Tropical Storm Eta

Post Tropical Storm Eta Track 0400 Hours November 13 2020
Post Tropical Storm Eta Track 0400 Hours November 13 2020

Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm Eta – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM EST Fri Nov 13, 2020 (see 10 pm video below)

While the cyclone is still generating a cluster of strong convection to the northeast of the center, satellite imagery, surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that Eta has merged with a baroclinic zone and become an extratropical cyclone off the southeastern coast of the United States. The scatterometer data showed vectors of 40-50 kt along a front or convergence zone northeast of the center, but these vectors were in the strong convective region and their reliability is uncertain. This, the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 40 kt. Eta is forecast to strengthen as a baroclinic low until the system is absorbed by another low pressure area in about 48 h.

The initial motion is 060/18. The post-tropical cyclone cyclone should continue this general motion with an increase in forward speed until it is absorbed.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Eta.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 33.3N  76.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW MYrtle Beach, SC)
 12H  13/1800Z 35.0N  73.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Nags Head, NC)
 24H  14/0600Z 37.9N  66.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 36H  14/1800Z 41.1N  57.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
 48H  15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12, 2020 

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation of Eta is becoming stretched as it interacts with a frontal boundary just to its west. Deep convection is mostly confined to the northern side of the system and in patches associated with its trailing trough. Since buoy 41004 off the South Carolina coast recently reported sustained winds of 37 kt, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt for this advisory.

The models show the circulation of Eta continuing to lose definition overnight, and it is possible that the tropical storm will open up into a trough soon. Whatever is left of Eta will merge with the nearby front on Friday, causing it to transition into an extratropical cyclone. The non-tropical low is then forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the north Atlantic. Eta, or its remnants, will likely strengthen slightly before it dissipates on Saturday due to the predicted faster forward speed and baroclinic influences.

Eta is moving northeastward at 15 kt. An even faster motion to the northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates as it moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. This should take Eta, or its remnants, gradually away from the southeast U.S. coast.

Deep-layer moisture partly associated with Eta has spread northward along a frontal boundary across eastern North Carolina and just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 32.3N  79.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Charleston, SC)
 12H  13/1200Z 33.6N  76.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Myrtle Beach, SC)
 24H  14/0000Z 36.1N  70.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 36H  14/1200Z 39.3N  62.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 48H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12, 2020 

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the center of Eta moved off the Georgia coast around 18z, a little farther north than previously anticipated. The satellite presentation of the storm has become quite ragged with the primary convective band located well east of the center. The circulation has also become more elongated, with the strongest winds occurring east of the center over the Atlantic waters. Based on the continued degradation of Eta’s organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 35 kt. Little change in strength is anticipated through early Friday due to moderate to strong westerly shear. The UKMET and ECMWF models continue to show some re-intensification of the system as an extratropical low by late Friday, and that is what is indicated in the official foreast. A plausible alternative scenario that is favored by the GFS is for the circulation to become elongated and dissipate along an approaching frontal boundary on Friday.

Eta is moving northeastward at about 16 kt. The cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so ahead of a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move across the Great Lakes Region and approach the northeastern United States on Friday. Only slight modifications to the previous official forecast were required, and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical models.

Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across portions of eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic coast is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 31.6N  80.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Tybee Island, GA)
 12H  13/0600Z 33.2N  77.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Myrtle Beach, SC)
 24H  13/1800Z 35.6N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Nags Head, NC)
 36H  14/0600Z 38.7N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12, 2020 

The center of Eta made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida with an estimated intensity of 45 kt shortly after the release of the previous NHC advisory package. Since that time, the center of Eta has moved across the northern portion of the Florida peninsula. Some weakening has occurred, but ship and buoy observations along and just off the northeast Florida coast support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Little change in strength is expected when Eta moves over the western Atlantic tonight and early Friday due to moderate to strong southwesterly shear. The ECMWF and UKMET models indicate that Eta could strengthen after it merges with a frontal zone and becomes extratropical well offshore of the east coast of the United States late Friday and Friday night. The NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification of the extratropical cyclone before it is absorbed by a large low pressure area over the western Atlantic on Saturday.

Eta is moving northeastward at about 13 kt. Eta should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within the mid-latitude westerlies, ahead of a trough that will move across the Great Lakes region on Friday. The new official forecast is again a little faster than the previous NHC track, but the latest guidance did not require much cross-track change.

Deep-layer moisture from that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across the Carolinas is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area along portions of the northeast Florida Coast through early this afternoon.
  • 2. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida lasting into the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 30.2N  81.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Jacksonville, FL)
 12H  13/0000Z 32.0N  79.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilton Head Island, SC)
 24H  13/1200Z 34.1N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Wilmington, NC)
 36H  14/0000Z 37.3N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 48H  14/1200Z 40.5N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE New York City, NY)
 60H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11, 2020 

Deep convection intensified over the northern portion of the circulation of Eta over the past few hours, however the overall cloud pattern has not become better organized this evening. Adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 55 kt, with the central pressure holding about steady for now. Since the storm will be moving over progressively cooler waters, with strong west-southwesterly shear and some incursions of drier air, gradual weakening is likely up to landfall tomorrow morning. A more rapid weakening is likely after the center crosses the coast tomorrow. The dynamical guidance does not indicate significant restrengthening after Eta emerges into the Atlantic within 24 hours, although some baroclinic forcing could allow the system to maintain its intensity for awhile. The cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a frontal zone in 60-72 hours if not sooner.

Center fixes indicate that the motion continues to be just a little to the east of due north, or 010/10 kt. A slight turn toward the right is expected soon, and over the next couple of days Eta should move north-northeastward to northeastward, ahead of a broad mid-level trough, until dissipation. The official track forecast follows the general trajectory of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus, but is somewhat slower than the consensus guidance in deference to the latest GFS prediction.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected tonight and early Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwanee River, and are possible tonight on Thursday from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across West and Central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 28.3N  83.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hudson, FL)
 12H  12/1200Z 29.7N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Gainesville, FL)
 24H  13/0000Z 31.8N  79.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Tybee Island, GA)
 36H  13/1200Z 33.7N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Southport, NC)
 48H  14/0000Z 35.5N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Nags Heasd, NC)
 60H  14/1200Z 37.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ENE Virginia Beach, VA)
 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EST Wed Nov 11, 2020 

Corrected to show dissipated at 72H.

Almost as quickly as Eta regained hurricane status, it then lost it shortly thereafter. Dry air entrainment eroded most of the significant convection around the center this afternoon until a slight resurgence recently developed. However, the overall convective pattern has changed little with the bulk of the convection located primarily northeast through southeast of the center. The last recon pass through Eta showed that the central pressure had increased to 990 mb. Recent Doppler velocities of around 70 kt between 5000-6000 ft east of the center supports surface winds of about 56-58 kt, so the 1800Z intensity of 60 kt will also be kept for the 21Z advisory intensity.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/10 kt. Eta is expected to move between north and north-northeastward tonight as the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge to the east. The new NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Eta turning northeastward after 12 hours, with the cyclone making landfall along the western coast of the northern Florida peninsula in the region from Cedar Key to Crystal River. Eta is then expected to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida as a weakening tropical cyclone, and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday morning or early afternoon. By 72 hours, if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with a frontal system off of the southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Eta will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next 12 hours, with SSTs decreasing to less than 25 deg C just before the cyclone makes landfall along the Florida coast. The cooler waters, in conjunction with continued dry air entrainment and increasing westerly vertical wind shear, should result in at least gradual weakening until landfall occurs, followed by more rapid weakening as Eta moves over the northern Florida peninsula. Although the official forecast calls for Eta to be a tropical storm as it nears the northeast coast of Florida, a Tropical Watch or Warning are not required at this time since any tropical-storm-force will likely be occurring over water and not inland or along the coast due to Eta’s poor convective structure that is expected at that time. Eta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to even stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 72 hours due to frontal interaction.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected this evening and tonight along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible tonight and early Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across west and central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in south Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding are expected across portions of west and north Florida through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 27.3N  83.6W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Sarasota, FL)
 12H  12/0600Z 28.6N  83.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Pine Island, FL)
 24H  12/1800Z 30.4N  81.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Jacksonville, FL)
 36H  13/0600Z 32.0N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilton Head Island, SC)
 48H  13/1800Z 33.8N  75.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Wilmington, NC)
 60H  14/0600Z 36.0N  69.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 11, 2020 

Eta became much better organized between 0900-1000 UTC this morning, including the formation of a well-defined, closed circular eye about 20-25 nmi wide. However, since then the satellite and radar signature have become more ragged as dry air has entrained into the western semicircle of the cyclone and has also penetrated into the inner-core region, resulting in a significant degradation of the convection in that portion of Eta’s circulation. A couple of hours ago, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft penetrated the remnant eye feature and measured a central pressure of 984-983 mb, and also measured 850-mb maximum flight-level winds of 83-85 kt east of the center just outside of a deep convective band. WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Tampa Bay (KTBW) indicated a long fetch of Doppler velocities of 80-88 kt at 13,500 ft directly above and east of the aircraft report, and this was within a band of strong convection characterized by radar reflectivities of 45-49 dBZ. Based on the combination of the wind data and the relatively low central pressure, Eta was upgraded to hurricane status at 1200 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 015/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is excellent agreement on Eta moving north-northeastward for the next 24 hours around the the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward across the western Atlantic to just off the Florida east coast. Thereafter, the cyclone will move north of the ridge axis and come under the influence of southwesterly to westerly mid- to upper-level flow associated with an approaching cold front, which should result in a faster northeastward motion. By 72 hours, if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with the aforementioned frontal system off of the southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies just a tad east or to the right of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

It is quite possible that Eta has peaked in intensity based on the rapid erosion of the convective pattern and an eye feature no longer evident in radar or passive microwave satellite imagery. However, there still remains a band of strong convection in the northeastern quadrant that contains Doppler radar velocity values of 80-88 kt between 6000-9000 ft, which corresponds to equivalent surface winds of at least 65 kt. As long as that feature persists, hurricane-force winds are possible along immediate coastal areas within the hurricane watch area. The latest GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows significantly drier air wrapping into the center by 24 hours, along with the vertical wind shear increasing to more than 20 kt from the west at that time. That combination of unfavorable environmental parameters is expected to lead to gradual weakening until landfall occurs in about 24 hours, followed by rapid weakening after landfall. Eta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to even stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 96 hours due to frontal interaction.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.
  • 2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown this evening and early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected later today along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible early Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and south Florida and spread northward across portions of west and north Florida today through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida today, especially across previously inundated areas, and across portions of west and central Florida today through Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 26.2N  83.7W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Bonita Springs, FL)
 12H  12/0000Z 27.5N  83.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St Petersburg, FL)
 24H  12/1200Z 28.9N  82.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Crystal River, FL)
 36H  13/0000Z 30.5N  81.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Franklintown, FL)
 48H  13/1200Z 31.6N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Savannah, GA)
 60H  14/0000Z 32.5N  76.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Charleston, SC)
 72H  14/1200Z 34.1N  73.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Wilmington, NC)
 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10, 2020 

Eta has been maintaining a large cluster of deep convection over the northeastern portion of its circulation this evening. NWS Doppler radar data from Key West is showing a well-defined mid-level circulation in that area, but NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data so far still indicates that the low-level center is located near the southwestern portion of the convective mass. However, it is possible that the center will re-form closer to the mid-level center overnight. The plane has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt, and SFMR winds of 52 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt.

Eta’s initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/8 kt. There has once again been a significant eastward shift in the 18Z dynamical model guidance, with the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models all showing a faster north-northeastward motion toward the Florida west coast. As a result, the NHC forecast has again been shifted eastward and lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus through 36 h. After that time, the NHC track is slower and west of the bulk of the consensus aids as the ECMWF still shows Eta weakening and lingering near the Florida Big Bend. While the new track has been shifted significantly eastward after 36 h or so, some continuity with the previous forecast is maintained with a slower northward motion between the two model camps. While there is increasing confidence in the faster north-northeastward motion in the short-term, there is still considerable uncertainty by 48 hours and beyond, and further adjustments to the track forecast could be required overnight.

Some additional strengthening is likely overnight and Wednesday while Eta remains over warm water and within an area of low-to-moderate vertical wind shear. If the center re-forms closer to the deep convection, Eta could re-gain hurricane status within the next 12-24 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs are likely to result in some weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA model guidance.

Given the eastward shift in the track and the expected faster motion of Eta, a Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are being issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida. Additional warnings could be required early Wednesday.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may be needed overnight.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and south Florida through tonight, and spread northward across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding is possible in south Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 23.8N  84.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Viñales, Cuba)
 12H  11/1200Z 25.0N  84.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Key West, FL)
 24H  12/0000Z 26.5N  84.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Fort Myers, FL)
 36H  12/1200Z 27.7N  83.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St Petersburg, FL)
 48H  13/0000Z 28.8N  83.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Homosassa, FL)
 60H  13/1200Z 29.7N  82.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Tioga, GA)
 72H  14/0000Z 30.3N  82.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW Sanderson, FL)
 96H  15/0000Z 30.8N  82.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Folkston, GA)
120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM CST Tue Nov 10, 2020 

Eta’s convective structure has changed little since the previous advisory. A CDO-like feature with cloud tops colder than -70C has persisted, with some overshooting tops of -80C to -85C located east and southeast of the center. Recent passive microwave satellite data indicates that Eta is still sheared from the northwest, with an intermittent mid-level eye feature showing up. Satellite classifications have essentially remained unchanged, with SAB reporting 45-55 kt and TAFB reporting 55 kt. The initial intensity remains at 50 kt based on a blend of these satellite classifications and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimates of 45-48 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now northward, or 360/06 kt. The biggest surprise is the large eastward shift in all of the NHC model guidance, which was possibly due at least in part to all of the dropsondes that the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft dropped around Eta earlier this morning, All of the guidance is now in good agreement on a broad, deep-layer trough moving eastward across the south-central and southeastern United States, which will erode the subtropical ridge to the north of Eta that has been impeding Eta’s poleward progress he past couple of days. This generally northward to northeastward steering pattern is expected to persist through the entire 120-h forecast period, with only slight shifts east or west of he current forecast track due to how vertically deep Eta remains when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Apalachee Bay in a few days. The current forecast track maintains Eta as at least a moderate tropical cyclone through the period, with only a slight bend back toward the northwest when the system is expected to interact with an approaching frontal system. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted about 150 n mi east of the previous advisory track at 96 and 120 hours, and further eastward shifts in the track may be required, closer to the consensus models TCVA/TVCN and NOAA-HCCA.

Eta is forecast to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear environment and over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 36 hours or so. Intermittent entrainment of dry mid-level air should prevent any rapid strengthening from occurring, but Eta could still become a hurricane between in 24 to 36 h before more significant shear begins to affect the cyclone. By day 3 and beyond, increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear combined with cooler SSTs should cause Eta to weaken. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and is a little below the consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, all of which make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours.

Due to the expected northwesterly shear after 36 hours, the 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the eastern semicircle, which is the side of the cyclone where most of the deep convection and associated stronger winds will be located. Given this and the eastward adjustment to the track forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida west coast, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches may be needed tonight.
  • 2. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight, then potentially spread up the west coast of the Florida Peninsula Wednesday through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually along portions of West Florida and the Sun Coast. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 23.2N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Viñales, Cuba)
 12H  11/0600Z 24.1N  84.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 24H  11/1800Z 25.6N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Naples, FL)
 36H  12/0600Z 26.9N  84.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Venice, FL)
 48H  12/1800Z 27.9N  84.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Clearwater, FL)
 60H  13/0600Z 28.7N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Crystal River, FL)
 72H  13/1800Z 29.1N  84.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Eastpoint, FL)
 96H  14/1800Z 29.7N  84.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Dog Island, FL)
120H  15/1800Z 30.7N  84.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Sneads, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10, 2020

A significant increase in deep convection has occurred since the previous advisory this morning, including a CDO-like feature with cloud tops of -85C to -87C very near the low-level center. However, recent passive microwave satellite images indicate that the center is displaced to the northwest of the coldest cloud tops due to modest northwesterly mid- and upper-level vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is based on an average of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB.

Although the initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt, Eta has essentially been stationary for the past 9 hours or so. Radar data from Casablanca, Cuba, and satellite fixes suggest that Eta has been making a small cyclonic/counter-clockwise loop within the larger gyre in which the small center is embedded. Until the gyre breaks down or moves northward, there will be little poleward motion by Eta today. By tonight, however, the global and regional models are in good agreement on a broad mid-tropospheric trough moving eastward across the central and eastern United States, which is expected to erode a subtropical ridge to the north of the Eta, allowing both the larger gyre and Eta to move slowly northward. This steering pattern is expected to continue through about 72 hours. Thereafter, the model guidance diverges significantly between motions ranging from westward (GFS/GFS-ensemble) to northward (ECMWF) to northeastward (COAMPS-TC).

The 96-120 hour motions are directly related to the strength of the cyclone, with a much weaker Eta forecast to move westward and a stronger hurricane solution moving northeastward. The latter scenario seems unlikely given that the vertical shear is forecast to increase from the northwest and west at more than 25 kt, which acts to weaken Eta and also impart a slight eastward tug on the system. As a result, the official forecast track calls for Eta to basically move slowly northward through the 120-h forecast period and gradually weaken into a shallow cyclone that drifts northward. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA, NOAA-HCCA, and the Florida Superensemble (FSSE).

Eta is expected to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear environment and over warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C for the next couple of days. Although the surrounding environment is expected to be somewhat dry, the other two favorable environmental factors should allow for some strengthening into Thursday, Thereafter, increasing shear from the northwest and west, along with drier mid-level air and cooler SSTs are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this weakening remains uncertain, and depends heavily on how much Eta re-intensifies over the next couple of days. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and is a little below the consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, all of which make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba.
  • 2. Eta could approach the northeastern or north-central U.S. Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 22.7N  85.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Mantua, Cuba)
 12H  11/0000Z 23.1N  85.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Mantua, Cuba)
 24H  11/1200Z 24.0N  85.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 36H  12/0000Z 25.0N  85.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Key West, FL)
 48H  12/1200Z 25.9N  85.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Naples, FL)
 60H  13/0000Z 26.6N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Venice, FL)
 72H  13/1200Z 27.2N  85.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Sarasota, FL)
 96H  14/1200Z 28.6N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Panama City, FL)
120H  15/1200Z 30.1N  86.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Destin, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

Eta’s convective structure appears to be gradually becoming better organized this evening. The center is located near the northern edge of a band that wraps around the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation. Recent subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were 3.0, which still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. With Eta’s structure gradually improving and a forecast for the cyclone to remain over SSTs of around 28C and in generally low vertical wind shear conditions, some re-strengthening is likely during the next 24-36 hours. Although the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta remaining just below hurricane strength, there is a possibility that the storm will briefly regain hurricane status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so. By 48 hours, when the cyclone moves over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are likely to result in weakening, and like the previous forecast, the new NHC forecast indicates that Eta could weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the period. Some of the global model guidance suggests that Eta could weaken even faster than indicated below after 72 hours.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Eta is moving southwestward but a little slower than before at around 8 kt. Eta should slow its forward progress overnight and then meander over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as steering current collapse. In 36-48 hours, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. After 72 hours, the spread in the guidance increases when Eta is expected to be weaker and be steered by the low-level flow. Most of the guidance shows a northwestward to northward motion at that time period but have varying forward speed. The NHC track shows a slow north-northwest motion late in the period to account for these differences. There is lower than normal confidence in the latter portion of the track forecast given the large spread in the guidance.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida tonight. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next several days.
  • 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 23.2N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Vinales, Cuba)
 12H  10/1200Z 22.8N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mantua, Cuba)
 24H  11/0000Z 23.4N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Las Tumbas, Cuba)
 36H  11/1200Z 24.6N  85.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 48H  12/0000Z 25.8N  85.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Naples, FL)
 60H  12/1200Z 26.6N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Fort Myers, FL)
 72H  13/0000Z 27.0N  85.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Sarasota, FL)
 96H  14/0000Z 27.7N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St Petersburg, FL)
120H  15/0000Z 29.0N  86.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (Port St Joe, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EST Mon Nov 09, 2020 

Eta’s convective pattern now consists of mainly a compact ring of inner-core convection with cloud tops of -60C to -70C. The earlier main outer convective band located in the northeast quadrant has weakened considerably, and the inflow into that feature is now being shunted westward into Eta’s inner-core region. Visible and water vapor satellite images also indicate that weak anticyclonic cirrus outflow has recently developed over the inner core. The last recon pass through Eta a few hours ago showed a pressure rise to 997 mb that was followed by a pressure decrease to 995 mb on the last pass. Both flight-level and SFMR-derived surface winds had also decreased and only supported around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is southwestward, or 235/14 kt. Mid- and upper-level water vapor images show a cut-off low located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. This feature, in conjunction with a deep-layer ridge extending across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to produce northeasterly flow that will keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36 hours. However, the cyclone will gradually slow down during that time as a broad deep-layer trough moving across the central and south-central U.S. weakens the ridge over the Gulf, causing Eta to stall or make a small loop around 36 hours. By 48-60 hours and beyond, the aforementioned trough is forecast to lift out to the northeast, allowing at least some of the Gulf ridge to build back in, slowing down Eta’s poleward progress or even possibly trapping the cyclone over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The global and regional models are in very good agreement on the developing track scenario through about 72 hours, and then diverge significantly thereafter, with the bulk of the guidance taking a much weaker Eta northwestward or northward into strong shear conditions. However, the Navy COAMPS-TC model strengthens Eta to near major hurricane status and takes the cyclone northeastward, while the HMON model also intensifies the cyclone into a major hurricane, but leaves it trapped over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latter two scenarios are considered to be outliers due to the abundance of very dry air surrounding Eta and an expected increase in the deep-layer shear to more than 25 kt by 96 and 120 hours. The new official forecast track is to the left or west of the previous advisory track, but not as far west as the consensus models, which take a significantly weaker and more shallow cyclone toward the north-central Gulf coast.

Some re-strengthening appears more likely now that Eta has shed a lot of outer convective baggage and has become more compact, and has developed a donut ring of inner-core convection and some modest upper-level outflow in all quadrants. Eta’s best opportunity for intensification should come during the next 36 hours when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and the deep-layer vertical wind shear gradually decreases to less than 10 kt. Although occasional intrusions of very dry air will prevent rapid intensification from occurring, some gradual strengthening seems to be in order given the other favorable environmental conditions and the cyclone’s new smaller size. By 48 hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause steady weakening of the cyclone through end of the forecast period. However, if Eta takes a more northwestward track like some of the NHC model guidance is indicating, then the cyclone will get sheared more and weaken sooner than indicated in the official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and but is lower than intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA, which re-strengthen Eta to a 65-70 kt hurricane.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Additional flash flooding is possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next several days.
  • 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 23.7N  84.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Vinales, Cuba)
 12H  10/0600Z 23.2N  85.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mantua, Cuba)
 24H  10/1800Z 23.4N  85.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Las Tumbas, Cuba)
 36H  11/0600Z 24.3N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 48H  11/1800Z 25.6N  85.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Naples, FL)
 60H  12/0600Z 26.5N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Fort Myers, FL)
 72H  12/1800Z 27.2N  85.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Sarasota, FL)
 96H  13/1800Z 28.0N  85.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Clearwater, FL)
120H  14/1800Z 28.6N  85.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depresssion (ESE Panama City, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09, 2020 

Eta’s overall appearance in satellite radar imagery has become quite fragmented, with inner-core convection having become vertically shallow and broken due to mid-level dry air entrainment. Some of the recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight-level data indicate that dry air has worked way down to the 850-mb level based dewpoint spreads of more than 8 deg C. In the northeastern quadrant, a large curved convective band persists that has produced widespread rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches along with strong gusty winds across portions of the southern Florida peninsula. However, even that band of thunderstorms has become less pronounced in both satellite radar imagery over the past few hours. Doppler velocities over land and over water have also come decreased significantly, and the latest reconnaissance flight-level (58 kt) and SFMR surface wind data (49 kt) supports lowering the intensity to 50 kt. The decrease in intensity is also supported by the gradual rise in the central pressure, which is now up to 994 mb.

Eta has finally made the expected southwestward turn, and the initial motion is now 235/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and near the U.S. east coast is expected to keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36 hours, accompanied by a steady decrease in forward speed. Steering currents are forecast to collapse by 36-48 hours, causing Eta to possibly stall and/or make a small loop just northwest of western Cuba. By 60 hours and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough currently located over the Rocky Mountains is forecast to move eastward and gradually erode the portion of the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, allowing Eta slowly move northward to north-northeastward through 20 hours. However, there remains considerable divergence between the global models on days 4 and 5 with regards to how far north Eta will move, with the ECMWF showing a more northward progression while the GFS and UKMET models show the trough lifting out and not eroding the ridge as much. For now, the official forecast track remains a compromise of these two extremes, and shows a slow poleward progression on days 3-5, similar to the consensus models TCVA and NOAA-HCCA.

Eta could still re-strengthen some during the 24-48 hour period when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and the wind shear gradually decrease to less than 10 kt. However, occasional intrusions of very dry air will likely continue to plague the system, which would prevent any rapid intensification from occurring and could keep Eta from regaining hurricane status. By 48 hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air should cause a gradual weakening of the cyclone through end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern and central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.
  • 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 24.6N  83.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Key West, FL)
 12H  10/0000Z 23.9N  84.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 24H  10/1200Z 23.6N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Vinales, Cuba)
 36H  11/0000Z 24.5N  85.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 48H  11/1200Z 25.6N  85.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Naples, FL)
 60H  12/0000Z 26.5N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Fort Myers, FL)
 72H  12/1200Z 27.2N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Sarasota, FL)
 96H  13/1200Z 28.4N  84.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Spring Hill, FL)
120H  14/1200Z 29.6N  83.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cross City, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08, 2020

Although deep convection has waned near the center of Eta since this afternoon, radar imagery continues to show a ring of low-topped convection around the center, with some deep convection returning over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Doppler radar velocities of 64-68 kt around 5000 ft, and recent NOAA reconnaissance aircraft observations support maintaining the 55 kt initial intensity. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of around 993 mb.

Since Eta has a fairly large radius of maximum winds and a dry slot that has wrapped into the inner core, it appears that any short-term strengthening should be slow to occur. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for a little less strengthening until Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. Regardless of whether Eta becomes a hurricane near the Florida Keys, there is little difference in impacts between a 55-to-60-kt tropical storm and a 65-kt hurricane. After 24 hours, Eta is forecast to move over warmer sea surface temperatures in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical shear is forecast to decrease. This is expected to allow for some strengthening and Eta is forecast re-gain hurricane strengthen by Tuesday. Gradual weakening is predicted between 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS/LGEM models during the first couple of days, and in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model thereafter.

Eta has turned northwestward this evening around the north side of a cut-off low located just south of western Cuba. The tropical cyclone should turn west-northwestward to westward overnight, and a southwestward motion is expected on Tuesday as Eta pivots around the upper-low. In 36-48 h, Eta is expected to slow down and possibly stall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as the steering currents weakening. In about 3 days, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. The models that maintain Eta has a deeper system show a faster northeastward motion late in the period, whereas models that weaken Eta slow its northward progression by day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the model consensus at 96 and 120 h, and is similar to the previous advisory.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible across the urban areas of southeast Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in Cuba, and significant flash and urban flooding are possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.
  • 2. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away from Eta’s center across the southern and central portions of the Florida peninsula.
  • 3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
  • 4. Eta is forecast to approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and could bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 24.6N  80.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Duck Key. FL)
 12H  09/1200Z 24.9N  82.6W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 24H  10/0000Z 24.2N  84.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 36H  10/1200Z 23.6N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Vinales, Cuba)
 48H  11/0000Z 24.2N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Key West, FL)
 60H  11/1200Z 25.5N  84.9W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Everglades City, FL)
 72H  12/0000Z 26.6N  84.6W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Venice, FL)
 96H  13/0000Z 28.2N  83.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Port Richey, FL)
120H  14/0000Z 30.0N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Middleburg, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EST Sun Nov 08, 2020 

Eta’s appearance in radar and satellite imagery has changed little since the previous advisory and the last reconnaissance mission a few hours ago, with a ragged mid-level eye-like feature briefly wrapping up for less than an hour before quickly decaying. Average velocity values from the Miami, Florida, NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radar have occasionally been as high as 60 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft ASL to the north and northeast of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt for this advisory. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta around 0000Z this evening.

The initial motion estimate is 325/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast reasoning from the last 36 hours. Eta is now moving northwestward around the northeastern side of an upper-level low that has formed over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. The combined easterly flow between the upper-low and a deep-layer ridge located near the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast is expected to force Eta westward overnight and then turn the cyclone slowly southwestward in the 24-48 hour period, with the cyclone possibly stalling just west of the lower Florida Keys when steering currents collapse around 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough is forecast to move from the U.S. west coast eastward over the central U.S. by 96 hours, and then over the eastern U.S. by 120 hours, which will erode the western portion of the ridge and act to gradually lift Eta northeastward toward northern Florida. The latest NHC model guidance has shifted slightly northward, possibly due to the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft synoptic track dropsonde observations from earlier this morning, and now shows the center of Eta making landfall in the middle or lower Florida Keys late tonight and early Monday. The new NHC official track forecast has been nudged northward close to the consensus models HCCA and TCVA. It should be noted that although the latest model guidance and track forecast shows landfall in the Florida Keys, the strongest winds are occurring, and are expected to occur, well to the north and east of the center.

Satellite imagery indicates that a pronounced dry slot has wrapped into the eastern portion of Eta’s circulation, with radar data suggesting that it has occasionally penetrated into the inner core region as well, eroding the thunderstorm activity in the southern portion of the aforementioned eye-like feature. However, with the vertical shear forecast to steadily decrease from the current 25 kt down to less than 10 kt by 24 hours while Eta is moving over 28.5 deg C SSTs, strengthening is expected late tonight during the convective maximum period and continuing into Monday, resulting in Eta intensifying into a hurricane during that time. Environmental conditions are expected to remain somewhat favorable for Eta to maintain hurricane status through 60 hours, followed by gradual weakening from 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear of 20-25 kt and entrainment of very dry mid-level air. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory, and remains above the model guidance through 36 hours and is a little below the guidance thereafter.

Based on ASCAT data and surface observations, the wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast quadrants.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away from Eta’s center across the southern and central portions of the Florida peninsula.
  • 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and will spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life- threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Significant flash and urban flooding are also possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 23.9N  79.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 12H  09/0600Z 24.7N  81.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Boot Key, FL)
 24H  09/1800Z 24.6N  83.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Key West, FL)
 36H  10/0600Z 23.6N  84.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Vinales, Cuba)
 48H  10/1800Z 24.0N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Vinales, Cuba)
 60H  11/0600Z 25.1N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Everglades City, FL)
 72H  11/1800Z 25.8N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Naples, FL)
 96H  12/1800Z 27.1N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Sarasota, FL)
120H  13/1800Z 29.0N  82.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Yankeetown, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08, 2020 

Eta remains a sheared tropical storm, although the low-level center has become embedded a little farther into the convective cloud mass. Cuban radar data from Camaguey indicate that Eta’s center has moved back over water and is now located just offshore the east-central coast of Cuba. Radar imagery also indicates that a fairly impressive band of deep convection wraps more than half way around the center, especially in the western semicircle. Cirrus outflow has expanded in the southern semicircle, and indication that the shear may be decreasing somewhat. However, water vapor satellite imagery still shows a fair amount of dry mid-/upper-level air impinging on the cyclone from the southwest. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a report of 850-mb flight-level winds of 70 kt and reliable SFMR winds of 55-57 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 355/10 kt. Eta is interacting with a sharp mid-/upper-level, negatively tilted trough that extends east-southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The eastern end of the trough is forecast to develop into a cutoff low alter today, which will act to turn Eta northwestward by this afternoon, and westward later tonight. The complex interaction between these two features is forecast to continue through 72 hours, resulting in the development of weak steering currents and Eta slowing down and possibly stalling near or just west of the Florida Keys by day 3. Thereafter, the global and regional models show widely varying solutions ranging from a motion toward the south or southwest (UKMET) toward Yucatan, to slow northward (ECMWF) or northeastward motion (GFS/HWRF) over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast lies to the north, or to the right, of the 12Z interpolated models and consensus models (due to the interpolater possibly having some problems handling the sharp westward turn that Eta is forecast to make), and lies close to the previous advisory track and a blend of the operational 00Z ECMWF, and 06Z GFS and UKMET model tracks.

Now that Eta’s center is back over water, gradual re-strengthening is expected to begin later this afternoon. The global models are forecasting to vertical wind shear to steadily decrease across the center for the next next 48 hours as Eta moves north of the cutoff low and into a col small region region between the low and an upper-level trough moving eastward across northern Florida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that the shear will decrease to less than 10 kt by 36 hours, but the shear will likely decrease sooner since SHIPS model uses winds that extend out 500 km (270 nmi) from the center, which are not always representative of the wind flow near the center.

With favorable low-shear conditions and sea-surface temperatures warmer than 28 deg C, the only hindering factor appears to be proximity to dry mid-level air, which could get entrained into the inner core and inhibit development of deep convection in that part of the cyclone. For now, the new NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, which is above the model guidance up to 36 hours and a little below the guidance thereafter, and shows Eta at 65 kt or Category 1 hurricane intensity in the 24-72 hour period. However, it is certainly possibly that if dry air does not penetrate into Eta’s inner core later today, then the cyclone could become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. For this reason, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Keys.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.
  1. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
  • 3. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys by early Monday where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin in the Florida Keys by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are also expected and hurricane conditions are possible for portions of the southern Florida peninsula where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta’s center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.
  • 4. A dangerous storm surge is expected in portions of the Florida Keys where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning and Watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 22.5N  79.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cayo Santa María, Cuba)
 12H  09/0000Z 24.1N  79.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 24H  09/1200Z 24.5N  82.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Key West, FL)
 36H  10/0000Z 23.9N  84.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Key West, FL)
 48H  10/1200Z 23.8N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNE Harlem, Cuba)
 60H  11/0000Z 24.0N  85.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Mantua, Cuba)
 72H  11/1200Z 24.9N  85.2W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Key West, FL)
 96H  12/1200Z 26.2N  84.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Naples, FL)
120H  13/1200Z 26.9N  83.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Venice, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 07, 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Eta has continued to strengthen. An abbreviated mission found that the pressure had dropped to 991 mb, with believable SFMR winds of 55 kt. Since the plane left, the cloud pattern has not become better organized, and perhaps some shear is affecting the cyclone. Thus, the initial wind speed is kept at 55 kt.

The storm continues to move to the northeast tonight. While the overall synoptic pattern remains the same, there has been a big change to note with the track forecast, with a notable south and west trend with almost all of the guidance on Sunday and beyond. It appears that the system becomes more involved with a closed low forming near western Cuba tomorrow, which causes a sharper and faster left turn near the Florida Straits or Keys. The new NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, but is well north of the bulk of the guidance due to continuity concerns, and future southward and faster shifts are possible. I should mention that even if the forecast does shift farther south, tropical-storm-force winds will likely cover much of the southern and central Florida peninsula due to the expected growth of Eta. Beyond Florida, this one of those times where the track uncertainty is much larger than normal, so check back tomorrow for further updates as big long-range changes are possible.

Eta is likely to maintain its intensity before landfall in Cuba, then weaken somewhat due to the rugged terrain there. The storm should re-intensify over the Florida Straits in moderate shear conditions but with favorable forcing from the upper-level low. No change has been made to the intensity forecast near Florida, and Eta is likely to be near or at hurricane-strength there. Over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some dry air entrainment could briefly cause some weakening, but the system is forecast to move very slowly over the warm waters. In fact, a large portion of the guidance actually show it re-gaining hurricane strength as it moves farther away from any cooler shelf waters near Florida and sits over the Loop Current. While it seems pre-mature to raise the forecast much due to the large track uncertainty, the forecast is bumped up on days 3-4, but is below the model consensus.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor to isolated moderate river flooding in Central Florida.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight and Sunday in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
  • 3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin Sunday afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta’s center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.
  • 4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch area should follow any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 20.7N  79.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Playa Ancon, Cuba)
 12H  08/1200Z 22.1N  79.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Taguasco, Cuba)
 24H  09/0000Z 23.8N  79.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Williams Island, Bahamas)
 36H  09/1200Z 24.9N  81.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Big Pine Key, FL)
 48H  10/0000Z 25.0N  83.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Everglades City, FL)
 60H  10/1200Z 25.0N  84.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Everglades City, FL)
 72H  11/0000Z 25.5N  84.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Everglades City, FL)
 96H  12/0000Z 26.0N  84.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Naples, FL)
120H  13/0000Z 27.0N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Venice, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EST Sat Nov 07, 2020 

An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Eta had strengthened to 50 kt with a central pressure of 994 mb. Since that time, the storm organization is unchanged in satellite imagery, while the central convection looks a little more ragged in radar data from Grand Cayman Island and Cuba. Eta is currently being affected by 25-35 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, and water vapor imagery shows upper-level dry air approaching the inner core from the west.

The initial motion now 050/14. There is little change to the forecast philosophy through the first 96 h of the forecast. A mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should steer Eta northeastward for the next 12 h or so, which would bring the center near or over the coast of central Cuba. Then from 12-96 h, the trough should cut off into a closed low near western Cuba, with Eta turning northward and eventually westward near the Florida Keys and south Florida as it merges with the low. The track guidance has shifted a little to the west over Cuba and a little to the south near Florida, possibly in response to data from the G-IV jet mission earlier today, and the new track forecast does likewise. The track guidance becomes quite divergent after 96 h, and the 96-120 h motion is now slower than the previous forecast as a result.

The intensity forecast is tricky. Strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough is allowing the cyclone to strengthen. However, at some time in the next 24-48 h the shear and dry air entrainment should prevent any further strengthening. The intensity guidance shows a little intensification during the next 24-36 h with the bulk of the guidance peaking near 60 kt. After that time, the dry air should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is increased a bit from the previous forecast to show a 60-kt intensity at 24 and 36 h. This requires issuing a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys and portions of south Florida.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba, and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for a few more hours in portions of the Cayman Islands, and are expected tonight and Sunday in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
  • 3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected Sunday night, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta’s center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.
  • 4. A life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch area should follow any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 20.4N  80.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Blossom Village, Cayman)
 12H  08/0600Z 21.6N  79.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW La Sierpe, Cuba)
 24H  08/1800Z 23.3N  79.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Remedios, Cuba)
 36H  09/0600Z 24.7N  79.9W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Islamorada, FL)
 48H  09/1800Z 25.2N  81.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Everglades City, FL)
 60H  10/0600Z 25.7N  82.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Marco Island, FL)
 72H  10/1800Z 26.1N  83.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Naples, FL)
 96H  11/1800Z 26.5N  84.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cape Coral, FL)
120H  12/1800Z 27.0N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Venice, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07, 2020

Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that Eta has become a little better organized this morning, with the center re-forming to the northeast near an area of deep convection. Surface observations from Grand Cayman Island show that the system has regained tropical-storm strength, and the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. The initial motion is uncertain dur to the reformation, with the best estimate of 055/15. This general motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Eta is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. From 24-96 h, the trough is forecast to become a cut-off low, and Eta is expected to turn northward, northeastward, and eventually westward as it merges with the low. There remains some spread in the guidance in just where these turns will occur and how close the center will come to south Florida and the Florida Keys. This part of the new track is nudged just a little north of the previous track. After 96 h, Eta should move slowly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the forecast track showing a northward motion as a compromise of the poorly-agreeing guidance.

Although the storm is experiencing moderate to strong southwesterly shear, strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough should allow strengthening through about 48 h, although the cyclone may acquire some subtropical characteristics as it merges with the baroclinic system. After that time, dry air entrainment is likely to cause Eta to slowly weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the old forecast.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for south Florida and the Florida Keys at this time.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
  • 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be needed later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 19.6N  81.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW  West Bay, Grand Cayman)
 12H  08/0000Z 20.8N  80.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Playa Ancon, Cuba)
 24H  08/1200Z 22.5N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Caibarien, Cuba)
 36H  09/0000Z 23.8N  79.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Nicholls Town, Bahamas)
 48H  09/1200Z 25.0N  80.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key Largo, FL)
 60H  10/0000Z 25.8N  81.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Marco Island, FL)
 72H  10/1200Z 26.2N  83.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Sanibel, FL)
 96H  11/1200Z 26.5N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cape Coral, FL)
120H  12/1200Z 28.5N  84.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Spring Hill, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM CST Fri Nov 06, 2020 

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that flew a tail-Doppler radar mission earlier this evening reported that Eta’s circulation remained elongated, and that there had not been any significant increase in winds since this afternoon. There has been some increase in deep convection near and to the east of the estimated center, but there has been little overall change in organization. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

Eta is expected to strengthen over the next 24 to 48 hours while it moves over warm waters and within an area of strong upper-level divergence to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Eta’s structure is likely to take on characteristics of a subtropical cyclone as it merges with the cutoff low late Sunday and Monday. As this occurs, Eta’s wind field is expected to increase in size. By 72 hours and beyond, dry air entrainment is likely to cause some weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one.

Eta is moving toward northeastward at a faster forward speed of around 10 kt. An additional increase in forward speed should occur overnight as Eta moves northeastward around the southeastern portion of a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This feature should continue to steer Eta northeastward during the next 24 hours, but after that time the trough is forecast to cut-off, with Eta turning northward, and then northwestward around and into the mid- to upper-level closed low. The merged system is likely to move northwestward or northward later in the period. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more northward track on Sunday and Monday with some of them showing a track near or over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula in 48 to 60 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly northward during that time and lies between the TVCA multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus aid. Since Eta’s wind field is forecast to expand when it moves north of Cuba, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to cover a large area to the north and northeast of the center regardless of the exact track of the center.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys. Additional watches for the Florida peninsula may be required overnight or on Saturday morning.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern Florida.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
  • 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of these areas and additional watches may be required overnight or on Saturday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 18.0N  85.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Xcalak, Mexico)
 12H  07/1200Z 19.0N  83.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW West Bay, Grand Cayman)
 24H  08/0000Z 20.3N  81.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Rum Point,Cayman Islands)
 36H  08/1200Z 21.9N  79.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Trinidad, Cuba)
 48H  09/0000Z 24.0N  79.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Marathon, FL)
 60H  09/1200Z 25.0N  81.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Marathon, FL)
 72H  10/0000Z 25.2N  82.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Everglades City, FL)
 96H  11/0000Z 26.0N  84.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Naples, FL)
120H  12/0000Z 27.0N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Sarasota, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM CST Fri Nov 06, 2020 

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Eta is elongated east-to-west with multiple vorticity centers present. The central pressure is near 1002 mb, and the maximum flight-level winds were 30-35 kt at 1500 ft. There were a few spot reports of 35-45 kt winds from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, but these were in areas of heavy rain and their reliability is suspect. Based on these data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.

The aircraft data shows that the center is farther south than previously thought, and the initial motion is an uncertain 040/6 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, causing Eta to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the merged system is likely to move slowly westward to northwestward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there remain differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. In addition, the HWRF/HMON/Canadian are faster than the other guidance. The new forecast track overall is a little slower than the previous track, and due to the initial position the first 36 h have been shifted southward.

Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening, although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the cyclone’s life is again similar to the previous forecast and lies near the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with the mid- to upper-level low. The HWRF and HMON models still suggest the possibility that a tight inner wind core may develop, however, the guidance has trended weaker since this morning, and the new intensity forecast is above the bulk of the guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Cuba at this time. Watches may be required for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and southeast Mexico.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
  • 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 17.3N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Belize City, Belize)
 12H  07/0600Z 18.2N  84.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Mahahua, Mexico)
 24H  07/1800Z 19.4N  82.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW West Bay, Grand Cayman)
 36H  08/0600Z 20.8N  80.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Playa Ancon, Cuba)
 48H  08/1800Z 22.5N  80.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Santa Clara, Cuba)
 60H  09/0600Z 24.2N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Marathon, FL)
 72H  09/1800Z 24.9N  81.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Key West, FL)
 96H  10/1800Z 25.0N  84.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Key West, FL)
120H  11/1800Z 26.5N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Cape Coral, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM CST Fri Nov 06, 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Eta is producing organized convection in a large band over its northern and eastern quadrants, with the center located just off the coast of Belize near the western end of the band. These data, along with surface observations, also show that the circulation is elongated. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta this afternoon, and a NOAA flight is scheduled for this evening.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/6 kt. A developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, with Eta expected to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the merged system is likely to move slowly west-northwestward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there are a lot of differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. Overall, the consensus models have shifted a little to the east and north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in those directions.

Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening, although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the cyclone’s life is similar to the previous forecast and lies a bit below the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with the mid- to upper-level low. During this process, some of the guidance suggests the possibility that a tight inner wind core may develop. There is a chance that during this time that Eta could regain hurricane strength, although this would be an intensity above the current guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands at this time, and a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Cuba. Watches may be required for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys later today or tonight.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Rainfall associated with Eta will continue to result in catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and southeast Mexico.
  • 2. This weekend Eta is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Cayman Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions possible in portions of western and central Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
  • 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today or tonight for a portion of this area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 17.8N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE San Pedro, Belize)
 12H  07/0000Z 18.6N  85.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Topical Storrm (ESE Mahahua, Mexico)
 24H  07/1200Z 19.7N  83.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Topical Storrm (ESE Playa Ancon, Cuba)
 36H  08/0000Z 21.0N  81.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Topical Storrm (ENE Playa Ancon, Cuba)
 48H  08/1200Z 22.7N  79.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Topical Storrm (WNW Encrucijada, Cuba)
 60H  09/0000Z 24.1N  80.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Topical Storrm (ESE Key West, FL)
 72H  09/1200Z 25.0N  81.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Topical Storrm (WNW Marathon, FL)
 96H  10/1200Z 25.5N  84.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Topical Storrm (WSW Marco Island, FL)
120H  11/1200Z 26.5N  85.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Topical Storrm (WNW Fort Myers, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM CST Thu Nov 05, 2020

Eta has not become any better organized during the past several hours, and a specific center is hard to locate. It is estimated that the center is near a growing area of deep convection located east of the Belize. While it is possible the system has degenerated into a broad low or trough, there isn’t enough evidence to break continuity, so Eta remains a 30-kt tropical depression on this advisory. Scatterometer data will probably come in overnight to provide a better look at the low-level circulation.

The initial motion is an uncertain 360/7 kt. Eta should move northeastward on Friday around a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, then turn northward on Sunday and west-northwestward early next week as the trough cuts off into a closed low. The details of this sinuous path, however, are pretty fuzzy and small differences in the tropical cyclone position could lead to large errors down the line. The most notable change tonight is that the GFS-based guidance (including HWRF and HMON) have generally shifted northward and faster. The new forecast is moved eastward near Cuba, and then northward near the Florida Keys in response to this guidance and the 18Z ECMWF. It should be stressed this is a fairly uncertain forecast due to the strong trough interaction.

Eta should begin to strengthen on Friday due to the low-level circulation forecast to become better defined in a fairly conducive environment. While vertical wind shear could increase this weekend, it is expected that upper-level divergence and trough dynamics will overwhelm the negative factors and cause continued intensification until the system reaches Cuba. The new forecast is raised from the previous one, but still lies below the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA. There isn’t a lot of agreement on the intensity after Cuba, however, and the forecast hinges on how tropical it will remain after the trough interaction. The new forecast flattens out the intensity near Florida as a compromise between the various solutions, but I don’t have much confidence in the forecast at that range.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
  • 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 16.6N  87.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hopkins, Belize)
 12H  06/1200Z 17.5N  87.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Belize City, Belize)
 24H  07/0000Z 18.8N  85.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Mahahua, Mexico)
 36H  07/1200Z 19.7N  83.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Playa Ancon, Cuba)
 48H  08/0000Z 20.8N  81.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Playa Ancon, Cuba)
 60H  08/1200Z 22.6N  79.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Encrucijada, Cuba)
 72H  09/0000Z 24.2N  80.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Key West, FL)
 96H  10/0000Z 25.0N  83.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Everglades City, FL)
120H  11/0000Z 25.5N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Naples, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05, 2020 

The low-level circulation of Eta has become disorganized to the point that the system more resembles a remnant low than a tropical cyclone. However, the system continues to produce convection in an area just north and northwest of the estimated center position, as well as in a cluster well to the northeast. Based on this, and the expectation that the system will start re-developing during the next several hours as it moves back over water, Eta is maintained as a tropical depression for this advisory. The initial intensity is increased to 30 kt based on scatterometer data, with those winds occuring well to the northeast of the center.

The center appears to be just south of the northwestern coast of Honduras, and the initial motion is an uncertain 330/7. During the next 24 h, Eta should recurve northeastward in southwesterly flow between a ridge over the central Caribbean and a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. This motion should persist through about 72 h. After that, the trough is forecast to become a closed low in the vicinity of western Cuba, with Eta turning to the west-northwest as it interacts or merges with the low. While the models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern, they are in poor agreement on the details of the track. The forecast tracks show possible landfalls in Cuba anywhere between 77W-83W, and after the turn some of the tracks are as far north as southern Florida while other stay over Cuba. In addition, there is a significant speed difference between the faster GFS/HWRF/HMON and the slower Canadian/ECMWF/UKMET. The low-confidence official forecast compromises between these various extremes and is not changed much from the previous forecast.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 h or so as Eta starts to re-organized over water. After that, gradual strengthening is expected until the system reaches Cuba in about 72 h, with the main limiting factor being increasing southwesterly shear during that time. From 72-120 h, there is a possibility that Eta will take on subtropical or hybrid characteristics as it interacts with the developing upper-level low. The intensity forecast will be held at 50 kt during that time due to this interaction. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. However, it lies below the bulk of the intensity guidance for the first 60 h and above the bulk of the guidance from 72-120 h.

The new forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands at this time. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for portions of Cuba later tonight or on Friday.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
  • 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a day or so. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 15.7N  87.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Tela, Honduras)
 12H  06/0600Z 16.4N  87.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Placencia, Belize)
 24H  06/1800Z 18.1N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Xcalak, Mexico)
 36H  07/0600Z 19.1N  84.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Pulticub, Mexico)
 48H  07/1800Z 20.1N  83.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nueva Gerona, Cuba)
 60H  08/0600Z 21.3N  81.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cayo Largo, Cuba)
 72H  08/1800Z 22.4N  80.1W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ranchuelo, Cuba)
 96H  09/1800Z 23.5N  82.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Havana, Cuba)
120H  10/1800Z 24.5N  84.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM CST Thu Nov 05, 2020

Eta remains disorganized this morning, as visible imagery suggests that the circulation has become elongated and that multiple vorticity centers may be present inside the larger cyclonic envelope. The center position for this advisory, which is over northwestern Honduras, is closer to convection in the northwestern semicircle than was the case 6 h ago, so the cyclone is being maintained as a tropical depression at this time.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/8 kt. Eta or its remnants should move generally northwestward today, then turn northward tonight. From 24-72 h, the system should move northeastward in response to a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. From 72-120 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed mid- to upper-level low in the vicinity of western Cuba, with the center of Eta likely to turn west-northwestward on the north side of the low. While the global models are in good agreement with this synoptic evolution, there is a significant spread in the forecast tracks between the fastest and farthest east GFS and the slowest and farthest west UKMET. The new forecast track lies between these extremes in best overall agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models, and it calls for the system to be near western Cuba and the Cayman Islands in 60-72 h, and then be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period.

Little change in strength is expected before the center moves back over the Caribbean, but there is still a chance that Eta could degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today if the convection does not persist. Intensification is expected over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea from 24-72 h, although this may be slowed by southwesterly shear caused by the aforementioned trough. As the trough cuts off near or over Eta between 72-120 h, the global models suggest that the system could strengthen while acquiring at least some subtropical or hybrid characteristics due to upper-level cold air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and in the latter part of the forecast period it lies near the intensity consensus. It should be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled out, there is little support for that in the current guidance.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
  • 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 15.1N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW Torre, Honduras)
 12H  06/0000Z 15.7N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Chivana, Honduras)
 24H  06/1200Z 16.8N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hopkins, Belize)
 36H  07/0000Z 17.8N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE San Pedro, Belize)
 48H  07/1200Z 19.0N  84.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Mahahua, Mexico)
 60H  08/0000Z 20.1N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nueva Gerona, Cuba)
 72H  08/1200Z 21.3N  81.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Trinidad, Cuba)
 96H  09/1200Z 23.0N  80.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cayo de la Cruz)
120H  10/1200Z 24.0N  83.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM CST Wed Nov 04, 2020 

The rugged terrain of Central America is taking a toll on Eta. The low-level circulation is losing definition, and deep convection is well removed from the center. Eta was downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression a few hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at that value for this advisory. The strongest winds are likely occurring offshore over the Gulf of Honduras, as noted in earlier ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data.

Eta, or its remnant low, is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the cyclone across portions of Honduras during that time. In 24 to 36 hours, a turn to the north and then northeast is forecast as Eta feels some influence from a mid- to upper level trough moving over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. As this trough slides southeastward across the Gulf, it should steer Eta northeastward at a faster forward speed toward Cuba, likely approaching that country late Saturday or Sunday. After that time, the models show Eta rotating around the north side of the trough (or cut-off low) in the vicinity of south Florida and the Florida Keys late this weekend and early next week. There is still a lot of spread in the model tracks at the 96- and 120-hour time periods, which is not surprising given the expected complex steering pattern. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models, but confidence in the details of the extended track forecast is low.

Continued weakening is expected while Eta remains inland over the rugged terrain of Central America, and the cyclone will likely degenerate into a remnant low or trough of low pressure on Thursday. Whatever is left of Eta, and the broad gyre that it is embedded within, will move offshore of Belize over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. The rate of intensification over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will likely be gradual because of the mixed environmental conditions. On one hand, Eta will be moving over warm water and in a region of upper-level diffluence, which should support convective growth and strengthening. Conversely, there will also be an increase in wind shear and the cyclone is likely to have a broad structure, which should prevent rapid intensification. The net result will likely be slow but steady strengthening, and Eta is forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it is near south Florida. The models are in fair agreement on Eta’s future intensity, and this forecast is just a little higher than the previous one.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
  • 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 14.2N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH- Depression (ENE Danlí, Honduras)
 12H  05/1200Z 15.0N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WNW Sulaco, Honduras)
 24H  06/0000Z 16.1N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Travesía, Honduras)
 36H  06/1200Z 17.2N  86.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Belize City, Belize)
 48H  07/0000Z 18.2N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Chetumal, Mexico)
 60H  07/1200Z 19.3N  83.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Tulum, Mexico)
 72H  08/0000Z 20.4N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nueva Gerona, Cuba)
 96H  09/0000Z 23.3N  79.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isabela de Sagua, Cuba)
120H  10/0000Z 24.7N  81.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW BigTorch Key, Bahamas)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM CST Wed Nov 04, 2020

Eta continues to weaken as it moves from Nicaragua into Honduras. There is little convection left near the center, and the strongest convection remains in bands well removed from the center. As before, there are no wind observations available near the center of Eta at this time, so the initial intensity is reduced to a uncertain 35 kt.

The initial motion is westward or 275/6. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west- northwestward track during the next 24 h or so. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause Eta or is remnants to turn northward and then northeastward, Then, by 120 h, the cyclone is likely to move northward or northwestward on the eastern side of the trough as it cuts off into a closed low. The track guidance remains in reasonable agreement with this scenario, However, there remains some spread on when and where the various turns will occur, and there has also been an eastward shift in the guidance envelope after 36 h. The new forecast track is shifted to the east of the previous track after 36 h, and at 72 and 96 h it lies a little to the west of the various consensus models.

Eta will continue to weaken while it crosses Honduras, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low before it reaches the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Re-development is expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is more subtropical or hybrid, as suggested by the UKMET, than a classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a gradual intensification that follows the general trend of the model guidance. However, the intensity forecast again lies a little below the intensity consensus.

Although it is weakening, Eta will continue to produce heavy rainfall and flooding over portions of Central America.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
  • 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 13.9N  85.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE 
 12H  05/0600Z 14.2N  86.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Teupasenti, Honduras)
 24H  05/1800Z 15.1N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (WNW Torre, Honduras)
 36H  06/0600Z 16.5N  87.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Placencia, Belize)
 48H  06/1800Z 17.7N  86.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE San Pedro, Belize)
 60H  07/0600Z 18.8N  84.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Mahahual, Mexico)
 72H  07/1800Z 20.5N  82.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nueva Gerona, Cuba)
 96H  08/1800Z 24.0N  80.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Elbow Cays, Bahamas)
120H  09/1800Z 25.5N  82.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Maro Island, Florida)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL  900 AM CST Wed Nov 04, 2020 

Eta is weakening as it moves across northern Nicaragua, Most of the inner core convection has weakened, and the strongest convection is now in bands well removed from the center. There are no wind observations available near the center of Eta at this time, so the initial intensity is reduced to a uncertain 45 kt.

The initial motion is westward or 275/6. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west-northwestward track during the next 36 h or so. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause Eta or is remnants to turn northward and then northeastward, Then, by 120 h, the cyclone is likely to move northward on the eastern side of the trough. While the track guidance is in reasonable agreement with this scenario, there is some spread on when and where the various turns will occur, and thus there is a fair amount of uncertainty about what parts of Cuba and Florida the center may pass near or over. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models.

Eta will continue to weaken while it crosses Nicaragua and Honduras, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low before it reaches the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Re-development is expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is more subtropical or hybrid, as indicated by the GFS/HWRF, than a classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a gradual intensification in the expectation that the GFS scenario is more likely to verify, However, the intensity forecast lies a little below the intensity consensus. Although it is weakening, Eta will continue to produce heavy rainfall and flooding over portions of Central America.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Through Sunday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
  • 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 13.9N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ayapal, Nicaragua)
 12H  05/0000Z 14.1N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE Danlí, Honduras)
 24H  05/1200Z 14.9N  87.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW Las Lajas, Honduras)
 36H  06/0000Z 16.0N  88.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Punta Gorda, Belize)
 48H  06/1200Z 17.0N  88.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE Dangriga, Belize)
 60H  07/0000Z 18.0N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Pedro, Belize)
 72H  07/1200Z 19.6N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Tulum, Mexico)
 96H  08/1200Z 23.0N  81.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Matanzas, Cuba)
120H  09/1200Z 25.0N  82.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Key West, Florida)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03, 2020 

Satellite imagery and surface observation data indicate that Hurricane Eta has moved farther inland over northeastern Nicaragua this evening. Eta has maintained a well-defined CDO feature in infrared satellite data, although passive microwave imagery is no longer depicting an eye feature. A sustained wind of 93 kt (107 mph) with a gust to 117 kt (135 mph) was reported at the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport around 03/2139 UTC while the eye of Eta was just inland. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on a standard decay rate for inland tropical cyclones.

The initial motion estimate is 270/05 kt. The track forecast reasoning is fairly straightforward for the next 72 h. A narrow ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone will cause Eta to gradually turn toward the west-northwest over the next 12 h, and maintain that motion through 48 h. In the 48-72 h period, Eta or its remnants are expected to turn northward and then northeastward, and emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea offshore the Yucatan Peninsula by 72 h. Thereafter, the forecast becomes more complex due to expected mid-latitude interaction with an upper-level trough/low currently over the southwestern U.S. that will be digging southeastward and amplifying over the Gulf of Mexico and as far south as the Yucatan by 96 h. The trough is expected to lift out Eta or its remnants northeastward across Cuba, then slow down and turn northward toward the southern Florida peninsula by 120 h when the cyclone will be interacting with an upper-level low over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Due to this complex mid-latitude low/trough interaction, the track forecast at days 4 and 5 contains some uncertainty. The new NHC track forecast is just a little to the left of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, but not as far west as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and is very similar to the previous advisory track at 96 and 120 hours.

Similar to the track forecast, the intensity forecast is also straightforward through 72 h, which calls for Eta to rapidly weaken for the next 48 h so using a standard decay rate for inland tropical cyclones. By 72 h and beyond, the intensity forecast becomes a little more complicated due to the aforementioned mid-latitude trough interaction. The global models are still in fairly good agreement with the development of an anticyclonically curved upper-level jetstream across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Cuba, and the Bahamas by 96 h.

There are some subtropical jet dynamics already occurring across the northwestern Caribbean, which has helped to generate widespread convection across the region today. As the jetstream amplifies ahead of the vigorous upper-level trough, significant upper-level divergence is expected to develop, which will cause surface pressures to fall across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Those strong pressure falls will likely aid in the redevelopment of Eta or generate a new tropical cyclone. Regardless of the exact formation, the global and regional models are all in good agreement on a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing and moving across Cuba and toward Florida on days 4 and 5. The new official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous intensity forecast through 72 hours, and then is slightly higher thereafter, but not as high as some of the intensity guidance like the HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Significant wind damage is expected along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and also inland overnight.
  • 2. A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua overnight. Water levels could reach as high as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
  • 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
  • 4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 13.8N  84.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Lapan, Nicaragua)
 12H  04/1200Z 13.9N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Bonanza, NI)
 24H  05/0000Z 14.4N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE El Rodeo, Honduras)
 36H  05/1200Z 15.3N  88.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Villanueva, Honduras)
 48H  06/0000Z 16.0N  89.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE Dolores, Belize)
 60H  06/1200Z 16.9N  88.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Silk Grass, Belize)
 72H  07/0000Z 17.9N  86.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Xcalak, Mexico)
 96H  08/0000Z 21.1N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nueva Gerona, Cuba)
120H  09/0000Z 24.3N  80.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Key West, Florida)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EST Tue Nov 03, 2020 

After meandering just offshore of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua this morning, the eye of Eta began moving westward and is currently making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua about 15 n mi south of Puerto Cabezas. Visible satellite imagery has shown that the eye of Eta became larger as the hurricane completed an eyewall replacement. A blend of the earlier aircraft data and recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Eta remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and is likely producing a very high storm surge and catastrophic damage. In addition, the slow-moving system is likely to produce torrential rains and inland flooding that will continue to be an extremely serious threat over the next couple of days.

Once the eyewall is fully onshore, rapid weakening should begin, and Eta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Wednesday, and become a tropical depression Wednesday night. Although it appears unlikely that the surface circulation will remain intact while Eta moves over Central America, most of the global model guidance indicates that the low-level vorticity center will emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within 60-72 hours. At that time, the system is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and re-development later in the period appears likely with some strengthening by days 4 and 5. Due the interaction with the upper-level trough, the system is likely to have a more hybrid or subtropical structure late in the period.

Eta appears to be moving westward at about 4 kt. A ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer the system westward to west- northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next couple of days. By late in the week, Eta or its remnants should turn northward, and then northeastward around the southeastern portion of the aforementioned trough. Although the 12z GFS and ECMWF models are in general agreement on the overall forecast scenario, there are large differences in how fast Eta accelerates northeastward. The NHC track forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus model which lies between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions. There is still significant spread among the various global models and the ensembles, which results in a higher than normal level of uncertainty regarding the details of the track and intensity forecast later in the period.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected during the next few hours as Eta’s eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua.
  • 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center has crossed the coast. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
  • 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
  • 4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 13.8N  83.5W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (WSW Wawa, Nicaragua)
 12H  04/0600Z 13.8N  84.2W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Wasa King, NI)
 24H  04/1800Z 14.1N  85.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Catacamas, Honduras)
 36H  05/0600Z 14.7N  87.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE El Porvenir, Honduras)
 48H  05/1800Z 15.4N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Correderos, Honduras)
 60H  06/0600Z 16.3N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Monkey River Town, Belize)
 72H  06/1800Z 17.0N  87.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE Dangriga, Belize)
 96H  07/1800Z 20.0N  83.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Nueva Gerona, Cuba)
120H  08/1800Z 24.0N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Elbow Caye, Bahamas)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 03, 2020

Eta appears to have peaked in intensity overnight as an eyewall replacement cycle occurred early this morning. Radar data from San Andres revealed concentric eyewalls and the last images received from that radar early this morning suggests that the inner-eye wall had weakened. Around that time, the eye became cloud filled and less distinct in infrared satellite imagery.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that provided a couple of center fixes this morning reported that the minimum pressure has risen about 15 mb since last evening. The plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 127 kt, and a few SFMR winds slightly higher, but those winds were flagged as suspect. A dropwindsonde in the southeastern eyewall measured a surface wind of 138 kt, but the mean-layer average winds from the sonde supports a much lower intensity, and the instantaneous surface wind from that instrument is likely more representative of a wind gust. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. Once the center of the hurricane moves onshore later today, rapid weakening is expected. It is still not certain if the surface circulation will survive its trek over Central America during the next several days, but the official forecast continues to show the remnants of Eta emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week.

Eta has been meandering just offshore of the coast of Nicaragua this morning, but the longer term motion is 255/4 kt. The hurricane should turn westward very soon with the center crossing the coast today. A ridge to the north of Eta should steer the cyclone on a faster westward to west-northwestward heading over northern Nicaragua and Honduras over the next couple of days. After 72 hours, a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta or its remnants to turn northward and then northeastward. Given that the system is expected to remain over land for at least a couple of days, there continues to be significant uncertainty in the long range portion of the track and intensity forecast.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta’s eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. Tropical-storm- force or greater winds are already occuring within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.
  • 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02, 2020

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found that Eta has explosively deepened into a strong category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 kt and a minimum central pressure of 927 mb. Eta has maintained a small 10-nmi-wide eye that is evident in satellite imagery and on the San Andreas, Colombia, weather radar. The radar data also suggest that concentric eyewalls may be forming, which would be an indication of the onset of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) and a capping of Eta’s intensity and also an end to the rapid intensification cycle of the past 36 hours. The initial intensity of 130 kt kt is based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 137 kt and SFMR surface winds of 130 kt. Some additional strengthening is expected, and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before landfall occurs. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

Eta has slowed and is now moving southwestward or 245/06 kt. There is no significant change to previous track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge over the south-central United States should steer Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua with the hurricane making landfall early Tuesday. After landfall, Eta should turn westward and then west-northwestward, and move across Central America through Thursday. Eta’s low-level circulation may not survive its passage over the mountainous terrain of Central America, but most of the global models continue to depict a cyclone or its remnants moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by late-week and into the weekend. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast continues to show the system emerging over the northwestern Caribbean late in the period, although this portion of the track forecast remains uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta’s eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.
  • 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.
  • 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 14.1N  82.7W  130 KT 150 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Krukira, Nicaragua)
 12H  03/1200Z 13.9N  83.3W  140 KT 160 MPH - Category 5 (ESE Wawa, NI)
 24H  04/0000Z 13.9N  84.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WNW Lapan, NI)
 36H  04/1200Z 13.9N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ayapal, NI)
 48H  05/0000Z 14.3N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE Danlí, Honduras)
 60H  05/1200Z 14.8N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WNW Meambar, Honduras)
 72H  06/0000Z 15.4N  88.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Morales, Guatemala)
 96H  07/0000Z 16.8N  87.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Hopkins, Belize)
120H  08/0000Z 17.9N  85.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE San Pedro, Belize)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02, 2020 

Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to undergo rapid strengthening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery and recent visible satellite data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight- level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt. The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass through the center. With the continued improvement in organization since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent. Low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4 hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

The hurricane is moving westward or 265 degrees at 8 kt, a little slower than before. A mid-level ridge building over the south-central United States is expected to cause Eta to turn west-southwestward later today, and this motion should bring the center of the hurricane near the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area Tuesday morning. Eta is forecast to then turn westward, moving farther inland over Central America. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48 hours or so, but the models generally show a slower forward motion than before, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although Eta’s low-level center may not survive after being inland over Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta’s remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h. However, the uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite high.

Since Eta likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Eta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane very soon, and additional strengthening is likely before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore, and preparations should be rushed to completion within the Hurricane Warning area.
  • 2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
  1. 3. A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 14.8N  81.5W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Bismuna Tara, Nicaragua)
 12H  03/0000Z 14.4N  82.4W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Nina Yari, NI)
 24H  03/1200Z 14.0N  83.1W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 36H  04/0000Z 13.9N  83.6W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Iakri, NI)
 48H  04/1200Z 13.9N  84.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Rosita, NI)
 60H  05/0000Z 14.2N  85.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Las Mangas, Honduras)
 72H  05/1200Z 14.6N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE  San Ignacio, Honduras)
 96H  06/1200Z 15.8N  87.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Tela, Honduras)
120H  07/1200Z 17.5N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Belize City, Belize)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 01, 2020

Eta has continued to become better organized this evening, including the development of an impressive Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops colder than -90C near the center, improved banding features in the northwestern semicircle, and the formation of a pinhole mid-level eye noted in 01/2322Z 91GHz SSMI/S microwave imagery. Water vapor imagery also indicates that the upper-level outflow pattern has continued to expand, with dual outflow channels having formed to the northeast and the southwest. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. However, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 60 kt based on the pinhole eye feature…and this intensity estimate is probably conservative. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta in a few hours.

Eta has slowed down but is still moving westward, or 270/11 kt. An expansive subtropical ridge that extends from the southwestern Atlantic across the Bahamas, Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to keep Eta moving in a general westward direction through Monday morning. By Monday afternoon and evening, the portion of the ridge over the Gulf is forecast to build southward and eastward in the wake of an exiting mid-latitude trough currently moving across the eastern and southeastern United States. The increased ridging will act to force Eta west-southwestward and eventually southwestward over the next 36 hours, resulting in landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. After moving inland, steering currents are forecast to weaken significantly on days 3-5 as another trough digs southeastward out of the U.S. Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico, eroding the Gulf ridge and causing Eta to drift slowly westward across Central America. Compared to the preponderance of the the model guidance, the HWRF solution of Eta remaining just offshore over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is considered to be an outlier. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple-consensus models TVCA and GFEX, which are a little to the right of the corrected-consensus model, HCCA. Based on the new NHC track forecast, no changes are required to the existing tropical cyclone warnings and watches in effect.

Eta has rapidly intensified 20 kt during the past 12 h. Given the much improved inner-core structure as noted in the SSMI/S imagery, combined with sea-surface temperatures in excess of 29 deg C, mid-level humidity values greater than 80 percent, and the already impressive outflow pattern, Eta should continue to rapidly strengthen until landfall occurs. The main question is: how much strengthening will take place? Some of the more reliable intensity guidance brings the cyclone up to 105-110 kt in 36 hours, with the HWRF model bringing Eta to near category-4 strength. The new NHC intensity forecast shows Eta as a major hurricane in 36 hours when it is expected to be located just inland over northeastern Nicaragua, but a stronger intensity is highly probable just before landfall occurs. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter while the cyclone moves over the rugged, mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras, with Eta possibly devolving into a large, quasi-stationary Central American Gyre (CAG).

Key Messages:

  • 1. Eta is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early Monday morning. Additional strengthening is forecast thereafter, and Eta is expected to be a major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras.
  • 2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
  • 3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 14.9N  80.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Iralaya, Honduras)
 12H  02/1200Z 14.8N  81.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Nina Yari, Nicaragua)
 24H  03/0000Z 14.5N  82.6W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Nina Yari, NI)
 36H  03/1200Z 14.1N  83.4W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WNW Puerto Cabezas, NI)
 48H  04/0000Z 14.0N  84.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Rosita, NI)
 60H  04/1200Z 14.0N  85.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ayapal, NI)
 72H  05/0000Z 14.2N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE Danli, Honduras)
 96H  06/0000Z 14.9N  88.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW San Nicolás, Honduras)
120H  07/0000Z 15.7N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW Cuyamel, Honduras)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EST Sun Nov 01, 2020 

Eta has continued to quickly become better organized today with an increase in banding and the development of a central dense overcast feature. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has provided a couple of center fixes this afternoon has found a strengthening tropical storm. The aircraft has reported a minimum pressure of 992 mb and a 30 n-mi-wide eye that is open to the southwest. A blend of the SFMR and flight-level wind data support an initial wind speed of 55 kt for this advisory.

Given the much improved inner-core structure as reported by the reconnaissance aircraft and the favorable environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear and high ocean heat content, additional strengthening is likely. The intensity guidance is much higher this cycle, and the various rapid intensification models show a much more significant chance of rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The DTOPS model indicates a 71 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours, while the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 53 percent chance of a 45-kt increase over the next 36 hours. Based on the higher initial intensity and the more bullish guidance, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased and essentially calls for rapid strengthening until Eta reaches the coast of Central America. Once inland, Eta should quickly weaken over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Eta is still moving steadily westward or 270 degrees at about 14 kt. A westward motion at a somewhat slower forward speed is expected tonight. On Monday, Eta is forecast to turn southwestward at a slower forward speed when a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. Eta is forecast to move inland over northeastern Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area Monday night or early Tuesday. The dynamical models are in relatively good agreement through about 72 hours, expect for the HWRF which shows a more northern track and keeps Eta offshore for much of the period. This solution is considered an outlier at this time, and the NHC track is in good agreement with the various global models and the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Some model solutions still suggest Eta or its remnants will re-emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at or beyond day 5. The new NHC 5-day position is still inland near the Gulf of Honduras close to the various consensus aids, but large uncertainty exists in the forecast at that time range due to the large spread in the track guidance.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Eta is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, and additional strengthening is forecast before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras.
  • 2. Through Friday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
  • 3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 14.9N  78.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hayes, Jamaica)
 12H  02/0600Z 15.0N  80.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Iralaya, Honduras)
 24H  02/1800Z 14.7N  82.1W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Nina Yari, Nicaragua)
 36H  03/0600Z 14.2N  83.1W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Awastara, NI)
 48H  03/1800Z 14.0N  83.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Klingna, NI)
 60H  04/0600Z 14.0N  84.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Pionner, NI)
 72H  04/1800Z 14.1N  85.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Trojes, Honduras)
 96H  05/1800Z 14.7N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW Taulabé, Honduras)
120H  06/1800Z 15.5N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ENE Morales, Guatemala)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 01, 2020 

Eta appears to be gradually becoming better organized this morning. A small area of persistent, deep convection near and over the center has supported the development of a small central dense overcast. Meanwhile, a larger convective band with limited curvature is noted well northeast and east of the storm center. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 35 kt. It should be noted that the center was relocated a bit farther south this morning based on overnight microwave imagery. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta this afternoon.

Weak vertical wind shear and high oceanic heat content should support steady strengthening over the next couple of days. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index still indicates the potential for rapid strengthening, and the official NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the guidance envelope. The current forecast shows Eta becoming a hurricane by 36 h, and continued strengthening is forecast through landfall. Once inland, Eta should quickly weaken over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

The tropical storm is moving westward at around 13 kt. A westward or west-southwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next several days, as Eta is steered by a mid-level ridge positioned to its north and northwest. The track guidance remains fairly tightly clustered through about 72 h, and the only change with this forecast is a slight southward correction based on the relocated center position. The official NHC forecast now brings Eta inland over Central America by 60 h. There is increased uncertainty in the track forecast post-landfall, with a range of plausible outcomes. While much of the guidance suggests Eta will spin down and weaken over Central America or possibly cross into the eastern Pacific, some model solutions indicate the potential for Eta or its remnants to re-emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at or beyond day 5. For now, the official NHC forecast remains close to the previous one and the corrected consensus aid HCCA, which keeps the cyclone inland over Central America through day 5.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane before it reaches the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued.
  • 2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 14.8N  77.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hayes, Jamaica)
 12H  02/0000Z 14.9N  78.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hayes, Jamaica)
 24H  02/1200Z 14.9N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Iralaya, Honduras)
 36H  03/0000Z 14.5N  81.9W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Nina Yari, Nicaragua)
 48H  03/1200Z 14.2N  82.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Awastara, NI)
 60H  04/0000Z 13.9N  83.6W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Klingna, NI)
 72H  04/1200Z 13.8N  84.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Wasa King, NI)
 96H  05/1200Z 14.1N  86.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW Danli, Honduras)
120H  06/1200Z 14.6N  88.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW San Isidro, Honduras)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31, 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the cyclone continues to become better organized, with a convective band wrapping about halfway around the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 35 kt, and the CIMSS satellite consensus is near 40 kt. Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Eta, the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season. This ties the record for storms set in the 2005 season and is the first time the name Eta has been used in the Atlantic basin.

The initial motion is 275/13. A low- to mid-level ridge axis that extends from the subtropical Atlantic southwestward to Cuba and the Bahamas is currently the main steering influence, and the model guidance is in good agreement that this feature should cause the storm to move westward for the next 24-36 h. Between 36-72 h, a building low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn west-southwestward as it approaches the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Beyond that time, there remains significant spread in the models, with the GFS showing a slow motion toward the northwest near the coast of Honduras while the ECMWF/UKMET show a continued west-southwestward motion into the Pacific. Given the spread, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone’s center slowly across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. The new forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus, and the 72-120 h part remains low confidence.

Eta is over warm water and is in environment of light vertical wind shear. These conditions are expected to continue until the system nears the coast of Central America on 60-72 h. Thus, steady to possibly rapid strengthening is expected, with the storm forecast to reach hurricane strength between 36-48 h. The intensity guidance has trended stronger since the last advisory, and this part of the new intensity forecast is now a little below the intensity consensus. After 72 h, the intensity forecast is tied to whether or not the cyclone’s center moves inland over Central America, and the current forecast is based on the forecast track that takes the center well inland.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America late Monday and Monday night, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas on Sunday.
  • 2. Through Thursday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, which could lead to landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flooding is also possible near the southern coast of Hispaniola, depending upon the track of the storm.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 15.0N  74.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Torbeck, Haiti)
 12H  01/1200Z 15.1N  76.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hayes, Jamaica)
 24H  02/0000Z 15.3N  78.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Negril, Jamaica))
 36H  02/1200Z 15.2N  80.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Iralaya, Honduras)
 48H  03/0000Z 14.7N  82.1W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Bismuna Tara, Nicaragua)
 60H  03/1200Z 14.2N  82.8W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Awastara, NI)
 72H  04/0000Z 13.7N  83.7W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Lapan, NI)
 96H  05/0000Z 14.0N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Jalapa, NI)
120H  06/0000Z 14.5N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ENE La Ermita, Honduras)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 31, 2020

Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become better organized in association with a tropical wave which has been moving westward across the central Caribbean Sea. It was unclear this morning if the system had developed a closed low-level circulation, since scatterometers have avoided the system over the past 24 hours, but recent visible and microwave satellite images suggest that the system almost certainly now has a well-defined center. For that reason, the system is being designated as a tropical depression with 30-kt winds, based on Dvorak classifications of T2.0 from both TAFB and SAB.

A low- to mid-level ridge axis that extends from the subtropical Atlantic southwestward to Cuba and the Bahamas is currently steering the depression toward the west (270 degrees) at an estimated speed of 13 kt. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the depression’s future track for the first 48 hours or so. The cyclone is expected to continue westward for the first 36 hours and then slow down and turn west-southwestward by 48 hours as it approaches the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, in response to a building ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After that time, however, there is significant divergence in the models. For example, the ECWMF and its ensemble members continue on a faster westward motion across Central America, while the GFS and its ensemble members stall the system over the western Caribbean Sea through day 5. Given this discrepancy, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone’s center slowly across northern Nicaragua, more or less in line with the multi-model consensus aids. This forecast is of generally low confidence, however, and significant changes could be required in later advisory packages depending on model trends.

The waters over the Caribbean Sea remain very warm–around 29 degrees Celsius–and the environment is characterized by low vertical shear of 10 kt or less. Along with plenty of ambient moisture, these parameters suggest the system is primed for steady, if not significant, strengthening during the next few days. The NHC official forecast generally lies between the SHIPS guidance and the HCCA corrected-consensus aid, which lie near the upper bound of the intensity guidance, and it brings the system to hurricane strength in 48 hours. The intensity forecast hinges greatly on whether or not the cyclone’s center moves inland over Central America, but regardless, the system is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches the Honduras and Nicaragua coasts in a few days.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America late Monday and Monday night, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Hurricane Watches could be needed for portions of those areas later tonight.
  • 2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from the system will likely lead to flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, which could result in landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flooding is also possible near the southern coast of Hispaniola.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 15.0N  73.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Les Cayes, Haiti)
 12H  01/0600Z 15.1N  75.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Kingston, Jamaica)
 24H  01/1800Z 15.4N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Negril, Jamaica)
 36H  02/0600Z 15.5N  80.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Iralaya, Honduras)
 48H  02/1800Z 15.1N  82.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Iralaya, Honduras)
 60H  03/0600Z 14.3N  83.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Awastara, Nicaragua)
 72H  03/1800Z 13.8N  83.7W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Lapan, NI)
 96H  04/1800Z 13.5N  85.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE San José de Bocay, NI)
120H  05/1800Z 14.0N  86.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW Yuscarán, Honduras)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 31, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A vigorous tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a concentrated area of thunderstorms. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and conditions are conducive for further development. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves generally westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Interests in Honduras and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC Islands and Jamaica through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 30, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is slowly becoming better organized, and conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC islands and Jamaica through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 30, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week as the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC islands and Jamaica through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 30, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Shower activity continues to become better organized in association with a tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week as the system moves into the central and western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 30, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Shower activity associated with a large area of disturbed weather over the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea has become a little more concentrated this evening. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 29, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta, located over the western Atlantic Ocean off of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states.

  • 1. A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 29, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Zeta, located over Virginia.

  • 1. A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 29, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Zeta, located over western North Carolina.

  • 1. A large area of disturbed weather moving from the tropical Atlantic across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a pair of tropical waves. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Zeta, located over central Alabama.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system meanders over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 28, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Zeta, located inland over southeastern Louisiana.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend or early next week while it meanders over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 28, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Zeta, located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend or early next week while it is nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

If this system is named, it will become Tropical Storm Eta.

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Recent Tropical Cruise Weather:

Video: Several boats beached in Gulfport after Tropical Storm Eta sweeps through Tampa Bay