Tropical Storm Felicia

Tropical Depression Felicia Track 1100 Hours July 20 2021
Tropical Depression Felicia Track 1100 Hours July 20 2021

Tropical Storm Felicia Wind Field SpeedTropical Storm FeliciaNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 20, 2021 (See Tuesday 5:00 pm video below)

Convection once again has mostly dissipated near the low-level circulation of Felicia. Without any organized deep convection, the clock is now ticking on its remaining lifespan as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that was recently received at 1709 UTC had a peak wind retrieval of 32-kt just north of the center. Given the lack of convection since that time, as well as the latest Dvorak estimates decreasing further, Felicia is being downgraded to a tropical depression at this time with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. Further weakening is anticipated as Felicia remains in a very dry, stable environment. The depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in the next 12 hours and open up into a trough by the end of the week, well south of Hawaii.

The latest estimated motion is now to the west-southwest at 255/14 kt. The track philosophy has changed little this advisory as a large subtropical ridge will continue to steer Felicia to the west-southwest over the last few days of its life. The latest NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous forecast track as the guidance remains tightly clustered along the forecast track. On this track, Felicia will be crossing into the central Pacific basin within the next few hours.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Felicia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 15.3N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  21/0600Z 14.8N 141.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  21/1800Z 14.3N 144.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  22/0600Z 13.7N 147.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  22/1800Z 13.2N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20, 2021 

After being devoid of deep convection for 9-12 hours overnight, Felicia managed to redevelop a small area of convection near and north of its estimated low-level center. However, this convective activity is poorly-organized and already appears to be waning. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at 1200 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, while the latest objective ADT estimate was T1.5/25 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data and that convection had increased somewhat since that time, the initial intensity is only being lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt for this advisory.

The latest estimated motion continues to be south of due west but a little faster, at 260/14 kt. Felicia is primarily being steered by a large subtropical ridge to its north, which should maintain the cyclone on a west-southwest heading over the remainder of its lifespan. The latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the previous one, but is a touch faster, in agreement with the most recent GFS and ECMWF forecasts. On the latest forecast track, Felicia is expected to move into the central Pacific basin later today, just after 2100 UTC.

Despite the recent small convective burst, Felicia’s large-scale environment remains dominated by moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear within a dry and stable airmass over 25-26 C sea-surface temperatures. Consequently, a good chunk of the deterministic model guidance (e.g., GFS/ECWMF/HWRF) depict Felicia struggling to produce much, if any, additional organized convection near its center. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Felicia weakening into a tropical depression later today and then degenerating into a remnant low by 24 hours, in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. The remnant low is then forecast to open up into a trough while moving well south of the Hawaiian islands by 60 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 15.8N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  21/0000Z 15.3N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  21/1200Z 14.7N 143.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  22/0000Z 14.1N 145.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  22/1200Z 13.6N 148.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Mon Jul 19, 2021

Felicia continues to rapidly weaken over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of around 25 deg C and within a cooler and drier air mass. After an earlier burst of strong convection, all that remains of it is limited to the northeastern quadrant along with cloud tops now having warmed to -55C to -60C. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 45 kt, and that is the intensity assigned for this advisory. Additional weakening is forecast through the remainder of the 72-h forecast period due to the cyclone remaining over SSTs near 25C, westerly vertical wind shear increasing to more than 30 kt by 24 hours, and continued entrainment of drier and cooler low- to mid-level air. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.

The initial motion estimate remains a little south of due west, or 265/13 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to steer Felicia west-southwestward to westward over the next few days until the small cyclone dissipates by 96 hours, if not sooner. Felicia will likely cross into the Central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies between the tightly packed TVCE and NOAA-HCCA track forecast models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 16.1N 134.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  20/1200Z 15.9N 136.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  21/0000Z 15.3N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  22/0000Z 14.2N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  22/1200Z 13.6N 147.5W   15 KT  15 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  23/0000Z 13.0N 150.1W   15 KT  15 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19, 2021

Felicia continues to rapidly weaken as it heads toward the Central Pacific. Satellite images show a shrinking area of deep convection that is now generally confined to the northeast quadrant of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt, and even that seems generous.

The weakening and very compact storm is surrounded by dry mid-level air. This stable environment, cool 25 C SSTs, and increasing wind shear should cause the rapid weakening trend to continue. Felicia is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and a remnant low in a few days when it expected to be in an environment of about 40 kt of northwesterly shear and very dry air, which will likely cause all of the deep convection to dissipate. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, and in line with the majority of the latest guidance.

Felicia is moving westward at about 10 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next several days as Felicia, or its remnants, move in the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level high to its north. The NHC track forecast is just a tad south of the previous one and lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the current forecast, the weakening system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow night.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.3N 132.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Jul 18, 2021 

Felicia continues to decline over water temperatures near or just below 26C. The eye is gradually becoming more difficult to locate in satellite imagery, and the CDO, while already small to begin with, has shrunk in size over the past several hours. A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB suggest that the hurricane has weakened to 90 kt. However, given that environment is not too hostile at the moment, is it reasonable to believe that the vortex of this mature tropical cyclone will take time to spin down despite the degradation in satellite images. Therefore, the initial intensity is being lowered to a perhaps generous 95 kt for this advisory.

The cooler waters alone should continue to take a toll on Felicia over the next couple of days by gradually eroding the deep convection. After 48 h, increasing northwesterly shear should help to inject dry and stable air into what remains of the core of the cyclone. By 96 h, if not sooner, Felicia is expected to have lost all of its deep convection and decay into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one through the first few days of the forecast period due to the rapidly decreasing wind speeds, and is near the ICON intensity consensus model. Thereafter, the NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one.

Felicia continues its 10-kt west-northwestward trek to the south of a subtropical ridge. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Model guidance is in good agreement on the cyclone turning westward by Monday then perhaps west-southwestward later in the forecast period as the ridge expands and becomes oriented NE-SW. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in the middle of the consensus guidance. Based on this track, Felicia should cross over into the central Pacific basin Tuesday night.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 16.3N 130.1W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  19/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  20/0000Z 16.5N 133.8W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  20/1200Z 16.3N 136.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  21/0000Z 15.8N 138.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  21/1200Z 15.3N 141.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  22/0000Z 14.9N 144.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  23/0000Z 14.1N 149.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  24/0000Z 13.3N 155.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 18, 2021 

The satellite presentation of Felicia has degraded since the last advisory. The eye is more cloud-filled, and the eyewall cloud-top temperatures have warmed. A consensus of the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT gives an initial wind speed of 105 kt, which is also close to a wind estimate derived from experimental NESDIS Synthetic Aperture Radar data a few hours ago.

It does seem like this is the beginning of long-heralded steady weakening with less conducive environmental conditions ahead, such as cooler water, higher upper-level shear, along with the loss of the stable annular structure (as suggested by recent microwave data). Thus, the new intensity forecast is considerably lower than the previous one, closest to the intensity consensus IVCN and the NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA. Felicia should be weakening quickly by the time it enters the Central Pacific due to strong shear, and the new forecast decays the cyclone to a remnant low by day 4.

Felicia continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The guidance is fairly locked into a westward turn by Monday, then a west-southwest motion due to the orientation of the subtropical ridge for the rest of the forecast period. While the various aids have changed somewhat, the latest model consensus is quite close to the previous NHC track forecast, so the new forecast is almost the same as the last one, except slightly farther north in the short term.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 16.0N 129.0W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  19/0600Z 16.3N 130.5W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  19/1800Z 16.5N 132.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  20/0600Z 16.3N 134.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  20/1800Z 16.0N 137.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  21/0600Z 15.6N 140.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  21/1800Z 15.0N 142.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  22/1800Z 14.2N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  23/1800Z 13.5N 154.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Jul 18, 2021 

Some changes have been seen with Felicia during the past several hours. The eye is not quite as warm in satellite pictures, and there are banding features present in the eastern semicircle of the hurricane. Overall, Felicia’s previously very symmetric appearance has become a little distorted to the northeast. Both SAB and TAFB give an initial wind estimate of 115 kt, and that value is used for this advisory.

The big question is when will Felicia begin to weaken more significantly. Any environmental changes are fairly subtle during the next couple of days, with somewhat cooler waters and a slight increase in upper-level shear likely. While annular structure tends to be more stable, Felicia is a very small tropical cyclone, and those petite systems usually weaken quickly in marginal environments. Additionally, the latest microwave data has some suggestion of the early stages of an eyewall cycle (although it showed the same thing yesterday without much impact). All of these complex factors lead to this being a low confidence forecast during the next day or two. The new intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one, owing to the recent degradation in structure, but is still above the guidance mean. In about 3 days, much stronger shear should impact Felicia, leading to a quick death near or just after day 4.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn westward by Monday, then move west-southwestward through midweek as Felicia becomes steered by a large ridge across the central Pacific. There is a little more spread in the guidance this morning, partially related to exactly how quickly Felicia weakens. The ECMWF, for instance, shows a faster decrease in wind speed, and is more to the southwest of the other guidance, consistent with the low-level steering flow. The GFS has the system moving slower and a little more poleward due to its stronger depiction of Felicia. The new forecast is slightly weighted toward the GFS solution, near the TCVN consensus, resulting in a small northward adjustment.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 15.7N 128.1W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  19/0000Z 16.1N 129.6W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  19/1200Z 16.3N 131.7W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  20/0000Z 16.4N 133.9W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  20/1200Z 16.2N 136.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  21/0000Z 15.8N 139.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  21/1200Z 15.2N 141.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  22/1200Z 14.2N 146.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sat Jul 17, 2021 

Satellite images indicate that Felicia remains a well-organized hurricane with an annular structure and a clear eye. However, the eye temperature has cooled a bit, along with some eyewall cloud-top warming. Intensity estimates have fallen somewhat, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 120 kt for this advisory.

Gradually cooling SSTs should cause a general weakening trend with Felicia during the next day or so. The rate of weakening should increase sometime Monday due to decreasing instability and a modest rise in upper-level wind shear, which could assist with dry-air entrainment near the inner core. Due to the system’s small size, Felicia could also weaken fairly quickly by Tuesday in these marginal environmental conditions, although this type of scenario is inherently low confidence. The new forecast remains on the high side of the guidance but is reduced from the previous one. By the end of the forecast period, stronger shear should be impacting the system, and hopefully we will be able to say bye Felicia on Thursday.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The hurricane is forecast to turn again toward the west by late Sunday as a mid-level ridge to the north builds slightly. Felicia should then turn west-southwestward early in the work week due to the orientation of an extensive deep-layer ridge centered over the central Pacific. The spread in the track guidance is very low, leading to a high confidence track forecast, and the NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus aids and the last advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 15.2N 126.1W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4(WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  18/1200Z 15.6N 127.5W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4(WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  19/0000Z 16.1N 129.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3(WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  19/1200Z 16.3N 131.5W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  20/0000Z 16.3N 133.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  20/1200Z 16.1N 136.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  21/0000Z 15.6N 138.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  22/0000Z 14.6N 144.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  23/0000Z 13.9N 149.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sat Jul 17, 2021

Felicia provided another surprise early this morning, with a ring of very cold cloud tops (<-70 deg C) developing around the clear eye of the tiny hurricane. The 12Z TAFB Dvorak analysis was T6.5/127 kt and that is the basis for the 125 kt intensity estimate. Cloud tops have warmed ever so slightly since 12Z, but the hurricane’s satellite presentation remains very impressive.

Due to the higher initial intensity, the first 36 h of the intensity forecast has been increased as well. Slight weakening is anticipated by tonight as Felicia begins to move over marginally cool SSTs. Internal factors such as eyewall replacement cycles are also possible with any major hurricane and could result in shorter-term intensity changes that are not reflected in the forecast. By around 48 h, Felicia is forecast to move over waters below 26 deg C, and some models like the ECMWF and HWRF also indicate it could begin to encounter less favorable upper-level winds. If that solution bears out, Felicia could weaken even faster than indicated since the surrounding environment is fairly dry and the hurricane’s small size makes it particularly susceptible to rapid intensity changes. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance envelope through 36 h and near the intensity consensus by the end of the 5-day period. It is worth noting that confidence is high that Felicia will weaken dramatically by the end of the forecast period, but considerable uncertainty remains in the details of exactly when and at what rate it will happen.

Only a slight northward adjustment was made to the track forecast. Felicia is currently moving westward near 7 kt, and that general motion will likely continue today. The dynamical guidance is in good agreement that small fluctuations in ridging to the north of Felicia should allow the hurricane to turn west-northwestward by Sunday, and then back toward the west in about 48 h. An extensive deep-layer ridge centered over the central Pacific should then cause Felicia to gradually accelerate west-southwestward through the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is near but just south of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 14.6N 124.6W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4(WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  18/0000Z 14.8N 125.8W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4(WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  18/1200Z 15.2N 127.6W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3(WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  19/0000Z 15.7N 129.6W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3(WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  19/1200Z 16.0N 131.6W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  20/0000Z 16.0N 133.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 72H  20/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  21/1200Z 15.0N 141.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  22/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 16, 2021

Felicia has continued to strengthen late this morning and early afternoon, with a very distinct clear eye embedded in the center of a smooth CDO feature. Although objective satellite classifications have plateaued at 105-107 kt over the past several hours, likely due to some warming of the surrounding cloud tops around the eye, the 1800Z subjective intensity estimate from TAFB remained at T6.0 or 115 kt. Internal NHC satellite analyses concur with this estimate. Based on the persistent TAFB classification and the pronounced eye feature noted in visible imagery, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt, making Felicia a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Felicia is moving westward again or 265/08 kt. The global and regional models maintain the strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane for the next 120 hours, with only minor track deviations from a due westward motion expected throughout the forecast period. The bulk of the latest model guidance has shifted noticeably northward or to the right of the previous forecast track, and the new NHC advisory track has been shifted in that direction as well. However, the new track forecast was not shifted as far north as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and instead lies near the southern edge of the track guidance envelope.

Some fluctuations in intensity will still be possible during the next 12 h as the hurricane traverses a series of small cool and warm ocean currents or eddies. However, by late tonight or early Saturday, Felicia is expected to begin a gradual weakening trend due to cool ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane, along with intermittent entrainment of very dry mid-level air. However, the rate of weakening is forecast to be slower than normal due to expected low vertical wind shear (<10 kt) conditions and Felicia’s stable, annular structure. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance, which is above most of the consensus and statistical models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 14.9N 122.4W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4(WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  17/0600Z 14.8N 123.6W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  17/1800Z 14.8N 125.2W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  18/0600Z 15.0N 127.0W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  18/1800Z 15.3N 128.9W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  19/0600Z 15.4N 130.8W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 72H  19/1800Z 15.4N 132.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  20/1800Z 14.7N 136.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  21/1800Z 13.8N 141.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16, 2021

Corrected 24-hour forecast position

Compact Hurricane Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning with a well-defined, warm (>15C) clear eye now evident in infrared satellite imagery. However, the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed by almost 10 deg C during the past several hours, and a 1022Z ATMS microwave satellite pass showed the inner core convection a little less organized. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T6.0/115 kt and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT over the past couple of hours have averaged T5.7/105 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt, and just below category 4 strength, for this advisory based on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and the slightly degraded aforementioned convective features.

Felicia is moving west-southwestward or 255/07 kt. Strong deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Felicia moving west-southwestward for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the global and regional models all show the ridge relaxing somewhat, which should allow Felicia to move more westward in the 24-120-hour forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is essentially on top of and just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Some additional slight strengthening could occur this morning due to low vertical shear and warm SSTs conditions, with Felicia briefly becoming a category 4 hurricane. However, the warm water beneath the powerful hurricane isn’t very deep as indicated by upper-ocean heat content values currently only around 5 units, which suggests that cold upwelling could begin at any time during the next 12 hours. Ocean heat content values are forecast to remain below 10 units from 24-96 hours, and decreasing to less than zero thereafter. Thus, slow weakening is forecast to begin by 24 h and continue through the remainder of the forecast period despite the favorable low (<10 kt) vertical wind shear regime that Felicia will be moving through. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus intensity models NOAA-HCCA and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 15.0N 121.6W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  17/1200Z 14.6N 124.3W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 72H  19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16, 2021 

Tiny Felicia has continued to intensify tonight. Earlier SSMIS microwave imagery showed that the hurricane was maintaining a closed circular eyewall and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye on infrared satellite have continued to cool below -70 C. Scatterometer data from an ASCAT-A pass at 0418 UTC also indicated the small size of Felicia’s wind field, with peak 34-kt wind radii only extending roughly 50 nm from the center in the northern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 0600 UTC were both T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate was T5.4/100 kt. A blend of these intensity estimates support a current intensity of 100 kt, making Felicia the first major hurricane in the East Pacific basin this year.

Felicia now appears to be moving slightly south of due west with the latest estimated motion at 260/8 kt. Now that the strongest deep-layer ridging is positioned northwest of the hurricane, a west-southwestward motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Afterwards, a narrow ridge axis shifts back north of Felicia, and the cyclone is expected to resume a more due westward motion between 24 to 72 hours. In the latter portion of the track forecast, the hurricane will come under the influence of a stronger mid-level ridge located north of Hawaii, resulting in another leftward turn by the end of the forecast period. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement for the majority of the forecast. The official NHC forecast is a touch south of the previous track and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

Additional short-term intensification is forecast while Felicia remains in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear between 5-10 kt and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) between 27-28 C. Thereafter, mid-level humidity values are forecasted by the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance to drop below 50 percent as SSTs also gradually decrease. However, both deep-layer (200-850 hPa) and mid-level vertical wind shear are expected to remain light and easterly through at least the next 72 hours. Light easterly shear in combination with marginally warm SSTs are common environmental factors associated with major hurricanes that develop annular characteristics, and these storms are known to weaken at a slower than typical rate. To account for this possibility, the intensity forecast only shows very gradual weakening between 24 to 48 hours which is above the majority of the intensity guidance but lies closest to CTCI (COAMPS-TC). Afterwards, Felicia’s weakening rate is forecast to increase as SSTs cool further, and northwesterly vertical-wind shear impinges on the cyclone by the end of the forecast period. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is closer to the mean of the intensity guidance and is near the HCCA intensity consensus aid at 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 15.1N 121.0W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  17/0600Z 14.6N 123.4W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  17/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  18/0600Z 14.6N 126.8W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  18/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 72H  19/0600Z 14.8N 130.5W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  20/0600Z 14.6N 134.2W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15, 2021 

Satellite imagery indicates that Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this evening. Infrared temperatures have significantly warmed within the eye during the past couple hours, and deep convection within the eyewall has become more symmetric. A closed ring of infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -65 to -70 deg Celsius now completely surrounds the eye of Felicia. Based on these current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt for this advisory. This lies between the TAFB subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of 90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates of around 100 kt.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear along Felicia’s forecast track are expected to allow for some additional strengthening in the short-term, especially since dry air in the surrounding environment has had minimal impact on the cyclone’s intensification up to this point. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward and now brings Felicia to major hurricane status (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) within 12 h. The NHC forecast remains higher than the guidance consensus through the first 72 h, then generally follows the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to slowly weaken this weekend within a drier, more stable mid-level environment. However, the forecast track keeps Felicia south of the 26 deg C isotherm, which should allow the cyclone to maintain its hurricane intensity through much of the forecast period.

Felicia is still moving almost due west at around 8 kt. As the steering ridge becomes positioned to the northwest of Felicia, the cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward during the next day or so. Then, Felicia is forecast to resume a more westward motion for the next several days as the cyclone moves to the south of a subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered through much of the period. The official NHC forecast is adjusted just a bit slower and slightly farther north than the previous one, bringing it closer to the usually reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 15.2N 120.2W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 72H  19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15, 2021

The evolution of Felicia’s satellite imagery since last night suggested that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred, and recently has completed. For the past several hours, an eye has been occasionally appearing while surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80 degrees C. With this eye feature becoming somewhat clearer, the corresponding Dvorak-T numbers have increased. Based on a blend of these latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to 85 kt.

Felicia continues to move west, or 270/09kt. The ridge currently to the north of the hurricane is forecast to shift the northwest of Felicia by tonight, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple of days. By early next week, the hurricane should once again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance.

The small inner-core structure of Felicia is well established, and the cyclone should remain in an environment of low shear and over warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 12-24 h. This should allow for some additional strengthening. By late Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains slightly above the bulk of the guidance through 24 h due to the aforementioned favorable conditions currently in place for strengthening. Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 15.2N 119.4W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 72H  18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15, 2021 

Earlier this morning, an eye began to appear in satellite imagery. However, since that time the convection has eroded slightly over the southwestern portion of the circulation, making that feature somewhat obscured. This could be a sign that an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway. Although the eye is not readily apparent in satellite, Felicia has a well-defined inner core structure with persistent and very cold cloud tops surrounding much of the center. The Dvorak T-numbers continue to rise, and the latest blend of the available values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT support increasing the initial intensity to 80 kt for this advisory.

Felicia continues to make a gradual turn to the left, and the initial motion is now 270/10 kt. The ridge currently to the north of the hurricane is foreast to shift to its northwest over the next day or so, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple of days. By early next week, Felicia should once again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance.

Rapid intensification (RI) has continued, and Felicia’s winds have increased by 50 kt since early yesterday morning. Aside from a possible pause in the cyclone’s intensification in the near-term due to the ERC, the environment of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have been supporting the strengthening should continue around the cyclone over the next 24 h. By late Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the bulk of the guidance through 24 h due to the RI factors currently in place. Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 15.2N 118.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 72H  18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 15, 2021 

Overnight, Felicia has maintained a small, but circular central dense overcast near its estimated center. A fortuitous GMI microwave pass at 0545 UTC depicted a well-defined mid-level eye on the 89 GHz channel, with deep convection wrapped three-fourths around the south and east sides of Felicia’s center. Since that time, the storm’s infrared satellite structure has improved further, with a distinct warm spot apparent near Felicia’s center with colder than -70 C cloud tops wrapping around this feature. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 0600 UTC, but a more recent objective ADT estimate was up to T4.4/75 kt. Given the additional improvement seen on geostationary satellite imagery since 0600 UTC, the latest initial intensity was raised to 75 kt this advisory, making Felicia a hurricane.

Felicia appears to be starting a leftward turn, with the latest estimated motion at 280/10 kt. Over the next 24-36 hours, a weak upper-level trough currently centered over Baja California is forecast to cutoff and shift the mid-level ridging, currently north of Felicia, to the northwest ahead of the cyclone. This ridge reorientation is expected to result in a slow west-southwestward motion of Felicia beginning in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, the mid-level ridging becomes reestablished north of the cyclone, allowing a resumption of a more westward motion after 60 hours. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement, but has shifted a bit more southward this cycle. The official NHC track forecast is also a little south of the previous forecast, blending the latest track forecasts from the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

Felicia has rapidly intensified over the last 24 hours from a tropical depression to a category one hurricane. In the short term, Felicia remains in an environment of low (5-10 kt) vertical wind shear and warm (27-28 C) sea surface temperatures. Now that the hurricane appears to have developed an inner core with convection axis-symmetric around it, additional intensification is expected with a new peak intensity of 95 kt forecasted in 24 to 36 hours. The first part of the NHC intensity forecast is on the upper end of the intensity guidance due to the higher initial intensity, and also given the possibility rapid intensification continues, as suggested by SHIPS-RII guidance, which gives Felicia a one-in-three chance of a 25 kt intensity increase over the next 24 hours. Afterwards, while vertical wind shear is expected to remain low, mid-level relative humidity is expected to decrease, leaving the small tropical cyclone susceptible to dry-air intrusions as sea surface temperatures also gradually decrease. A combination of these environmental factors are expected to lead to gradual weakening beginning after 36 hours through the end of the forecast. The latter portion of the NHC intensity forecast is in better agreement with the intensity guidance and closely follows the HCCA consensus aid.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 15.2N 117.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 72H  18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14, 2021 

Felicia has maintained a healthy satellite appearance today, with a symmetric central dense overcast and continued bursts of deep convection near and over its center. The upper-level outflow on the eastern side of the circulation appears somewhat limited, perhaps suggestive of some easterly wind shear. A mid-level eye was noted in earlier microwave data, but unfortunately no recent passes have sampled Felicia to help assess how the structure has changed. A blend of the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt) supports an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher than the objective ADT and SATCON estimates of around 50-55 kt.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, but the cyclone is forecast to turn westward and then west-southwestward during the next couple of days in response to a reorientation of the ridge axis to the north of Felicia. Thereafter, a general westward motion is likely through the rest of the forecast period as a low- to mid-level ridge remains positioned to the north of Felicia. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with a slight southward adjustment that follows the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

Felicia is expected to continue strengthening during the next couple of days over warm SSTs in a low vertical wind shear environment. The only apparent hindrance is some dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment, which could disrupt Felicia’s convective organization if it is entrained into the inner core of the small cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates that Felicia will move into a drier and more stable mid- to upper-level environment beginning Friday, which is forecast to end the storm’s intensification phase and induce a gradual weakening trend this weekend and into early next week. The official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and closely follows the HCCA guidance. The intensity forecast becomes more track-sensitive by 48 h, as the expected west-southwestward turn would keep Felicia to the south of the 26 deg C isotherm. This should allow the cyclone to remain at or near hurricane strength through the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 15.1N 116.7W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  15/1200Z 15.4N 118.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  16/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  16/1200Z 15.3N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  17/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  17/1200Z 14.7N 124.7W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 72H  18/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  19/0000Z 14.8N 130.2W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/0000Z 15.0N 134.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14, 2021

Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in organization and convective banding in association with Felicia. The central dense overcast has also expanded and become more symmetric since this morning. A 1630 UTC GMI microwave overpass revealed a formative mid-level eye but some dry air was noted around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), but given the continued increase in organization the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, the high end of the satellite estimates.

Continued strengthening is expected while Felicia remains over warm SSTs and within an area of vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The intensity guidance is still not overly bullish on strengthening, perhaps due to nearby dry mid-level air that could cause some pauses in the deepening process of the small tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance through 24-36 h, and could be conservative if dry air does not disrupt the inner core. After 48 hours, slightly lower SSTs and a more stable air mass just to the north of the storm is likely to cause gradual weakening, but Felicia is forecast to remain a hurricane through much of the forecast period.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue to steer Felicia west-northwestward to westward through early Thursday. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and become oriented northeast to southwest, which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward in 36-48 hours and a west-southwestward to westward motion should then continue through the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, resulting in higher than normal confidence in the official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 14.8N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 72H  17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14, 2021 

Recent satellite data indicate that the tropical cyclone has continued to organize this morning. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0900 UTC revealed a well-defined banding feature that wrapped more than half-way around the center and early-light visible images show a developing CDO with the center located beneath the eastern portion of the cold cloud tops. Based on Dvorak T-numbers of 3.0 and 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, the initial intensity was increased to 40 kt on a Tropical Cyclone Update issued at 1315 UTC. With the continued increase in organization, the advisory intensity has been raised to 45 kt.

Felicia is located over warm SSTs and in an area of low vertical wind shear. Given the recent development of a small inner-core, it seems likely that Felicia will continue to strengthen during the next couple of days. The only caveat appears to be nearby dry air that could get entrained into the circulation of the relatively small tropical cyclone and cause some disruptions in the intensification process. Although most of the intensity guidance is not extremely bullish and the rapid intensification probabilities are not particularly high, the NHC forecast predicts steady strengthening and brings Felicia to hurricane status within 24 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the guidance.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Felicia should steer the storm west-northwestward to westward during the next 12-24 h. After that time, the orientation of the ridge shifts slightly which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the middle portion of the forecast period. The dynamical model guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the TVCE consensus aid. The guidance envelope did shift a little southward from the previous cycle, and the new NHC forecast has been modified accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 14.3N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  15/0000Z 14.9N 115.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  15/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 36H  16/0000Z 15.5N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 48H  16/1200Z 15.3N 120.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 60H  17/0000Z 15.0N 122.4W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  17/1200Z 14.9N 124.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  18/1200Z 14.9N 127.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  19/1200Z 14.8N 132.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located about 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to show increasing signs of organization. Environmental conditions remain favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of the coast of southern Mexico late this week and move westward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Jul 13, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure, located about 800 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing a small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week and move westward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 12, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure located over 600 miles south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the north of its center. Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week and move westward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Jul 12, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week and move westward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 12, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely form in two to three days well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week and move westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jul 12 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely form within a few days well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week and move westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Jul 11, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by midweek well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec around midweek and move westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Jul 11, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop southeast or south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the next few days and move generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form around mid-to-late week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico within the next few days. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 10 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected support gradual development of this system therafter and a tropical depression could form during the middle portion of next week. This system is expected to move generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the five day period. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by early next week. Some slow development of this system will be possible while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Jul 10, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected support gradual development of this system therafter and a tropical depression could form during the middle portion of next week. This system is expected to move generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the five day period. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.
  • 2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by early next week. Some slow development of this system will be possible while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Jul 9, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by early next week. Additional development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while moving westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development of this system thereafter while moving generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Jul 8, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

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Video: Justin Cruz’s Weather Forecast 7-19-21