Tropical Storm Olaf

Post Tropical Storm Olaf Track 0300 Hours September 11 2021
Post Tropical Storm Olaf Track 0300 Hours September 11 2021

Tropical Storm Olaf Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm OlafNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11, 2021

Olaf has been without deep convection for about the last 18 hours, and it is therefore being designated as a remnant low. A scatterometer pass from several hours ago still showed winds of 25-30 kt occurring to the north of the center, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Weakening is expected during the next few days while the remnant low traverses waters of about 25 degrees Celsius and through a very dry air mass. Global model fields show the circulation opening up into a trough anywhere between 2 and 6 days from now, so as a compromise the official forecast indicates this happening by day 4, but it’s likely to be sooner than that.

Olaf is now losing latitude and moving south of due west, or 260/5 kt. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge to the north is expected to force the remnant low to the west-southwest and southwest during the next several days.

In fact, the models have been trending toward a more pronounced loss of latitude, and this final NHC track forecast has been shifted southward from the previous advisory–close to the TVCE model consensus but not nearly as far south as the HCCA aid.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 24.4N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 12H  11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 24H  12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 36H  12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 48H  13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W   15 KT  15 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 60H  13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W   15 KT  15 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 72H  14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W   15 KT  15 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10, 2021

The satellite presentation of Olaf has significantly degraded over the past several hours after the center moved across the southern portion of Baja California Sur overnight. The system’s organized convection has collapsed, and infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud top temperatures are rapidly warming near the estimated center position. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, which now makes Olaf a tropical storm. This estimate may still be generous, but limited surface observations and radar data make it difficult to confidently assess the intensity. Hopefully, scatterometer data this afternoon will provide more insight into changes in Olaf’s surface wind field.

The tropical storm has slowed down a bit since last night, and its estimated motion is northwest (310 degrees) at 9 kt. Recent microwave imagery suggests the center of Olaf is just offshore the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, and the cyclone is likely to move roughly parallel to the coast today. Then, a strong mid-level high pressure ridge centered over the southern Rockies is expected to build westward to the north of Olaf. This ridge should turn Olaf toward the west by tonight, and then toward the southwest through early next week. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous forecast once again, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids.

Olaf is likely to continue rapidly weakening during the next couple of days. In the short-term, its proximity to the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula will disrupt its ability to sustain organized convection. As Olaf moves away from land, the cyclone will encounter decreasing sea-surface temperatures and very dry mid-level air, which should expedite its transition into a post-tropical cyclone. In fact, the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery show Olaf becoming completely devoid of convection within the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows more rapid weakening than the previous one, primarily based on recent satellite trends and the lower initial intensity. The official forecast remains below the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, which are inflated by the SHIPS and LGEM models that fail to weaken Olaf during the next 24 h.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Olaf is forecast to move along the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula today, with tropical storm conditions continuing over southern portions of Baja California Sur through this evening. These winds should diminish tonight as Olaf continues weakening and turns westward away from land.
  • 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 24.1N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 12H  11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 24H  11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 36H  12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 48H  12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 60H  13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 72H  13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 96H  14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
120H  15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09, 2021

Imagery from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas, along with satellite imagery, indicates that the eye of Olaf is about to make landfall near San Jose del Cabo, and that hurricane conditions in the northwestern eyewall have already spread onshore. The eyewall cloud tops have cooled during the past few hours, and the objective intensity estimate from the CIMSS ADT technique has increased to 90 kt. Based on this and an increase in the organization of the eyewall on the Cabo radar imagery, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt.

The initial motion is 325/10. Olaf should continue moving northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, with the center moving near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during this time. After that, a mid-level ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States should cause Olaf to turn westward, and this should be followed by a southwestward motion as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by low-level northeasterly flow. The forecast guidance has changed little since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

A gradual weakening is expected during the first 24 h as Olaf interacts with the Baja California peninsula. When the cyclone turns westward after 24 h, it should move over colder water and into a drier air mass. This combination should cause the convection to decay, with the system becoming a post-tropical low by 60 h and a remnant low by 72 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor changes from the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions have begun within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area tonight and will spread northward through Friday.
  • 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 23.0N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Palmilla,MX)
 12H  10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW La Paz,MX)
 24H  11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 36H  11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 48H  12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 60H  12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 72H  13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
 96H  14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)
120H  15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW San Carlos,MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL  900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09, 2021

Recent microwave imagery shows that Olaf’s structure has improved considerably during the past 6 hours, and it now has well-defined eye. The eye is also now evident in radar imagery from Cabo San Lucas. Although an eye is not yet evident in infrared or visible imagery, satellite intensity estimates had increased and supported an intensity of 60-65 kt at 1200 UTC. Given the continued impressive satellite appearance since then, the estimated intensity is 65 kt for this advisory, making Olaf a hurricane.

Olaf has a microwave ring structure that is known to indicate intensification in the short term. The wind shear that previously affected the hurricane seems to have lessened and the environment should also support further strengthening today. The hurricane is therefore forecast to quickly intensify during the next 12 h or so while it approaches the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. After that, interaction with land and cold sea surface temperatures should cause the cyclone to quickly weaken over the weekend. Olaf is forecast to become post-tropical in about 60 h as it moves farther away from land. The NHC intensity forecast is above the previous advisory, and is above most of the guidance through 24 h. Beyond that, there have been only slight adjustments to the official intensity forecast, which is based on the multi- model consensus.

The track forecast has shifted closer to the southern Baja California peninsula. In line with the intensity forecast, the NHC forecast now slightly favors the stronger GFS and regional hurricane models, compared to the weaker ECMWF, but is still near the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Olaf is moving north-northeast but should turn northwestward later today, steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the western United States. The models with a stronger hurricane show Olaf turning slightly slower, and bring the center very near or even over Baja California Sur tonight. As Olaf weakens it should begin to be steered by lower-level flow, which will cause it to eventually turn westward and then southwestward as it moves away from land early next week.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Olaf is forecast to pass very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday, and hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, and preparations should be rushed to completion.
  • 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 21.2N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Puerto Vallarta,MX)
 12H  10/0000Z 22.2N 109.2W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 24H  10/1200Z 23.3N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW El Pescadero,MX)
 36H  11/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Rancho Datilari,MX)
 48H  11/1200Z 24.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Puerto Chale,MX)
 60H  12/0000Z 23.8N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Puerto Chale,MX)
 72H  12/1200Z 23.2N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Todos Santos,MX)
 96H  13/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
120H  14/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 08, 2021

Olaf appears to be gradually strengthening. Deep convection has been increasing over the center, and banding features are becoming a little more pronounced. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 35 to 45 kt. Since the system appears to be better organized from the time of the ASCAT pass earlier today, the initial intensity is nudged up and set near the high end of the estimates at 45 kt.

Satellite images and recent microwave data suggest that the center of Olaf is a little to the east of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 335/6 kt. Olaf is expected to move generally northwestward for another 24 to 36 hours, which should bring the system just off the coast of southern Baja California Sur during that time. There is some spread in the models on how close the storm will get to the coastline, with the GFS to the east of the official forecast and the UKMET and ECMWF to the west and farther offshore. Beyond 36 hours, Olaf is expected to be located to the south of a strong mid-level ridge and that will cause a turn to the west-northwest away from Mexico. The NHC track forecast is adjusted again to the east of the previous one in the short term and then to the south of the previous one at the longer lead times. The new track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the various consensus aids.

Olaf is located over warm waters, and embedded in a low wind shear and fairly moist environment. These conditions should allow for additional strengthening during the next day or so. Although not explicitly forecast, Olaf could become a hurricane when it is just off the coast of southern Baja California Sur, and a hurricane watch remains in effect for the possibility of those winds occurring on land. By Friday, a combination of cooler waters and a much drier environment should cause steady weakening, and the system is likely to become a remnant low over the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN and IVDR consensus models.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes offshore of the southern portion of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible across that area beginning late Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf.
  • 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 20.0N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta,MX)
 12H  09/1200Z 20.8N 108.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta,MX)
 24H  10/0000Z 21.9N 109.9W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta,MX)
 36H  10/1200Z 22.8N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 48H  11/0000Z 23.4N 113.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 60H  11/1200Z 23.5N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 72H  12/0000Z 23.3N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 96H  13/0000Z 22.6N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
120H  14/0000Z 21.7N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08, 2021

The depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Olaf this morning. A well-defined curved band now wraps over 50 percent around the center of the cyclone, with cloud tops to -80 degrees C. The initial intensity has been raised to 35 kt for this advisory based on the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate and the UW-CIMSS ADT.

Olaf is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist environment for the next 36 hours or so. The only inhibiting factor to strengthening in the short term could be a slight increase in vertical wind shear beginning tonight. In a couple of days, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters and into a drier, much more stable atmospheric environment that favors rapid weakening. These unfavorable conditions should cause Olaf to degenerate into a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast was decreased only slightly from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus. Although the NHC forecast no longer explicitly shows Olaf becoming a hurricane, this could still occur Thursday or Thursday night.

The storm is now moving northwestward at 6 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico. This northwestward motion should continue for a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn west-northwestward as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion is forecast as the cyclone becomes shallow and steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various multi-model consensus tracks. It should be noted that the model solutions that depict a stronger cyclone favor a track slightly more to the north than the NHC forecast, closer to the southern Baja peninsula, while the weaker model solutions lie to the south of the NHC forecast track.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes to the southwest of southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in these areas. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf.
  • 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 18.9N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo,MX)
 12H  09/0000Z 19.6N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta,MX)
 24H  09/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta,MX)
 36H  10/0000Z 21.7N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 48H  10/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 60H  11/0000Z 23.5N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 72H  11/1200Z 23.8N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 96H  12/1200Z 23.7N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
120H  13/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07, 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has changed little in organization during the past several hours. While the system is producing good convective banding in the eastern semicircle, the convection near the center is currently poorly organized, and there is no evidence that the inner core has consolidated. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. A combination of conventional and 37 GHz microwave satellite imagery suggests that the center is farther east than previously thought, so the new initial position is about a half degree east of the previous advisory position.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/5. A large mid-level anticyclone is located over the southwestern United States with a ridge extending southeastward across Mexico. The anticyclone should shift a little eastward during the next few days, with the ridge extending southward across Mexico. This evolution should steer the tropical cyclone generally northwestward for the next several days, followed by a more westward motion as the cyclone weakens over cooler water and is steered by low-level easterly flow. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the consensus models. However, the more eastward initial position required an eastward shift to the forecast track. It should be noted that some erratic motion is possible until the cyclone develops a better-defined inner core.

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening until the system reaches the 26-deg-C SST isotherm in 60-72 h, with the main restraining factor being the current lack of internal organization. The intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast and calls for the depression to become a tropical storm in about 12 h and a hurricane in about 48 h. Steady to rapid weakening is expected after 60-72 h due to the cooler water and dry air entrainment.

The more easterly initial position and the new forecast track require a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Baja California Sur at this time. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo,MX)
 12H  08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo,MX)
 24H  09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta,MX)
 36H  09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta,MX)
 48H  10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 60H  10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 72H  11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 96H  12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
120H  13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07, 2021

Over the past day or so, convection has gradually become better organized in association with the area of low pressure offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is now a large curved band to the east of the center, and outflow is increasing in all quadrants. Based on the improving convective organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. An ASCAT-B overpass a few hours ago indicated the peak winds associated with the depression were 26 kt, and assuming some undersampling, the initial advisory intensity is set at 30 kt.

The depression has been moving slowly west-northwestward today, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. Another ridge is forecast to begin building from the southwestern United States to over northern Mexico tonight, which should turn the cyclone to the northwest. The system should then gradually accelerate through midweek as it gets caught in the flow between this ridge, and a mid- to upper-level trough to its west. By late in the forecast period, a turn to the west is expected as the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The model guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to the various model consensus solutions. It should be noted that based on this track forecast, the center of the cyclone would approach within 120 n mi of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Thursday. Therefore, any deviation in the track to the right would increase the chance for impacts to that area.

There are very favorable environmental conditions around the depression that should allow for strengthening over the next couple of days. The only inhibiting factor for quick strengthening in the short term appears to be the lack of a tight circulation and inner-core convection. Because of this, the NHC intensity forecast is on the lower end of the guidance through the first 24 hours, nearest to the LGEM, as it appears the HWRF/HMON are a bit too aggressive in intensifying the cyclone during that time. By 24 hours, it is assumed that the inner-core will become better established, and faster strengthening is indicated from 24 to 48 hours. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a dry, stable atmospheric environment, which should cause weakening. By this weekend, the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast beyond 24 hours is very near the IVCN consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 18.2N 107.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo,MX)
 12H  08/0600Z 18.4N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo,MX)
 24H  08/1800Z 19.0N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta,MX)
 36H  09/0600Z 20.0N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta,MX)
 48H  09/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 60H  10/0600Z 22.4N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 72H  10/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
 96H  11/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)
120H  12/1800Z 24.5N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Cabo San Lucas,MX)

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