Tropical Storm Fay

Tropical Storm Fay Track 2000 Hours July10 2020
Tropical Storm Fay Track 2000 Hours July10 2020

Tropical Storm Fay Radar 1700 Hours July 9 2020Tropical Storm Fay  – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11, 2020 (see Friday video below)

The system has lacked significant organized deep convection for some time now, and therefore it has degenerated into a post-tropical low-pressure system. The maximum sustained winds are estimated, perhaps generously, at 30 kt over the Atlantic waters well to the southeast of the center. Continued weakening is likely, and the cyclone should dissipate over eastern Canada by late Sunday.

The low is moving just east of due north or around 010/15 kt. Over the next day or so, the system should continue to move between a mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and a trough near the Great Lakes until it loses its identity. This is the last advisory on this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 42.4N  73.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE Surprise, NY)
 12H  11/1800Z 45.3N  72.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ENE Farnham, QB Canada)
 24H  12/0600Z 49.0N  70.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE Lac Brazzai, QB Canada)
 36H  12/1800Z 52.5N  67.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ENE Fire Lakem QB Canada)
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09, 2020

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation center of Fay is elongated northeast-southwest, with satellite and radar data showing a strong convective cluster at the northeastern end of the elongation. There have been no observations near the center during the past few hours, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fay.

Due to the elongated center and the possibility the center is trying to re-form near the convection, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 010/7. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and essentially no change to the forecast track. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high-pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast until dissipation between 60-72 h. The guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus models.

Fay is currently over the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear caused by an upper-level trough to its west and southwest. This is producing an environment that should allow a little strengthening for the next 12-24 h. After that, the storm should weaken as it passes over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, followed by landfall over the northeastern United States. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for extratropical transition between 48-60 h and dissipation shortly thereafter.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 36.3N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropicsal Storm (ENE Kill Devil Hills, NC)
 12H  10/1200Z 37.7N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropicsal Storm (ENE Wallops Island, VA)
 24H  11/0000Z 39.9N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropicsal Storm (WSW Seaside Park, NJ)
 36H  11/1200Z 43.0N  73.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Cambridge, NY)
 48H  12/0000Z 46.7N  71.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE Donnacona, QB Canada)
 60H  12/1200Z 50.2N  69.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manic Cinq, QC Canada)
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10, 2020

Fay’s circulation currently consists of a small low-level center rotating around inside of a larger circulation. Deep convection is displaced well to the north and southeast of the center as water vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay this morning found that the pressure has fallen to around 999 mb, and based on a blend of the SFMR peak winds of 45 kt and a 925-mb peak flight level wind of 65 kt, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory.

The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Little change in strength is expected before Fay’s center moves inland later today or this evening, with weakening expected after that time. While a 48-h forecast point is provided, most of the models show the vortex dissipating by that time.

The initial motion estimate is 005/10. Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies close to the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone’s center.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 38.4N  74.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, NC)
 12H  11/0000Z 39.9N  74.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Beechwood, NJ)
 24H  11/1200Z 43.2N  73.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW Sandgate, VT )
 36H  12/0000Z 47.1N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW St. Raymond QC Canada)
 48H  12/1200Z 50.7N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manic Cinq, QC Canada)
 60H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09, 2020

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation center of Fay is elongated northeast-southwest, with satellite and radar data showing a strong convective cluster at the northeastern end of the elongation. There have been no observations near the center during the past few hours, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fay.

Due to the elongated center and the possibility the center is trying to re-form near the convection, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 010/7. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and essentially no change to the forecast track. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast until dissipation between 60-72 h. The guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus models.

Fay is currently over the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear caused by an upper-level trough to its west and southwest. This is producing an environment that should allow a little strengthening for the next 12-24 h. After that, the storm should weaken as it passes over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, followed by landfall over the northeastern United States. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for extratropical transition between 48-60 h and dissipation shortly thereafter.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 36.3N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Kill Devil Hills, NC)
 12H  10/1200Z 37.7N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Chincoteague, VA)
 24H  11/0000Z 39.9N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Seaside Park, NJ)
 36H  11/1200Z 43.0N  73.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Cambridge, NY)
 48H  12/0000Z 46.7N  71.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW Donnacona, QC Canada)
 60H  12/1200Z 50.2N  69.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Manic Cinq, QC Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09, 2020 

Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer Banks today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 40 kt.

Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear. These environmental conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday. After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification. Fay should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or Saturday.

Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The 12Z dynamical model guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model fields imply. As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is indicated in the model fields.

The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southern New England.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 35.5N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nags Head, NC)
 12H  10/0600Z 37.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cobb Island, NC)
 24H  10/1800Z 39.0N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Stone Harbor, NJ)
 36H  11/0600Z 41.6N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Wingdale, NY)
 48H  11/1800Z 45.3N  72.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Stukley, QB Canada)
 60H  12/0600Z 49.1N  70.3W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Labrieville, QB Canada)
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 9, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased overnight in association with an area of low pressure located about 60 miles east of Wilmington, North Carolina. The thunderstorm activity is currently located well east and northeast of the low’s center, but only a small increase in organization or a reformation of the center closer to the thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today or tonight.

The low is expected to move northeastward or north-northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks later today and then along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight through Friday night. Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks today, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 8, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located about 60 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and portions of eastern North Carolina. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so. Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 8, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  • 1. An elongated area of low pressure is located along the coast of northeastern South Carolina. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next couple of days.

Regardless of development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 7, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located inland along the Georgia-South Carolina border southeast of Augusta, Georgia, continues to produce a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the southeastern United States. The low is expected to move slowly eastward overnight before turning east-northeastward on Wednesday.

By Wednesday night and Thursday, the system is forecast to move generally northeastward near or just offshore the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later this week if the low moves over the warm waters of the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 6, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Newfoundland.

  • 1. A low-pressure system is centered inland over southern Georgia. The low is forecast to move northeastward, near the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic during the next few days. No development is expected while the low remains over land, however some development will be possible if the system moves over water later this week. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
  • 2. A fast-moving tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance has not become any better organized today, and development is becoming unlikely. The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds on some of those islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 6, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland.

1. A small low pressure system has moved inland over the Florida panhandle. The small low is forecast to evolve into a larger low pressure system and move northeastward, near the coast of the Carolinas. Since the low is currently over land, no development is expected today or tomorrow. However, some development will be possible if the system moves back over water on Wednesday or Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 5, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.

  • 1. Recent satellite and radar observations indicate that a small low-pressure system has formed within a broader area of low pressure near the northern Gulf Coast. The low is producing a few showers near its center, and some slight development is possible before it moves inland early Monday. The broader low-pressure system is forecast to move northeastward and could emerge offshore of the Carolinas later this week, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 5, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located just north of Bermuda.

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure located along the northern Gulf Coast is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible before the disturbance moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and could emerge offshore of the Carolinas later this week, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 4, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located less than 200 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some slight development of this system is possible before the trough moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where enviromental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

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