Tropical Storm Norbert

Tropical Storm Norbert Track 1500 Hours October 14 2020
Tropical Storm Norbert Track 1500 Hours October 14 2020

Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm Norbert NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14, 2020 (see NEW video below)

Vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are clearly taking a toll on Norbert. Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed as Norbert has lost most, if not all, of its deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows a tongue of dry air drawn into the cyclone’s circulation by a mid-level low-pressure system centered to the west of Norbert. If current trends continue, Norbert could degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Thursday. The advisory intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a 1750Z ASCAT-B overpass that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northern semicircle of Norbert. This is consistent with T2.0 subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB.

Norbert has moved a bit faster than was previously forecast, and its initial motion is estimated at 330/15 kt. The track guidance consensus depicts a northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed through tonight as the depression moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid-level low. A slow northward turn is expected on Thursday. The NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast based on 12Z global model trends.

Norbert will continue weakening during the next day or so in an environment characterized by 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear, dry mid-level air, and low oceanic heat content. The official intensity forecast shows remnant low status at 24 h and dissipation at 36 h, which is consistent with the consensus of reliable global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 24.7N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW San Carlos, Mexico)
 12H  15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW San Juanico, Mexico)
 24H  15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Bahía Asunción, Mexico)
 36H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14, 2020 

Recent satellite imagery suggests Norbert is beginning to feel the effects of deep-layer shear and drier mid-level air associated with a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered to its west-northwest. While Norbert still shows signs of organization, the deepest convection is now displaced to the north of the estimated center position. The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt this morning based on objective and subjective current intensity Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS, SAB, and TAFB. It is likely that Norbert has peaked in terms of its intensity.

Norbert’s estimated initial motion is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 h, with a gradual decrease in forward speed as the upper low pulls away from Norbert. There is increasing spread noted in the model track guidance as the steering flow weakens between 24-48 h, but the general trend is for a slightly more northward motion during this time. Only minor adjustments were made to the official NHC track forecast, which remains close to the various consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA.

Increasing deep-layer shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler sea-surface temperatures are expected to induce a weakening trend beginning later today, and Norbert will likely become a tropical depression this afternoon. The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests Norbert will lose its deep convection within the next 24-36 h, and the official NHC forecast shows the system degenerating to a remnant low before dissipation at 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 23.1N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  15/0000Z 24.4N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW San Carlos, Mexico)
 24H  15/1200Z 25.6N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW San Juanico, Mexico)
 36H  16/0000Z 26.6N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSWS Punta Abreojos, Mexico)
 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14, 2020

Norbert continues to produce a concentrated area of deep convection, but it has been very difficult pinpointing the exact location of the center overnight. Earlier ASCAT data and an 0152 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass suggests that the center could be a little north of the previous estimates, but overnight shortwave infrared imagery and TAFB and SAB fixes still place it closer to the southern portion of the convective mass. The advisory position is a compromise between the various estimates, but leans toward the previous track out of respect for continuity. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 35 kt, which is used as the initial wind speed for this advisory. The earlier ASCAT overpass revealed some slightly stronger wind vectors, but these appear to have been rain inflated.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 325/13 kt. Norbert is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest. This general heading should continue over the next 24 to 36 hours with some reduction in forward speed as Norbert begins to weaken and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The dynamical models are in general agreement, but there are differences in how fast and far north Norbert will move. The models that maintain a deeper cyclone depict a more poleward motion. The NHC track leans toward the southern solutions by 24 hours since Norbert is likely to weaken and become a more vertically shallow system by that time.

Norbert only has a short window of opportunity in which to strengthen this morning. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should begin to weaken the tropical storm. Norbert is likely to become a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours as it encounters sea surface temperatures below 26C, moderate to strong shear, and a more stable atmosphere. The global models indicate that the low will dissipate within a couple of days, and the NHC forecast follows suit.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 22.1N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  14/1800Z 23.5N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Todos Santos, Mexico)
 24H  15/0600Z 24.9N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW San Juanico, Mexico) 
 36H  15/1800Z 26.0N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW San Juanico, Mexico)
 48H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13, 2020

Low pressure associated with the remnants of Norbert has become well-organized today, with persistent convection near and north of the estimated low-level center. Partial ScatSat and ASCAT-B passes near of this system suggest the low-level circulation is closed, and 25-30 kt scatterometer winds are noted in the northeast quadrant of the low. Additionally, earlier surface observations from Socorro Island, Mexico and ship observations from the Nathaniel B Palmer research vessel reported northwesterly winds on the backside of the system. Together, all this information supports the conclusion that the remnants of Norbert have redeveloped into a tropical depression. The initial intensity for Norbert is set at 30 kt based on the recent ASCAT-B overpass and a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification from SAB.

Norbert is only forecast to be a short-lived depression given the increasingly hostile environmental conditions it is expected to face during the next 24-48 h. While the vertical wind shear is currently weak, it is forecast to quickly increase by Wednesday courtesy of a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The majority of the guidance shows little or no intensity change, and the official NHC intensity forecast calls for Norbert to remain a 30-kt depression during the next 24 h. This should be followed by weakening as Norbert transitions to a remnant low by 48 h due to 20+ kt of deep-layer shear and decreased oceanic heat content. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Thursday night.

Norbert is currently moving to the northwest at 11 kt. This general motion will continue for the next 24 h as the depression moves between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the upper low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward, Norbert’s forward speed will slow as the depression is drawn more northward before dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 19.8N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Puerto Vallarta, Mexico)
 12H  14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Todos Santos, Mexico)
 36H  15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW San Carlos, Mexico)
 48H  15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW San Juanico, Mexico)
 60H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 13, 2020

Norbert has increased in organization this evening, with a pair of microwave passes as well as infrared satellite imagery showing a tightly curved band of convection wrapping about halfway around the low-level center. In addition, a well-defined outflow pattern is surrounding the cyclone in the current low-shear environment. Based on these developmental trends, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.

There is only about a 12-18 h opportunity for Norbert to maintain its current strength or perhaps intensify a little more before it reaches a hostile environment just to its north. By 24 h, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly shear and a dry and stable atmospheric environment, while moving over cooler waters. Therefore, the cyclone should start weakening by 24 h and should degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by 48 h. The model guidance indicates the remnant low should dissipate very soon thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest consensus intensity guidance, and is only higher than the previous NHC forecast due to the increase in the initial intensity.

Norbert has been moving northwestward at around 13 kt since this afternoon as the cyclone has been steered between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and an upper-level low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward over the next day or so, Norbert’s forward speed should decrease. What remains of Norbert should then turn northward on Thursday within the low-level flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 21.0N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  14/1200Z 22.4N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  15/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  15/1200Z 25.5N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  16/0000Z 26.5N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico))
 60H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10, 2020

Recent satellite imagery shows multiple low-level cloud swirls in the vicinity of Norbert’s last estimated center position. A 0350Z ASCAT-A pass depicts a broad cyclonic circulation with at least two centers, and the only 20 kt or higher winds are displaced well to the southeast and likely associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In fact, the most well-defined circulation in the scatterometer data appears to have originated from the ITCZ and not Norbert. Additionally, Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB indicate the system is too weak to classify or barely classifiable. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Norbert as its remnants appear to have merged into a broader ITCZ circulation over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 13.8N 106.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS OF NORBERT
 12H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09, 2020

Small, sporadic bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the center of Norbert, mainly in the western semicircle due to some easterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite-derived wind data suggested that Norbert’s low-level circulation is becoming elongated, and its structure will be reassessed overnight when new scatterometer data becomes available. The initial intensity remains 25 kt with this advisory. The global models suggest Norbert will open up into a trough and merge with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) within the next 48-72 h. However, it could degenerate into a remnant low even sooner if convection wanes. The official forecast hangs on to pesky Norbert for a couple more days before showing dissipation by 60 h.

Norbert is moving northwestward at 4 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone will continue steering Norbert slowly to the northwest for the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the track model consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 14.0N 106.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 09, 2020

Deep convection has persisted near the center of Norbert for the past several hours. However, a recent ASCAT overpass as well as visible satellite imagery revealed that the low-level circulation is becoming elongated. In addition, the wind field surrounding the depression suggests that is remains very near, if not embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The initial intensity of 25 kt is based off data from the ASCAT overpass. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate that Norbert will open into a trough as it becomes absorbed into the ITCZ in a couple of days, and the official forecast now indicates dissipation just after 48 h.

Norbert continues to move toward the northwest at 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 13.5N 106.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  10/0600Z 13.8N 106.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  10/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  11/0600Z 14.7N 107.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  11/1800Z 14.9N 107.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09, 2020

Although the deep convection associated with Norbert has increased this morning during the diurnal maximum, it is lacking in organization. However, this new convection has bought the depression some time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based off the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Since there is plenty of warm water along Norbert’s forecast track, the cyclone will likely continue to sputter rounds of convection like this morning’s for the next couple of days, which should at least maintain the system as a tropical depression during that time. In a few days, it is expected that the combination of a slow spin down of Norbert’s vortex, and an increase in the environmental low-level flow should cause the system to open into a trough of low pressure. The latest NHC forecast no longer indicates a remnant low phase, but instead forecasts Norbert to remain a weak depression until dissipation in a few days. This solution is in agreement with the majority of the global models.

Norbert is finally making its anticipated move toward the northwest, albeit at a meager 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 13.3N 106.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08, 2020

Norbert’s satellite presentation has changed little in the past several hours. Intermittent bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the center, and the depression’s asymmetric appearance indicates it is still experiencing southeasterly shear. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on a T1.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB and earlier satellite-derived wind data. Environmental conditions are not expected to change much during the next several days.

Norbert will remain over warm sea-surface temperatures, but weak to moderate east-southeasterly shear will likely persist over the cyclone. Little intensity change is expected over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast keeps Norbert as a 25-kt tropical depression through the next 60 h, although minor intensity fluctuations are possible. Between 36-72 h, increasing deep-layer shear should expedite Norbert’s degeneration into a remnant low, and this advisory calls for Norbert to become a remnant low at 72 h.

Norbert has moved little in the past 6-12 h, as the large-scale steering currents remain weak. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, which should steer Norbert slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. A mid- to upper-level low is expected to move across northern Mexico on Sunday, which could cause Norbert to stall or meander once again if it remains a depression. Later in the forecast period, whatever remains of Norbert should move westward as it becomes embedded within the low-level easterly trades. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly towards the left of the previous forecast, in line with the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 13.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  09/1200Z 13.1N 106.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  10/0000Z 13.5N 106.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  10/1200Z 14.2N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  11/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  11/1200Z 14.8N 107.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  12/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  13/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  14/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08, 2020

Norbert has a ragged and disorganized appearance, with asymmetrical convection bursting intermittently around the center. Satellite imagery suggests that the system is now experiencing some southeasterly shear. A recent ASCAT overpass sampled peak winds of 24 kt, so the advisory intensity will remain 25 kt.

The current environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much over the next few days. Therefore, only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter a more stable atmosphere, which would limit convection and cause Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to be declared a remnant low before that time. Another plausible scenario is that Norbert’s low level circulation dissipates and opens up into a surface trough later in the forecast period. The only change to the latest NHC forecast is that no further strengthening is indicated, which is agreement with every available intensity model except the SHIPS guidance.

Norbert has barely budged since early this morning due to a lack of steering currents. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, which should cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By Sunday, however, a mid-upper level low digging across northern Mexico should weaken the ridge, and the model guidance has trended toward Norbert once again meandering for a couple of days. By day 5, low-level ridging building to the northwest of Norbert should cause the shallow system to begin a westward motion. Due to the lack of run-to-run model consistency in the 3-5 day period, that portion of the track forecast is of low confidence. The NHC forecast track was changed little through 48 h, then is slower at 60-96 h to reflect the second collapse of the steering currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 13.1N 106.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  09/0600Z 13.0N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  09/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  10/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  10/1800Z 14.5N 107.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 60H  11/0600Z 14.8N 107.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  11/1800Z 14.9N 107.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  12/1800Z 15.0N 107.9W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  13/1800Z 15.1N 109.6W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08, 2020

Intermittent bursts of deep convection are maintaining the circulation of Norbert. First-light visible satellite imagery shows the latest burst over the northeastern potion of the cyclone with a partially exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being held at 25 kt, and is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as data from an earlier ASCAT overpass.

The environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much over the next few days, with perhaps some slight increase in the atmospheric moisture in about 24 h. Therefore, only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter a more stable atmosphere, which should limit convection and cause Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to be declared a remnant low before that time.

Norbert has been nearly stationary since the previous advisory, and very little motion is expected today due to a lack of steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to slowly build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through the weekend, which should cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By late in the forecast period, the forecast track becomes quite uncertain, as there are now indications that whatever is left of Norbert may interact with a disturbance to its west. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one through 72 h, but is left of that track beyond 72 h due to a shift in the consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 13.2N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 60H  11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 72H  11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 96H  12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
120H  13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07, 2020

Tropical Depression Norbert is still struggling to maintain any deep convection near its center. Satellite imagery indicates the low-level center remains exposed, and a small convective burst noted in recent infrared imagery is already collapsing. The initial intensity is perhaps generously held at 30 kt based on a blend of recent objective satellite estimates and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Overnight scatterometer data should help further assess whether additional weakening has occurred.

Norbert continues to meander within a weak steering pattern, and its center has drifted southeast of the previous advisory position. Little movement is expected during the next 12 h, but Norbert should begin slowly moving west-southwestward from 12-36 h. Then, the cyclone should move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 5 kt for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this advisory.

Although current satellite trends do not bode well for Norbert, the system remains embedded in a favorable environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance suggests the deep-layer shear will increase slightly during the next 24 h, which combined with any more dry air intrusions could cause Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low. On the other hand, increasing mid-level moisture and weaker shear beyond this time period could allow for a convective burst capable of getting Norbert back to minimal tropical storm strength. Given the mixed signals for small intensity fluctuations in either direction, the official intensity forecast holds Norbert’s intensity steady for the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  08/1200Z 13.2N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  09/0000Z 13.1N 107.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  09/1200Z 13.0N 107.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  10/0000Z 13.2N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 60H  10/1200Z 13.9N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 72H  11/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  13/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 07, 2020

Convection has decreased in association with Norbert since the last advisory, with the system now comprised of a mostly-exposed swirl of low-level clouds. Based on the weakened cloud pattern, the initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt and Norbert is downgraded to a depression.

Daytime visible imagery shows that Norbert is south of the previous advisory location, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 180/2. Little motion is expected during the next 12 h or so as the cyclone is in an area of weak steering currents. A west-southwestward drift is forecast from 12-36 h. This will be followed by a slow motion toward the west-northwest or northwest for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. The forecast guidance has shifted to the right at 96 and 120 h, so the new forecast track is shifted in that direction as well. Otherwise, the new forecast, which lies near the various consensus models, has only slight changes since the previous advisory.

While Norbert is seemingly in a favorable environment of light vertical wind shear over warm water, none of the intensity guidance calls for significant strengthening. Indeed, the GFS and ECMWF models call for the system to dissipate before 120 h, possibly due to dry air intrusions. Given the favorable shear and sea surface temperatures, the official intensity forecast calls for the system to survive for 5 days with little change in strength in overall agreement with the intensity guidance. It should be noted that if any strong convective bursts occur, these could cause the system to strengthen just the little bit it needs to regain tropical storm strength.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 13.4N 107.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  08/0600Z 13.4N 107.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  08/1800Z 13.3N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  09/0600Z 13.1N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  09/1800Z 13.1N 108.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 60H  10/0600Z 13.8N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 72H  10/1800Z 14.7N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 96H  11/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  12/1800Z 18.0N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07, 2020

Norbert has recovered somewhat from the dry air intrusion that occurred last night. A new burst of deep convection developed near the center early this morning, but the associated cloud tops are beginning to warm and the convection is becoming displaced over the northeastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt, and is based off the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The storm is struggling to stay organized despite being over warm waters and in an environment of relatively low shear. By Thursday, the SHIPS guidance suggests that the shear will increase to around 10-15 kt. This shear, along with occasional dry air intrusions similar to one experienced last night, could gradually weaken the system. On the other hand, the warm waters could counteract the moderately negative environmental factors. The latest NHC forecast still favors the latter scenario, and shows Norbert remaining a 35-kt tropical storm throughout the forecast period. This intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is a compromise between the SHIPS guidance and the model consensus.

The initial motion is stationary, although the exact center location has been difficult to pinpoint this morning. The steering flow is forecast to remain very weak over the next couple of days, and most of the models show little movement through tonight followed by a slow westward drift Wednesday through Thursday. By late this week, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north to northeast of the cyclone, which should force Norbert on a west-northwestward track. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 72 h, but was adjusted a little north after that time due to a northward shift in the guidance. However, the new track forecast remains south of the consensus aids late in the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 14.2N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 60H  10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 72H  10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 96H  11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06, 2020

Norbert’s satellite presentation has degraded slightly over the past several hours as its convective cloud tops have warmed compared to earlier today. The system may be feeling the effects of some weak westerly wind shear, as the coldest cloud tops are displaced somewhat to the east of the estimated low-level center position. Regardless, objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS and a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB support holding the initial intensity at 45 kt with this advisory.

Sea surface temperatures of 29 degrees Celsius and 10 kt or less of deep-layer vertical wind shear should support at least modest strengthening during the next 24 h or so. The latest SHIPS guidance indicates moderate southeasterly wind shear will develop over this small cyclone by Thursday and persist into the upcoming weekend. This should inhibit further intensification and may even cause Norbert to weaken. There is once again a fairly large spread in the intensity guidance, with the global models still struggling to capture this compact system and depicting steady weakening during the next few days. Meanwhile, SHIPS guidance maintains Norbert at tropical storm strength and even shows some gradual strengthening. Since the statistical-dynamical models have performed better with Norbert, the NHC intensity forecast once again trends above the consensus aids and closer to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance. The official forecast shows Norbert peaking as a 50-kt tropical storm on Wednesday, then weakening slightly on Thursday and leveling off through the weekend.

Norbert is drifting slowly north-northwestward tonight. The storm is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days as distant Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea weakens the mid-level ridge that had been steering Norbert. This weak steering environment could lead to some erratic storm motion until the ridge becomes re-established later this week, but the track guidance consensus suggests little movement during the next couple of days. By Friday night, the storm should begin moving slowly westward or west-northwestward, and the models are in better agreement with regards to this general storm motion at 72 h and beyond. The latest NHC track forecast follows the consensus aids more closely than any individual model solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 14.5N 106.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  07/1200Z 14.6N 107.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  08/0000Z 14.7N 107.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  08/1200Z 14.7N 107.1W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  09/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 60H  09/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 72H  10/0000Z 15.2N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 96H  11/0000Z 16.0N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
120H  12/0000Z 16.5N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06, 2020

A compact central dense overcast with cloud tops occasionally cooling to -80 degrees C has persisted over the center of Norbert throughout the day. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 41 kt near the center of storm. However, due to the small size of the cyclone, the highest winds are likely not being sampled. Therefore, the initial intensity is being raised to 45 kt, and this is in good agreement with the latest Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB.

Norbert is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear while over very warm waters for the next couple of days. Despite the positive environmental factors in the near term, model guidance is in poor agreement on the future intensity of Norbert. The spread in the forecast intensity has widened even further today, with most of the global and hi-resolution dynamical models weakening the system over the next few days, while the SHIPS and LGEM guidance favor slow strengthening. Since the SHIPS guidance has been the most accurate for Norbert’s intensity thus far, the latest NHC forecast is close to, but just below the SHIPS guidance values through 48 h. After 48 h, the shear is expected to become moderate, and there are indications that subsidence will increase over the cyclone. These negative environmental factors should inhibit further intensification, and could cause the cyclone to weaken.

The steering currents around Norbert are collapsing, as the mid-level ridge over southern Mexico dissipates in response to Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Model tracks diverge by a few hundred miles in varying directions while the steering flow is weak. The consensus guidance is in between these solutions and shows very little movement for the next 72 h. By late this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the cyclone, which would result in a slow west-northwestward to westward motion. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 14.4N 106.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  07/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  07/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  08/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 60H  09/0600Z 14.5N 107.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 72H  09/1800Z 14.8N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 96H  10/1800Z 15.5N 110.1W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
120H  11/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06, 2020

The overall appearance of Norbert has changed little since early this morning, with a mass of deep convection pulsating over the low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 40 kt.

The environment appears conducive for Norbert to strengthen over warm waters with low vertical wind shear. Despite this, most of the global and hi-res dynamical models do not strengthen Norbert, and in fact the HWRF and HMON both weaken the system over the next couple of days. Therefore, the consensus aids also do not indicate that the system will intensify. On the other end of the spectrum, the SHIPS guidance favors strengthening over the next couple of days and indicates that Norbert will be nearing hurricane strength within a few days. The latest NHC forecast remains above the consensus aids but below the SHIPS guidance, suggesting some gradual strengthening over the next 48 h, prior to the increase in shear.

Norbert continues to move northwestward at 6 kt, steered by a weakening mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The steering currents are forecast to collapse by tonight, and the cyclone is expected to meander through the middle of the week. By late this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the cyclone which would result in a slow west-northwestward motion. Due to the weak steering flow, there is a larger than normal spread in the track guidance. The latest NHC forecast remains close to the consensus aids, and is slightly faster then the previous forecast at days 3-5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 14.2N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  07/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  07/1200Z 14.5N 106.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  08/0000Z 14.7N 106.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  08/1200Z 14.8N 106.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 60H  09/0000Z 15.0N 107.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 72H  09/1200Z 15.2N 107.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 96H  10/1200Z 15.7N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
120H  11/1200Z 16.1N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05, 2020

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is beginning to show better signs of organization tonight. Recent satellite imagery depicts a burst of deep convection near the estimated center of the depression with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. This trend, along with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggests the system may be nearing tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is perhaps conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory based on earlier T2.0 classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The estimated initial motion of the depression remains 340/6 kt. This general motion should continue through the overnight hours as the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over southern Mexico. As the ridge weakens through the middle of the week, the steering currents will break down and the system will likely meander well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico for several days. By days 4-5, global models indicate the ridge should rebuild over southern Mexico, which would eventually support a northwestward motion late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast track shows little change with this advisory, and remains close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

The intensity forecast remains challenging with above average spread in the guidance. The environmental conditions generally appear favorable, with low to moderate deep-layer wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance indicates gradual strengthening will occur over the next several days. However, global models including the GFS and ECMWF, along with the HWRF and HMON, forecast little intensity change or even weakening as the system meanders well offshore. This could be a product of the system struggling to separate from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or possible upwelling as it drifts over the same general area for several days. Given these mixed signals in the guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains close to the previous advisory and only shows modest strengthening during the forecast period. This forecast still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 13.3N 105.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 60H  08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 72H  09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 96H  10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
120H  11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05, 2020

Satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better-defined today. The associated deep convection has also become more organized and convection has persisted over the low-level center since early this morning. In addition, a banding feature has also developed over the western portion of the circulation. Based on these trends, advisories have been initiated for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The ASCAT data showed winds as high as 32 kt. However, these vectors were at the very edge of the data swath, and may be unreliable. The initial intensity of 30 kt is therefore based off the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.

The forecast for the depression is not straightforward and there is a larger than normal amount of uncertainty for both the future track and intensity of the cyclone. The global models generally do not favor much strengthening beyond 24 h and some of the guidance, including the GFS and HWRF indicate weakening. On the other hand, the SHIPS guidance suggests gradual strengthening and indicate the cyclone could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The overall environment appears conducive for the depression to intensify over the next several days, with very warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with. One negative influence that the global models could be picking up on is an ongoing interaction with the larger scale Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The NHC forecast, out of respect for the skilled global and dynamical models, does not show as a robust rate of strengthening as suggested by the SHIPS guidance. However, some intensification is indicated throughout the forecast period due to the aforementioned favorable environmental factors.

The initial motion of the depression is 340/6 kt. This motion is expected to continue through tonight as the depression is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to weaken tomorrow and steering currents over the depression are expected to collapse through the middle of the week. The track guidance is highly divergent after 48 h, as the models appear to steer the cyclone in varying directions based off the interaction with the ITCZ in the midst of weak synoptic steering. By the end of the forecast period, the models are generally in better agreement on a slow northwesterly motion as the ridge rebuilds to the northeast of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 12.8N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 48H  07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 60H  08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 72H  08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 96H  09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
120H  10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 5, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Marie, located over the western part of the basin.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized this morning in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression will likely form later today or tonight while the system drifts northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.
  • 2. A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some slight development of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it moves slowly northward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development by Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Oct 4, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located over the western part of the basin.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it drifts northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly northward toward the coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Oct 4, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located in the western region of the basin.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little during the past several hours in association with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts northward offshore of the coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Oct 3, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located about 1150 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

  • 1. An elongated area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this disturbance has increased during the past few hours. Additional development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
  • 2. Another area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts northward offshore of the southern coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 3, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located about 1150 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

  • 1. An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 2. Another area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts northward offshore of the southern coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Oct 3, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

  • 1. An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next couple of days several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. Another area of low pressure could form south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts near or south of the southern coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

If this storm system is named, it will be named Tropical Storm Norbert.

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