Tropical Storm Epsilon

Post Tropical Storm Epsilon Track 0300 Hours October 26 2020
Post Tropical Storm Epsilon Track 0300 Hours October 26 2020

Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm EpsilonNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26, 2020 (see Sunday video below)

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Epsilon no longer has the structure of a tropical cyclone. The low-level circulation is stretched out along a north-south axis, with an area of lighter winds noted near and north of the ill-defined center. Furthermore, infrared cloud tops have warmed over the past several hours as convection wanes near the center. Therefore, Epsilon has been declared a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC advisory for the system.

A partial 22Z ASCAT-A overpass showed at least 55-kt winds in the southern semicircle of the cyclone, which supports keeping the initial intensity at 60 kt. Post-tropical Epsilon is firmly embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone will continue racing northeastward at around 35-40 kt for the next day or so. The cyclone will remain a very powerful and dangerous storm until it is absorbed by another large extratropical low pressure system over the northeastern Atlantic. The global models remain in very good agreement with this scenario, and no notable changes were made to the official NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 48.6N  38.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE St Johns, NF Canada)
 12H  26/1200Z 52.1N  30.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Galway, Ireland)
 24H  27/0000Z 57.0N  24.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Castle Bay, Scotland)
 36H  27/1200Z...ABSORBED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25, 2020

Epsilon is nearly extratropical, with late morning scatterometer data showing that the circulation has become stretched out as the cyclone interacts with a high-latitude low-pressure system and an associated mid- upper-level trough to its north. The main reason that the cyclone is still classifiable as a tropical cyclone is persistent deep convection very near the center of circulation. Based on the scatterometer data showing an area of peak winds of 56 kt, the initial intensity is being lowered to 60 kt.

What remains of the trapped tropical airmass near the center of the cyclone supporting the deep convection should mix out over the next few hours, as Epsilon moves over cold waters of about 15 degrees C and continues to wrap cooler and stable air into its circulation. The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful until it is absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about 24-36 h.

Epsilon is racing east-northeastward at around 40 kt, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. A fast east-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected to continue until the system gets absorbed by the aforementioned high-latitude low pressure system. The latest NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one and remains in the middle of the tightly clustered consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 46.2N  44.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 12H  26/0600Z 49.4N  35.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Dingle, Ireland)
 24H  26/1800Z 54.4N  26.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Glosh, Ireland)
 36H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25, 2020

Epsilon continues its extratropical transition, as the cloud tops near the center of circulation are warming while the cloud pattern continues to expand over the northern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt for this advisory based on early morning ASCAT data. Partial data from a more recent scatterometer pass also suggested this intensity.

The cyclone is now moving over waters of only 17 degrees C and the waters ahead of the system are even cooler than that. Epsilon is also interacting with a baroclinic zone as evidenced by a large area of cool and stable air stratocumulus wrapping around the southwestern portion of the circulation. These factors should cause what remains of the inner-core convection to weaken over the next several hours, and the system should complete its extratropical transition by tonight. The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful for the next day or so until it is absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about 36-48 h.

Epsilon is moving quickly east-northeastward at around 30 kt. The cyclone is expected to accelerate even more today, with a fast east-northeastward or northeastward motion expected until the system is absorbed by the other low. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 44.3N  49.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Categoru 1 (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 12H  26/0000Z 47.0N  41.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 24H  26/1200Z 51.5N  31.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Dingle, Ireland)
 36H  27/0000Z 56.4N  23.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Castle Bay, Scotland)
 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24, 2020

Epsilon has become a little less organized during the past couple of hours. The hurricane is still producing inner-core convection, but cloud tops have gradually warmed, and the overall cloud pattern has become asymmetric once again. ASCAT-A data from just after 00Z showed maximum winds of 55-60 kt southeast of Epsilon’s center. The intensity of the hurricane is therefore set at 65 kt, assuming a little undersampling from the ASCAT instrument. The wind radii analysis was also updated based on the ASCAT data.

The hurricane is currently located over relatively warm waters associated with the Gulf Stream. Epsilon is forecast to remain over the Gulf Stream for at least another 12 hours, and should maintain its tropical structure during that time. The cyclone is forecast to move over much cooler water by Sunday afternoon and this should cause it to quickly become post-tropical. Gradual weakening is expected through this period, but the global models indicate that Epsilon will continue to produce a very large area of gale-force winds and maximum winds near hurricane strength even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then expected to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week.

The hurricane is accelerating northeastward and should continue to gain forward speed in that general direction for the next day or so. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which is based on a blend of TVCA and HCCA. All of the typically reliable track models show the same evolution, so confidence in the track forecast remains high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 41.3N  56.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
 12H  25/1200Z 43.6N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 24H  26/0000Z 47.3N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 36H  26/1200Z 51.6N  30.7W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Dingle, Ireland)
 48H  27/0000Z 56.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Castle Bay, Scotland)
 60H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24, 2020

Epsilon continues to exhibit an inner core of deep convection. In fact, only in the past couple of hours has the eye become difficult to locate in satellite images. A larger comma-shaped cloud shield surrounds the circulation, and extends several hundred miles from the center. Epsilon passed over a buoy array this morning where pressures as low as 957.6 mb were recorded. In addition, a pair of ASCAT overpasses late this morning showed a large area of winds of 60-65 kt in the southern semicircle. This data supported an intensity of 70 kt earlier, and the cyclone’s appearance has not changed much since then. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 70 kt.

The hurricane will likely hold its own for the next 6-12 h as it traverses over waters of about 24 C, while in a fairly favorable atmospheric environment downstream of a mid- to upper-level trough. After 12 h, Epsilon should begin to move over waters of 20 degrees C or less. The combination of the much cooler water temperatures and trough interaction should cause the cyclone to begin an extratropical transition that is forecast to complete by late Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast was nudged a little higher in the 24-48 h time frames due to a slight increase in the guidance, and the latest forecast is very near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Regardless of exactly when Epsilon becomes extratropical, it is still expected to remain a very large and powerful cyclone until it merges with a larger low to its north in a few days.

Epsilon is accelerating and is now moving northeastward at 19 kt. The cyclone should continue accelerating toward the northeast through Sunday in the mid-latitude westerlies, and could reach a forward motion of about 40 kt toward the northeast or east-northeast by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through early next week. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered track guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 39.4N  58.2W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE New York City, NY)
 12H  25/0600Z 41.5N  54.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
 24H  25/1800Z 44.9N  46.7W   65 KT  75 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 36H  26/0600Z 48.9N  35.9W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE St Johns, NF Canada)
 48H  26/1800Z 53.5N  25.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE Galway, Ireland)
 60H  27/0600Z 58.5N  19.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Garenin, Scotland)
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24, 2020 

The appearance of Epsilon has changed little since early this morning, with satellite images revealing an eye feature embedded in a small area of deep convection, while a much larger comma-shaped pattern extends several hundred miles to the north of the center. A drifting buoy array that was placed ahead of the hurricane has provided useful information on the intensity of Epsilon. At 1100 UTC, a buoy located very near the center of the cyclone reported a pressure of 957.6 mb. This pressure was much lower than the previous estimated pressure of 972 mb, which was made without the availability of the buoy data. Therefore, it is likely that Epsilon was a stronger hurricane last night. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 70 kt, and this value could still be conservative based on typical high-latitude pressure-wind relationships.

Epsilon has made its anticipated turn to the northeast and is now moving at 050/11 kt. The cyclone should begin accelerating toward the northeast later today in the mid-latitude westerlies, reaching a forward motion of about 40 kt to the northeast or east-northeast by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through early next week. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered track guidance.

The cyclone is forecast to move over waters of about 24-26 degrees C for the next 12 h or so, while encountering cooler temperatures aloft. This should allow Epsilon to maintain its current intensity today. After 12 h, the water temperatures below the cyclone are expected to decrease below 20 degrees C, while the system interacts with an mid- to upper-level trough. These factors should cause the inner-core convection to dissipate while the system transitions to a large and powerful extratropical cyclone sometime on Sunday. This cyclone is then expected to merge with a larger extratropical low over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 37.9N  60.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE  St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  25/0000Z 39.7N  57.6W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE New York City, NY)
 24H  25/1200Z 42.8N  51.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
 36H  26/0000Z 46.7N  41.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 48H  26/1200Z 50.9N  30.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Dingle, Ireland)
 60H  27/0000Z 55.6N  21.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Calgary, Scotland)
 72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23, 2020 

Convection in Epsilon’s southeastern quadrant has faded during the past several hours, including the outer eyewall that was previously nearly closed. The hurricane’s cloud shield has consequently taken on a very asymmetric shape. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies have decreased since this afternoon, so the intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt. It is worth noting that regardless of the peak winds, recent ASCAT data indicate that the wind field of the hurricane has expanded.

Epsilon is now moving over a relatively warm eddy in the Gulf Stream and this may prevent the hurricane’s structure from substantially decaying further for another 12 to 24 hours. In fact, some models still indicate that Epsilon could briefly regain some strength tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the hurricane should begin moving over cooler waters, and extratropical (ET) transition will likely begin in earnest. The cyclone will still likely be at or near hurricane strength when the ET process is completed in around 48 h. Perhaps more importantly, Epsilon will continue to produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then forecast to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week, and the resulting low pressure system could produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic for several more days thereafter.

Almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction over the course of the next couple of days ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The models are in excellent agreement for a recurving cyclone. While there is always some uncertainty in the forward speed of such cases, confidence in the NHC forecast is relatively high. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are all near the various multi-model consensus aids (TVCN, IVCN, and RVCN).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 36.5N  62.1W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  24/1200Z 38.1N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  25/0000Z 40.4N  57.1W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE New York City, NY)
 36H  25/1200Z 43.6N  50.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
 48H  26/0000Z 47.4N  40.9W   65 KT  75 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 60H  26/1200Z 51.7N  29.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Dingle, Ireland)
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23, 2020

The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6 hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory, close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by recent scatterometer data.

Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same, where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track forecast.

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt wind field should continue to expand to the south while it undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 35.5N  61.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  24/0600Z 37.0N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  24/1800Z 38.9N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE New York City, NY)
 36H  25/0600Z 41.9N  53.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW St Johns, NF Canada)
 48H  25/1800Z 45.6N  45.6W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 60H  26/0600Z 50.0N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Galway, Ireland)
 72H  26/1800Z 54.0N  24.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Post Tropical (WNW Galway, Ireland)
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23, 2020

Epsilon’s structure has not changed appreciably in the last 12 hours, with a small eye intermittently appearing in geostationary satellite and polar-orbiting microwave imagery with additional well-defined curved outer bands. The initial intensity is kept at 75 kt based on SAB and TAFB satellite estimates and the satellite trends.

The cyclone continues to move to the north but at a slightly faster speed (360/09 kt). This northward track is expected for the next day or so as the hurricane is primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its east. Thereafter, Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the northeast and accelerate due to strong mid-latitude westerlies ahead of an approaching longwave trough. By 60 h, Epsilon will be moving rapidly over cooler waters and is expected to be completing extratropical transition. The latest NHC official track is very similar to the previous one and is near the corrected-consensus models.

Epsilon remains in a low vertical wind shear environment and will actually be moving over slightly warmer waters over the next day as it passes across a warm Gulf Stream eddy. It is unclear, however, that the current storm structure would allow for any strengthening. Thus, the official forecast maintains the current intensity for the next 36 h, and it is likely that inner-core processes will dictate any short-term fluctuations in intensity. After 36 h, slow weakening should begin as southwesterly vertical wind shear gradually increases and Epsilon reaches the north edge of the Gulf Stream. However, the system is likely to merge with another mid-latitude cyclone and become a powerful extratropical low at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast closely mirrors the previous one and the latest global model wind speed consensus forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 34.1N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  24/0000Z 35.6N  61.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  24/1200Z 37.5N  60.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  25/0000Z 40.3N  56.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE New York, NY)
 48H  25/1200Z 43.7N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 60H  26/0000Z 48.1N  39.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE St Johns, NF Canada)
 72H  26/1200Z 52.5N  27.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Galway, Ireland)
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

WS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22, 2020

The eye became a little more apparent on satellite images but recently has become less defined. The system has a somewhat ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast with a broad outer cloud band wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the northern portion of the system. The current intensity estimate is kept at 75 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Since Epsilon should be passing near a modestly warm oceanic eddy during the next day or so, some slight short-term restrengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening should occur due to cooler waters, but the system is likely to remain a strong cyclone for the next few days. By around 72 hours, the GFS and SHIPS guidance indicates that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical transition over the north Atlantic. Afterward, the global models show the system merging with another cyclone at the higher latitudes.

Epsilon continues to move just a bit to the west of due north, or at about 345/8 kt. The cyclone is expected to move mainly northward on the western side of a mid-tropospheric ridge during the next couple of days. By around 48 hours, Epsilon should turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is not much different from the previous one, and is very close to the latest corrected dynamical consensus, HCCA, prediction.

The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus radii guidance, RVCN.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight, and the Tropical Storm Warning for that island has been discontinued.
  • 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 32.6N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  23/1200Z 33.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  24/0000Z 35.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  24/1200Z 37.8N  60.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  25/0000Z 40.5N  56.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE  Shelburne, NS Canada)
 60H  25/1200Z 44.3N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 72H  26/0000Z 48.4N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE St Johns, NF Canada)
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22, 2020 

Satellite images indicate that the eye of Epsilon has lost definition over the past several hours. While satellite intensity estimates haven’t changed much yet, they were generally higher than the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, on the lower side of the satellite estimates after placing more weight on the aircraft data.

Epsilon is moving faster to the north-northwest this afternoon, at roughly 8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward overnight and continue on that heading for a day or two while it moves through a break in the central Atlantic ridge. Epsilon is likely to move considerably faster to the northeast over the weekend as it get caught in the mid-latitude flow. The only significant adjustment to this forecast is a small northward shift in a couple of days. The new NHC track is still south of the model consensus over the weekend and beyond, placing more emphasis on the global models than the regional hurricane guidance. After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to merge with a much larger extratropical cyclone over the far north Atlantic.

The small core that Epsilon has maintained for the past couple of days seems to be degrading, and perhaps it is forming a larger secondary wind maximum based on AMSR microwave data. Otherwise, a trough interaction and a small warm eddy near the Gulf Stream could lead to a slight recovery in Epsilon’s strength tomorrow or Saturday. Either way, the global models make this hurricane’s wind field quite a bit larger (especially the 50- and 64-kt winds), and that’s reflected in the latest wind radii forecast. The new NHC wind speed prediction is about the same as the previous one, adjusted slightly for a lower initial wind speed.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
  • 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 31.9N  61.4W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  23/0600Z 33.0N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  23/1800Z 34.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  24/0600Z 36.8N  61.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  24/1800Z 39.0N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  25/0600Z 42.2N  53.6W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
 72H  25/1800Z 46.5N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
 96H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22, 2020 

Earlier aircraft data indicate that Epsilon has lost a lot of strength since yesterday. The maximum flight-level winds were only 79 kt, considerably less than satellite alone would indicate. However, satellite images show that the eye has recently become better defined, and the weakening trend has probably stopped. The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, a bit higher than recent aircraft data with the satellite trend reversal and because the pressure was still about 965 mb on the last pass.

Epsilon’s wobbling have continued overnight, but a longer-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane is still moving to the northwest (325/6 kt). The cyclone should turn north-northwest soon and northward by tomorrow while it moves through a break in the central Atlantic ridge. All the guidance is showing the hurricane accelerating northeastward starting this weekend into early next week as it becomes entrained in the fast mid-latitude flow. While the new forecast is a little west of the previous NHC track for the first day or two, it is still east of the model consensus, with only cosmetic speed changes at long range.

The forecast intensity could oscillate up and down during the next couple of days while Epsilon moves over marginally warm waters, and potentially undergoes an eyewall replacement and/or a conducive trough interaction. The intensity forecast through 48 hours is a compromise of these opposing factors, showing little change. At longer range, while the SSTs cool, a mid-latitude trough is likely to keep Epsilon’s strength mostly intact as the hurricane eventually contributes to a rather significant non-tropical cyclone over the far North Atlantic on day 4. The forecast for early next week is a little higher than the last one based primarily on the global model fields.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
  • 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 30.9N  61.2W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  23/0000Z 31.9N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  23/1200Z 33.4N  61.8W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  24/0000Z 35.1N  61.8W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  24/1200Z 36.9N  60.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  25/0000Z 39.6N  57.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  25/1200Z 43.0N  50.8W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
 96H  26/1200Z 52.5N  30.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE St Johns, NF Canada)
120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21, 2020 

The eye of the hurricane remains well-defined this evening, although the surrounding cloud tops are beginning to warm a bit. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Epsilon a little while ago and found peak 700 mb flight level winds of 110 kt, which continues to support an intensity of 100 kt. The central pressure had fallen slightly since this afternoon, but recent center fixes suggest that it is leveling off. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next 12 hours or so due to inner-core processes. Later on Thursday, a slow weakening trend is expected to begin as vertical shear over Epsilon should gradually increase. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model consensus. By 96 hours, the global models indicate that the strong cyclone will merge with a frontal zone over the mid-latitudes, and the NHC forecast shows the system as extratropical by that time.

Epsilon’s motion has exhibited what is likely a trochoidal wobble, which is typical of slow-moving intense hurricanes. This has resulted in a more westward track during the past 6 hours or so. The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt, and is indeed more westward than previous estimates. However, recent satellite images indicate little short-term motion. The track model guidance is in very good agreement that Epsilon will move northwestward and then north-northwestward on Friday and Friday night. Later, the cyclone should move north of the subtropical ridge, and turn northward and northeastward. By days 4-5, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward under the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast is right on top of the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance, HCCA and is only slightly west of the previous NHC track through 24 hours. This puts the closest approach of Epsilon to Bermuda between 00Z and 06Z Friday.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
  • 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 29.6N  60.6W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  22/1200Z 30.5N  61.4W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  23/0000Z 31.8N  61.9W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  23/1200Z 33.2N  62.2W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  24/0000Z 34.9N  62.2W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  24/1200Z 36.9N  61.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  25/0000Z 39.2N  58.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE  Shelburne, NS Canada)
 96H  26/0000Z 46.5N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)
120H  27/0000Z 56.0N  25.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Post Tropical (WSW Isle of Mull, UK)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21, 2020 

Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify this afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is very impressive, with a warm well-defined eye and a closed ring of eyewall convection with cloud tops colder than -60 deg C. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Epsilon earlier today measured SFMR winds of around 100 kt and max flight level winds of 100 kt. Dropsonde data indicated peak surface winds of 106 kt with deeper-layer averages of 95-100 kt, which also lends support to the higher SFMR winds, and surface pressures have fallen since the special advisory. Therefore the initial intensity is raised to 100 kt, making Epsilon the 4th major hurricane of the season.

Epsilon’s estimated motion is 305/9 kt, and the hurricane is expected to gradually turn more northwestward tonight as it is steered by a mid-level ridge building to its north and east. Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the ridge becomes oriented east of the hurricane, Epsilon will turn northward and move into the mid-latitudes, where it is expected to accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend. There was a westward shift noted in a couple of the track models, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in the near-term period to better reflect the guidance consensus.

As Epsilon continues to gain latitude, environmental conditions will become increasingly unfavorable for additional strengthening. The hurricane is forecast to move over cooler waters beginning tonight, and southerly deep-layer shear is expected within the next 24-48 h. With that being said, small intensity fluctuations cannot be completely ruled out tonight given Epsilon’s development trends and well-organized structure. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to the SHIPS guidance for the first 24-36 h of the forecast period. Afterwards, the official forecast shows more steady weakening with the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, and the new NHC intensity prediction follows the intensity consensus. Epsilon could begin its extratropical transition by Sunday night, and it is forecast to be a powerful extratropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic by day 5.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
  • 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 29.6N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  22/0600Z 30.5N  60.9W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  22/1800Z 31.8N  61.6W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  23/0600Z 33.0N  62.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  23/1800Z 34.4N  62.1W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  24/0600Z 36.2N  61.8W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  24/1800Z 38.3N  59.8W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  25/1800Z 44.5N  47.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Glace Bay, NS Canada)
120H  26/1800Z 54.0N  28.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE Cartwright, LB Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM AST Wed Oct 21, 2020 

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Epsilon is significantly stronger than was previously analyzed. A blend of the flight-level and surface wind data supports an intensity of 95 kt. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward during the first 12-24 h to account for this new data. It is possible that Epsilon could strengthen a little more and become a major hurricane later today before conditions become less conducive tomorrow. No changes were made to the track forecast at this time.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda.
  • 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1800Z 29.4N  59.7W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  22/0000Z 29.6N  60.1W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  22/1200Z 30.9N  60.8W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  23/0000Z 32.3N  61.2W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  23/1200Z 33.7N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  24/0000Z 35.0N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  24/1200Z 36.6N  60.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  25/1200Z 42.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
120H  26/1200Z 49.5N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Post Tropical (ENE St Johns, NF Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 21, 2020

Epsilon is maintaining a healthy satellite appearance this morning after its rapid intensification last night. A 10-to-15 n mi-wide eye is evident in visible satellite imagery this morning, and 0815Z GMI 89 GHz microwave imagery shows a closed eyewall with deep convection surrounding the well-defined center. Objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS and subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB support raising the initial intensity to 80 kt with this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon for a better estimate.

Epsilon took a brief westward jog this morning, and its initial motion is now estimated at 285/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north-northeast of the cyclone should continue steering Epsilon toward the west-northwest today with a slightly slower forward speed. Then, another ridge is forecast to build to the east of the hurricane, which should turn the cyclone toward the northwest on Thursday and northward on Friday. Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the hurricane gains latitude and becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the cyclone will likely accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, mainly beyond 48 h when more spread is noted in the track guidance.

Weak vertical wind shear and waters with marginal oceanic heat content could allow for some additional modest strengthening today, and the NHC intensity forecast now brings Epsilon to a 85-kt hurricane in 12 h. Then, Epsilon’s intensity is likely to plateau as environmental conditions gradually become less conducive for additional development. Beyond 36-48 h, increasing southerly deep-layer shear and cooler waters are forecast to induce a slow weakening trend, although the tropical-storm-force wind field should expand as Epsilon moves into the mid-latitudes and begins its extratropical transition. The forecast calls for Epsilon to be extratropical by 120 h, but it is expected to remain a powerful cyclone as it moves across the northern Atlantic at the end of the forecast period.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda.
  • 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 29.1N  59.1W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  22/0000Z 29.6N  60.1W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  22/1200Z 30.9N  60.8W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  23/0000Z 32.3N  61.2W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  23/1200Z 33.7N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  24/0000Z 35.0N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  24/1200Z 36.6N  60.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  25/1200Z 42.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
120H  26/1200Z 49.5N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20, 2020 

The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast becoming increasingly symmetric. Also the eye, which was intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better defined. Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. This is the tenth hurricane of the season.

Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading. The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and northwest. In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center coming closest to the island in around 48 hours. In 3 to 4 days, the hurricane should turn northward and move through a break in the subtropical ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus.

Delta [Epsilon] is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate vertical shear during the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, the oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very low which should limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be extratropical by that time.

Key Message:

  • 1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon’s track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 28.5N  56.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  21/1200Z 29.2N  58.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  22/0000Z 29.9N  59.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  22/1200Z 31.0N  60.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  23/0000Z 32.2N  61.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  23/1200Z 33.5N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  24/0000Z 34.6N  62.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  25/0000Z 38.4N  58.8W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)
120H  26/0000Z 44.0N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St Johns, NF Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20, 2020

Epsilons structure has greatly improved this afternoon. Deep convection is wrapped more tightly around the center, and a small central dense overcast is evident in recent satellite imagery. Overall, the cyclone appears better organized and more tropical in nature as it fends off weak to moderate deep-layer shear and some dry mid-level air in its surrounding environment. There are even some hints of an eye-like feature trying to develop in recent visible and microwave imagery. A 14Z ASCAT-B overpass showed several 45-50 kt wind barbs in the northern semicircle of Epsilon, and its organization has improved since then. A T3.5 Dvorak classification from SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 55 kt with this advisory. Epsilon is a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward as far as 300 n mi in its northern semicircle.

The cyclone has accelerated northwestward today, and its estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/12 kt. Epsilon should continue to move northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and east. The tightly clustered guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward and is faster with the storm motion through about 72 h, and these trends are reflected in the official NHC track forecast. Epsilon is now forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday night before recurving ahead of an upper-level trough that should move over the western Atlantic this weekend. By day 5, Epsilon could be near the beginning of its extratropical transition as it races northeastward across the central Atlantic.

Epsilon has strengthened today despite some negative environmental factors including weak to moderate deep-layer shear and dry air noted in water vapor imagery along the southwestern periphery of the storm. Given recent satellite trends and little expected change in the environmental conditions during the next day or so, additional strengthening appears likely. The official NHC track forecast lies well above the guidance consensus in the near term and most closely follows the SHIPS output, which brings Epsilon to hurricane strength overnight. As the cyclone gains latitude and moves over waters with lower oceanic heat content beyond 48 h, the intensity is expected to level off, and the NHC forecast better aligns with the ICON and HCCA aids through the rest of the forecast period.

Key Message:

  • 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday or early Friday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon’s track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 27.9N  55.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  21/0600Z 28.8N  57.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  21/1800Z 29.3N  59.6W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  22/0600Z 30.3N  60.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  22/1800Z 31.6N  61.2W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  23/0600Z 33.0N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  23/1800Z 34.0N  61.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  24/1800Z 36.7N  60.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
120H  25/1800Z 42.0N  51.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Shelburne, NS Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20, 2020 

A curved band of deep convection persists near and over the center of Epsilon this morning. The cyclone is experiencing southwesterly vertical wind shear as it interacts with an upper-level trough to its southwest, and the storm still has a hybrid-like appearance in satellite imagery with a band of convection well to the east and northeast of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that some dry mid-level air is impinging on the south and west sides of the circulation. A very recent ASCAT-A overpass shows several 45-kt vectors in the southeast quadrant, and it is certainly possible that the intensity could be near 50 kt based on the known undersampling issues. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt with this advisory, which is consistent with a T3.0 Dvorak classification from SAB. Epsilon remains a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than 250 n mi in the northern semicircle.

Although Epsilon was drifting northeastward earlier this morning, recent visible satellite imagery suggest Epsilon is beginning to turn north-northwestward or northwestward with a faster forward speed as a mid-level ridge builds to its north and east. This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Beyond 72 h, a deep-layer trough moving eastward into the western Atlantic should cause Epsilon to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward near the end of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made to the previous track in line with the consensus aids (excluding the outlying HWRF solution at this time). Epsilon is still forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

The intensity forecast remains tricky since moderate south-southwesterly shear is expected to persist for another 12-18 h as Epsilon continues to interact with a nearby upper-level trough. By the time the deep-layer shear abates, Epsilon will be gaining latitude and moving over waters with lower oceanic heat content. Additionally, intrusions of environmental dry air could inhibit or at least slow the development process. Regardless, the global models show fairly significant deepening of the cyclone in the coming days, and the intensity guidance consensus still supports at least gradual strengthening. Therefore, little change was made to the official NHC intensity forecast, which still shows Epsilon becoming a hurricane late this week.

Key Message:

  • 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon’s track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the island.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 26.5N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  21/0000Z 27.4N  56.1W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  21/1200Z 28.2N  58.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  22/0000Z 28.9N  59.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  22/1200Z 30.0N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  23/0000Z 31.4N  60.7W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  23/1200Z 32.4N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  24/1200Z 34.5N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
120H  25/1200Z 39.5N  55.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19, 2020 

Water vapor imagery indicates that Epsilon has been interacting with a shear line/dissipating cold front from the north and with a negatively tilted upper-level trough from the south. Furthermore, a pronounced dry slot has developed in the eastern semicircle, which has severed the convective band that had been wrapping about three-fourths of the way around the circulation.

Overall, the cloud pattern more closely resembles that of an occluded extratropical low, with a small inner-core tropical feature. A 20/0025Z ASCAT-A pass indicated a small fetch of mostly straight-flow 40-kt winds located 60-90 nmi northeast of the well-defined surface center. Given the distance from the low-level center and lack of any significant curvature to those winds, undersampling is probably not occurring. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 40 kt for this advisory, which is consistent with satellite classifications of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and a 19/2202Z SATCON estimate of 42 kt. Epsilon is a large cyclone with gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than 250 nmi in the northern semicircle.

The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Epsilon is expected to meander within weak steering currents well to the southeast of Bermuda for the next 12 h or so. By late Tuesday, a ridge is forecast to build to the north and east of the cyclone, forcing Epsilon generally toward the northwest through Friday. As an upper-level trough and associated frontal system approach the cyclone, Epsilon is expected to turn sharply northeastward between the trough and the ridge by late Friday, and accelerate northeastward thereafter over over the north Atlantic. The latest NHC model guidance is coming into better agreement, with a tight clustering of he various consensus models lying essentially along the previous advisory track. On the forecast track, Epsilon should make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

Epsilon is forecast to remain over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of at least 27C the next 36 h or so and, when coupled with 200-mb temperatures of -55C, sufficient instability will exist to continue to allow for deep convection to be generated both in the inner- and outer-core regions of the cyclone. Thus, gradual strengthening is forecast during that time. However, by 48 h and continuing through 72 h, SSTs cool to near 26.5C and the depth of the relatively warm water becomes quite shallow, as indciated by upper-ocean heat content values dropping to near zero by 72 h.

The large and expansive wind field should result in cold upwelling both ahead of and beneath the inner-core wind field, which is likely to temper the intensification process. This may be reflected in the past couple of HRWF runs which no longer make Epsilon a hurricane by the time the cyclone approaches Bermuda on Friday. For now, the intensity forecast has only been lowered slightly since there may be some baroclinic interaction with an approaching upper-level trough that could offset the cooler waters. Epsilon could be undergoing extratropical transition by the 120-h forecast period, but for now the system will be shown as still being tropical since it will be located over marginal SSTs near 26C at that time.

Key Message:

  • 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon’s track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 25.3N  55.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  20/1200Z 26.1N  55.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  21/0000Z 27.5N  56.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  21/1200Z 28.3N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  22/0000Z 29.1N  59.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  22/1200Z 30.4N  60.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  23/0000Z 31.3N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  24/0000Z 32.9N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
120H  25/0000Z 36.4N  60.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Mon Oct 19, 2020

Earlier this afternoon, Epsilon had a hybrid-type structure in satellite imagery, with a partially exposed center and a broken convective band that wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the storm. However, recent satellite imagery shows a small convective burst near the center that gives Epsilon a more tropical appearance. ASCAT-B/C passes from this morning indicate the system has a large and asymmetric wind field, with 34-kt winds extending over 200 nm away from the center in the northern semicircle. This is, in part, attributable to the environmental pressure gradient with a strong high pressure ridge centered east of the Canadian Maritimes. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt with this advisory, supported by a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and a 37-kt objective 14Z SATCON estimate.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day or so. By 36-48 h, a period of weaker wind shear should allow Epsilon to continue strengthening while becoming better organized and eventually developing a more symmetric wind field. There is still increasing spread in the intensity guidance beyond 48 h, with a split between the stronger statistical-dynamical guidance and the weaker regional hurricane models. Given these mixed signals, little change was made to the intensity forecast with this advisory. The official NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the guidance consensus, but remains lower than SHIPS/LGEM. The official forecast now calls for Epsilon to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Epsilon remains nearly stationary as it meanders over the central Atlantic under weak steering currents. The cyclone should begin moving slowly northward tonight, then turn northwestward with a faster forward speed through midweek as a mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to build to the north and northeast of Epsilon. The current NHC forecast track shows Epsilon making its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday. By this weekend, the cyclone should begin turning northward ahead of an upper-level trough expected to move off the northeastern U.S. coast. Most of the track guidance is tightly clustered for the next several days, except for the latest HWRF. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the right, and so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted similarly to reflect the latest guidance consensus.

Key Message:

  • 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon’s track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 25.5N  55.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  20/0600Z 25.9N  55.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  20/1800Z 27.0N  56.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  21/0600Z 28.1N  57.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  21/1800Z 28.8N  59.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  22/0600Z 29.8N  60.6W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  22/1800Z 31.1N  61.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  23/1800Z 32.8N  62.8W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)
120H  24/1800Z 35.5N  62.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19, 2020 

Although the center of the system has become exposed over the past few hours, it is very well defined. In addition, the convective banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation has continued to improve. Based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5 from TAFB, the system is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. ASCAT-A has missed the circulation, but ASCAT-B caught the far eastern edge of the wind field and indicates winds of 30-35 kt in that area. The tropical storm is located within an environment of moderate southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and over warm waters. These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day or so. By 48 hours, decreasing vertical wind shear could allow for more significant intensification, and there is increasing spread in the intensity guidance by that time. The statistical guidance is at the upper-end of the envelope while the regional hurricane models are lower. The NHC forecast is a bit on the conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent advisories.

Epsilon is meandering over the central Atlantic as it is located within an area of weak steering currents near the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the system by midweek, and this ridge should slide eastward later in the week. These changes in the synoptic pattern should cause Epsilon to begin moving west-northwestward to northwestward at a faster rate of speed by midweek. The models are again in fairly good agreement and the NHC track is near the center of the guidance envelope.

Key Message:

  • 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon’s track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 25.6N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  20/0000Z 25.8N  55.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  20/1200Z 26.4N  55.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  21/0000Z 27.6N  56.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  21/1200Z 28.3N  58.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  22/0000Z 29.1N  59.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  22/1200Z 30.2N  60.8W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  23/1200Z 32.3N  62.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St Georges, Bermuda)
120H  24/1200Z 34.5N  63.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE St Georges, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 18, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large non-tropical low-pressure system located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda remain poorly organized and displaced mainly to the east of the low-level center. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development during the next day or two. Although a subtropical or tropical depression could still develop during that time, upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur by late Tuesday and Wednesday while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week while it moves slowly northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 18, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 600 miles southeast of Bermuda is poorly organized and displaced well east of the low-level center. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or so while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week as it moves slowly northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 18, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 550 miles east-southeast of Bermuda have been gradually increasing in both coverage and organization during the past 24 hours. Further development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or so while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of the week as it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda have not become significantly better organized over the past several hours. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda have shown little change in organization since earlier today. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 17, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 16, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a non-tropical low-pressure system located about 550 miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to become better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more organized. Additional development of this system is expected, and a subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 16, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Shower activity associated with a broad non-tropical low pressure system located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is continuing to become better organized, and satellite wind data indicates that the circulation has become somewhat better defined. Additional development of this system is expected, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the next few days while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 16, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. Shower activity associated with a broad non-tropical low pressure system located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has become a little better organized this morning. Additional gradual tropical or subtropical development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it remains nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 16, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it remains nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 15, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is forming about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system will be possible through the middle of next week while it remains nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the next couple of days several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Additional slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing about between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A weak area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles has become less well defined since yesterday. Strong upper-level winds are expected to continue to inhibit development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Although development is no longer anticipated, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.
  • 2. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Some slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 3. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A weak area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, well to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to continue to inhibit development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
  • 2. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Some slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 3. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 14, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Thursday morning, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea late Thursday into Friday, and Hispaniola Friday night into Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
  • 2. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Some slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 3. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure approaching the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles today, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and Hispaniola on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 14, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles today, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and Hispaniola on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

If this system is named, it will become Tropical Storm Epsilon.

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Video: UK and Ireland Weather Forecast HD: 24 Oct 2020 [Updated at 0000 hours UTC]