Rick Track 2200 Hours October 25 2021

Tropical Storm Rick Wind Speed FieldHurricane Rick – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 25, 2021 (see Monday video below)

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Rick has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico. The surface low, if one exists, appears to be elongated east-to-west based on a few weather observations, and there is no organized deep convection within 150 nmi of the poorly defined center. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Rick.

Although the system has dissipated, deep-layer moisture associated with Rick’s remnants will continue to spread northward over south-central and west-central Mexico. As a result, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of those areas through at least Tuesday. These rains may contribute to dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. For additional information on the heavy rainfall and flood potential, please consult products issued by your local weather forecast office.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Rick.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 20.4N 103.1W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WNW Presa Corona,MX)
 12H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 25, 2021 

The center of Rick made landfall a short distance east of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico earlier this morning. Since then, visible satellite images show that the system has continued to move generally northward over southern Mexico. Assuming that weakening has occurred after landfall at a rate similar to that given by the decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is set at 70 kt. Rick should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, and although the NHC forecast shows a 24-h point, the global models suggest that the cyclone could dissipate by that time.

Satellite fixes indicate that Rick is moving just west of due north at a slightly faster forward speed, or around 350/8 kt. A low-latitude mid-level ridge to the east of Rick should steer the cyclone northward to north-northwestward until dissipation occurs over southwestern Mexico. The official forecast track is based partly on extrapolation since most of the model trackers lose the system later today due to dissipation of the low-level circulation. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 18.6N 102.2W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1(WSW El Capulín,MX)
 12H  26/0000Z 19.7N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE La Garita.MX)
 24H  26/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Las Presas,MX)
 36H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 24, 2021 

Rick’s convective organization and inner-core structure have both continued to improve since the previous advisory. GMI and SSMI/S passive microwave satellite data at 2245Z and 2310Z, respectively, revealed that the hurricane had redeveloped a 20-nmi-wide low- and mid-level closed eye that was surrounded by a solid ring of intense convection. With better center placement now, satellite intensity estimates using an embedded center technique indicate that Rick is just below the T5.0/90-kt intensity classification threshold. Based on these data, the intensity was increased to 80 kt at 0000 UTC and has been held at that value at the advisory time due to no appreciable change in Rick’s appearance in infrared satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently enroute to provide a better assessment of Rick’s intensity and compact wind field structure around 0600 UTC.

The aforementioned GMI and SSMI/S microwave satellite data, compared to earlier microwave imagery, indicate that Rick’s eye/center has been moving due north over the past 9 hours, or 360/05 kt. The hurricane is currently located to the right or east of the previous forecast track and model guidance, and only the new GFS model run is on the right side of the latest track guidance envelope. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged a little to the right of the previous track, but not quite as far east as the northward-moving GFS model scenario since the bulk of the other track forecasts still show Rick making a turn toward the north-northwest during the next 6 hours. The subtropical ridge steering the hurricane is forecast to remain in place for the next 36 hours, which should result in Rick making landfall in about 12 h, with the cyclone dissipating in 36-48 h over the mountainous interior of south-central or central Mexico.

The deep-layer vertical shear across Rick is forecast to increase to 15-18 kt in 12 h. However, the shear direction is going to be from the south, which be along rather across Rick’s forward motion, thus lessening the otherwise adverse effects of the increasing shear. As a result, some slight strengthening will be possible until the hurricane makes landfall late Monday morning. The latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous advisory, but a 5-kt increase is easily within NHC’s statistical range of intensity forecast skill. After landfall occurs, Rick should rapidly weaken due to the hurricane’s relatively slow forward motion over the very rugged terrain of south-central and central Mexico. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if the hurricane dissipated sooner than indicated in the official intensity forecast. However, very heavy rainfall causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides will still continue well after Rick dissipates as a tropical cyclone owing to persistent, moist southerly onshore flow being lifted by the mountainous topography.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Rick is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico by late Monday morning, bringing life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds within a portion of the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.
  • 2. Rick is expected to continue bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the southern coast of Mexico from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
  • 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to spread across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 16.8N 101.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco,MX)
 12H  25/1200Z 17.7N 101.9W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WNW Acapulco,MX)
 24H  26/0000Z 18.7N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW La Nolasca,MX)
 36H  26/1200Z 19.6N 102.9W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE Santa María del Oro,MX)
 48H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 24, 2021 

Rick has changed little in organization since last night, with an 80-100 n mi wide Central Dense Overcast surrounded by some convective banding features. The intensity estimate is held at 75 kt for this advisory based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with objective ADT numbers from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow has become less well-defined over the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, suggestive of some south-southeasterly shear.

Center fixes indicate that the hurricane continues its fairly slow northward motion at around 355/5 kt. Rick should move northward to north-northwestward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge over Mexico, and the track guidance shows a slight increase in forward speed during the next day or so. The global models show a slight building of a mid-level ridge to the northwest of Rick in about 36 hours which could cause the track to bend more to the left after landfall. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and is also very close to the latest NOAA corrected-consensus, HCCA, prediction.

Although Rick has been in a seemingly conducive environment for strengthening, the hurricane has not intensified much. This reminds us of our limited understanding of tropical cyclone intensity change. Nonetheless, since Rick should remain over warm waters and in a fairly moist mid-level atmospheric environment before reaching the coast, the official forecast continues to call for some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. When the center nears the coast, some increase in southwesterly shear and the interaction with the mountainous land mass of southern Mexico could cause some weakening. After landfall, the cyclone will weaken rapidly and the system may lose its identity sooner than shown in this forecast.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Rick is forecast to strengthen today and reach the coast of southern Mexico tonight or early Monday, bringing life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds within a portion of the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.
  • 2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico beginning today from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
  • 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan today, and could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 16.1N 101.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco,MX)
 12H  25/0000Z 16.9N 101.9W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WNW Acapulco,MX)
 24H  25/1200Z 18.1N 102.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Los Coyotes,MX)
 36H  26/0000Z 19.2N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Tepalcatepec,MX)
 48H  26/1200Z 20.4N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Jerónimo,MX)
 60H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 23, 2021 

Rick appears to have stopped strengthening for the moment. The eye seen earlier in visible imagery has disappeared, and recent microwave imagery shows that the eyewall located under the central dense overcast has become less organized. There is an unusually large spread of satellite intensity estimates from 60-90 kt, and based on the satellite trends since the earlier reconnaissance aircraft left the storm, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt. Since Rick is in a low shear environment and has excellent cirrus outflow, it is unclear why the system has stopped intensifying.

Rick has slowed its forward motion a little and is now moving 340/4 kt. The hurricane is expected to move slowly north-northwestward to northward during the next couple of days as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge extending westward from Mexico. There has been little change in the forecast guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is basically the same as the previous forecast through 36 h. After that, the new track is a little of the west of the previous track. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will make landfall along the coast of Mexico near or just after the 36 h point, then move farther inland over Mexico during the subsequent 24 h.

Rick is expected to remain in a favorable environment of light shear and warm sea surface temperatures for the next 18-24 h. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification to begin again in the next few hours and for Rick to reach major hurricane strength in about 24 h. After that, some weakening could occur before landfall due to increasing shear and land interaction with the coastal mountains of Mexico. Rick should rapidly weaken after landfall, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over Mexico by 72 h. Before landfall, the new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates to the forecast.
  • 2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
  • 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 15.3N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco,MX)
 12H  24/1200Z 15.9N 102.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WNW Acapulco,MX)
 24H  25/0000Z 16.8N 102.1W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WNW Papanoa,MX,MX)
 36H  25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Las Peñas,MX)
 48H  26/0000Z 19.3N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Alotitlán,MX)
 60H  26/1200Z 20.8N 104.2W   20 KT  25 MPH - Depression (ENE La Presa,MX)
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23, 2021 

Rick continues to quickly become better organized on satellite images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast surrounded by a well-defined convective band wrapping almost completely around the circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 kt at around 1200 UTC and with the steady strengthening trend underway, the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt. Upper-outflow is prominent over all quadrants of the cyclone. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rick later today to provide additional intensity and structure information.

Latest high-resolution visible satellite images indicate that the hurricane is moving a little faster toward the north-northwest, or at about 345/6 kt. Rick is expected to move between north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days. There continues to be significant spread in the track guidance models with the GFS being the easternmost and fastest, taking Rick on a mainly northward track. The ECMWF is slower and farther west, and some other models are even slower and farther west over southwestern Mexico or just off the coast. The official track forecast is, again, shifted somewhat to the east of the previous one and generally follows the HCCA consensus prediction.

As noted earlier, the atmospheric and oceanic environment for Rick appears to be very conducive for intensification during the next 24-36 hours, with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and high oceanic heat content. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index continues to show a high probability of Rapid Intensification into Sunday, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast, which is near the upper end of the guidance. In 36 to 48 hours, increasing shear and drier air could cause the strengthening trend to end or even result in some weakening.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the southwest coast of Mexico.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. There is larger-than-normal uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of hazardous conditions within the watch area could change significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates to the forecast.
  • 2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
  • 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 14.7N 101.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco,MX)
 12H  24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WNW Acapulco,MX)
 24H  24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WNW Acapulco,MX)
 36H  25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Papanoa,MX)
 48H  25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Las Peñas,MX)
 60H  26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Las Trojitas,MX)
 72H  26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Guadalajara,MX)
 96H  27/1200Z...POST-TROP/INLAND

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 22, 2021 

Satellite imagery indicates that Rick is strengthening. Conventional satellite imagery shows that a central dense overcast has formed, and recently received SSM/IS data indicates that a small convective ring or developing eyewall is present under the overcast. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-45 kt range, and given the structure seen in the microwave imagery the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt. The cyclone currently has excellent upper-level outflow, with apparent multiple outflow channels to the north and the south.

The initial motion is now 295/5 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Rick is weakening as a deep-layer trough moves into the western United States, which will leave Rick on the west side of a low-latitude ridge. This evolution should allow the storm to turn more northward during the next 24-36 h. However, there continues to be significant track spread between the right-side GFS, which has an almost immediate northward motion, and the left-side ECMWF/UKMET, which forecast a much later northward turn. The new track forecast splits the difference between these extremes and follows the consensus models near the center of the guidance envelope. This results in a forecast landfall in Mexico in just over 60 h. However, because of the spread, there is low confidence in the exact time of landfall, and landfall would occur earlier if Rick follows the GFS track.

For the next 36 h, Rick is expected to be in an area of light vertical shear, strong upper-level divergence, and warm sea surface temperatures. This, combined with the structure seen in microwave imagery, suggests rapid strengthening is likely, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices support this. One possible issue is that tongues of dry air may try to entrain into the core, which could slow the development rate. After 36 h, increasing shear and a drier air mass should stop intensification, with the intensity guidance suggesting some weakening before the system makes landfall in Mexico. Rapid weakening should occur over the mountains of Mexico after landfall. The new intensity forecast has higher intensities over the previous forecast and now calls for Rick to reach a peak intensity of 90 kt, which could be conservative. The new forecast is along the upper edge of the intensity guidance until landfall, and it is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Rick is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the southwest coast of Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible within the Hurricane Watch area from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo. There is larger-than-normal uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of hazardous conditions within the watch area could change significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates to the forecast.
  • 2. Rick could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
  • 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday Night, and could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 13.4N 101.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco,MX)
 12H  23/1200Z 14.0N 101.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco,MX)
 24H  24/0000Z 14.8N 102.1W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco,MX)
 36H  24/1200Z 15.5N 102.4W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco,MX)
 48H  25/0000Z 16.4N 102.8W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco,MX)
 60H  25/1200Z 17.7N 103.2W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Playa Azul,MX)
 72H  26/0000Z 19.4N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Tonila,MX)
 96H  27/0000Z 24.0N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE San Atenógenes,MX)
120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 22, 2021 

Over the past 24 h, the convective organization has steadily increased in association with the area of low pressure to the southwest of southern Mexico. Overnight, an ASCAT overpass showed that the system still lacked a well-defined low-level center. However, since that time visible satellite imagery reveals that the disturbance has become much better organized and that a tropical cyclone has formed. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB were T-2.0/30 kt, and therefore 30 kt is the initial advisory intensity.

The tropical depression is moving 280/9 kt to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge. A deep-layer trough is forecast to dig southeastward toward the western United States this weekend and early next week, which should create a weakness in the ridge to the north of the cyclone. This would cause the depression to slow its forward motion and turn northwest or north-northwest towards this weakness. There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance beyond 24 h, as the various models have different solutions as to how abrupt of a turn to the right the cyclone will make in response to the change in the steering flow. The NHC track forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA, and the TVCE guidance. Based on the current NHC forecast track, the cyclone would be nearing the coast of southwestern Mexico in 72 h, and inland by 96 h. However, due to the larger-than-normal model spread beyond 24 h, that portion of the forecast track is not particularly of high confidence.

The cyclone is expected to be within an ideal environment for strengthening over the next couple of days, with very little vertical wind shear, a moist airmass, and sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees C. Therefore, steady intensification is indicated by all of the model guidance through 60 h. There is some weakening indicated by the models at 72 h, around the time the system would be nearing the coast of Mexico, which could be due to some dry air entraining into the cyclone’s circulation. The NHC intensity forecast is near the IVCN consensus solution through 72 h but below HCCA. Beyond landfall, the intensity forecast is near the Decay-SHIPS prediction. It should be noted that the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance indicates a greater than 60 percent chance of a 55-kt increase in strength over the next 60 h and 65 kt over the next 72 h.

Based on the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii, Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches may be issued for a portion of the southwestern Mexico coast as early as tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 12.7N 100.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Acapulco,MX)
 12H  23/0000Z 13.0N 101.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Acapulco,MX)
 24H  23/1200Z 13.9N 101.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Acapulco,MX)
 36H  24/0000Z 14.6N 102.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco,MX)
 48H  24/1200Z 15.3N 102.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Acapulco,MX)
 60H  25/0000Z 16.2N 103.1W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Lázaro Cárdenas,MX)
 72H  25/1200Z 17.3N 103.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Lázaro Cárdenas,MX)
 96H  26/1200Z 19.8N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Tonaya,MX)
120H  27/1200Z 22.0N 104.3W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE El Encino,MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 21, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better organized during the last 24 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward near or just offshore the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 21, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a few hundred miles of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure located just to the southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward near or just offshore the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Oct 21, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of disturbed weather continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward near or just offshore the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of disturbed weather continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward near or just offshore the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Oct 20, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of disturbed weather continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward near or just offshore the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 19, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador continues to produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward near or just off the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 19, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. An area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is producing poorly organized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward near or just off the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 18, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. 1. An area of disturbed weather is located to the south of Central America. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward near or just south of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Oct 18, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Article Resources:

Video: Sarah Keith-Lucas, Hurricane Rick makes landfall in Mexico, Monday 25/10/2021