Tropical Storm Enrique

Tropical Storm Enrique Track 1500 Hours June 30 2021
Tropical Storm Enrique Track 1500 Hours June 30 2021

Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm Enrique – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 30, 2021 (see NEW video below)

Enrique has been devoid of deep, organized convection for over 12 hours today. In addition, visible satellite imagery and earlier passive microwave data suggested that the original center has been absorbed by a broad trough of low pressure centered farther southeast near the coast of Baja California Sur. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on the remnants of Enrique. The remnant trough is expected to move west-northwestward over Baja California Sur tonight.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 24.5N 110.3W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (Isla Espirito Santo, MX)
 12H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30, 2021

After a brief burst of convection near its center overnight, the satellite presentation of Enrique has degraded this morning. Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed near the estimated center position, and the only active convection at this time is occurring over the Baja California Peninsula. Overnight satellite-derived wind data supported winds of 25 to 30 kt in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone, and satellite trends suggest Enrique has weakened since then. Additionally, TAFB gave the system a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt this morning, which downgrades Enrique to a tropical depression.

Enrique is currently moving northwestward, although it is expected to turn slightly more west-northwestward later today between a weak ridge to its northeast and a low- to mid-level low pressure system well offshore. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the official NHC forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus. Increasing vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment, as well as increasing land interaction, should support continued weakening during the next day or so. As expected, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF do not indicate much potential for additional convective development before the system moves inland tonight. Therefore, Enrique is forecast to become a remnant low over Baja California Sur by Thursday and dissipate shortly thereafter.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rains associated with Enrique are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 24.6N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE Isla Partida, MX)
 12H  01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE La Cueva, MX)
 24H  01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE Pozo Santiago, MX)
 36H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29, 2021

Enrique has been unable to sustain deep, organized convection near its center for over 18 hours, despite some seemingly favorable environmental conditions (namely, warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear). Drier mid-level air to the west of the system may be partly to blame, but it remains somewhat unclear why Enrique is struggling so much. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest Enrique could experience a brief flare-up of convection this evening, as it will still be located over warm sea-surface temperatures near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Therefore, Enrique is maintained as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by several recent scatterometer passes that showed a small area of tropical-storm-force winds in the eastern semicircle.

The cyclone is now moving northwestward, or 325/8 kt. This general motion should continue for the next day or two as the system moves into the Gulf of California and near or over the Baja California Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and it still lies near the center of the guidance envelope and close to the consensus aids. Without any convective organization, Enrique is forecast to continue slowly weakening, and it should become a tropical depression as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula and dissipate by Thursday once it moves over land. Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 23.2N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Mazatlán, MX)
 12H  30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropica  Storm (ENE El Cardonal, MX)
 24H  30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Isla Partida, MX)
 36H  01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE Santo Tomas, MX)
 48H  01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE Pabellón, MX)
 60H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29, 2021 

Enrique remains devoid of any deep convection near its center this morning. The system appears to have entrained drier, more stable air into its core, which has suppressed all thunderstorm activity. Overnight scatterometer data revealed winds to 40 kt in the eastern semicircle, but the system has likely weakened since then given its lack of convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt with this advisory, which is consistent with an objective SATCON estimate and TAFB subjective Dvorak classification.

Passive microwave data and proxy visible satellite imagery show that the low-level center of Enrique is exposed and slightly northeast of previous estimates. The estimated initial motion is an uncertain 335/7 kt. The system is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest and approach the southern Baja California peninsula tonight into Wednesday. The official NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly right-of-track from the previous advisory to account for the center relocation, and generally follows the multi-model consensus.

Enrique remains in an environment with fairly low oceanic heat content and some drier mid-level air, and all the reliable intensity models suggest the cyclone will continue weakening. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast shows Enrique becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow. However, if the system fails to generate any organized convection near its center soon, it could degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later today or tonight.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple of days. The additional rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 22.5N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Mazatlán, MX)
 12H  30/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 24H  30/1200Z 24.2N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Isla Cerralvo, MX)
 36H  01/0000Z 25.1N 110.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WNW Los Dolores, MX)
 48H  01/1200Z 25.8N 111.9W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WNW San Andrés, MX)
 60H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 28, 2021 

This afternoon Enrique’s satellite structure has rapidly deteriorated, with the low-level circulation becoming exposed to the north of a shrinking region of deep convection. Both TAFB and SAB came in with T4.0/65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates this afternoon, however the data T-numbers, which are less constrained than the Current Intensity numbers, were lower. The latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimates has also been rapidly dropping with the current value at T3.0/45 kt. Since the satellite structure has continued to degrade, Enrique has been downgraded to a tropical storm with a 60 kt intensity.

Enrique has continued to turn leftward through the course of the day, with the estimated motion now at 315/5 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to maintain the storm on a slow northwest heading. However, there has been a subtle left and fast shift in the guidance this afternoon. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted a bit west and is a bit faster in accordance with the consensus aids, but is not as far west or quick as the latest TVCE consensus.

Dry-air entrainment has done a number to the inner core of Enrique today. As the storm continues to move northwestward towards lower oceanic heat content and a drier and more stable environment, weakening is expected to continue. However, the storm is still forecasted to be a tropical storm as it approaches the southern tip of Baja California where tropical storm watches remain in effect. By 72 h the low-level circulation could be further disrupted by the terrain of Baja California and the latest NHC forecast expects Enrique to degenerate into a remnant low by that time.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. The core of Enrique is moving away from southwestern coast of Mexico this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds could still occur over portions of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through tonight.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 20.7N 107.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 12H  29/0600Z 21.4N 107.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 24H  29/1800Z 22.1N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 36H  30/0600Z 22.8N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 48H  30/1800Z 23.7N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW La Paz, MX)
 60H  01/0600Z 24.3N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WNW La Paz, MX)
 72H  01/1800Z 24.7N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE San Buto, MX)
 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATE

The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique’s inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates. Enrique’s motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading. The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models. The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

Now that Enrique’s inner core structure has become increasingly ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow Enrique to maintain its intensity longer.

Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along southern part of the Baja California Peninsula.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 20.4N 106.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 12H  29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 24H  29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Isl María Magdalena, MX)
 36H  30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas , MX)
 48H  30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 60H  01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE San Antonio, MX)
 72H  01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WNW La Paz, MX)
 96H  02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Santo Domingo, MX)
120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28, 2021 

Enrique’s cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the past several hours. An eye is no longer apparent in geostationary satellite images, but the central dense overcast is still characterized by fairly cold cloud tops. The current intensity for this advisory is held at 80 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin soon, as the cyclone starts to move into a little less conducive environment. Faster weakening is likely to commence in 24 to 48 hours due to decreasing oceanic heat content, and entrainment of a more stable air mass. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the corrected and simple consensus model guidance and is similar to the previous NHC prediction.

Latest center fixes show that the hurricane’s heading is beginning to lean a little to the left and the initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. A weak ridge that is forecast to develop over northwestern mainland Mexico should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northwest during the next day or two. This general motion should continue through 48-72 hours, however the steering currents are likely to remain rather weak so Enrique is expected to move quite slowly for the next few days. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus predictions, HCCA and the FSU Superensemble.

On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of that area later today.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. The core of Enrique will continue to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 

INIT  28/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW La Cruz de Loreto, MX)
 12H  28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 24H  29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Isla María Magdalena, MX)
 36H  29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 48H  30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 60H  30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Punta Colorada, MX)
 72H  01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Isla Espirito Santo, MX)
 96H  02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Santo Domingo, MX)
120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27, 2021

The satellite presentation of Enrique has improved slightly this evening with a ragged eye occasionally seen in infrared imagery. A couple of earlier SSMI/S microwave images revealed a double eyewall structure with the inner eyewall open to the northeast. The microwave data also revealed good banding structure over the southern portion of the cyclone. Although the eye has been apparent this evening, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB remain T4.5 (77 kt) with objective satellite estimates slightly lower. Therefore the initial wind speed of 80 kt is maintained for this advisory.

The environment ahead of Enrique is forecast to remain conducive for some additional strengthening, however the double eye structure suggests that an eyewall cycle is occuring so little overall change in strength is anticipated through early Monday. After that time, decreasing ocean heat content and the possibility of upwelling of cooler waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane are likely to lead to gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours. Later in the forecast period, Enrique is expected to entrain a drier and more stable airmass and that along with cooler SSTs and potential interaction with the Baja California peninsula are forecast to result in a faster rate of decay in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the slightly higher statistical guidance and the HCCA and ICON consensus aids.

Enrique has been moving generally northward, but very recently it appears that the much anticipated north-northwestward turn may be beginning. The overall track forecast philosophy has not changed from the previous advisory. A ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone, which should cause Enrique to turn northwestward on Monday, and that general heading should continue for the next few days. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement than it has been over the past couple of days and the new forecast is between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days and interests in that area should monitor the progress of this system.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 19.6N 106.0W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Pérula, MX)
 12H  28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 24H  29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 36H  29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Campamento Morelos, MX)
 48H  30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 60H  30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Villa Los Frailes, MX)
 72H  01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Isla Cerralvo, MX)
 96H  02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE Pabellón, MX)
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27, 2021 

Enrique has been holding its own over the past several hours, with some warming of the cloud tops over the estimated center, suggesting that an eye is attempting to form. The northern portion of the core appears to be entraining some dry air, which is likely due to down-sloping from the offshore flow over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Otherwise, the core of the hurricane appears well intact, and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate T-number from TAFB indicates that the initial intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory.

Enrique has been wobbling on a nearly due north trajectory for the past 12 h or so, while the forward motion has appeared to increase to about 5 kt. There is little change to the forecast track reasoning. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is forecast to move toward a mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. This trough is expected to gradually fill in over the next day or so, causing the system to turn to the north-northwest. By late Monday and Tuesday, the weakening cyclone should turn northwestward as it becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the TVCE consensus.

Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is favorable for strengthening in the near term. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a remnant low very near the time it reaches the southern Baja California peninsula, with the low dissipating a short time thereafter. Other than indicating a little faster transition to a remnant low and dissipation, the official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, near the high end of the guidance through 36 h, and then a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models and the intensity consensus after 36 h.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for a portion of that area.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 18.2N 105.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Maruata, MX)
 12H  28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Manzanillo, MX)
 24H  28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Tomatlán, MX)
 36H  29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 48H  29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 60H  30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 72H  30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 96H  01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WSW  El Conejo, MX)
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26, 2021 

After appearing a bit ragged this afternoon, convective banding has increased in the eastern semicircle and near the center of Enrique this evening. A couple of microwave overpasses since the previous advisory have shown a ragged low- to mid-level eye feature. These observations suggest that some of the dry air noted earlier has mixed out. Although objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB remain T4.5 (77 kt) so the initial wind speed is held at 75 kt.

Although Enrique has not strengthened as much as previously forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for some slight intensification in the short term. After that time, moderate easterly shear and gradually decreasing ocean heat content along the track of the storm is likely to result in gradual weakening with Enrique forecast to weaken below hurricane strength in two to three days. A faster rate of weakening is expected later in the forecast period as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone entrains a drier and more stable air mass near the Baja California peninsula. This is expected to result in Enrique becoming a remnant low by day 5.

Recent microwave data indicated that the center of Enrique is located a little south of the earlier estimates, which required a slight adjustment to the 0000 UTC initial position. Although the latest advisory position shows little motion since the 2100 UTC advisory, the longer-term motion appears to be 325/4 kt. The ridge to the north of the hurricane is predicted to continue weakening over the next day or so as a trough digs southward into the southwest United States. As a result, Enrique is forecast to turn north-northwestward tonight and continue on that heading through 36 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-build to the northeast of the storm, and Enrique is forecast to bend back toward the northwest. The latest official forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory, but is slightly closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the 24- to 36-hour time period. The new forecast is in best agreement with the GFEX model (consensus of the GFS and ECMWF), but is not nearly as far east as the GFS and HWRF, which continue to bring the storm close to or onshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Given the slight shift in the forecast track closer to southwestern Mexico, any deviation to the right of the track or expansion of the hurricane-force wind field could bring those winds closer to the coast. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and has also extended the Tropical Storm Warning area farther north.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation of the storm to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of that area.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 17.3N 105.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (NWN Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 12H  27/1200Z 18.0N 106.1W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (NWN Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 24H  28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 36H  28/1200Z 20.0N 106.8W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 48H  29/0000Z 20.8N 107.7W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 60H  29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 72H  30/0000Z 21.9N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 96H  01/0000Z 23.3N 110.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WSW Todas Santos, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26, 2021 

Enrique no longer appears to be intensifying this afternoon. The hurricane’s structure has degraded somewhat, with little evidence of an eye on visible satellite imagery, and additional hints that dry air, seen earlier on microwave imagery, may have disrupted the inner core structure of the cyclone. Stable stratocumulus clouds can also be seen to the northwest of Enrique’s core streaming underneath the cirrus canopy on the western side. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates this afternoon were both T4.5/75 kt from TAFB and SAB. The latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was a tad lower at T4.2/70 kt. A blend of these estimates still supports an estimated intensity of 75 kt for this advisory.

Smoothing out a short-term wobble more westward, the estimated motion is still on a west-northwest heading at 300/06 kt. As discussed previously, Enrique is expected to make a turn to the northwest this evening as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm weakens, due to a strong shortwave trough digging into the Four Corners region of the southwestern US. The latest track guidance is more or less similar to the previous forecast cycle, but there are some notable eastern outliers, including the most recent GFS and HWRF runs. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the TVCE consensus and is quite similar to the previous track forecast for the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track guidance has been shifting a bit more rightward, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that direction, though not as far as the TVCE consensus at the end of the forecast period. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or tomorrow.

Downslope dry-air entrainment appears to be the cause of the recent disruption in Enrique’s satellite structure, primarily in its eastern quadrant. In addition, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance indicates that moderate easterly shear has increased a little earlier than expected over the cyclone. Given these negative factors, the latest intensity forecast has been sharply decreased from the previous one over the first 24 h, with only a little additional intensification expected. Thereafter, the slow forward motion of the storm upwelling cooler waters, and possible additional dry downslope flow from the higher Mexican terrain is expected to lead to gradual weakening starting early next week. In the latter portion of the forecast, decreasing sea-surface temperatures below 26 C will hasten the weakening process, with the storm degenerating into a remnant low near the tip of Baja California by the end of the forecast.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 17.3N 105.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (NWN Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 12H  27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (NWN Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 24H  27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW San Patricio, MX)
 36H  28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 48H  28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 60H  29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 72H  29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 96H  30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Cristóbal, MX)
120H  01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Todos Santos, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26, 2021

Enrique continues to exhibit a well organized structure on satellite imagery. First-light visible shows the formation of a ring of overshooting tops along Enrique’s north and west sides, a sign that an eyewall is organizing. Indeed, a recent 1207 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed this formative eyewall, though some dry air also appears to be wrapping around the hurricane along its eastern flank.

Satellite intensity estimates this morning include subjective Dvorak estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, T4.5/75 kt from SAB, and an objective estimate of T4.3/72 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates based on the improvement in satellite structure since 1200 UTC. Satellite imagery suggests that the estimated motion is beginning to bend a bit rightward at 300/07 kt. As the mid-level ridge to the north of the storm weakens over the next day or so, Enrique should slow down and turn a bit more to the northwest. The large region of monsoonal southwesterly flow south and east of the hurricane may also be influencing this rightward bend in the track in the short term. The new forecast track has shifted again to the right, especially over the first 48 hours, following the track guidance consensus and close to the most recent ECMWF ensemble mean. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today.

Conditions remains favorable for Enrique to intensify further in the short term, and the current rapid intensification cycle is expected to continue the next 12 to 24 h with the hurricane peaking at 95 kt. Thereafter, an increase in easterly shear could help import dry down-sloping flow off the higher Mexican terrain into Enrique’s core. In addition, the depth of warm sea-surface temperatures along Enrique’s track becomes increasingly shallow and any further slowdown in the forward motion would result in cool ocean upwelling. Thus, Enrique is expected to begin weakening after 24 h, and this steady weakening should continue through the end of the forecast period and sea-surface temperatures decrease along the forecast track.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 17.1N 105.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (NWN Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 12H  27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (NWN Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 24H  27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (NWN Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 36H  28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
 48H  28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
 60H  29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 72H  29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 96H  30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)
120H  01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26, 2021

The cloud pattern of Enrique has continued to become better organized since the last advisory, with a well-defined central dense overcast and a small, but persistent, area of cloud tops colder than -80C that may be the top of an eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates include subjective Dvorak estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB and an objective estimate of 65 kt from the CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt based mainly on the latter estimate. Although the cyclone continues to intensify, cirrus cloud motions to the west of the center suggest some shear is occurring.

The initial motion is 290/7. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24-60 h. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen, causing the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. The track guidance has shifted a little to the right since the last advisory during the first 72 h, and the GFS model continues to show a sharper northward turn that would bring the center closer to the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is also shifted a little to the right during the first 72 h, but it lies west of the various consensus models. Any subsequent adjustment of the forecast track to the right/east could require a hurricane watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today.

Enrique is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 24 to 36 hours. Therefore, continued steady to rapid strengthening is likely as indicated by the Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt at 36 h, which is near the high end of the intensity guidance. After 36 h, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a steady weakening.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 16.7N 104.7W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (NWN Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 12H  26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (NWN Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 24H  27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
 36H  27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
 48H  28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 60H  28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 72H  29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 96H  30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, MX)
120H  01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25, 2021

Enrique has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery over the course of the day. After exhibiting a prominent banding pattern for the majority of the morning and early afternoon, a recent convective burst with cloud tops below -80 C has developed over the center and could be the start of an organized central dense overcast. While there have not been any recent microwave passes to assess the structure underneath the cirrus canopy, scatterometer wind data over the center of Enrique indicated the extent of 34-kt winds east of the center had expanded, with a peak wind retrieval of 38 kt. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB were T3.0/45 kt, while SAB was T2.5/35 kt. The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45 kt.

Enrique has maintained a west-northwest heading for the majority of the day, but seems to be gradually slowing down at 290/7 kt. The track philosophy for the next few days has remained unchanged, with a weakening mid-level ridge to the north of Enrique likely to lead to a slowdown in the storm’s forward motion with a northwest bend in its track. After 72 h, Enrique is expected to begin bending back to the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge re-intensifies, and the cyclone becomes more influenced by low-level steering flow while becoming a more shallow vortex. The latest track guidance has shifted a bit to the right after the first 24 h and the NHC track forecast follows suit, in good agreement with the track guidance consensus, but still remains left of the GFS and HWRF models.

Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests Enrique is poised to intensify in the short term, while the storm remains embedded in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest SHIPS-RI guidance indicates there is a 72 percent chance of a 45-kt wind increase over the next 36 hours, nearly 11 times its climatological value. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just below this value, calling for a 85-kt peak intensity in 36 hours. After 48 hours, increasing easterly shear, and possibly cooler upwelled waters as Enrique moves slowly northwestward is expected to begin a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus, but remains just a little below the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).

The expanded wind radii east of Enrique has prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of that area.
  • 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 15.9N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 24H  26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 36H  27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 48H  27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
 60H  28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
 72H  28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 96H  29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)
120H  30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25, 2021

Convective coverage with Enrique has increased further this morning with a number of prominent banding features along the storm’s south and eastern sides. This improvement in structure is also confirmed by a 1045 UTC 37 GHz GMI overpass, which suggested a formative inner core as the convective banding increased. The latest round of subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were both T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while the UW-CIMSS advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) estimate was up to T3.0/45 kt. Blending these estimates but learning towards the higher ADT value yields a current intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

The current motion of Enrique continues to the west-northwest at 290/8 kt, while the storm remains steered by a large mid-level ridge anchored over Mexico. However, this ridge will shift westward and weaken to the north of Enrique as a mid- to upper-level trough digs southward into the southwestern US. This pattern will likely slow down the steering currents over Enrique and allow for a gradual turn to the northwest late this weekend and early next week. Later in the forecast, Enrique’s track is expected to bend back to the west-northwest as it becomes an increasingly shallow cyclone and the low- to mid-level ridging builds back in over Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is in decent agreement with the track consensus, but some spread remains, with the GFS and HMON still on the right side of the guidance envelope.

The current light northeasterly shear impacting Enrique is forecast to decrease even further over the next 24 to 48 hours while the cyclone traverses warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures and remains embedded in a moist mid-level environment. These conditions favor at least steady intensification, and Enrique is now forecast to become a hurricane in 24 hours and reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 48 hours. Thereafter, easterly vertical wind shear could increase somewhat over the system, and its slow forward motion could lead to some upwelling of cooler waters underneath the cyclone. Thus, weakening is forecast to begin after 48 hours. By the end of the forecast period, sea-surface temperatures drop sharply along Enrique’s expected track and more rapid weakening is likely. The latest NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one during the first 48 hours, but is still a little below the reliable HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). Thereafter, the rate of weakening has been increased a bit as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly unfavorable.

While the center of Enrique is still forecast to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the large wind radii predicted on the eastern side of the storm necessitates the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. In addition, outer rainbands are expected to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 15.6N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 36H  27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 48H  27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Maruata, MX)
 60H  28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
 72H  28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
 96H  29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
120H  30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 25, 2021 

Scatterometer data near 04Z indicated that the wind circulation of the low-pressure area located south of southwestern Mexico had become better defined, although the west quadrant was a bit weak to to a trough extending from the low to a second low near 14N 109W. Since that time, the associated convective banding has become better organized, indicating that development has continued. All three ASCATs showed 35 kt winds to the southeast of the center, so advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Enrique.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/8. Enrique is currently to the south of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. The global models forecast the ridge to weaken as a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the southwestern United States during the next few days. The track guidance generally responds to this by forecasting Enrique to slow its forward motion and turn more northwestward. After 96 h, the ridge strengthens slightly, which should cause the tropical cyclone to again move west-northwestward. The track guidance has some spread, with the GFS, Canadian, and HMON models on the right side of the guidance envelope closer to the coast of Mexico, and the UKMET model farther out to sea on the left side. The official forecast track lies near and is a little slower than the various consensus models.

The cyclone is currently in an area of moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear, and light to moderate shear conditions are expected during the next 60 h or so while Enrique is over warm water in a moist environment. Thus, Enrique is expected to strengthen and this part of the official forecast, which is in the weaker portion of the intensity guidance, could be conservative. After about 60 h, increased shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause Enrique to weaken, and this part of the official forecast is near the intensity consensus.

While the center of Enrique is forecast to stay offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, tropical-storm force winds might affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of that area later today. In addition, outer rainbands are expected to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 15.0N 101.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  25/1800Z 15.3N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 24H  26/0600Z 15.9N 104.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 36H  26/1800Z 16.3N 105.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Lázaro Cárdenas, MX)
 48H  27/0600Z 16.9N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Maruata, MX)
 60H  27/1800Z 17.6N 106.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
 72H  28/0600Z 18.2N 107.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
 96H  29/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, MX)
120H  30/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)

WS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 23 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorm have changed little in organization during the past several hours in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico this weekend, and interests in those areas should monitor its progress for development, and the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Jun 23 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorm are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico by this weekend, and interests in those areas should monitor its progress for development, and the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Jun 22, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave have been increasing in coverage several hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico, but overall the activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this week or this weekend while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico by this weekend, and interests in those areas should monitor its progress for development and the threat of heavy rainfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Jun 22, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala, El Salvador, and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this week or this weekend while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico by this weekend, and interests in those areas should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 22, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Central America is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week or this weekend. This disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, and could be near the coast of southern Mexico by the weekend. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Jun 22 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A tropical wave located over Central America and the far eastern portion of the eastern Pacific is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week or this weekend. This disturbance is expected to move generally west-northwestward, and could be near the coast of southern Mexico by the weekend. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 21 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of southeastern Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Jun 21, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of southeastern Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 21, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of Guatemala and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jun 21, 2021

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of Guatemala and the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system moves west- northwestward parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Video: Day before storm, Cabo San Lucas Beach, Mexico