Tropical Storm Elida

Tropical Storm Elida Track 1400 Hours August 12 2020
Tropical Storm Elida Track 1400 Hours August 12 2020

Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed FieldTropical Storm ElidaNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12, 2020

Elida’s last remaining deep convection dissipated just after the issuance of the previous advisory, brought on by cold ocean water of only 22-23 degrees Celsius. Of the two ASCAT passes near the cyclone today, neither caught the likely area of strongest winds. Therefore, the maximum winds are lowered to 45 kt based on a blend of subjective estimates between 45-55 kt and objective numbers between 30-40 kt. Cold water and increasing shear should continue Elida’s quick weakening trend, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight, barring the unlikely chance that deep convection redevelops. The remnant low is then forecast to dissipate in 48 hours in accordance with global model guidance.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. A low- to mid-level trough extending southwest of California, which has caused a break in the subtropical ridge, is expected to allow Elida to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward soon. This forecast reasoning has not changed, however one change to the new NHC track forecast is that it is not as fast as is being shown by the model trackers. Global model fields suggest that Elida’s low- to mid-level circulation will get pulled northward by increasing shear (which is reflected by the model trackers), leaving the surface circulation to the south. Given this discrepancy, the NHC forecast is to the south of most of the guidance to account for the actual location of the surface center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 23.7N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  13/0600Z 24.5N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  13/1800Z 25.8N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  14/0600Z 27.2N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11, 2020 

Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed, especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation. A timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level center is located a little south of recent position estimates using visible satellite imagery. The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt. The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed toward significantly cooler waters. In addition, the vertical wind shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours. These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening over the next 24 to 36 hours. Elida is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep convection. The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the various consensus aids.

Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. The cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After that time, a trough located well west of southern California is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down and turn northwestward. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the previous forecast was required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 60H  14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11, 2020

Elida continued to get better organized through about 12Z, with the eye becoming better defined inside the cold overcast. Since then, the eye has become a little less distinct, suggesting that the hurricane has peaked in intensity. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 90 kt at 12Z, and based mainly on these the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west- northwestward for the next 36 h or so, and this part of the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. After that, there is spread between the NAVGEM/UK Ensemble mean/COAMPS-TC models, which show a more westward motion, and the bulk of the remaining guidance which shows a northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed due to Elida interacting with an upper-level low off of the coast of California. The new forecast follows the northwestward scenario and the various consensus models, and it has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast.

Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 24C water in 24 h and 23C in 48 h. This should lead to rapid weakening after 12 h or so. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in just over 24 h and to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h. The new forecast has the remnant low dissipating between 72-96 h, and the global models suggest this could occur earlier than currently forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 21.3N 113.8W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 60H  14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)

 

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11, 2020 

Elida’s convective pattern has become significantly better organized since the 0600Z T4.5/77-kt Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. A 10-nmi-diameter eye has become embedded within a white ring (cloud tops colder than -70C), while the upper-level outflow has expanded and become more symmetrical. In addition, earlier WindSat microwave satellite data indicated that Elida possessed a 10-nmi-wide low-level eye. Based on these data and the recent improvement in Elida’s convective and eye structure, the intensity has been increased to a conservative 80 kt.

Elida’s motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. So much for yesterday’s forecast calling for the hurricane to begin turning more westward by this time. Elida has maintained a motion of 300 degrees for the past 48 h or so, and there doesn’t appear to be any significant steering feature to change that to a westward course over the next few days. In fact, some of the global models actually turn Elida northward into a mid-level ridge after 48 hours. For now, however, the official forecast track keeps the hurricane moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, throughout the forecast period. The new track forecast lies between the previous advisory track to the south and the consensus models to the north.

Elida is likely close to reaching its peak intensity, although some additional slight strengthening is still possible this morning before the hurricane starts moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST) in about 12 h. Thereafter, SSTs steadily decrease along the path of the cyclone, dropping to below 24C by 36 hours and to near 22C by 72 hours. Thus, steady weakening is forecast after 12 hours with Elida becoming a remnant low by 48 h, followed by continued weakening until the cyclone dissipates in 96-120 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to both the previous advisory and the latest NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 20.7N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 60H  13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post TropicalWSW Baja California, Mexico)
 72H  14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Baja California, Mexico)
 96H  15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Baja California, Mexico)
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10, 2020

The last few visible images before sunset showed that while Elida had developed a faint eye, recent microwave data suggest the eyewall is open on the north and northwest sides. Nonetheless, the system is still on a strengthening trend, and the latest wind speed is set to 75 kt, close to the latest TAFB/SAB intensity estimates.

Elida continues moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for another couple of days. The biggest change to report is that most of the guidance are showing this motion continuing (instead of a westward turn) or even a more poleward trend in a few days due to a mid-latitude trough. It is uncertain how vertically deep Elida will be at that point, but there is even a low-level weakness in the model fields, suggesting that a shallower Elida would still feel that trough. Consequentially, the new NHC official forecast is shifted roughly 90 n mi to the north by day 4, with continuity preventing a larger change. The forecast is still on the southern end of the guidance envelope, so further northward adjustments could still be required overnight.

The hurricane has less than a day to further intensify before it then moves over cooler waters, which should start to weaken Elida. In a couple of days, a faster weakening is shown than the last advisory since the cyclone is more likely to cross over cooler waters more quickly than previously anticipated due to the northward track change, along with additional shear. Likewise, the post-tropical timing is also accelerated to day 3, which is consistent with the latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 20.1N 112.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 60H  13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10, 2020 

Elida is very close to reaching hurricane strength. A 1218 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed a nearly enclosed eyewall that was somewhat eroded on the west side, possibly due to a bit of north-northwesterly shear (as shown by the SHIPS diagnostics). Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, while the objective guidance from UW-CIMSS is about 5-10 kt higher. Because of the gradually improving structure in microwave imagery, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is a blend of the intensity estimates.

Located along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge which extends from the south-central U.S. southwestward into the Pacific, Elida is moving west-northwestward at 300/13 kt. Confidence in the track forecast remains high since this ridge will be the main driving force for the next 2-3 days, keeping Elida on a west-northwestward but gradually slowing trajectory. In about 3 days, a weaker Elida will turn westward and slow down even further due to lighter low-level steering winds. The spread in the guidance does increase beyond 60 hours, particularly with the GFS showing a significant poleward motion, but this unlikely scenario appears to be due to the model tracker deviating from the path of the surface circulation. The new NHC track forecast is nudged only slightly north of the previous forecast, mainly due to a continuation of Elida’s recent trajectory. This new forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the NOAA-HCCA and TVDG consensus approaches.

The SHIPS model suggests that whatever shear is still affecting Elida should die down within the next 12 hours, and the storm has about 24 hours left over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. These conditions should allow for continued strengthening over the next day or so, with rapid intensification still a possibility. For that reason, the NHC intensity forecast is just above nearly all of the guidance at 24 hours. After 24 hours, gradual weakening should commence as Elida moves over cooler waters, and the rate of weakening is likely to accelerate by day 3 once southwesterly shear increases. Elida is expected to become a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5, in accordance with the solutions shown by the global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 18.9N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  11/0000Z 19.7N 111.9W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  11/1200Z 20.5N 114.5W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  12/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  12/1200Z 22.0N 119.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 60H  13/0000Z 22.5N 121.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  13/1200Z 22.7N 122.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  14/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 10, 2020 

After the earlier burst of deep convection and the development of a small 10-nmi-wide low- to mid-level eye noted in passive microwave satellite imagery, convection has waned somewhat and the eye feature has eroded in the northwestern semicircle due to entrainment of dry air, along with some modest northwesterly vertical wind shear. A 0314Z ASCAT-A overpass revealed peak winds of only 43 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 10-15 nmi. Satellite intensity estimates range from T3.5/55 kt from TAFB to T4.0/65 kt from SAB, along with a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 53 kt and an ADT estimate of 59 kt. An average of these intensity estimates, and allowing for some undersampling by the scatterometer instrument due to Elida’s small RMW, supports maintaining an intensity of 55 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. Both the forecast track and rationale remain straight-forward and basically unchanged from the previous advisory. Elida is expected to be steered west-northwestward by a deep layer ridge to the north for the next 72 hours or, followed by a westward motion on days 4 and 5 when Elida will be weakening over much cooler waters and becoming a shallower cyclone. The latest NHC track guidance remains tightly packed and, thus, the new official forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near the TVCE and NOAA-HCCA consensus track models.

The brief intensity hiatus that Elida is experiencing is expected to be short-lived due to the cyclone’s small RMW and the vertical shear forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt in the 12-36 hour time frame. This should allow for Elida to strengthen — possibly even rapidly — during the next 24 hours, followed by a leveling off in the intensity due to the cyclone moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures (SST). By 48-60 h, SSTs less than 25C and modest southwesterly vertical wind shear will combine to induce steady weakening. By 96 h or so, Elida is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, but is a little above the consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 18.3N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  10/1800Z 19.1N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  11/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  11/1800Z 20.8N 116.2W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  12/0600Z 21.5N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 60H  12/1800Z 22.2N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  13/0600Z 22.6N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  14/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
120H  15/0600Z 21.4N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Post Tropical(WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Elida appears to be on a strengthening trend. Visible satellite images indicate that the storm’s banding features are becoming more tightly wrapped and symmetric around the center. An ASCAT pass from around 16Z showed maximum winds near 40 kt, but since the storm continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 45 kt. This intensity estimate is in agreement with the 18Z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but slightly below the latest SATCON and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

Elida is likely on its way to becoming a hurricane as the environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening during the next 36 to 48 hours. Now that the storm appears to have a well-defined inner core and outer bands, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours with some additional intensification expected until it reaches cooler waters in a couple of days. After 48 hours, cooler waters and drier air should cause a gradual decay of the system, and Elida is expected to steadily weaken and become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, near HCCA, in the short term, but ends near the middle of the guidance envelope at the longer range times.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. The track forecast appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge that stretches across northern Mexico and over a portion of the east Pacific should cause Elida to move generally west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next few days. After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast lies near the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 17.0N 106.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 60H  12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
120H  14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08, 2020

Deep convection associated with the area of disturbed weather that we have been monitoring to the south of Mexico has persisted for more than 12 hours. Directional ambiguities from an earlier ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass suggest that the system has a closed circulation, and recent satellite imagery shows that convection is increasing near the estimated center while banding features are becoming better defined.

The system has sufficient convective organization and circulation to be designated as a tropical depression, and advisories are being initiated. Based on a ship report and the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated to be near 30 kt. Upper-level outflow from the tropical cyclone is becoming better defined, and the system will be moving over warm waters and in a low-shear environment through early next week. With these conducive factors for strengthening, the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm rather soon and a hurricane within a couple of days. The official forecast is similar to the model consensus but given the anticipated environment, this may be conservative. By days 3-5, cooler waters will likely lead to weakening.

Although the center is not yet very well defined, my best estimate of initial motion is a fairly climatological 295/12 kt. The steering pattern looks quite straightforward for the next several days. A pronounced 500 mb ridge extending westward from the southwest United States over the Pacific should maintain a generally west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period. Late in the period, as the cyclone weakens, the shallower circulation should turn westward with the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is mainly a combination of the simple and corrected multi-model consensus solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 14.7N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 36H  10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 48H  11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 60H  11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
120H  14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 8, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low pressure system located more than 200 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better defined since yesterday. Thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward, remaining well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 8, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward, remaining offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Aug 7, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days while the system moves generally west-northwestward, offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

If this system forms a storm, it will be named Tropical Storm Elida.

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