Tropical Storm Carlos – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15, 2021
Several hours ago there was a burst of deep convection near the center of Carlos. Although cloud tops are beginning to warm, this convection gave Carlos a little more time as a tropical cyclone. There has been no new ASCAT data since early yesterday to confirm the strength of the cyclone’s winds, and so the initial intensity is set at a somewhat uncertain 30 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with the CIMSS ADT.
Carlos has begun to turn back to the west and is now on a heading of 260/9 kt. This general motion, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed is expected for the remainder of the cyclone’s existence, as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus.
Dry and stable air along with strong vertical wind shear that have been disrupting the depression’s convection will continue to affect the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Due to the warm underlying waters, there still may be some short-lived convective bursts near the center of Carlos over the next couple of days. In about 2 days, the shear vector will shift from southwest to northwest as an upper trough north of the depression shifts east. This subsident pattern should put an end to any chances for organized deep convection to return. The NHC forecast calls for Carlos to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 h. However, that timing is uncertain, and Carlos could remain a tropical cyclone until the upper-level flow shifts in a couple of days. Once a remnant low, the system should dissipate within a day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 10.0N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH - Depression (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX) 12H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH - Depression (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX) 24H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX) 36H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX) 48H 17/1200Z 9.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX) 60H 18/0000Z 9.9N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX) 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED