Tropical Storm Claudette

Tropical Storm Claudette Track 2300 Hours June 21 2021
Tropical Storm Claudette Track 2300 Hours June 21 2021

Tropical Storm Claudette Wind Speed Forecast June 21 2021Tropical Storm ClaudetteNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 21, 2021 (see11 pm  video below)

Recent scatterometer data show that the system has opened up into a northwest to southeast-oriented trough. Therefore Claudette has dissipated as a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The remnants of Claudette should continue to move rapidly east-northeastward and weaken over the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 39.0N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 12H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21, 2021

Claudette’s low-level center passed over or near buoy 44014 (east of Virginia Beach) around 1400 UTC, and was associated with a sharp south-to-north wind shift and an estimated pressure of 1004 mb. In addition, buoy 41001, located in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone’s circulation, reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 kt at around 1600 UTC. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt, which is supported by a satellite classification of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 060/25 kt. Claudette is expected to continue in a general east-northeastward direction through tonight ahead of a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system that is moving across the eastern United States. By early Tuesday, the cyclone is forecast move northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed over the colder waters of the far northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies down the center of the tightly packed track model guidance suite.

Claudette has likely peaked in intensity, and little change in strength is expected due to the cyclone currently moving over sub-23-deg-C sea-surface temperatures with even colder water ahead of the storm. Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical extratropical low in the 12-24-hour period, but that transition could occur sooner. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 37.5N  72.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Cape Charles, VA)
 12H  22/0600Z 39.5N  67.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Atlantic City, NJ)
 24H  22/1800Z 42.8N  62.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
 36H  23/0600Z 46.0N  56.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Saint-Pierre, NF Canada)
 48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21, 2021 

Claudette’s low-level center is estimated to be back over water. However, it is difficult to locate in surface observation data due to the broad inner-core wind field and elongated pressure envelope near the NC/VA coasts in which the cyclone is embedded. For now, the surface center has been placed close to the low- to mid-level circulation center noted in KAKQ and KMHX Doppler radar data. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 1200 UTC 32-kt wind report from ship 3EVZ8 located about 130 nmi southeast of the center. Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward and the motion is now 060/24 kt. The track forecast and discussion remain pretty straightforward.

Claudette is now caught up in the deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the north side of a broad subtropical ridge and ahead of a mid-latitude trough currently moving into the eastern and southeastern United States. The cyclone or its remnants will gradually lift out toward the northeast ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough by tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of consensus track models TVCA, GFEX, and HCCA.

As Claudette continues to accelerate, its increased forward speed could result in the low-level wind field opening up into a trough, which would result in the cessation of the system as a tropical cyclone. For now, however, the assumption is that the cyclone could strengthen a little more, which would allow for the surface wind field to remain closed today and into Tuesday until the system weakens over the cold North Atlantic waters north of the Gulf Stream, which is located along roughly 38N latitude. As a result, Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 24 h, follows by dissipation in about 48 h. The official NHC intensity forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the track closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

Key Message:

  • 1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue to diminish this morning across far southeast Virginia and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible.
  • FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  21/1500Z 37.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Virginia Beach, VA)
     12H  22/0000Z 38.7N  71.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
     24H  22/1200Z 41.8N  65.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Provincetown, MA)
     36H  23/0000Z 44.8N  59.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Liscomb, NS Canada)
     48H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Mon Jun 21, 2021 

The elongated low-level center of Claudette is located over eastern North Carolina this morning, while a curved band of convection continues pushing eastward across the adjacent coastal and offshore waters. Surface pressures have fallen slightly overnight near the estimated center position, and Frying Pan Shoals buoy 41013 off the coast of southeastern North Carolina reported a brief period of sustained tropical-storm-force winds shortly after 06 UTC. Therefore, Claudette’s initial intensity is raised to 35 kt with this advisory, making it a tropical storm once again.

Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward as it is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough that is approaching the eastern United States. The storm will move off the North Carolina coast within the next few hours, and a bit more strengthening is possible today as it passes near the north wall of the Gulf Stream. The official NHC forecast hangs onto Claudette as a tropical cyclone through tonight, then quickly transitions it to a post-tropical cyclone by 36 h. The time of dissipation is also moved up a day earlier with this advisory, which is consistent with the latest global model fields that show an open trough approaching Atlantic Canada. Otherwise, the official NHC forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the track closely follows the multi-model consensus.

Some of the global guidance suggests that Claudette could lose its closed low-level circulation and open up into a trough soon after emerging into the western Atlantic Ocean later today. Given the current poor center definition, it is a plausible alternative scenario that Claudette dissipates faster than shown below.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue over the North Carolina coast this morning. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast through this morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 35.6N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Greenville, NC)
 12H  21/1800Z 37.0N  74.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Virginia Beach, VA)
 24H  22/0600Z 39.5N  68.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Atlantic City, NJ)
 36H  22/1800Z 42.8N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post tropical (WSW Shelburne, NS Canada)
 48H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

WS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20, 2021

Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself is not very well defined. Coastal surface observations indicate that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt. Some additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the Atlantic on Monday. A little more intensification could occur while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast. Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the global models suggest that the system will lose tropical characteristics, or even open up into a trough.

Claudette’s forward speed is gradually increasing and the current motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt. On the projected track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow. The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east- northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the model consensus TVCN.

No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United States coasts are required at this time.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas.
  • 2. A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across parts of the coastal Carolinas.
  • 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 34.7N  80.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE White Plains, SC)
 12H  21/1200Z 35.9N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Westover, NC)
 36H  22/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE New York City, NY)
 48H  23/0000Z 44.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Liscomb, NS Canada)
 60H  23/1200Z 47.5N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Seal Cove, NF Canada)
 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20, 2021 

Satellite and surface observations show that Claudette’s circulation has become elongated today and that there is a fairly large area of light winds near the center. Observations along the southeastern U.S. coast and over coastal sections of the Carolinas indicate that the winds have increased somewhat but these data still support an initial intensity of 25 kt. As Claudette approaches the coast overnight and Monday morning, restrengthening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to regain tropical storm status before it exits the coast of North Carolina. Some additional strengthening is forecast while Claudette moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and the shear remains low. The system should become extratropical Tuesday afternoon when it passes near Nova Scotia, and the global models indicate that it will degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity foreast is close to the intensity model consensus and follows the trends of the various global models.

The depression is moving east-northeastward at around 15 kt. A mid-latitude trough that is moving into the central United States should continue to steer Claudette east-northeastward to northeastward over the next couple of days. The center of Claudette is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, then pass well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night, and be near or just southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. The dynamical model guidance remains in very good agreement and the NHC forecast again lies near the various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from North Florida and southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas.
  • 2. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the central and eastern Carolinas.
  • 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 34.2N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW  Abbeville, SC)
 12H  21/0600Z 35.0N  79.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW  Rockfish, NC)
 24H  21/1800Z 36.9N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Virginia Beach, VA)
 36H  22/0600Z 39.3N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Atlantic Vity, NJ)
 48H  22/1800Z 42.4N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
 60H  23/0600Z 45.5N  58.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St. Peter's, NS Canada)
 72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20, 2021

Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show that the center of Claudette is moving across central Georgia this morning. Although the deep convection near the center has waned overnight, loose convective bands are evident over portions of North and South Carolina, and to the southeast of the center across southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. There have been a few wind reports of 20-23 kt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the past couple of hours, with the higher reports occurring at some elevated towers. The initial wind speed is maintained at 25 kt, but the strongest winds are well removed from the center and occurring mainly over water.

Claudette is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 070/15 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Claudette should continue to accelerate east-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough moving into the central United States. The center of the cyclone should be near the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, and then pass well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday afternoon and Monday night. The track guidance remains in very good agreement and the updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous official foreast.

As the large circulation of Claudette moves off of the southeastern United States coast later today and tonight, winds will increase along and offshore of the coast, and the system is expected to regain tropical-storm status by Monday morning. Additional re-strengthening is foreast on Monday and Monday night while the cyclone moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. After that time, the system is expected to quickly transition to an extratropical cyclone, and the global models show the post-tropical cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various intensity aids and the modest deepening indicated by the global models.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, North Florida, and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas.
  • 2. A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.
  • 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 33.8N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Pine Lake, GA)
 12H  21/0000Z 34.4N  81.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Winnsboro, SC)
 24H  21/1200Z 35.8N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Plymouth, NC)
 36H  22/0000Z 38.0N  71.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 48H  22/1200Z 41.1N  66.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE New York City, NY)
 60H  23/0000Z 44.3N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Halifax, NS Canada)
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19, 2021 

Although the center is well inland, Claudette has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large area of convection forming close to the center in the northern quadrant. In addition to this convection, a large area of rain bands is present over the eastern semicircle from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico northward into southeastern Tennessee Surface observation indicate that the maximum winds have decreased a little more and are now 25 kt, with these winds mainly over the Gulf of Mexico to the south of the center. Surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is 1005-1006 mb.

The initial motion is still northeastward, but is a little slower than before, 050/12 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected during the next 6-12 h as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next 36 h or so and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada with a significant increase in forward speed between 36- 72 h. The track forecast guidance remains tightly clustered and has changed little since the last advisory. So, the new forecast track is basically an update of the previous forecast, and it calls for the system to be near the coast of North Carolina at about the 36 h point.

The intensity guidance continues to show a sizable amount of spread. On one side, the GFS has an ill-defined system reaching the Carolina coast in 36 h, with only minimal subsequent intensification after Claudette moves into the Atlantic. On the other side, the UKMET shows the central pressure falling below 1000 mb before the system reaches the Atlantic and winds exceeding 50 kt once the system is over water. The ECMWF and Canadian models lie between these extremes. The model forecasts do not show any strong baroclinic forcing that would lead to the level of intensification shown by the UKMET. On the other hand, the short-term trends in the cyclone’s organization currently favor the stronger model forecasts. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is not changed much from the previous forecast, except for moving the time of dissipation up by 24 h as Claudette gets absorbed into a large extratropical low over eastern Canada. If the current trends continue, or later GFS runs forecast a stronger system, the intensity forecast could be adjusted upward in later advisories.

It should be noted that even the weaker GFS solution brings 30-35 kt winds to the North Carolina coast near the 36 h point, and a tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the current watch area on the next advisory.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama, and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of this area early Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 32.6N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Valley Grande, AL)
 12H  20/1200Z 33.3N  84.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Newnan, GA)
 24H  21/0000Z 34.2N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Blythewood, SC)
 48H  22/0000Z 37.7N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 60H  22/1200Z 40.8N  66.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE New York City, NY)
 72H  23/0000Z 44.5N  60.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Liscomb, NS Canada)
 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19, 2021 

Claudette continues to move inland with its center now located over southwestern Alabama. Surface observations indicate that the system has weakened, and based on that information the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. This makes Claudette a tropical depression. The cyclone is still producing gusty winds and bands of heavy rain across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

As expected, the tropical depression has turned to the northeast and accelerated some, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 040/14 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada early next week. The models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is very similar to the previous one, except again a little to the right at the longer range forecast times.

Some additional weakening seems likely during the next day or so while Claudette moves across the southeast U.S. However, most of the models show the system regaining some strength when it moves across the Carolinas and over the western Atlantic waters Sunday night and Monday. This predicted strengthening is likely due in part to baroclinic processes. The 12Z ECMWF is weaker than previous runs, and overall the remainder of the intensity guidance is largely unchanged from the previous cyclone. Based on the latest models, the NHC intensity forecast is just an update of previous one and lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Once the system moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic Canada.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are expected across these areas.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 32.2N  87.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Half Acre, AL)
 12H  20/0600Z 32.9N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Alexander City, AL)
 24H  20/1800Z 33.7N  82.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Washington, GA)
 36H  21/0600Z 34.6N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE White Lake, NC)
 48H  21/1800Z 36.4N  73.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 60H  22/0600Z 39.1N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 72H  22/1800Z 42.3N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
 96H  23/1800Z 51.0N  52.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St. Anthony, NF Canada)
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19, 2021 

Claudette continues to move inland, with the center now located over southern Mississippi. Most of the showers and thunderstorms are still located on the storm’s east side and extend across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Based on surface observations, the initial intensity is estimated to be 35 kt, and those winds are occurring along the coast within the warning area and over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt. A turn to the northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by an east-northeastward motion tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada early next week. The models are in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is very similar to the previous one, except a little to the right at the longer range forecast times.

In the short term, land interaction should cause weakening and Claudette will likely become a tropical depression later today. In 36 to 48 hours, however, the global models, except for the GFS, show Claudette restrengthening when it nears and moves offshore of the Carolinas Sunday night and Monday. This predicted strengthening is likely due in part to baroclinic processes. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive during that portion of the forecast showing Claudette having peak winds of 45-50 kt along the coast when the center is located over eastern North Carolina. Once the system moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic Canada. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, will continue through the weekend across these areas, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring along portions of the Gulf Coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida. These winds will continue for a few more hours.
  • 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 31.0N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Fords Creek, MS)
 12H  20/0000Z 32.0N  88.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Morvin, AL)
 24H  20/1200Z 32.9N  85.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW LaFayette. AL)
 36H  21/0000Z 33.7N  81.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Eureka, SC)
 48H  21/1200Z 35.0N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Comfort, NC)
 60H  22/0000Z 37.5N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Cape Charles, VA)
 72H  22/1200Z 40.4N  67.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE New York City, NY)
 96H  23/1200Z 49.5N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Bayside, NL Canada)
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19, 2021 

The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be considered a tropical storm. While the organization is not classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics, the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system is now Tropical Storm Claudette. The initial wind speed remains 40 kt, in line with surface observations and radar. These winds are primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the cyclone well away from the center.

Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt. The storm should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone. The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to 72 hours. Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new intensity forecast is more conservative than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory. Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts along the northern Gulf coast will continue.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 29.6N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Gray, LA)
 12H  19/1800Z 30.9N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Fords Creek, MS)
 24H  20/0600Z 32.2N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Thomaston, AL)
 36H  20/1800Z 33.3N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Griffin, GA)
 48H  21/0600Z 34.2N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Camden, SC)
 60H  21/1800Z 35.8N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Alligator, NC)
 96H  23/0600Z 47.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (WNW Red River, NS Canada)
120H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18, 2021 

Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with the broad low-pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico is slowly getting better defined, and several swirls of low-level clouds/vorticity centers were apparent in visible imagery just before dark. However, surface data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the surface wind field is more like a trough elongated NNE-SSW from southeastern Louisiana into the Gulf. In addition, the convection associated with the system is mostly well to the northeast of the swirls. Based on this, the low will remain as a potential tropical cyclone, as it has not yet put all of the pieces together to be called a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

There is again little change to the track forecast reasoning. The initial motion is a little slower than before at 010/11. This general motion should continue until the system reaches the northern Gulf coast in the next 6 h or so. After the system moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. The new forecast is a little faster and a little south of the previous forecast after 36 h based on the latest guidance, but other than that there are no significant changes.

Time is running out for the system to develop further before landfall. However, it should be noted that in this case landfall will not instantly put an end to the chances of tropical or subtropical cyclone development, as much of the associated strong winds and convection will remain over water for at least 12 h. After that time, the system should be far enough inland to cause weakening to start. One note is that all of the global models except the GFS now forecast the low to survive for more than 72 h. The new intensity forecast will not change the dissipation time for now. However, if the 00Z global models continue this trend, subsequent advisories may need to show a longer life for the system.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts along the northern Gulf coast will continue regardless of whether there is any additional development.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into the southern Appalachians and portions of the Southeast.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 28.9N  90.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Port Fourchon, LA)
 12H  19/1200Z 30.4N  90.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE  Hammond, LA)
 24H  20/0000Z 31.9N  88.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE  Matherville, MS)
 36H  20/1200Z 33.2N  85.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE  Millerville, AL)
 48H  21/0000Z 34.1N  82.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE  Elberton, GA)
 60H  21/1200Z 35.5N  79.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Carbonton, NC)
 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18, 2021 

A few hours ago, an ASCAT-A pass indicated that maximum winds were about 40 kt well east of the ill-defined center of circulation, and the initial wind speed was increased to that value at the intermediate advisory at 18Z. Recent surface observations just offshore of southeastern Louisiana have been reporting maximum winds between 30 and 40 kt. Based on a combination of these data, and since the structure of the system has not changed much during the past few hours, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Although the disturbance has wind speeds of tropical storm intensity, it has not been named a tropical storm yet since its center is ill defined and broad as evident in the Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations. Regardless of its status, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds are spreading across portions of the northern Gulf coast, and these conditions will spread inland through tonight.

There has not been much change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is moving northward at about 14 kt, and a general north to north-northeast motion is expected through landfall, which is likely to occur overnight or early Saturday morning. After the system moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. The models remain in relatively good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous track forecast.

There is some opportunity for a little strengthening during the next 6 to 12 hours before the system makes landfall. However, significant intensification is not expected due to the cyclone’s broad and asymmetric structure, and ongoing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. After landfall, weakening is forecast, and dissipation is still predicted to occur by 72 hours. However, it should be noted that the ECMWF and UKMET models hold onto the vortex for a while longer.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding tonight and through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast. Flood impacts will spread northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions have begun along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 27.9N  91.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
 12H  19/0600Z 29.5N  90.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Houma, LA)
 24H  19/1800Z 31.4N  89.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW  Hattiesburg, MS)
 36H  20/0600Z 32.8N  87.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WNW Ellards, AL)
 48H  20/1800Z 33.8N  84.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE Villa Rica, GA)
 60H  21/0600Z 34.7N  81.9W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Woodruff, SC)
 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL A L032021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18, 2021 

The cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection has increased during the past several hours, but it remains confined to the east side of the circulation due to about 20 kt of west-southwesterly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the system and they found a surface center a little to the east of where we previously expected it to be, but have otherwise reported generally light winds. Based on surrounding surface observations and the aircraft data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The leading edge of the rain is just reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast, and conditions will continue to deteriorate there through tonight.

The broad disturbance is moving north-northeastward at about 12 kt into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion should continue during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the center of the cyclone to the coast of southeastern Louisiana overnight or on Saturday morning. After landfall, a turn to the right across the southeast U.S. is expected when the system becomes embedded in the westerly flow on the north side of the ridge. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one based on the initial position and motion.

Although the system will likely become a tropical storm later today or tonight, significant strengthening is not expected due to its broad and asymmetric structure, ongoing west-southwesterly shear, and limited time over the Gulf of Mexico waters. The models are in quite good agreement overall, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It should be noted that the cyclone could be a little stronger at landfall than shown below since that is expected to occur between the 12- and 24-h forecast times.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast. Flood impacts will spread northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 26.5N  91.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Potential Storm (ESE Galveston, TX)
 12H  19/0000Z 28.2N  90.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
 36H  20/0000Z 32.1N  88.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Extra Tropical (WNW Pachuta, MS)
 48H  20/1200Z 33.4N  86.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Extra Tropical (ENE Vincent, AL)
 60H  21/0000Z 34.5N  83.8W   20 KT  25 MPH - Extra Tropical (WNW Clermont, GA)
 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17, 2021

Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low-pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has changed little in organization during the past several hours, and the associated convection lies well to the east of the broad and poorly defined center. The initial intensity will be held at 25 kt based partially on ship reports from the northeastern and northern parts of the system.

Due to the poorly defined center, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/8. The system should move generally northward for the next 24-36 h to a position near the coast of Louisiana, followed by a motion toward the northeast across the southeastern United States as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an upper-level trough over Texas, northern Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track is basically an update of the previous forecast. It should be noted that the latest GFS run continues to forecast a re-formation of the center to the north sometime on Friday, and the forecast forward motion tries to account for this possibility.

The aforementioned upper-level trough is causing shear over the system, and present indications are that some shear will persist through landfall and hinder development. The intensity forecast calls for the low to become a tropical cyclone in about 12 h, followed by some modest strengthening to tropical storm strength at 24-36 h. This would be followed by weakening over land, with the system dissipating over the southeastern United States between 72- 96 h. There is a chance that, due to the interaction with the upper-level trough, the system may take on subtropical cyclone characteristics instead of tropical cyclone characteristics. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast, spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 23.5N  92.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Potential T Storm (ESE La Pesca, MX)
 12H  18/1200Z 25.0N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Matamoros, MX)
 24H  19/0000Z 27.2N  92.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Galveston, TX)
 36H  19/1200Z 29.8N  91.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Amelia, LA)
 48H  20/0000Z 32.0N  88.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Quitman, MS)
 60H  20/1200Z 34.1N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE Rockledge, AL)
 72H  21/0000Z 35.6N  83.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical (WNW Iron Duff, NC)
 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17, 2021 

Visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection is beginning to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of the system, similar to what one might see in a developing subtropical cyclone. Although the upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so. Given the proximity of the disturbance to land, which requires tropical storm warnings at this time, advisories are being initiated on this system as a potential tropical cyclone.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was still rather broad. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the system and has not yet found a well-defined center. Maximum winds based on surface observations and the scatterometer pass are near 25 kt. Numerical intensity guidance do not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end of the guidance.

Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain. The system is expected to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone near Florida. The official track forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions. It should be noted, however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf coast and spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 22.9N  92.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Potential (WNW Mérida, MX)
 12H  18/0600Z 24.5N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Potential (ENE El Porvenir, MX)
 24H  18/1800Z 26.5N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Galveston, TX)
 36H  19/0600Z 29.0N  92.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Marsh Island, LA)
 48H  19/1800Z 31.5N  89.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW Sanford, MS)
 60H  20/0600Z 34.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW  Bremen, AL)
 72H  20/1800Z 35.0N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Depression (WSW Brasstown, NC)
 96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 17, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little better organized today. This system is expected to move generally northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday. A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM CDT (2100 UTC). An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Heavy rains will also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.

Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 16, 2021 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system will move little today and tonight, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land. However, the system should begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.

Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jun 16, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system will move little today and tonight, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.

Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Jun 16, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post- Tropical Cyclone Bill, located a couple hundred miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system will move little during the next day or so, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jun 15, 2021

Corrected genesis probabilities and category for the Gulf low For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the next day or so, and any development should be slow to occur during that time period. However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms continued to diminish in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development of this system is no longer anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low-pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the next day or so, and any development should be slow to occur during that time period. However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms continued to diminish in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development of this system is no longer anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Halifax, Canada.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low-pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur during that time period due to its close proximity to land. However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 2. Shower activity is limited in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should end the chances of formation when the wave reaches the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Halifax, Canada.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low-pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur during that time period due to its close proximity to land. However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 2. Shower activity is limited in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should end the chances of formation when the wave reaches the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 15, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles east-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur during that time period. However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased and become less organized during the past several hours in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should limit the chances of formation when the wave reaches the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Bill, located more than 300 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a broad low-pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next few days. Thereafter, a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds will limit chances of formation while the wave moves over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jun 14, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located about a couple of hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a broad low-pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and a few showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 14, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Two, located about a hundred miles east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a broad low-pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles south- southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is maintaining a large but disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 14, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a well-defined low-pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical characteristics. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. This system is expected to move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further development by midweek. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche are associated with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week when the system moves northward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

3. A strong tropical wave just offshore of west Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean late week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Mon Jun 14, 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the low-pressure system offshore the North Carolina coast.

  • 1. Updated: A well-defined, non-tropical low-pressure system is located about 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become more concentrated near the center of the low early this morning, and environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation. If this recent development trend continues, then a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form later today while the system moves northeastward away from the United States. The low will move over colder waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.
  • 2. A large area of cloudiness and showers located over the Bay of Campeche is associated with a broad low-pressure area. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week when the system begins to move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

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