Tropical Storm Odalys

Post Tropical Storm Odalys Track 1900 Hours November 5 2020
Post Tropical Storm Odalys Track 1900 Hours November 5 2020

Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm Odalys – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05, 2020

Odalys has been devoid of any significant convection within 100 n mi of the center for more than 12 hours, and the system no longer meets the satellite-based criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on an expected gradual spin down of the circulation, which is supported by a Dvorak current-intensity satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt. An earlier 1725Z ASCAT-A pass contained a small patch of 34-kt winds located northwest of the center, and there is currently no convection in that same sector of the cyclone.

Post-tropical Odalys is currently located over marginal 26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures and within a very hostile vertical wind shear regime. The shear is expected to increase from the current 35 kt to more than 40 kt by 24 hours, which should prevent any significant and/or persistent convection from redeveloping near the low-level center. As a result, Odalys should continue to weaken and dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. A westward motion should continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest or southwest by Friday afternoon, with that motion continuing into the weekend until Odalys dissipates. The NHC official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track model TVCE.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odalys.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 18.6N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W   15 KT  15 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05, 2020

Deep convection associated with Odalys has largely dissipated over the past 6-9 h with just a remnant swirl of low clouds surrounding the center. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB continue to decrease and a recent ASCAT pass confirmed that the wind field has begun to spin down, with maximum sustained winds near 35 kt.

As anticipated, the combination of high southwesterly vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt and dry mid-level air around 40 percent as diagnosed from ECMWF-SHIPS guidance has lead to a collapse of deep central convection. Even though sea surface temperatures under Odalys remain marginally warm around 26 C, vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air are forecast to become even more hostile over the next 24 h. Therefore, the latest official forecast now anticipates Odalys to become a remnant low in 24 h. Degeneration to a remnant low could occur as quickly as this evening if organized deep convection does not redevelop soon.

The initial motion of the cyclone is estimated near 280/6 kt, and a due westward motion is expected within the next few hours. Odalys is now a shallow cyclone, and will primarily be steered by low-level northeasterly trade wind flow, gradually bending from a west to southwest heading over the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast track shows a slightly sharper turn to the the southwest now that the cyclone has become more shallow, but the official track remains near the track guidance consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 18.5N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05, 2020

Corrected to say dissipated for the 72 h forecast.

Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight ASCAT data.

The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by 36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near the center.

Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 18.3N 122.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04, 2020

Odalys has devolved into a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk of the deep convection displaced to the northeast of the now fully exposed low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. A 04/2142 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 40 kt also supports this intensity.

Odalys is now moving west-northwestward, or 295/09 kt. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn more westward during the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west as Odalys degenerates into a shallow low pressure system. By 48 hours and beyond, the remnant low is forecast to move west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of low-level northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple-consensus track model, TVCE.

The current southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear of near 30 kt is forecast to steadily increase to 40 kt during the next 72 hours. Sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 26 deg C will also help hasten the weakening process during that time, resulting in Odalys becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours, followed by dissipation in 96 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the simple-consensus intensity models IVCN and ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 18.1N 121.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04, 2020

The center of Odalys has become easier to find this afternoon. A well-defined low-level center has become apparent on visible satellite imagery, about 50 nm southwest of the deepest convection. Despite this somewhat disheveled appearance, a series of ASCAT passes earlier this afternoon found winds of 35-40 kt in a band north of the center. Allowing for a bit of instrument undersampling, and blending the latest SAB and TAFB satellite estimates, the initial intensity was raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.

Odalys continues to move northwestward this afternoon at 315/15 kt. The track forecast philosophy has remained largely unchanged. The storm will continue to head northwest in the short-term, situated between a deep-layer ridge over Mexico and a mid to upper-level trough located to its northeast. This same trough will likely generate high enough vertical wind shear to cause the low and mid level centers of Odalys to completely separate in the next 24 h, resulting in the low-level center of Odalys to bend west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of the low-level easterly trade winds. The latest track guidance is in good agreement on this evolution with only minor speed differences after Odalys becomes a shallow vortex and only small adjustments were made to the official forecast track.

Odalys may maintain its current intensity over the next 12 h if it is able to maintain active downshear convection. Thereafter, the southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase above 35 kt in the latest GFS-based SHIPS guidance. This should import very dry mid-level air near the center and will likely choke off any remaining convective bursts. Odalys is expected to become a shallow remnant low on Friday afternoon, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 17.7N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04, 2020

Over the last 6 h Odalys has exhibited a bursting pattern with cloud tops colder than -70C occurring to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. The center itself has been a bit difficult to locate overnight but is estimated to be on the southwest edge of this recent convective activity. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB were 35 kt and 45 kt respectively, but the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory out of respect for overnight ASCAT data that supported the lower value and the fact that the structure of the cyclone hasn’t changed much since then.

Odalys is now moving to the northwest with a similar forward motion 315/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue in the short term as the storm is being steered between a mid-level ridge centered over Northern Mexico to its northeast and a deep-layer trough centered to its northwest. After 24 h, Odalys is expect to become a shallow system as its convection gets stripped away by the deep layer trough. Its track will bend back west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of northeasterly trade wind flow associated with a low-level anticyclone off the southwestern US coast. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement of this evolution and only minor modifications were made to the forecast track owing to the slightly further north initial position.

While small fluctuations in intensity associated with periodic convective bursts are possible today, southwesterly vertical wind shear is already increasing over the system and will soon be importing very dry mid-level air over the low-level circulation. This will ultimately lead to the tropical storm’s demise as it moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast was held at the current intensity for the first 24 h with gradual weakening thereafter. Odalys is expected to become a remnant low by Friday and dissipate entirely by the end of the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 16.9N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03, 2020

Satellite images indicate that Odalys has not changed much since genesis earlier today. The cyclone still has a large curved band on the western side of the storm, but there is little organized convection to the east of the center. The overall circulation remains quite broad and appears elongated from northeast to southwest. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt at 0000Z, and the ADT and SATCON numbers from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are about the same. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

Odalys could strengthen slightly overnight and early Wednesday while it remains over warm water and in moderate wind shear conditions. However, the models agree that any opportunity for strengthening should end in about 24 hours when Odalys moves into a region of strong southerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear. The combination of the increasing shear, cooler waters, and drier and more stable air should cause Odalys to begin weakening by Wednesday night or early Thursday. The cyclone is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday, but that could occur even sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion, but at a slower pace, is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow Odalys should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 14.9N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  04/1200Z 16.0N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  05/0000Z 17.3N 120.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  05/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  06/0000Z 18.5N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  06/1200Z 18.1N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  07/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  08/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Tue Nov 03, 2020

The low-pressure area well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has become significantly better organized today. A curved band of deep convection is noted to the northwest of the low-level center, and a second weaker band is located to its southeast. Satellite-derived wind data indicate the low-level center is still somewhat broad, but it appears to have enough definition to justify starting advisories as a tropical cyclone. Recent ASCAT-B data show numerous 30+ kt wind barbs, with a couple barbs peaking at 33-34 kt in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Considering known under-sampling issues with this data source, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. Thus, the system has become a tropical storm, and advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Odalys.

Weak to moderate vertical wind shear and sufficient oceanic heat content may support modest strengthening during the next 12 h or so. By 24-36 h, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear associated with an approaching shortwave trough to the northwest, along with intrusions of drier mid-level air, will induce a steady and perhaps rapid weakening trend. The system is forecast to weaken to a depression by 48 h and a remnant low by 96 h, but this could occur even sooner if the stronger shear values noted in the SHIPS guidance are realized. The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests the system could be devoid of deep convection as early as day 3 of the forecast period.

The storms estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. A slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as Odalys is steered northwestward by a low- to mid-level ridge centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should gradually slow down and turn westward as this ridge weakens due to the aforementioned shortwave trough. By 72 h, the storm will be steered southwestward by another low- to mid-level ridge building to its northwest. The track models are in decent agreement, and the official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope closest to the track consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 14.1N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  04/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  04/1800Z 16.8N 120.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  05/0600Z 17.9N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  05/1800Z 18.5N 123.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  06/0600Z 18.5N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  06/1800Z 18.0N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  07/1800Z 16.0N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Tue Nov 3, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. Satellite imagery indicates showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over 700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continue to become better organized. If this development trend continues, a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Mon Nov 2, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a little over 700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM PST Mon Nov 2, 2020

  • For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have increased slightly in coverage since yesterday near a broad area of low pressure located over 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Mon Nov 2, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located over 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM PST Sun Nov 1, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM PST Sun Nov 1, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Sun Nov 1, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 31, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad trough of low pressure is forecast to develop southwest of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Oct 31, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad trough of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Oct 31, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south or southwest of the coast of southern Mexico by Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Oct 30, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south or southwest of the coast of southern Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 30, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of southern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Oct 30, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of southern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 29, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of southern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 29, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of southern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Oct 29, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as the system moves westward or west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Oct 28, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as the system moves westward or west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 28, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as the system moves gradually westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Oct 28, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development over the weekend into early next week as the system slowly moves westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 27, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week. Environmental conditions should be conducive for some gradual development this weekend and into early next week as the system slowly moves westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Environmental conditions should be conducive for some gradual development this weekend and into early next week as the system slowly moves westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 27, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Some further development will be possible thereafter and continue through the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Oct 27, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Some further development will be possible thereafter and continue through the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

If this storm system is named, it will be named Tropical Storm Odalys.

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