Tropical Storm Wilfred

Remnant Winfred Track 2300 Hours September 20 2020
Remnant Winfred Track 2300 Hours September 20 2020

 

Tropical Storm Winfred Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm Wilfred – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20, 2020 (see video below)

Northwesterly vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on Wilfred. Recent infrared satellite imagery along with scatterometer data indicate that Wilfred’s low-level circulation has become an open trough of low pressure. Therefore, Wilfred is no longer a tropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The remaining deep convection has a linear shape and appears to be the result of the system interacting with an upper-level trough to its northwest. The scatterometer data revealed peak winds of close to 30 kt to the north of the trough axis, and that is the basis for the initial intensity.

The system is moving generally westward at about 15 kt. The trough should continue to move westward at a slightly slower forward speed until it weakens and dissipates within a few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 15.9N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

This is the last NHC advisory on Wilfred.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20, 2020

Wilfred is not a healthy tropical cyclone as strong vertical shear from the combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of a nearby upper-level trough are impinging upon the system. While there is substantial deep convection, it is more linear rather than curved in appearance and it may be more a product of forcing from the upper-level trough rather than the tropical cyclone itself. Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have reduced some at 18Z, though the intensity remains a perhaps generous 30 kt.

The tropical cyclone continues to move west-northwest at a fast 17 kt clip. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory, except for the final 60 hr point that does show a turn toward the northwest based upon the TVCN and HCCA track consensus techniques.

Strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction in the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a day or two followed shortly thereafter by dissipation. Most statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement. A plausible alternate scenario is that the small circulation opens up into a trough and dissipation occurs sooner than indicated below. It is worth noting that the ECMWF model does suggest the possibility of reformation of the system farther north by day three. However, this scenario is discounted at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 15.9N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  21/0600Z 16.3N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  21/1800Z 16.5N  49.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  22/0600Z 16.5N  50.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  22/1800Z 16.8N  51.8W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  23/0600Z 17.8N  52.7W   20 KT  25 MPH - Dissipated (ESE St. John's A&B)
72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20, 2020

First-light visible imagery of Wilfred shows a well-defined center south of widespread – but not very well banded – deep convection. The improved positioning this morning allows for a more confident assessment of its movement toward the west-northwest at 17 kt. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is slightly farther west due to the faster initial motion within 36 hours, then slightly farther east afterward based upon the TVCN track consensus approach.

While the ASCAT scatterometer passes this morning missed Wilfred’s center, ASCAT-B observed 30 kt peak winds in its northeastern quadrant. This value is used as the initial intensity, consistent with both SAB and TAFB’s Dvorak classifications.

The combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of an impinging upper-level trough are causing about 20 kt vertical shear from the west-northwest. This shear should increase over the next couple of days as Wilfred gets into closer proximity with the trough. The strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction of the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a couple of days followed within another day or so by dissipation. All statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement with this scenario. Alternatively, Wilfred could become a remnant low sooner, if the convection ceases later today or Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 15.7N  44.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  21/0000Z 16.2N  46.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  21/1200Z 16.5N  48.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  22/0000Z 16.8N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  22/1200Z 17.0N  51.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  23/0000Z 17.2N  52.7W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19, 2020 

Microwave data since the previous advisory indicates that the center of Wilfred is located near the southwestern edge of the deep convection. The displacement of the center from the convection is the result of moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, and is based on an ASCAT-B overpass from around 0000 UTC that revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt.

Wilfred is headed toward an area of increasing westerly wind shear, and a drier mid-level environment. These negative factors should lead to weakening in 24 to 48 h, and the global models dissipate the cyclone within the next few days. The official forecast follows suit, but given the small size of the cyclone it could weaken and dissipate sooner than indicated below.

The initial motion estimate is 295/14, a little faster than before. Wilfred is forecast to remain on a west-northwestward heading through Sunday, but should turn westward within the low-level flow by Sunday night or Monday. The latest NHC track forecast is once again similar to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 14.5N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  20/1200Z 15.3N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  21/0000Z 15.8N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  21/1200Z 16.2N  47.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  22/0000Z 16.4N  49.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sat Sep 19, 2020 

A small low-level swirl that is apparently Wilfred’s circulation center was noted in late afternoon visible imagery. The coldest cloud tops are in a small area of bursting convection to the northeast of the center with a ragged convective band noted to the south and southwest. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates remain 35 kt, and that will be the intensity for this advisory, but could be a bit generous.

Increasing westerly shear and a drying airmass along the forecast track should result in weakening within 36 to 48 hours, and global models show the cyclone dissipating by 60 h. However, given the small size of the system, it wouldn’t be surprising if the cyclone weakened or dissipated sooner than shown here.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12. Wilfred should continue west-northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours before turning westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 14.0N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  20/0600Z 14.8N  41.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  20/1800Z 15.6N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  21/0600Z 16.0N  46.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  21/1800Z 16.2N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19, 2020 

Wilfred still consists of a very small low-level circulation embedded within an elongated area of low pressure. There has been a bit of an increase in deep convection near/over the estimated center during the past few hours, and the intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS SATCON.

Wilfred will be moving over SSTs of around 28C but will experience a gradual increase in westerly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours as an upper-level trough amplifies to the northwest, and this should result in little change in strength during that time. Beyond that time, the cyclone moves into a drier and more stable airmass, which should result in the system becoming a remnant low and dissipating in 60 to 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN consensus.

The initial motion estimate based on the latest satellite fixes is 285/12. Wilfred should continue moving generally west- northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours and then turn more westward by 48 h as it becomes a shallower system. The new NHC track forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and has been adjusted farther south at 36 h and beyond, trending toward the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 13.4N  38.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  20/0000Z 14.2N  40.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  20/1200Z 15.2N  43.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  21/0000Z 15.9N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  21/1200Z 16.2N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  22/0000Z 16.3N  49.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18, 2020 

Conventional satellite imagery shows that Wilfred’s surface circulation has lost quite a bit of definition during the last several hours, and it has been difficult to pinpoint the center. Additionally, deep convection has become less organized and the cloud tops just to the east of the estimated center position have warmed considerably. The initial intensity is generously held at 35 kt for this advisory and is in best agreement with blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

The GFS and ECMWF global model soundings indicate 30-35 kt of northeasterly shear at about 300 mb, and it’s apparently undercutting the much lighter, diffluent southeasterly flow above. Statistical-dynamical guidance, however, still show an outside chance of some strengthening Saturday, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Afterward, a combination of Teddy’s massive outflow and increasing northwesterly shear produced by an mid- to upper-level trough to the north of the cyclone, should induce slow weakening on Sunday and this trend should continue through the forecast period.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt, and the cyclone is being steered by a low to mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north. A few of the global models are hinting at a slow turn toward the north-northwest prior to dissipation as the steering pattern becomes very meridional with developing high amplitude high pressure over the eastern Atlantic, and Hurricane Teddy well to the northwest creating a large weakness over the western Atlantic. For now, the NHC forecast shows some reduction in forward speed at day 3, before dissipation, and lies close to the consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 12.8N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  19/1200Z 13.5N  38.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  20/0000Z 14.5N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  20/1200Z 15.8N  43.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  21/0000Z 16.7N  46.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  21/1200Z 17.3N  48.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 72H  22/0000Z 17.9N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18, 2020 

There haven’t been a lot of changes with Wilfred today, with the northern side of the circulation looking rather dry while the center remains close to a burst of convection. The initial wind speed is kept 35 kt, closest to the TAFB classification. Wilfred could strengthen some during the next day or so before increasing upper-level westerlies winds likely begin by Sunday. A gradual weakening is expected into early next week, though the model guidance is in worse agreement than the last advisory due to the positioning of an upper-level low. The forecast continues to show the storm ending up on the convergent side of the low and dissipating, close to the previous one.

Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt, after accounting for a re-positioning westward. Most of the guidance agrees on a scenario that maintains this track for the next few days, with a turn toward the west as the cyclones dissipates. The new forecast is closest to the GFS-based guidance. Similar to the intensity forecast, however, there are some models that suggest Wilfred could slow down and turn to the right in a couple of days if it is stronger than anticipated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 12.5N  34.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  19/0600Z 13.2N  36.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  19/1800Z 14.3N  39.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  20/0600Z 15.4N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  20/1800Z 16.4N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  21/0600Z 17.1N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 72H  21/1800Z 17.5N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18, 2020 

Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with scatterometer data from last night (this morning’s data missed the eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier than Vince of 2005.

Further intensification is possible during the next day or two before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days. That should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up into a trough by day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the consensus and corrected-consensus aids.

Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus. I should mention that if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back west-northwestward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 11.9N  32.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  19/0000Z 12.6N  34.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  19/1200Z 13.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  20/0000Z 14.5N  40.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  20/1200Z 15.6N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  21/0000Z 16.7N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 72H  21/1200Z 17.3N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 96H  22/1200Z 18.0N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 17, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Depression Sally, located inland over eastern Alabama.

  • 1. Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better organized this morning in association with a well-defined low-pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and, if this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.
  • 3. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Azores. Some additional subtropical development is possible over the next day or so as it moves east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph. The system is expected to reach the coast of Portugal late Friday. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 16, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sally, located inland over southeastern Alabama, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have changed little in organization since yesterday. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph over the next day or two, and its chances of acquiring some subtropical characteristics before it reaches the coast of Portugal late Friday appear to be decreasing. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 16, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and is issuing advisories on Sally, located over the far western portion of the Florida panhandle, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico gradually continue to become better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves southeastward and eastward at about 10 mph during the next few days. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 16, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, on Hurricane Sally, centered inland near Gulf Shores, Alabama, on recently upgraded Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that have become a little better organized during the past several hours. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves southeastward and eastward at about 10 mph during the next few days. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 15, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, on Hurricane Sally, centered less than a hundred miles south of the coast of Alabama, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. An elongated area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend a couple of hundred miles off the coast of northeastern Mexico. Development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves southeastward at about 10 mph during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 15, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, on Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. An elongated area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during the next few days where it will encounter warmer oceanic temperatures, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics this week. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 15, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, on Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower or thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, gradually continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during the next few days where it will encounter warmer oceanic temperatures, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 14, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda, on Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the remnants of Rene, which dissipated over the central Atlantic.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is currently producing little shower or thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 14, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located north of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Rene, located over the central Atlantic, on recently upgraded Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for development, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly southwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development of the system this week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 14, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located near Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Rene, located over the central Atlantic, on Tropical Storm Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-One, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western and southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a weak area of low pressure. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds while it moves slowly southwestward and then southward over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
  • 2. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development of the system this week as the wave moves westward at about 10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

If this system is named, it will become Tropical Storm Wilfred.

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