Tropical Storm Iota

Tropical Depression Iota Track 0300 Hours November 19 2020
Tropical Depression Iota Track 0300 Hours November 19 2020

Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm Iota – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM CST Wed Nov 18, 2020 (see Wednesday  video below)

Although the system still has broad mid-level rotation, synoptic observations from Central America show that the surface circulation of Iota has dissipated. Its remnants are located somewhere near El Salvador.

Although the remnants of Iota are likely to move into the eastern North Pacific during the next day or so, the global models do not show regeneration of the system over that basin. Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and mudslides, with potentially catastrophic effects, over portions of Central America.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Iota.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from the remnants of Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 13.8N  89.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE El Congo, El Salvador)
 12H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17, 2020 

Most of the deep convection associated with Iota has weakened during the past several hours, with the primary remaining convection now in a band well removed from the center in the northwestern semicircle. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, and these winds are possibly occuring in two areas – a small area near what is left of the inner core and along the coast of Honduras in the Tropical Storm warning area. Iota should continue to quickly weaken, with the system expected to drop below tropical-storm strength during the next few hours and to dissipate completely between 12-24 h. At this time, the available guidance is not bullish on any regeneration of the system over the Pacific.

The initial motion is 270/10. The cyclone or its remnants should move westward to west-southwestward before dissipation occurs.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta’s destruction from a couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
  • 2. Tropical-storm conditions, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next few hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 13.7N  87.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE San Jose, Honduras)
 12H  18/1200Z 13.4N  88.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE San Nicolas Lempa, El Sal)
 24H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17, 2020 

The cloud pattern of Iota has slowly degraded during the day, with warming of the cloud tops, but it has remained fairly well organized for a system that’s been over land for about 18 hours. The initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using the Decay-SHIPS guidance. Iota will encounter higher terrain soon while it moves westward at about 10 kt, so it should quickly weaken tonight, and it will probably degenerate into a weak low near El Salvador overnight. None of the available guidance show regeneration in the eastern Pacific, perhaps due to cooler SSTs with all of the recent gap wind events, and plenty of drier air in the vicinity.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta’s destruction from a couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
  • 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.7N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE El Jicaro, Nicaragua)
 12H  18/0600Z 13.6N  87.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW El Amatillo, El Salvador)
 24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM CST Tue Nov 17, 2020 

Satellite images indicate that Iota continues to weaken over land with warming cloud tops near the center. It still has a small core, however, so the initial wind speed will be lowered to 65 kt on this advisory, in line with the Decay-SHIPS model. Further weakening is expected today as Iota moves westward at about 10 kt, with Iota becoming a tropical storm this afternoon, and a tropical depression tonight. Iota should degenerate into a remnant low near El Salvador by tomorrow due to the rugged terrain of central America.

While the winds of Iota are weakening, there are still life- threatening hazards ongoing for central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, which could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta’s destruction from a couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
  • 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 13.7N  85.2W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Ayapal, Nicaragua)
 12H  18/0000Z 13.7N  86.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Ococona, NI)
 24H  18/1200Z 13.7N  88.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low(WNW San Esteban Catarina, El Salvador)
 36H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16, 2020

Iota is about to make landfall on the coast of northeastern Nicaragua about 30 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas. Satellite images show that the hurricane is very powerful with a circular well-defined eye and a fairly symmetric convective ring surrounding that feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were investigating Iota earlier this evening and found that the minimum pressure was fairly steady at around 920 mb. Based on the aircraft data, including 143-kt flight-level winds, the initial intensity is set at 135 kt.

Iota is moving to the west at about 8 kt and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, taking the cyclone across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Rapid weakening is forecast as Iota moves inland, and the cyclone is anticipated to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus models, and the intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance.

This is a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall. In addition, the situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is making landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is a catastrophic hurricane. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
  • 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to the heavy rainfall. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 13.6N  83.4W  135 KT 155 MPH - Category 4(ESE Haulover, Nicaragua)
 12H  17/1200Z 13.7N  84.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Siuna, NI)
 24H  18/0000Z 13.8N  86.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Oropoli, Honduras)
 36H  18/1200Z 13.8N  88.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Ilobasco, El Salvador)
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Mon Nov 16, 2020 

Iota has a powerful appearance on the latest satellite imagery, with a well-defined eye and solid eyewall. The last aircraft mission reported winds similar to the previous crew, with maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of about 145 kt, with SFMR values of 130-135 kt, and a central pressure of about 919 mb. This data support an initial wind speed of about 140 kt, although this could be a little generous. The next aircraft will be in the hurricane early this evening for a final reconnaissance assessment. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall this evening, and rapid weakening is anticipated over central America. Notably, strong winds are expected near the core and in coastal areas of Honduras for about a day after landfall, along with torrential rainfall.

The hurricane is moving westward a little slower, about 8 kt. The forecast has been gradually adjusting southward with Iota refusing to gain much latitude, seemingly under the influence of a strong ridge. The new NHC track is nudged southward again, but still remains close to where Hurricane Eta made landfall a couple of weeks ago. Iota is expected to dissipate over the high terrain of central America before reaching the eastern Pacific.

This remains a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
  • 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 13.6N  82.7W  140 KT 160 MPH - Category 5 (ESE Haulover, Nicaragua)
 12H  17/0600Z 13.7N  83.8W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WNW Haulover, NI)
 24H  17/1800Z 13.8N  85.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Ayapal, NI)
 36H  18/0600Z 13.8N  87.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nueva Esparta, El Salv)
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16, 2020

Iota is a very impressive hurricane, especially for this late in the year, with a distinct, warm eye on satellite images and a rather electrified eyewall from the GOES lightning detector. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found maximum 700-mb flight-winds of about 147 kt, with SFMR values of 140-145 kt, and a central pressure of about 917 mb. A blend of all these data leads to an initial wind speed of 140 kt, making Iota a category 5 hurricane, the latest category 5 on record for the Atlantic basin. A little more strengthening is possible today with fairly light shear and warm waters before Iota makes landfall tonight. Rapid weakening is anticipated over central America, and Iota should dissipate in a couple of days.

The hurricane is moving westward at 9 kt. This general motion with perhaps a slight gain in latitude is expected through tonight due to a large ridge of the high pressure to the north. After landfall, the cyclone should move a little faster, and dissipate over the higher terrain of central America. The new forecast is a little south of the previous one, mostly owing to the initial position.

This is a catastrophic situation unfolding for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did about two weeks ago.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
  • 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta’s recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
  • 3. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely still occurring on Providencia. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 13.5N  82.0W  140 KT 160 MPH - Categoery 5 (ESE Prinzapolka, Nicaragua)
 12H  17/0000Z 13.7N  83.2W  145 KT 165 MPH - Categoery 5 (ESE Haulover, NI)
 24H  17/1200Z 14.0N  84.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Bonanza, NI)
 36H  18/0000Z 14.1N  86.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Danlí, Honduras)
 48H  18/1200Z 13.9N  88.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Deoression (ESE  Santa Lucía, Honduras)
 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15, 2020 

Iota continues to gain strength. A small eye has occasionally appeared in satellite images, and the banding features are well established and fairly symmetric around the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Iota earlier this evening, and they found maximum flight-level winds of 93 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 84 kt around 00Z. Based on this data and the continued improvement in organization, the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt. The minimum pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft was 961 mb around 00Z, which is a 13 mb drop from the flight earlier today. Another Air Force plane is set to be in the hurricane overnight.

Iota is moving westward at about 9 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua Monday night. After landfall, the models show a slight bend to the left as the hurricane moves in the flow on the southeast side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

The hurricane is in near ideal conditions to continue strengthening until landfall. In an environment of warm 29 C waters, very low wind shear, and a moist air mass all of the normally skillful models show Iota becoming a dangerous major hurricane before it strikes the coast. Given the favorable conditions, well-defined structure of the hurricane, and model guidance there is high confidence that significant wind, surge, and rainfall impacts will occur in portions of the hurricane warning area. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is expected and the hurricane will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain in Central America in 3 or 4 days.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
  • 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia later tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres.
  • 3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 13.3N  80.2W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Prinzapolka, Nicaragua)
 12H  16/1200Z 13.5N  81.4W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ENE Prinzapolka, NI)
 24H  17/0000Z 13.9N  82.9W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 36H  17/1200Z 14.2N  84.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Bonanza, NI)
 48H  18/0000Z 14.3N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Las Mangas, Honduras)
 60H  18/1200Z 14.1N  87.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Depression (WSW Las Gradas, Honduras)
 72H  19/0000Z 13.8N  88.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Ilobasco, El Salvador)
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EST Sun Nov 15, 2020 

The satellite presentation of Iota has continued to improve this afternoon. A ragged eye has become apparent in visible satellite imagery, with excellent banding features surrounding it. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a minimum central pressure of 977 mb during its first pass through the center earlier this afternoon, and recorded around 974 mb on its second pass.

Somewhat surprisingly, the plane only measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 74 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt. Those winds support an intensity slightly lower than what was previously estimated, but given the low central pressure and downward trend, plus the fact that the plane only made a single pass in each quadrant, it is possible that the maximum winds were not sampled. In addition, the satellite presentation and pressure fall may be preceding the winds slightly. Therefore, the initial is again set at 80 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route and should provide additional information on Iota’s intensity this evening.

Very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and warm waters are expected to lead to rapid strengthening until the center crosses the coast of Central America. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Iota to reach major hurricane strength tonight, and become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Central America Monday night. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and shows a peak slightly above the latest HFIP corrected consensus model. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as Iota moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

Iota is moving westward to west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from before. A strong mid-level ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and Florida will steer Iota westward to west-northwestward through landfall Monday night. Once Iota moves over Central America, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward through 24 hours, but little overall change was required thereafter. The official forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical model envelope.

In addition to potentially catastrophic winds, Iota is expected to bring a life-threatening storm surge and extreme rainfall impacts to portions of Central America. This comes less than two weeks after Hurricane Eta significantly impacted the area.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras where a hurricane warning is in effect.
  • 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres.
  • 3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 13.3N  79.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Prinzapolka, Nicaragua)
 12H  16/0600Z 13.6N  80.5W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 24H  16/1800Z 14.0N  82.1W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 36H  17/0600Z 14.3N  83.6W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Santa Marta, NI)
 48H  17/1800Z 14.4N  84.9W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Raiti, NI)
 60H  18/0600Z 14.3N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Danlí, Honduras)
 72H  18/1800Z 14.1N  87.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW Opatoro, Honduras)
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15, 2020

Iota continues to rapidly strengthen. The hurricane has an impressive appearance in visible satellite imagery with a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast and excellent banding features in all quadrants. The outflow has become well established and recent microwave satellite imagery has shown a 37-GHz eye feature and a mid-level eye that was not quite closed. A TAFB Dvorak classification of T4.5 was the basis for the 75-kt 1200 UTC analyzed intensity, and with the continued improvement in structure the advisory wind speed is set at 80 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm.

Iota is located within an extremely conducive environment for strengthening. The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to remain quite favorable while the storm crosses sea surface temperatures of 28.5-29 degrees C. As a result, continued rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to become a potentially catastrophic category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or eastern Honduras. A difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycle could cause the intensity to begin to level off when Iota nears the coast. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for continued rapid strengthening and is in good agreement with the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus models. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as Iota moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

The hurricane has begun moving faster toward the west-northwest, with a long-term motion estimate of 285/8 kt. The steering currents ahead of Iota are well established as a strong mid-level ridge is located over the western Atlantic and Florida. This should keep Iota on a westward to west-northwestward heading through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward track is anticipated. The global models are in good agreement on this scenario and the updated NHC track forecast is only adjusted a little north of the previous track to be closer to the latest multi-model consensus aids.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras where a hurricane warning is in effect.
  • 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by this evening on San Andres.
  • 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 13.3N  78.5W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Prinzapolka, Nicaragua)
 12H  16/0000Z 13.8N  79.7W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 24H  16/1200Z 14.2N  81.4W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Awastara, NI)
 36H  17/0000Z 14.4N  82.9W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Dákura, NI)
 48H  17/1200Z 14.5N  84.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW  Wisconsin, NI)
 60H  18/0000Z 14.4N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Catacamas, Honduras)
 72H  18/1200Z 14.3N  86.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW Teupasenti, Honduras)
 96H  19/1200Z 13.8N  89.8W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ENE San Pedro Puxtla, El Salvador)
120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14, 2020

Iota continues to strengthen. Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and intensity near the center, and microwave images indicate that the inner core is becoming better defined. The Dvorak classifications at 00Z supported an intensity of 55 kt, and since the thunderstorms continue to organize, the initial wind speed is set a little higher to 60 kt. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Iota overnight.

Iota has slowed a little and has now turned westward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/4 kt. A ridge over Florida and the western Atlantic is expected to remain to the north of Iota. This high pressure system, and another ridge over Mexico and the western Gulf, should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days and then westward to west-southwestward after that. This motion should take the core of Iota to the coast of Nicaragua Monday night. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear quite favorable for Iota to continue strengthening until it reaches the coast in a little more than 2 days. Since the storm appears to be developing an inner core, rapid strengthening during the next couple of days seems likely. All of the intensity models show a significant amount of strengthening before landfall, and are higher than the previous cycle. Based on the latest guidance and favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above the previous one and shows Iota becoming a hurricane soon and a major hurricane in 36 hours. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and southern Honduras. The NHC forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is expected to intensify and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected there beginning Monday.
  • 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres.
  • 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 12.7N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 12H  15/1200Z 12.9N  77.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 24H  16/0000Z 13.3N  79.5W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 36H  16/1200Z 13.7N  81.2W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 48H  17/0000Z 14.0N  82.7W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Puerto Cabezas, NI))
 60H  17/1200Z 14.1N  84.0W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Kukalaya, NI)
 72H  18/0000Z 14.0N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ayapal, NI)
 96H  19/0000Z 13.6N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WNW Nacaome, Honduras)
120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EST Sat Nov 14, 2020 

Corrected the numbering of the Key Messages and a typo in the first paragraph.

Deep convection has re-developed closer to the low-level center of Iota during the afternoon, and there has been an increase in banding over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has flown an unusually long mission from its base in Biloxi, Mississippi, indicate that the increase in organization has resulted in strengthening. The plane measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt, and SFMR winds of 46 kt. Those were the basis for the increase in wind speed on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. Given the continued increase in organization, the initial intensity has been set at 50 kt for this advisory. The aircraft reported that the minimum pressure had fallen to around 995 mb during its final pass through the center.

The aircraft data indicate that Iota has not developed a tight inner core yet, but with the increase in convection closer to the center, and with the storm moving away from the coast of northwestern Colombia, it is likely Iota will begin to strengthen at a faster rate by Sunday. The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become quite favorable while the storm traverses SSTs of around 29C. These conditions are likely to result in steady to rapid strengthening over the next couple of days and the NHC intensity forecast again predicts that Iota will be at or near major hurricane strength when it nears the coast of Central America. The SHIPS model is explicitly forecasting rapid intensification (a 30-kt increase in wind speed) over each of the next 24 h periods, and the NHC intensity forecast is quite similar, and is also in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid.

Satellite imagery and the aircraft fixes show that Iota has continued to move west-southwestward today. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida should build eastward over the western Atlantic during the next day or two. This should allow Iota to move westward to west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed, with this motion bringing the storm near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras by late Monday. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected to take the center of Iota inland over Central America. The track guidance has again shifted southward, partially due to the more southward initial position once again. This has resulted in another southward shift in the NHC track forecast, which is again near the TVCA multi-model consensus.

The latest track forecast necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for Providencia island, and Hurricane Watches were issued earlier this afternoon for portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. In addition to the wind and storm surge threats, Iota is likely to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of Central America that are still recovering from Hurricane Eta’s impacts.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is expected to intensify and be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of damaging wind and a dangerous storm surge across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of that area.
  • 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres.
  • 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 12.6N  76.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 12H  15/0600Z 12.7N  77.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 24H  15/1800Z 13.0N  78.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 36H  16/0600Z 13.4N  80.6W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua)
 48H  16/1800Z 13.8N  82.2W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 60H  17/0600Z 14.0N  83.5W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 72H  17/1800Z 14.0N  85.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Bonanza, NI)
 96H  18/1800Z 13.6N  87.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WNW Nacaome, Honduras)
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14, 2020 

Recent microwave satellite imagery and early morning visible pictures show that Iota remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the center located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and recent satellite estimates. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iota early this afternoon. Somewhat surprisingly Iota has not strengthened much since yesterday, which appears to be the result of some unexpected shear and its close proximity to the northwest coast of Colombia. The global models predict that the shear will relax soon, and that the system will be in quite favorable conditions for strengthening. The NHC forecast again calls for steady to rapid strengthening in the next 12-60 h once the storm organizes enough to take advantage of the expected favorable conditions. The updated NHC intensity is similar to the previous forecast and shows Iota at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America.

Although the center of Iota was relocated to the south and west of the earlier estimates, the long-term initial motion estimate is 255/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to build eastward to the north of Iota during the next day or two, and this feature should cause the cyclone to move westward to west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. This should bring the center near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras in 2 to 3 days. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected with Iota moving inland over Central America. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward, especially in the first 24 to 36 hours due to the more southward initial position. The NHC track lies close to the TVCA multi-model consensus, which is between the lastest global model interpolated trackers and the model fields.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the islands of San Andres and Providencia.
  • 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 12.7N  76.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 12H  15/0000Z 12.9N  76.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 24H  15/1200Z 13.4N  78.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 36H  16/0000Z 13.9N  80.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua)
 48H  16/1200Z 14.2N  81.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Awastara, NI)
 60H  17/0000Z 14.4N  83.0W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Dákura, NI)
 72H  17/1200Z 14.5N  84.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW  Wisconsin, NI)
 96H  18/1200Z 14.3N  86.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Teupasenti, Honduras)
120H  19/1200Z 13.5N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Los Cobanos, El Salvador)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13, 2020 

Satellite images show that Iota has changed little during the past several hours. Deep convection is organized in fragmented bands around the center, except in the northwestern quadrant where there is a dry slot. All of the satellite intensity estimates are around 35 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value.

Iota has been drifting to the south-southwest during the past several hours, however, the steering currents are expected to become more pronounced soon. A strong and sprawling mid-level ridge currently centered over the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward and build to the north of the tropical cyclone. Since this ridging is expected to remain well established to the north of Iota during the next several days, a general westward motion is expected through the forecast period. The NHC track forecast takes the core of Iota to the Nicaragua and Honduras coasts in about 3 days. However, conditions are expected to deteriorate along that part of the coast before the center arrives. The latest models are in fairly good agreement, except for the HWRF which is a northern outlier, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is a little slower than the previous one.

An upper-level trough to the west of Iota is expected to move west and dissipate on Saturday. This should leave the storm in favorable conditions of 29-30 C waters, and in an air mass of low wind shear and high moisture this weekend and early next week. These conditions support steady to possibly rapid intensification until Iota makes landfall. The main question is how strong will Iota become before it crosses the coast. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 55 percent chance of Iota strengthening 65 kt or more before it makes landfall, which is about 11 times the climatological mean. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and shows Iota strengthening to a major hurricane in about 60 hours.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Saturday.
  • 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta’s recent effects there.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 13.6N  74.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 12H  14/1200Z 13.5N  74.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 24H  15/0000Z 13.7N  76.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 36H  15/1200Z 14.0N  77.6W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 48H  16/0000Z 14.3N  79.5W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Nina Yari, Nicaragua)
 60H  16/1200Z 14.5N  81.2W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Nina Yari, NI)
 72H  17/0000Z 14.7N  82.7W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Bismuna Tara,NI)
 96H  18/0000Z 14.8N  85.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Catacamas, Honduras)
120H  19/0000Z 14.3N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Santa Cruz, Honduras)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL  400 PM EST Fri Nov 13, 2020

Banding features over the eastern and southeastern portions of the cyclone’s circulation have increased since this morning, and the overall organization of the system continues to quickly improve. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that there was a fairly large area of light winds near the center, and that the low-level center was displaced to the northwest of the mid-level center seen in visible satellite imagery. Since the system is still in its formative stage, the low-level center may reform closer to the mid-level feature, and the advisory position is a compromise between the low- and mid-level circulations. The earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of around 30 kt with several higher rain-inflated vectors. Based on the continued increase in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt. Iota becomes the 30th named storm of the recording-breaking 2020 hurricane season.

The environment ahead of Iota appears to be quite conducive for intensification. The system will be moving over warm waters, in a moist atmosphere, and within an area of very low vertical wind shear. As a result, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Iota to reach hurricane status within 36 h, and now calls for the system to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. The NHC intensity foreast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, and the 70-kt increase in intensity over the next 72 hours is supported by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index that shows a nearly 60 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in intensity during that time period.

The tropical storm has not moved very much today, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 255/3 kt. A strong mid-level ridge that extends across Florida and the western Atlantic is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days causing the cyclone to move faster toward the west or west-northwestward. The track guidance has come into a bit better agreement this afternoon, with only the HWRF showing a track farther north over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous official forecast, and no significant adjustments to the earlier track forecast were required.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight or early Saturday.
  • 2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 13.8N  74.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 12H  14/0600Z 13.7N  75.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 24H  14/1800Z 13.7N  76.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 36H  15/0600Z 13.9N  77.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua)
 48H  15/1800Z 14.2N  79.3W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ENE Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 60H  16/0600Z 14.6N  81.2W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Nina Yari, NI)
 72H  16/1800Z 15.0N  82.8W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Irlaya, Honduras)
 96H  17/1800Z 15.2N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Limeta, Honduras)
120H  18/1800Z 14.7N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW El Zapote, Honduras)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 13, 2020 

Corrected the time from EDT to EST

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea has increased and become more concentrated since yesterday. One-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation has also become better defined, with a westerly component seen in the low-cloud motion near the southwestern edge of the primary convective mass. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0, indicating that the convection has become sufficiently organized for the system to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, in line with the Dvorak classifications. Environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification over the next few days.

Given the current broad and sprawling structure of the system, strengthening may begin as gradual today, but once an inner core organizes, steady-to-rapid strengthening appears likely. While the SHIPS rapid intensification index does not show very high chances of rapid strengthening for any one 24-h period over the next few days, it does indicate a 50/50 chance (nearly 10 times the climatological mean) of a 65-kt increase in wind speed over the next 72 hours. As a result, the NHC forecast calls for significant strengthening during the 24 to 72 hour time period, and the system could approach the coast of Central America as a major hurricane in a few days. The NHC track forecast at days 4 and 5 shows the system weakening over land, however some of the track guidance keeps the system just off the coast on Honduras at that time. If a more northern track occurs, the system could be stronger at 96 and 120 h if it remains over water.

The depression is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. A strong mid-level ridge that lies over Florida and the western Atlantic should steer the cyclone west-southwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to begin sliding eastward, and a westward to west-northwestward motion should begin. On the foreast track, the cyclone is expected to approach the coast of Central America in 60-72 h. The track guidance is in good agreement through the first couple of days, but there is increasing cross-track spread after that time. The HMON, HWRF, and GFS show a track near or north of the coast of Honduras after 72 hours, while the ECMWF and UKMET are farther south. For now, the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the TCVA multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane while it approaches the coast of Central America, and there is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight.
  • 2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Thirty-One may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 14.2N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE Santa Marta, Colombia)
 12H  14/0000Z 14.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Santa Marta, Colombia)
 24H  14/1200Z 13.8N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Santa Marta, Colombia)
 36H  15/0000Z 13.9N  77.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua)
 48H  15/1200Z 14.1N  79.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 60H  16/0000Z 14.5N  80.9W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Nina Yari, NI)
 72H  16/1200Z 14.9N  82.7W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Irlaya, Honduras)
 96H  17/1200Z 15.2N  85.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE San Esteban, Honduras)
120H  18/1200Z 14.7N  88.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE El Nispero, Honduras)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Thu Nov 12, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located near the coast of the southeast U.S., and on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this system has changed little in organization this evening, a tropical depression will likely form within the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Interests in Honduras and Nicaragua should closely monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Thu Nov 12, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located near the coast of northeast Florida, and on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression will likely form within the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Thu Nov 12, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located inland over north Florida, and on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression will likely form within the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Wed Nov 11, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located west of Tampa, Florida, and on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better organized and a tropical depression will likely form by the weekend as it moves slowly westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Wed Nov 11, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Eta, located southwest of Tampa, Florida, and on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the disturbance reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Wed Nov 11, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located offshore the southwestern coast of Florida, and on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the disturbance reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Tue Nov 10, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just offshore the coast of western Cuba, and on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next couple of days. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Tue Nov 10, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just offshore the coast of western Cuba, and on Subtropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Tue Nov 10, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just offshore the coast of western Cuba, and on Subtropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

If this system is named, it will become Tropical Storm Iota.

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Video: Wednesday morning tropical weather update: Iota moves over El Salvador; two areas to watch