Tropical Storm Wilfred

Tropical Storm Winfred Track 2300 Hours September 18 2020
Tropical Storm Winfred Track 2300 Hours September 18 2020

Tropical Storm Winfred Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm Wilfred –  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18, 2020 (see video below)

Conventional satellite imagery shows that Wilfred’s surface circulation has lost quite a bit of definition during the last several hours, and it has been difficult to pinpoint the center. Additionally, deep convection has become less organized and the cloud tops just to the east of the estimated center position have warmed considerably. The initial intensity is generously held at 35 kt for this advisory and is in best agreement with blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

The GFS and ECMWF global model soundings indicate 30-35 kt of northeasterly shear at about 300 mb, and it’s apparently undercutting the much lighter, diffluent southeasterly flow above. Statistical-dynamical guidance, however, still show an outside chance of some strengthening Saturday, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Afterward, a combination of Teddy’s massive outflow and increasing northwesterly shear produced by an mid- to upper-level trough to the north of the cyclone, should induce slow weakening on Sunday and this trend should continue through the forecast period.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt, and the cyclone is being steered by a low to mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north. A few of the global models are hinting at a slow turn toward the north-northwest prior to dissipation as the steering pattern becomes very meridional with developing high amplitude high pressure over the eastern Atlantic, and Hurricane Teddy well to the northwest creating a large weakness over the western Atlantic. For now, the NHC forecast shows some reduction in forward speed at day 3, before dissipation, and lies close to the consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 12.8N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  19/1200Z 13.5N  38.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  20/0000Z 14.5N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  20/1200Z 15.8N  43.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  21/0000Z 16.7N  46.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  21/1200Z 17.3N  48.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 72H  22/0000Z 17.9N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18, 2020 

There haven’t been a lot of changes with Wilfred today, with the northern side of the circulation looking rather dry while the center remains close to a burst of convection. The initial wind speed is kept 35 kt, closest to the TAFB classification. Wilfred could strengthen some during the next day or so before increasing upper-level westerlies winds likely begin by Sunday. A gradual weakening is expected into early next week, though the model guidance is in worse agreement than the last advisory due to the positioning of an upper-level low. The forecast continues to show the storm ending up on the convergent side of the low and dissipating, close to the previous one.

Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt, after accounting for a re-positioning westward. Most of the guidance agrees on a scenario that maintains this track for the next few days, with a turn toward the west as the cyclones dissipates. The new forecast is closest to the GFS-based guidance. Similar to the intensity forecast, however, there are some models that suggest Wilfred could slow down and turn to the right in a couple of days if it is stronger than anticipated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 12.5N  34.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  19/0600Z 13.2N  36.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  19/1800Z 14.3N  39.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  20/0600Z 15.4N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  20/1800Z 16.4N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  21/0600Z 17.1N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 72H  21/1800Z 17.5N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18, 2020 

Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with scatterometer data from last night (this morning’s data missed the eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier than Vince of 2005.

Further intensification is possible during the next day or two before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days. That should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up into a trough by day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the consensus and corrected-consensus aids.

Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus. I should mention that if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back west-northwestward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 11.9N  32.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 12H  19/0000Z 12.6N  34.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 24H  19/1200Z 13.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 36H  20/0000Z 14.5N  40.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 48H  20/1200Z 15.6N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's A&B)
 60H  21/0000Z 16.7N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 72H  21/1200Z 17.3N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE St. John's A&B)
 96H  22/1200Z 18.0N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's A&B)
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 17, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Depression Sally, located inland over eastern Alabama.

  • 1. Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better organized this morning in association with a well-defined low-pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and, if this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.
  • 3. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Azores. Some additional subtropical development is possible over the next day or so as it moves east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph. The system is expected to reach the coast of Portugal late Friday. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 16, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sally, located inland over southeastern Alabama, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have changed little in organization since yesterday. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph over the next day or two, and its chances of acquiring some subtropical characteristics before it reaches the coast of Portugal late Friday appear to be decreasing. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 16, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and is issuing advisories on Sally, located over the far western portion of the Florida panhandle, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico gradually continue to become better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves southeastward and eastward at about 10 mph during the next few days. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 16, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, on Hurricane Sally, centered inland near Gulf Shores, Alabama, on recently upgraded Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that have become a little better organized during the past several hours. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves southeastward and eastward at about 10 mph during the next few days. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 15, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, on Hurricane Sally, centered less than a hundred miles south of the coast of Alabama, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. An elongated area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend a couple of hundred miles off the coast of northeastern Mexico. Development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves southeastward at about 10 mph during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 15, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, on Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. An elongated area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during the next few days where it will encounter warmer oceanic temperatures, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics this week. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 15, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, on Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower or thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, gradually continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during the next few days where it will encounter warmer oceanic temperatures, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 14, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda, on Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the remnants of Rene, which dissipated over the central Atlantic.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is currently producing little shower or thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 14, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located north of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Rene, located over the central Atlantic, on recently upgraded Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for development, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly southwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development of the system this week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 14, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located near Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Rene, located over the central Atlantic, on Tropical Storm Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-One, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western and southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a weak area of low pressure. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds while it moves slowly southwestward and then southward over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
  • 2. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development of the system this week as the wave moves westward at about 10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

If this system is named, it will become Tropical Storm Wilfred.

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