Tropical Storm Boris

Tropical Depression Boris Track 0500 Hours June 27 2020
Tropical Depression Boris Track 0500 Hours June 27 2020

Tropical Storm Boris Wind SpeedsTropical Storm Boris – NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 500 AM HST Sat Jun 27, 2020 (see Fri video below)

Mid- and high-level clouds that had been obscuring Boris’ low-level circulation center (LLCC) have cleared, leaving it nearly completely exposed, despite a recent short-lived burst of thunderstorms in the northwest quadrant. A 0710Z ASCAT-C pass and a 1110Z VIIRS image (nighttime visible) were helpful in center- locating, adding confidence to the initial motion estimate of 270/06 kt. A blend of available analyses and intensity estimates supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt.

Boris is moving through an environment characterized by debilitating southerly wind shear, and dry low- to mid-level air, which should prevent significant convection from persisting over the LLCC. Therefore, Boris will likely degenerate into a remnant low by tomorrow, and the updated official intensity forecast offers little change, and is in line with the intensity consensus. As Boris weakens, guidance indicates it will be increasingly steered by a surface high to the distant north, with a subtle turn toward the west-southwest anticipated before dissipation occurs early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 12.3N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  28/0000Z 12.3N 141.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  28/1200Z 12.0N 143.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  29/0000Z 11.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  29/1200Z 10.8N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Fri Jun 26, 2020

There was a brief burst of deep convection over the estimated center of Boris but, overall, the system is not very well organized. The cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast which is indicative of significant shear over the cyclone. The current intensity estimate remains 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Boris will be moving through an environment of south-southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level low and associated trough near and to the west of 140W. This shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air, should cause gradual weakening and Boris will likely degenerate into a remnant low over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and similar to the latest DSHIPS and LGEM guidance.

Boris appears to have turned back toward a west-northwesterly heading and the motion estimate is 290/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn westward within the next 12 to 24 hours in response to a mid-level ridge to its north. Thereafter, the weakening low should begin to move a little south of west while embedded in the low-level trade wind flow. The official track forecast is in reasonable agreement with the latest model consensus.

Since Boris is about to cross 140W longitude, it will be moving into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s area of responsibility, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system.

Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 12.7N 139.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Jun 26, 2020

Boris is showing signs of being affected by vertical wind shear, with the strongest convection now being displaced a little to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt as a blend of subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB and the CIMSS satellite consensus. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow weakening trend, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 72 h. The new intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 12.0N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  27/0000Z 12.2N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  27/1200Z 12.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  28/0000Z 12.5N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  28/1200Z 12.4N 144.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  29/0000Z 12.1N 146.4W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  29/1200Z 11.5N 148.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25, 2020

Deep convection associated with Boris has been pulsing the past several hours, but overall there has been a general decrease in coverage and depth of the associated thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a 0525Z ASCAT-A pass. The combination of the entrainment of dry mid-level air and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow weakening trend over the next 72 hours.  The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate shortly after 72 h.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/07 kt. The forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track. Boris is expected to move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, Boris is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens even further and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official track forecast, and lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 11.6N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25, 2020 

Deep convection associated with Boris has decreased in coverage since the previous advisory, however a new band of convection has recently developed over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak current intensity (CI) number of T2.5 or 35 kt from SAB. Boris remains within an area of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, however dry mid-level air just to the north and northwest of the storm continues to be entrained into the circulation. As a result, little change in strength is anticipated over the next 12 h or so, and after that time, Boris will be moving into the drier and more stable air mass which should cause gradual weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate between 72 and 96 h.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290 at 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward, then west- southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast, and along the southern side of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 11.4N 137.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25, 2020 

Convection has increased further in association with the tropical cyclone, with the center now under a poorly-organized band or dense overcast. A just-received ASCAT-A overpass indicates that 35-kt winds are occurring over an area about 40 n mi from the center in the southeastern semicircle and based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris.

While conditions appear to be favorable for some additional strengthening for the next 12 h or so, none of the intensity guidance forecasts significant intensification during that time. Thus, the intensity forecast holds the intensity at 35 kt through 12 h. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause Boris to weaken, leading to the system degenerating to a remnant low by 60 h and dissipating completely after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward, but it still is a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/8. This motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Boris moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous forecast, and it again lies the near-consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 11.2N 137.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  26/0600Z 11.5N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  26/1800Z 11.9N 139.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  27/0600Z 12.2N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  27/1800Z 12.3N 141.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  28/0600Z 12.2N 143.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  28/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25, 2020

Convection has increased some this morning near the center of Tropical Depression 3-E, although the convective bands are poorly organized. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with scatterometer data from several hours ago.

Although the depression has not intensified since yesterday, the intensity guidance suggests that the window for strengthening is open for about another 12-24 h. So, the intensity forecast shows slight strengthening during that period. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause the system to weaken, leading to it degenerating to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipating completely after 96 h. The new intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is westward or 280/8. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 h as the system moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast and lies the near-consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 10.8N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24, 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Three-E has a small and well-defined circulation with the center just to the northeast of the main convective mass. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center and 20-25 kt winds in other parts of the circulation. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/8. There is no change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to move northwestward between 12-60 h. After that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period. There is some spread in the forward speed between the faster GFS and the slower UKMET/ECMWF, and the new official forecast compromises between them in a track that is near, but a little faster than, the consensus models.

There is also no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h. The intensity guidance for this advisory is weaker than the previous guidance, so the new intensity forecast, which is little changed, now lies near the upper end of the guidance through 72 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 10.6N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  25/0600Z 11.0N 134.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  25/1800Z 11.5N 135.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  26/0600Z 12.2N 136.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  26/1800Z 12.9N 137.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  27/0600Z 13.3N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  27/1800Z 13.4N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  29/1800Z 12.0N 149.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Jun 24, 2020 

The small low-pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has acquired enough organized convection near and southwest of the center to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression 3-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 275/6. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to move northwestward between 24-72 h. After that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period. The official track forecast is near the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening trend, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is near the upper end of the intensity guidance, with the remainder of the forecast near the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 10.2N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 60H  27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Jun 23, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A nearly stationary area of low-pressure is located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although this disturbance has a well-defined circulation, it is producing only limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to support the redevelopment of thunderstorms and the system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two before it moves over cooler waters that will inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Tropical Storm Boris Forming Map 1700 Hours June 23 2020

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression in a few days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

4. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system will be possible over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 23, 2020 

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A nearly stationary area of low pressure is located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased since yesterday, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.
  • 2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development over the next couple of days, but the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler waters after that time which should inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
  • 3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression in a few days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Jun 23, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A small area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce an area of cloudiness and showers. Although the shower activity has become a little less organized overnight, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have not become any better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive for gradual development over the next couple of days, but the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler waters after that time which should inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
  • 3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression in a few days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  • 4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Jun 22, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. An area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized during the past day. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development and this system could become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has changed little in organization since this morning, gradual development is possible and a tropical depression could form during the next two to three days. The disturbance is forecast to move westward over cooler waters later this week, which should inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 3. An area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico in a day or two. Some development is expected after that time, and the system could become a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 22, 2020 

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. An area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves generally westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low-pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, have changed little in organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next two to three days while the disturbance moves westward. After that time, cooler waters are likely to inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.
  • 3. An area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Development is expected to occur after that time, and the system could become a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jun 22, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves generally westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next two to three days while the disturbance moves westward, away from the coast of Mexico. After that time, cooler waters are likely to inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.
  • 3. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Development is expected to occur after that time, and the system could become a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

 

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Jun 21, 2020 

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while the disturbance moves generally westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the disturbance moves westward, away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
  • 3. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico by the middle of this week. Additional development is expected to occur after that time, and the system could become a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 21, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while the disturbance moves generally westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.
  • 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, are beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual additional development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of this week while the disturbance moves westward, away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
  • 3. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico by the middle of this week. Additional development is expected to occur after that time, and the system could become a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Jun 21, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system during the next few days while the disturbance moves generally westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 2. A low-pressure system is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the middle of this week while it moves westward, away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
  • 3. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico by the middle of this week. Additional development could then occur as the system moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Jun 20, 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

  • 1. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system through early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  • 2. An area of disturbed weather has developed a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible through early next week as it moves westward, away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.
  • 3. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Additional development could then occur as the system moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

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Video: Justin Cruz WX 6-26-20