Tropical Storm Omar

Tropical Depression Omar Track `1700 Hours September 5 2020
Tropical Depression Omar Track `1700 Hours September 5 2020

Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm OmarNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05, 2020

Omar continues to separate from a small lingering area of deep convection that is located more than 100 n mi south-southwest of the center. During the past couple of days, Omar has produced just enough convection to maintain its status of a tropical depression, but now it no longer meets the criteria of sufficently organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory on Omar issued by NHC. The initial intensity of the remnant low is 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds east of the center.

The remnant low is moving northward at 9 kt, a couple of hundred miles east of a cold front. The models suggest that the remnants of Omar should accelerate north-northeastward and merge with the front in about 24 hours, leading to extratropical transition. Dissipation is expected shortly thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 38.4N  56.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Ocean City, MD)
 12H  06/0600Z 40.2N  55.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WSW New York City, NY)
 24H  06/1800Z 43.3N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Shelburne, Canada)
 36H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

Omar is barely a tropical cyclone. The center is completely exposed to the north of a slowly shrinking area of sheared deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Omar remains in an environment of northerly wind shear, dry air, and it is headed toward cool waters. These conditions should cause Omar to finally become a remnant low soon. Although the forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low at 24 hours, it certainty could become one at any time before then after its limited amount of deep convection dissipates. Satellite images show an approaching cold front about 300 n mi to the northwest of Omar. This front is expected to merge with the system, causing Omar or its remnants to become extratropical by Sunday afternoon.

The tropical depression is now moving northward at 9 kt. A much faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the remainder of the weekend as Omar, or its remnants, become more embedded in the fast steering flow ahead of the aforementioned cold front.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 37.4N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Ocean City, MD)
 12H  06/0000Z 39.0N  56.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW New York City, NY)
 24H  06/1200Z 41.9N  53.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Shelburne, Canada)
 36H  07/0000Z 45.2N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Canada)
 48H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04, 2020 

Another burst of convection has developed near and to the south of the center of Omar, so the system continues as a tropical depression despite ongoing strong shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on recently received scatterometer data and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB. A combination of continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday night or Sunday.

Omar is starting its expected north-northeastward turn and the initial motion is now 070/4. An approaching deep-layer trough should cause Omar to turn north-northeastward tonight and Saturday and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the northern central Atlantic.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 35.6N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  05/1200Z 36.8N  56.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  06/0000Z 38.9N  55.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Fri Sep 04, 2020

Omar continues to hang on as a tropical depression. The cyclone is producing a small area of thunderstorms to the south of the center, enough to continue writing advisories on this system for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Omar has been more resistant than expected to the ongoing northerly wind shear, but the models insist that the continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low this evening or early Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday night.

The tropical depression is still moving eastward at about 5 kt. An approaching deep-layer trough should cause Omar to turn north- northeastward tonight and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the northern central Atlantic this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 35.3N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  05/0600Z 36.2N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  05/1800Z 38.0N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04, 2020 

Omar produced minimal deep convection from around 2100 UTC yesterday through 1200 UTC this morning. Since that time, a new burst of convection has developed close enough to the depression’s center to justify continuing advisories for the moment. If this convection dissipates soon, like a few small overnight bursts did, Omar will likely be declared post-tropical this afternoon due to a lack of organized convection. ASCAT-B showed a few believable 25-30 kt vectors and is the basis for the intensity analysis.

Omar’s status has no meaningful bearing on the forecast. An approaching deep-layer trough from the west should cause the weak cyclone to turn northeastward or north-northeastward later today and accelerate in that direction through the weekend. A lack of deep convection and the increase in forward speed will likely cause Omar to dissipate by early Sunday.

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 35.2N  57.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  05/0000Z 35.8N  57.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  05/1200Z 37.1N  56.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  06/0000Z 39.0N  55.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03, 2020 

The larger mass of deep convection from earlier today that was south of the exposed low-level center of Omar has since dissipated. The only convection that remains is a few small patches in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt, and is based off a recent ASCAT overpass showing peak 26 kt wind vectors. If the current state of the tropical depression persists through much of tonight, then by definition the system would no longer qualify as a tropical cyclone. The only chance for Omar to hang on despite very strong northerly wind shear is the fact that it is still over SSTs of about 27 C. After 24 h, dry air is expected to envelop the system. Therefore, over this weekend whatever remains of Omar is expected to dissipate ahead of an approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The official NHC forecast shows Omar degenerating into a remnant low by Friday morning and dissipating by Sunday morning, and this scenario is in agreement with the global models.

The depression continues to move east-southeast at 9 kt in steering flow around a subtropical ridge to its south, and another, larger low pressure system to its northeast. The other low is forecast to continue to lift northeastward, which should result in an end to the southerly component of Omar’s motion tonight or early Friday. By Friday night, a turn to the northeast is expected to occur as Omar gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 35.2N  59.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  04/1200Z 35.2N  58.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  05/0000Z 35.6N  57.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  05/1200Z 36.8N  56.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  06/0000Z 38.3N  55.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03, 2020

The GOES-16 visible and enhanced infrared satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours and is comprised of a sheared depression with a deep convective mass decoupled well to the south of the surface circulation center. Based on the earlier METOP-B scatterometer pass and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Gradual weakening is still forecast during the next couple of days as the cyclone continues to move in the persistent, blistering northerly shear environment on the order of 40 to 45 kt. Large-scale models insist that Omar will degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and dissipate by Sunday morning. The NHC forecast will, once again, reflect this scenario.

It appears that the slightly larger non-tropical low a few hundred miles to the east-northeast of Omar is causing the depression to move in an east-southeastward fashion at 9 kt. This binary interaction is only temporary, however, and Omar should return to an eastward track by Friday morning as the low pressure system downstream accelerates northeastward. Afterward, a turn toward the northeast is forecast early Saturday morning in response to an approaching frontal boundary from the northwest, and the Azores high several hundred miles to the east building southwestward over the central Atlantic. The official forecast is a little to the south of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the various multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 35.4N  60.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  04/0600Z 35.3N  58.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  04/1800Z 35.3N  57.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  05/0600Z 36.3N  56.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  05/1800Z 37.5N  56.1W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03, 2020 

Surprisingly, Omar’s cloud pattern has changed little since it was classified as a tropical depression yesterday morning. A shapeless deep convective cloud mass still exists about 60 miles to the southeast of the sheared, exposed surface circulation center and the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are a carbon copy of the satellite intensity classifications 24 hours ago. Therefore, the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt. The large-scale models as well as the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show further weakening to a remnant low in 24 hours, and dissipation as soon as Saturday morning. Because of Omar’s resiliency in such a harsh upper-level wind surrounding environment, the NHC forecast shows Omar holding onto depression status for another 12-18 hours, then finally degenerating to a remnant low Friday.

The initial estimated motion hasn’t changed either during the past 24 hours and is toward the east, or 085/11 kt within the deep-layer westerly flow provided by a subtropical ridge situated over the central Atlantic. This due east heading should continue through Friday morning, the a turn toward the east-northeast to northeast is forecast by Friday night in response to an approaching mid-latitude frontal zone. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 35.9N  61.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 12H  04/0000Z 35.8N  59.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  04/1200Z 35.6N  57.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  05/0000Z 36.2N  56.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  05/1200Z 37.8N  55.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02, 2020 

A brief and small burst of convection developed near the center of Omar early this evening, only to be quickly sheared well to the southeast of the exposed low-level center. Any new convection that developed during the day has been smaller in coverage and shorter lived, and this trend is expected to continue. The initial intensity is being held at 30 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass showing several peak 30-kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle. There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Ongoing wind shear of 40-50 kt should not allow any developing convection to persist near Omar’s center, and the depression should degenerate to a remnant low sometime on Thursday. This scenario is in agreement with the global model forecasts. A few days from now, the remnant low should dissipate as it becomes absorbed by a larger approaching mid-latitude frontal system.

Omar continues to move east at around 13 kt, to the north of a subtropical ridge. An east or just south-of-east motion is forecast through Friday. After that time, the remnants of Omar should turn east-northeastward to northeastward ahead of the approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and is also near the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 36.1N  64.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 12H  03/1200Z 36.0N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  04/0000Z 35.7N  59.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  04/1200Z 35.5N  58.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  05/0000Z 35.9N  57.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  05/1200Z 36.5N  56.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02, 2020

Conventional satellite imagery shows that Omar’s cloud pattern is rapidly deteriorating, and the surface circulation center has become quite ill-defined. This morning’s METOP-A/B scatterometer passes revealed only a few 33 kt winds well to the southeast of the center and it’s reasonable to determine that those winds are no longer present. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory and is further supported by the subjective satellite intensity T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The latest global model runs agree with the depression degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Dissipation of the remnant low should occur no later than Saturday evening.

Omar’s initial motion is estimated to be due east, or 090/13 kt, within the mid-latitude westerlies north of a subtropical ridge stretching east to west over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue moving eastward through Friday, although a couple of the global models are showing a track a bit more east-southeastward. Around the 60 hour period, the remnant low is expected to reduce in forward speed, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching baroclinic system entering the northwest Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nudged just a little to the right of the previous one, and lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 36.1N  65.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 12H  03/0600Z 36.1N  63.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 24H  03/1800Z 36.0N  61.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 36H  04/0600Z 35.7N  59.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  04/1800Z 35.7N  57.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  05/0600Z 35.9N  56.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02, 2020 

Although is seems as though we’ve been predicting it ad nauseam, the persistent, blistering shear has finally begun to dramatically affect the cyclone. What remains of the deep convective cloud mass is separated more than 100 miles east-southeast of the exposed surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB using the shear scene-type. Omar’s winds should begin to decrease later tonight as the exposed surface center further decouples from the convective mass. A few of the large-scale models show Omar dissipating as soon as Friday, but for this NHC intensity forecast, I’ll indicate weakening to a depression Thursday, followed by degeneration to a remnant low in 36 hours, similar to the multi-model consensus intensity aids and the LGEM.

Omar’s initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 080/11 kt, and is being steered by the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies produced by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue on this general course through Friday. On Saturday, the remnant low is expected to slow a bit, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching frontal boundary moving away from the Canadian Maritimes. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 36.2N  67.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 12H  03/0000Z 36.5N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 24H  03/1200Z 36.5N  62.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 36H  04/0000Z 36.3N  59.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  04/1200Z 36.2N  58.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 60H  05/0000Z 36.4N  56.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  05/1200Z 37.0N  55.8W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01, 2020

Omar is battling strong northwesterly shear, as any burst of convection that tries to develop near the center is quickly pushed off well to the southeast of the cyclone’s exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak CI values from UW-CIMSS, SAB and TAFB, as as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass showing similar winds compared to earlier today.

These intermittent bursts of convection should sustain Omar as a tropical storm at least through early Wednesday. However, the shear is expected to get even stronger by late Wednesday, which should cause a weakening trend to begin around that time. By Thursday night, if not sooner, any organized deep convection is expected to have diminished, and Omar is forecast to become a remnant low. An approaching frontal system should absorb what is left of the remnants a couple of days later. The latest NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the various intensity aids.

Omar continues to move east-northeast, now at 12 kt. The steering pattern is straightforward over the next few days, as the cyclone will be steered east-northeast then eastward around the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Later on in the forecast period, once Omar has become a remnant low, a turn to the northeast is expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 35.8N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nags Head, NC)
 12H  02/1200Z 36.4N  68.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Virginia Beacch, VA)
 24H  03/0000Z 37.0N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Virginia Beach, VA)
 36H  03/1200Z 37.2N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 48H  04/0000Z 37.0N  60.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 60H  04/1200Z 36.9N  58.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 72H  05/0000Z 37.4N  56.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 96H  06/0000Z 40.0N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE New York, NY)
120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01, 2020

Satellite images show that the system remains sheared with a bursting pattern on satellite, occasionally exposing the center, and a large area of curved bands in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. Almost all of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, along with SATCON values, are between 35 to 40 kt, and the lower number is chosen as the initial wind speed since scatterometer data suggests 30 to 35 kt. This makes Omar the 15th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and is the earliest 15th storm on record, besting the previous mark by about a week from Ophelia of 2005.

Any chance for strengthening should end by tomorrow afternoon due to greatly increasing shear, and weakening is likely to commence by then. The persistence of the shear should cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours, if not sooner. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, which is near the model consensus.

The initial motion remains east-northeast or 065/13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the northern side of the subtropical ridge, which is forecast to cause a similar motion through tomorrow and an eastward turn late week due to the orientation of the ridge. The only notable change to the forecast is a slow down at long range in most of the guidance, probably due to a shallow system no longer feeling the stronger deep-layer winds, so the NHC track prediction follows suit. The remnant low should dissipate in 4-5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 35.3N  71.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nags Head, NC )
 12H  02/0600Z 36.1N  69.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 24H  02/1800Z 36.7N  66.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Virginia Beach, VA)
 36H  03/0600Z 37.2N  63.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 48H  03/1800Z 37.2N  61.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 60H  04/0600Z 37.0N  59.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 72H  04/1800Z 37.0N  57.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 96H  05/1800Z 39.5N  53.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE New York City, NY)
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01, 2020 

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the vigorous tropical disturbance located south of Jamaica that the NHC has been tracking the past few days across the Caribbean Sea. An earlier report of 35 kt winds this morning from ship MAOR4 is the basis for the 35-kt initial intensity on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. (PTC-16)

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/16 kt, based mainly on past scatterometer surface wind data and passive microwave satellite fix data. A strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model HCCA.

The disturbance has already developed an upper-level anticyclone, with outflow only restricted in the northeastern quadrant due to northeasterly shear of about 15 kt. This modest northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures (SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air might hinder development for the next 24-36 hours, but model guidance shows that the atmosphere is expected to moisten thereafter and right up until landfall.

The official intensity forecast is similar to the consensus of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and then is a little above the consensus at 36 h and 48 h due to the very warm waters, moistening atmosphere, and low shear conditions. The statistical SHIPS guidance suggests that the cyclone could reach hurricane strength just prior to landfall. This alternate scenario will be evaluated on the next advisory cycle. Due to the system’s expected proximity to the north coast of Honduras and Roatan Island, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for those areas. Additional watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today for Guatemala, Belize, and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 16.1N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Depression (WSW Kingston, Jamaica)
 12H  02/0000Z 16.4N  79.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Kingston, Jamaica)
 24H  02/1200Z 16.6N  82.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Tocoa, Honduras)
 36H  03/0000Z 16.7N  85.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Mangrove Bight, Guanaja)
 48H  03/1200Z 16.8N  87.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hopkins, Belize)
 60H  04/0000Z 16.5N  89.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE El Chal, Guatemala)
 72H  04/1200Z 15.7N  91.7W   15 KT  15 MPH - Low (ESE San Marcos Huista, Guatemala)
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 31, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories newly formed Tropical Depression Fifteen, located about 175 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this evening in association with a broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea. However, satellite-derived winds indicated earlier today that there is no closed circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 30, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A westward-moving tropical wave accompanied by a broad low-pressure area is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea just west of the Windward Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves moves westward at about 15 mph across the central Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent. 4. A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing limited shower activity, and further development is becoming less likely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1210 PM EDT Sun Aug 30, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion on the system over the eastern Caribbean Sea in the first paragraph.

  • 1. UPDATED: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of organization. Recent satellite-derived surface winds also indicated that a broad low pressure system has formed in association with the wave. Additional development of this disturbance is expected over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the system moves moves westward at about 15 mph across the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.
  • 2. A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing limited shower activity, and any further development is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 3. An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent. 4. A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 per percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 29, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph through the Lesser Antilles and the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.
  • 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
  • 3. A low-pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States by early next week. Additional subsequent development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 29, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.
  • 3. A low pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States early next week. Additional subsequent development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 29, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center has issued its last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Laura, located inland over northeastern Kentucky.

  • 1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 28, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Laura, located inland over western Kentucky.

  • 1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Laura, located inland over southeastern Missouri.

  • 1. A tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected to be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Laura, located inland over northeastern Arkansas.

  • 1. A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected to be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 27, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located inland over southern Arkansas.

  • 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic have gradually become a little better organized during the day. Additional development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 2. A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. The northern part of this wave, which is expected to move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is forecast to remain too far to the north and in an unfavorable environment for development to occur. However, the southern part of the wave is expected be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located inland over northwestern Louisiana.

  • 1. A westward-moving tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, they are forecast to gradually become more favorable over the weekend and into early next week when the wave moves into the central and then western tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
  • 2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

If this system is named, it will become Tropical Storm Omar.

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Video: Friday Morning Tropical Update: Tracking several waves in the Atlantic