Tropical Storm Kyle

Post Tropical Storm Kyler Track 0500 Hours August 16 2020
Post Tropical Storm Kyler Track 0500 Hours August 16 2020

Post Tropical Storm Kyler Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm Kyle  – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16, 2020

Shortwave infrared satellite imagery and earlier ASCAT data indicate that Kyle’s circulation has become very elongated, and the center has become ill defined. Model analyses and satellite imagery also suggest that the low is now attached to a prominent warm/stationary front to its east and a weaker trailing cold front to its southwest. Therefore, Kyle has become an extratropical low, and its maximum winds are estimated to be 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Global models indicate that Kyle’s winds should continue to decrease over the next couple of days, with the system dissipating or becoming absorbed by another area of low pressure in about 48 hours.

The initial motion is eastward, or 080/17 kt. Since Kyle is embedded in zonal mid-latitude flow, this general heading and speed are expected to continue during the next day or two until the cyclone dissipates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 40.0N  58.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE New York City, NY)
 12H  16/1800Z 40.4N  55.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE New York City, NY)
 24H  17/0600Z 40.4N  51.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 36H  17/1800Z 39.9N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 48H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15, 2020 

Although Kyle continues to lose its overall tropical appearance, a burst of deep convection redeveloped, albeit sheared to the northeast of the low-level center, which is close enough to the center to still the system classified as a tropical cyclone. ASCAT-A/-B passes at 2333Z/0047Z easily supported winds of 35 kt south through southwest of the center and, allowing for some slight undersampling, the initial intensity has thus been lowered to 40 kt.

The initial motion is 075/17 kt. There is no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Kyle is expected to continue moving east-northeastward tonight and Sunday morning, maintaining that eastward motion until the cyclone is absorbed into a larger extratropical low in a couple of days. The official forecast similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies near the center of the NHC track guidance envelope. Kyle’s low-level center is becoming increasingly stretched out northeast-to-southwest and the earlier burst of deep convection has also recently begun to wane, succumbing to 40 kt of westerly deep-layer vertical wind shear. Thus, Kyle is not long for this world, with the cyclone expected to lose all convection within the next 6 to 12 hours, and continue to weaken and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone Sunday morning. It is highly possible that the next advisory could be the last forecast on Kyle.

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 40.0N  60.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE New York City, NY)
 12H  16/1200Z 40.6N  57.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE New York City, NY)
 24H  17/0000Z 41.1N  53.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 36H  17/1200Z 41.2N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sat Aug 15, 2020

Kyle has taken on a decidedly less tropical appearance. Its circulation has become very elongated and the nearest deep convection is displaced 100 n mi to the east of the surface center. If current trends continue, Kyle could become post-tropical later tonight.

The cyclone is still moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream so redevelopment of convection near the center is not out of the question just yet and NHC will continue advisories for the moment. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on an earlier ship report, but late-arriving scatterometer data from this morning indicated that this could be a little generous. Whether it is tropical or post-tropical, Kyle is forecast to continue moving quickly east-northeastward to eastward for the next day or two until it is absorbed into a larger extratropical low.

Although Kyle has another 12 to 24 hours of warm waters along its forecast track, it looks unlikely that it will be able to take advantage of it due to otherwise hostile conditions. Slight fluctuations in strength are still possible during the next day or two, but no further intensification is explicitly forecast and gradual weakening should begin by late Sunday. Aside from the slight adjustment to show no further strengthening overnight, no substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast, which are based on the multi-model consensus aids TVCA and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 39.4N  63.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE New York City, NY)
 12H  16/0600Z 40.1N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE New York City, NY)
 24H  16/1800Z 40.8N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 36H  17/0600Z 41.3N  51.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 48H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15, 2020

The exposed center of Kyle has become elongated this morning. Deep convection remains limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, a consequence of strong upper-level westerly winds. Despite the shear, there are indications that Kyle’s winds have increased. A ship (KABP) recently reported 50 kt winds just to the south of Kyle’s center. Although the observation was elevated, it still supports increasing the intensity to 45 kt.

Kyle will continue to move quickly east-northeastward away from the coast of the U.S. and well south of the Canadian Maritimes today. The tropical storm is being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough and will likely continue on its general heading and speed for the day or so, followed by a turn toward due east by early Monday. The tropical storm has remained over the Gulf Stream thus far, which is likely helping it to maintain its tropical structure in the face of an otherwise hostile upper-air environment.

Some additional strengthening is possible today or early Sunday before Kyle becomes post-tropical. The exact timing of that transition is still somewhat uncertain, but it is clear that Kyle will become an extratropical cyclone by early next week. After becoming post-tropical, gradual weakening is anticipated until the system becomes poorly-defined and is absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the middle of the week, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 39.0N  65.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 12H  16/0000Z 39.8N  62.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE New York City, NY)
 24H  16/1200Z 40.8N  58.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 36H  17/0000Z 41.7N  54.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 48H  17/1200Z 42.2N  49.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St. John's, Nova Scotia)
 60H  18/0000Z 42.5N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St. John's, Nova Scotia)
 72H  18/1200Z...ABSORBED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14, 2020 

There has not been much change with Kyle during the past several hours. The tropical storm continues to feel the influence of strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. Despite the system’s poor appearance, a ship recently reported winds around 40 kt about 70 n mi southeast of the center. Based on that data and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt.

The tropical storm is moving fairly quickly toward the east-northeast away from the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 065/14 kt. A slightly faster east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected during the next few days as the storm becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope.

The ongoing westerly shear is only expected to get stronger with time, therefore, significant intensification is not expected. However, the global models suggest that a little strengthening is likely during the next day or two while Kyle moves along the northern wall of the Gulf Stream current and interacts with an upper-level trough. Kyle is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream over cool waters and in a drier environment. The extratropical system should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 38.3N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 12H  15/1200Z 39.3N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 24H  16/0000Z 40.7N  62.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE New York City, NY)
 36H  16/1200Z 42.0N  58.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 48H  17/0000Z 43.1N  54.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 60H  17/1200Z 43.6N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St. John's, Nova Scotia)
 72H  18/0000Z 43.5N  43.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St. John's, Nova Scotia)
 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14, 2020 

Earlier this afternoon, one-minute visible satellite imagery clearly showed that an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. had developed a well-defined center. Banding convection wraps from the northeast to the southeast quadrant of the cyclone, and a combination of surface obs, ship reports, and buoy data all indicate that the system is not frontal.

Although its organization is limited by strong southwesterly upper-level winds, the convection appears to be sufficiently well organized to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds were between 30 and 35 kt, so the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, assuming some slight undersampling may have occurred.

Kyle is the earliest 11th named storm on record for the Atlantic basin. The previous record was Katrina, which became a tropical storm on August 24, 2005.

Kyle is moving quickly east-northeastward along the northern portion of the Gulf Stream, and its future as a tropical cyclone is likely tied to how long it remains over those warm waters. A mid-latitude trough will continue to steer the system generally east-northeastward for the next few days, with some increase in forward speed. This will cause the storm to move quickly northeastward away from the U.S. coast and well south of the Canadian Maritimes.

As long as the tropical cyclone remains over warm waters, some strengthening is possible, and this is reflected in all of the intensity guidance. That said, strong upper-level winds will likely keep the system sufficiently sheared to prevent significant tropical strengthening. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin within 48 h, and should be complete by 60 h. Sometime around or just after 72 h, the low is forecast to either merge with or be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the multi-model consensus, with a little extra weight given to the global models for the extratropical phase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 37.7N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Chincoteague,  VA)
 12H  15/0600Z 38.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 24H  15/1800Z 40.0N  64.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE New York City, NY)
 36H  16/0600Z 41.4N  60.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE New York City, NY)
 48H  16/1800Z 42.4N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 60H  17/0600Z 43.1N  51.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 72H  17/1800Z 43.1N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Post Tropical (ESE St. John's, Nova Scotia )
 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 14, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

  • 1. Shower activity has increased in association with a low-pressure area located about 100 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Some additional development is possible during the next couple of days, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form during that time as the system moves east-northeastward well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 13, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces over the next several days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves over warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Stream. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

If this system is named, it will be Tropical Storm Kyle.

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Video: Tracking Tropical Storms Josephine and Kyle