Tropical Storm Fausto

Post Tropical Fausto Track 0800 Hours August 17 2020
Post Tropical Fausto Track 0800 Hours August 17 2020

Tropical Storm Fausto Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm Fausto – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 17, 2020 (see video below)

Fausto has been absent of deep convection for about 12 hours, and with the system over SSTs below 23 degrees Celsius, it is unlikely organized deep convection will return. Therefore, Fausto has become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial wind speed has been set at 25 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB Dvorak T- and CI-numbers. The low should continue to spin down over cooler waters over the next day or so, and the global models indicate it will dissipate by Wednesday morning.

The initial motion estimate is now westward or 280/11 kt. The remnant low should turn west-southwestward on Tuesday while it continues to weaken and comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus.

This is the last NHC advisory on Fausto.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 23.4N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  18/0000Z 23.8N 127.9W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  18/1200Z 23.8N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  19/0000Z 23.4N 132.6W   15 KT  15 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16, 2020

The deep convection has decreased in coverage over the cyclone today, but the center remains underneath clouds tops of about -60 C. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, but this may be a little generous based on late-arriving ASCAT overpass data. There is no change to the forecast intensity philosophy. Fausto has crossed the 26 C SST isotherm and will be heading towards waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore a weakening trend is expected to begin soon. The deep convection should decrease and the cyclone is forecast degenerate to a remnant low Monday night.

Fausto has accelerated and is now moving northwestward at around 17 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn west or just south of west as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 21.5N 121.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii) 
 12H  17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16, 2020

Deep convection with cloud tops at around -70 C has persisted over the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. All available Dvorak T-numbers have been on the increase, and an initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak estimates from both SAB and TAFB. This makes the cyclone the sixth tropical storm of the 2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Fausto is crossing the 26 C SST isotherm and is expected to reach waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore it is likely that we are witnessing Fausto’s peak intensity now. With the cooler waters, the convection should gradually decrease and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in about 2 days. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids.

Fausto has increased its forward speed a bit and is now moving northwestward at around 13 kt. A slightly faster forward speed and a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected through tonight along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn westward or just south of westward as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 20.7N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii) 
 12H  17/0000Z 22.3N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii) 
 24H  17/1200Z 23.6N 124.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii) 
 36H  18/0000Z 24.1N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  18/1200Z 24.0N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  19/0000Z 23.6N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  19/1200Z 22.9N 133.4W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15, 2020

For a brief time this morning, the depression actually developed a broken band of convection that wrapped nearly halfway around the cyclone. However, it didn’t persist for long and convection is mostly once again limited to the southwest quadrant. Scatterometer data valid shortly before 18Z supported an intensity of 30 kt.

The depression has been nearly stationary for the past several hours after drifting west-southwestward most of the morning. It is forecast to meander for the next several days with little change in structure, strength, or position as it continues to encounter strong upper-level winds but weak low- to mid-level steering flow. Near the end of the forecast period, the GFS indicates that the depression could interact with another low related to current invest 94E, which would cause the depression to move eastward. There is very low confidence in this scenario, and it is not supported by most of the other models. Due to the GFS outlier solution, the model consensus has shifted substantially eastward, however the NHC forecast has only been slightly adjusted in that direction.

Given the continued lack of particularly well organized convection, it is possible that the system could either become a remnant low or open into a trough, though neither of those scenarios is explicitly supported by the global or hurricane models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 13.0N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  16/0600Z 13.1N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  16/1800Z 13.6N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  17/0600Z 13.9N 134.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  18/0600Z 14.1N 135.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  18/1800Z 13.8N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  19/1800Z 13.4N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/1800Z 13.0N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14, 2020 

Deep convection has redeveloped over the southern and western portions of the depression’s circulation this evening, however, the low-level center remains exposed due to moderate to strong northeasterly shear. There has been little change to the satellite intensity estimates since this afternoon and no recent scatterometer data. As a result, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The northeasterly shear preventing the depression from strengthening is not forecast to abate over the next 2-3 days, and no significant change in intensity is forecast during that time. If the cyclone survives into early next week, the shear is forecast to lessen, which could allow for some modest strengthening later in the period. The NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the latest statistical guidance and the multi-model intensity consensus.

The depression is meandering westward or 260/3 kt. The cyclone is not expected to move very far over the next several days. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is forecast to steer the depression west-southwestward to westward over the next day or so, but as the ridge weakens and changes orientation a slow northwestward motion is expected by early next week. While there remains some spread in the model guidance, they generally agree that the depression will not move much through the forecast period, and little overall change to the previous forecast was required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 13.4N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  15/1200Z 13.3N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  16/0000Z 13.3N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  16/1200Z 13.5N 134.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  17/0000Z 13.9N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  17/1200Z 14.2N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  18/0000Z 14.4N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  19/0000Z 14.4N 136.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/0000Z 14.0N 137.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13, 2020

GPM and AMSR microwave passes from a few hours ago indicate that the depression’s low-level center is displaced a little to the northeast of a mid-level center due to moderate northeasterly shear. Since Dvorak estimates are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is still 30 kt. The environment around the depression is not ideal for much strengthening. On one hand, the system is far enough south that cold waters will not be an issue. However, northeasterly shear is expected to increase a little further, and the environment appears to become more subsident within the next 2-3 days.

In addition, the global models do not show the system detaching much, if at all, from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and that does not usually bode well for much strengthening. SHIPS is the only model that indicates steady but gradual strengthening for the entire forecast period. Otherwise, the bulk of the other models, including HCCA, global models, and the IVCN intensity consensus respond to the adverse environmental conditions and show the cyclone weakening after 36-48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast still shows the depression becoming a tropical storm in the next 12 hours, but then weakens the system back to a depression in 2-3 days through the end of the 5-day period. It’s also entirely possible that the system becomes a remnant low at some point, since it may be difficult for organized deep convection to be maintained.

The depression is moving westward, or 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging should maintain a general westward motion for much of the forecast period, although the system’s forward speed is expected to slow to a crawl from 48 hours and beyond. The new track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one and generally follows the HCCA and other multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 13.7N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  14/0000Z 13.8N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  14/1200Z 13.9N 131.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  15/0000Z 13.8N 132.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  15/1200Z 13.8N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  16/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  16/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  17/1200Z 14.7N 135.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  18/1200Z 14.9N 136.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 12, 2020 

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Elida, located several hundred miles southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

  • 1. Satellite images suggest that a better-defined low-pressure area is forming about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming a little better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Aug 12, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Elida, located about 500 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

  • 1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to produce a broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 2. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • 3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form near or west of the border between the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center areas of responsibility. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward in the central Pacific basin. Future information on this system will be included in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Aug 11, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Elida, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

  • 1. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains elongated. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days. The system is not expected to move as quickly westward as originally forecast, and a slower westward to west-northwestward motion is now anticipated over the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.
  • 2. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the coast of southwest Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within the next couple of days. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward into the central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 11, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Elida, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

  • 1. Satellite imagery indicates that a poorly defined low pressure area has formed in association with the elongated area of disturbed weather located around 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days. The system is expected to move slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. An area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south- southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop from this system well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Aug 11, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Elida, located a few hundred hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

  • 1. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located around 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A low-pressure system is expected to form within this area in a day or two, and it will likely become a tropical depression late this week. The system is expected to move slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop from this system well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Aug 10, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Elida, located less than 100 miles north- northwest of Socorro Island.

  • 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure are centered about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system in a day or two, and it will likely become a tropical depression late this week. The system is expected to move slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

If this system is named, it will become Tropical Storm Fausto.

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