Tropical Storm Odette

Post Tropical Storm Odette Track 1700 Hours September 18 2021
Post Tropical Storm Odette Track 1700 Hours September 18 2021

Tropical Storm Odette NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sat Sep 18, 2021 (see Saturday video below)

Odette appears to have completed extratropical transition, perhaps a little earlier than the global models want to admit. The cyclone has developed a frontal structure similar to that of a bent back occlusion, with cold-air stratocumulus clouds advecting eastward to the south of the center behind the trailing cold front. In addition, the remaining deep convection is closer to the system’s triple point than multiple-swirled center of circulation. The initial intensity is highly uncertain since all three ASCAT instruments completely missed the area where the strongest winds were likely to have been occurring, and it is held at 40 kt based on continuity.

The post-tropical cyclone has turned to the east-northeast and is moving a little faster–now with a motion of 060/16 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 24 hours while Odette is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After 24 hours, Odette is expected to detach from the prevailing flow, which will cause the cyclone to slow down and meander southeast of Newfoundland by days 3 through 5. The track guidance has shifted slightly southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend and continues to hedge toward a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Now that Odette is extratropical, global models indicate that baroclinic forcing should support strengthening and expanding of the gale-force wind field during the next couple of days. During this evolution, the strongest winds will also migrate to the northern and western side of the circulation. The frontal low is expected to occlude in about 3 days, coincident with the beginning of its meandering motion, and that occlusion process should cause a slow weakening of the winds through the end of the forecast period. One caveat is that some of the models have been hinting that the occluded low could redevelop deep convection near the center and transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone, but there has not been enough consistency among the guidance to explicitly make that forecast. If the system’s forecast track continues to shift southward toward warmer waters on days 3 through 5, that scenario could become a stronger possibility.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odette.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 39.1N  65.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Atlantic City,NJ)
 12H  19/0600Z 40.5N  62.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Atlantic City,NJ)
 24H  19/1800Z 41.9N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Atlantic City,NJ)
 36H  20/0600Z 42.3N  54.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Atlantic City,NJ)
 48H  20/1800Z 41.8N  51.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Atlantic City,NJ)
 60H  21/0600Z 40.7N  48.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Atlantic City,NJ)
 72H  21/1800Z 40.0N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Atlantic City,NJ)
 96H  22/1800Z 41.4N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Atlantic City,NJ)
120H  23/1800Z 43.2N  48.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Atlantic City,NJ)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18, 2021  

Strong shear of about 30 kt from the west-southwest continues to push all of Odette’s deep convection well to the east of the surface center. The center itself lacks some definition, with multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common point. Odette is well on its way through the extratropical transition process, with cold air advection noted on the west side of the circulation, and a band of overcast clouds on the north side of the developing warm front. We’re awaiting some new ASCAT data, which should arrive soon, and for now the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on continuity.

Odette is being picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies, and it is moving a little faster toward the northeast, or 055/15 kt. The cyclone should turn to the east-northeast and accelerate further later today, but then a significant slow down is expected on days 3 through 5 when Odette detaches from the mid-latitude flow and meanders to the southeast of Newfoundland. In contrast to yesterday, the global models are in much better agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has been hedged in the direction of the GFEX consensus aids, since the GFS and ECMWF global models should have a good handle on the behavior of an extratropical cyclone.

The global models vary slightly on when extratropical transition will be complete, but the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it should happen by this evening or tonight. Baroclinic forcing will likely be the main contributor to Odette’s expected strengthening over the next few days, and the intensity models, including the GFS and ECMWF global models, have been consistent in showing the peak winds reaching about 55 kt in 36-48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to occlude and lose its upper-air support in about 48 hours, which should lead to gradual weakening through the end of the 5-day forecast period.

Odette’s wind field is expected to expand significantly during the next few days while the system becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 38.5N  67.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cape May,NJ)
 12H  19/0000Z 40.0N  64.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE New Ork,NY)
 24H  19/1200Z 41.8N  59.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne,NS Canada)
 36H  20/0000Z 42.7N  56.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Sydney,NS Canada)
 48H  20/1200Z 42.8N  53.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)
 60H  21/0000Z 42.2N  50.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)
 72H  21/1200Z 41.5N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)
 96H  22/1200Z 41.3N  48.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)
120H  23/1200Z 42.7N  48.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 17, 2021 

Satellite images indicate that west-southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Odette. Deep convection has been separating from the low-level circulation, and the closest area of thunderstorms is now more than 100 miles east of the center. The circulation is rather broad, but there is a clear center a couple of hundred miles off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. A very recent ASCAT pass showed some stronger winds in the thunderstorms more than a couple of hundred miles east of the low-level center, but its not clear if those winds are reliable and representative of the storm’s true intensity. Hopefully more scatterometer data with be available soon to better assess Odette’s strength.

Although it appears that Odette has been meandering lately, a 12-hour average yields a northeastward motion at about 9 kt. The storm is expected to move faster northeastward or east-northeastward off the northeast U.S. and Atlantic Canada coasts this weekend as it moves in the mid-latitude flow. After that time, the models show a significant slow down as the cyclone cuts off from the progressive flow to the south or southeast of Newfoundland. Although there is quite a bit of spread in the models from days 3-5, almost all of the guidance shows the storm stalling by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. This forecast still lies to the north of the consensus aids, however.

Odette is already beginning the process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone, and it will likely complete the transition by Saturday night when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream Current and merging with an approaching trough. The cyclone is likely to reach its peak intensity as an extratropical storm in 48-60 hours when the baroclinic dynamics are most favorable. Gradual weakening seems likely beyond that time. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance.

As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this weekend, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 36.4N  71.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Virginia Beach,VA)
 12H  18/1200Z 37.8N  69.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City,MD)
 24H  19/0000Z 39.4N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Long Island,NY)
 36H  19/1200Z 41.0N  61.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Nantucket,MA)
 48H  20/0000Z 42.3N  57.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne,NS Canada)
 60H  20/1200Z 43.4N  53.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Sydney,NS Canada)
 72H  21/0000Z 43.8N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)
 96H  22/0000Z 44.3N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)
120H  23/0000Z 44.8N  46.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17, 2021 

The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep convection. This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western side of the circulation. Although the convection is being sheared off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center, thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with 35-kt winds.

With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt. Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now, the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

Odette’s transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already underway. The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear strengthening to near 30 kt. The global models suggest that Odette should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in intensity in 48-60 hours. The low is then likely to occlude by day 3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is indicated in the official forecast.

Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 36.7N  71.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Virginia Beach,VA)
 12H  18/0600Z 38.3N  69.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City,MD)
 24H  18/1800Z 39.9N  65.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Long Island,NY)
 36H  19/0600Z 41.6N  61.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne,NS Canada)
 48H  19/1800Z 43.6N  57.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Sydney,NS Canada)
 60H  20/0600Z 45.0N  52.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)
 72H  20/1800Z 46.0N  49.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)
 96H  21/1800Z 47.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)
120H  22/1800Z 47.5N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St.John's,NF Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 16, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located near the central coast of Louisiana.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly less organized in association with a tropical wave located a little more than 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is still likely to form late this week or this weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased this morning over the eastern portion of a broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is still likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves northward to north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week and this weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. Showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave that will move off the west coast of Africa today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual development over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 15, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Nicholas, located over southwestern Louisiana.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. A low pressure system located about midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda is producing poorly organized shower activity. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system this afternoon reported that the circulation was disorganized and that the strongest winds were well to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.
  • 3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 15, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near the Texas/Louisiana border.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near Port Arthur, Texas.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.
  • 2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.
  • 3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa toward the end of the week. Environment conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 14, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas coastal plain near Houston.

  • 1. A tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system is located about 400 miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next day or two a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is forecast thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 13, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located near the central Texas coast.

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by later this week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is expected to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 13, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico.

  • 1. A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 12, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance as watches may be required for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and Texas later this morning or this afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the system this morning. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across those coastal areas through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are decreasing while the system moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. By the middle of the week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. This disturbance could bring locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days. After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal ending any further development chance. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 4. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.
  • 5. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

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Video: Saturday tropical update: Tropical Storm Odette and 2 areas to watch