Tropical Storm Cristobal

Tropical Depression Cristobal Track 1000 Hours June 8 2020
Tropical Depression Cristobal Track 1000 Hours June 8 2020

Tropical Depression Cristobal Flash Flooding RiskTropical Storm Cristobal – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 08, 2020 (see Monday video below)

Cristobal continues to move further inland. Surface observations along with radar and satellite images indicate that the center is located over northeastern Louisiana. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 995 mb, and the initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, based on several observations of 25-30 kt along and offshore of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. The depression is still producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms generally to the north and east of the center.

The depression is moving faster to the northwest than before, and the latest initial motion estimate is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn to the north by tonight and then accelerate north-northeastward late Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a trough to its west. This track should take Cristobal, and its extratropical remnants, across the Midwest and over central and eastern Canada during the next few days.

Some weakening is expected during the next day or so as Cristobal continues to track inland. However, slight re-intensification as an extratropical cyclone is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as Cristobal becomes involved with a mid-latitude system over the Upper Mississippi Valley. The combination of Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will likely cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions around the middle of the week.

This is the last NHC advisory on Cristobal. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley tonight through Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed isolated significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 32.5N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ENE Girard, LA)
 12H  09/0000Z 34.3N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Prague, AR)
 24H  09/1200Z 38.0N  91.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WNW Rolla, MO)
 36H  10/0000Z 42.4N  90.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Galena, IL)
 48H  10/1200Z 47.4N  87.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WSW Manitou Island, Canada)
 60H  11/0000Z 51.1N  84.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (ESE Ogoki, Canada)
 72H  11/1200Z 52.2N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (WNW Port Albany, Canada)
 96H  12/1200Z 51.5N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (WSW Nemiscau, Canada)
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07, 2020 

Earlier satellite, radar, and surface observations showed that the center of Cristobal made landfall in southeastern Louisiana around 2200 UTC. Since that time, the storm has turned north- northwestward with the center passing very near New Orleans. Recent Doppler radar data and surface observations suggest that the maximum winds have begun to decrease, and the advisory intensity is set to 40 kt. These winds are primarily occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters.

The initial motion estimate is 345/9 kt. Cristobal should continue north-northwestward overnight as a high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by Monday night, and then northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday. After that time, the system is expected to slow down after it completes its extratropical transition. The early portion of the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly eastward based on the more northward and eastward initial position, however the remainder of the track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and the various consensus aids.

Gradual weakening should occur overnight as the circulation continues to move over land, and Cristobal is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday morning. Additional gradual weakening is anticipated while the cyclone moves over the central U.S. through Tuesday, but some slight re-strengthening is possible due to strong baroclinic forcing during the extratropical transition around midweek. The NHC intensity forecast is primarily a blend of the global models. As the system completes its extratropical transition, strong gusty winds are possible mid week behind an associated front over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

Although Cristobal has begun weakening, tropical-storm-force winds and life-threatening storm surge is expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast overnight. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over portions of the central United States over the next couple of days.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue along portions of the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans through the overnight hours, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall across north Florida should diminish overnight. Heavy rain will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal through Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 30.3N  90.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Madisonville, LA)
 12H  08/1200Z 32.0N  91.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW Port Gibson, MS)
 24H  09/0000Z 34.6N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (Blakemore, AR)
 36H  09/1200Z 38.1N  91.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (Leesburg, MO)
 48H  10/0000Z 42.9N  89.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Stoughton, WI)
 60H  10/1200Z 47.5N  86.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Quebec Harbor, Canada)
 72H  11/0000Z 50.8N  83.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low(ENE Mammamattawa, Canada)
 96H  12/0000Z 52.8N  79.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low(WSW Pain Hill Islands, Canada)
120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 07, 2020 

At least two low-level vortices have been noted rotating cyclonically within the broad inner-core circulation, with one swirl located southeast of the advisory position approaching the Mississippi Delta and the other swirl located inland to the northwest of Grand Isle, Louisiana. The larger swirl in the southeastern quadrant will likely become the dominant low-level circulation center later tonight after that feature moves inland and frictional convergence tightens up the broad inner-core wind field a little bit. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler radar velocity data from Slidell and Mobile, along with a satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 355/06 kt due to the uncertainty in the center position. Some erratic motion will still be possible for the next 6-12 hours due to the dumb-belling motion of the multiple low-level circulations. Overall, however, the models remain in excellent agreement on Cristobal turning north-northwestward tonight and continuing that motion through 24 hours. By Monday night, a turn toward north is forecast, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching frontal system. The cyclone is expected to slow down on days 3 and 4 during extratropical transition. The new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous track forecast, and lies down the center of the the tightly packed consensus models.

No significant intensification is expected before landfall occurs late this afternoon or early evening primarily due to Cristobal’s broad wind field. However, intrusions of dry air could result in wind gusts of 55-60 kt in some of the stronger squalls. After landfall, only slow weakening is expected due to the cyclone’s large wind field. In the 60-96 hour period, some slight strengthening to gale-force strength is forecast due to strong baroclinic forcing during the extratropical transition, and a long southerly to south-southwesterly wind fetch blowing across Lake Michigan. The official intensity closely follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global models.

Cristobal remains a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, since the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall extend well away the center.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue to spread along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans this evening, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will extend well east of Cristobals center.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across north Florida into this evening, diminishing overnight. Heavy rain will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast this afternoon and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal from tonight through Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 29.1N  89.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Grand Isle, LA)
 12H  08/0600Z 30.9N  90.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Coleman Town, LA)
 24H  08/1800Z 33.4N  91.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Jerome, AR)
 36H  09/0600Z 36.7N  91.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Rover, MO)
 48H  09/1800Z 40.5N  90.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW Bardolph, IL)
 60H  10/0600Z 45.2N  88.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ENE Mountain, WI)
 72H  10/1800Z 48.7N  85.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (Cedar Lake, Canada)
 96H  11/1800Z 53.2N  81.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (WNW Akimiski Island, Canada)
120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 07, 2020 

Cristobal’s inner-core remains disorganized as multiple low-level circulations are seen rotating around the mean center used in the advisory. A large swirl just west of the alleged center has been dropping southward, and this could become a new center of circulation later today. Since the previous advisory, Cristobal’s overall appearance in satellite imagery has started to look more like a tropical cyclone with several small curved convective bands developing, especially in the eastern semicircle, along with some anticyclonic cirrus outflow noted. NOAA Doppler radar have indicated average velocities of 55-58 kt between 5000-8000 ft over the Chandeleur Sound, which equates to 45-48 kt surface winds in the northeastern quadrant. Also, an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission sampled a long fetch of 55-59 kt at 925 mb in the southeastern quadrant, which equates to 41-44 kt surface winds.

Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 45 kt for this advisory, which is consistent with satellite intensity estimates of 45 kt from both TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion is an uncertain 355/10 kt due to the uncertainty in the center position. Due to the broad inner-core wind field, there may be some erratic motion for the next 6 hours or so. Otherwise, the models remain in very good agreement in Cristobal turning north-northwestward later today. That motion is expected to continue until the 36-h period as the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer ridged parked over the southeastern U.S. and Tennessee Valley area. By 48 hours and beyond, the ridge is forecast to slide eastward, allowing Cristobal to turn toward the north on day 2, and then move northeastward on days 3 and 4. A merger with an extratropical cyclone over the Great Lakes area is expected by day 5. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models.

The continued broad structure of Cristobal and significant dry air entrainment should prevent any significant intensification before landfall, and the current intensity forecast holds the intensity constant at 45 kt through 12 h. Although the center is expected to be inland at that time, the long southerly wind fetch on the east side could keep winds to 45 kt over the Chandeleur Sound, near the coast of Mississippi and Alabama, and possibly over the inland lakes of southeastern Louisiana. Gradual weakening is forecast after landfall, with Cristobal weakening below tropical-storm strength by the 24-h time period. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and continues to show some slight re-intensification after the cyclone becomes extratropical at 72-96 hours, which is in agreement with the global model guidance.

Cristobal remains a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, since the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall extend well away the center.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
  • 2. Tropical storm force winds should spread along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans today, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across north Florida this morning, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal from Sunday night into Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 28.7N  90.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Grand Isle, LA)
 12H  08/0000Z 30.2N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Lake Maurepas, LA)
 24H  08/1200Z 32.6N  91.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Epps, LA)
 36H  09/0000Z 35.2N  92.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ENE Enola, AR)
 48H  09/1200Z 38.9N  91.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW Mineola, MO)
 60H  10/0000Z 43.5N  89.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Portage, WI)
 72H  10/1200Z 47.8N  87.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Marathon, Canada)
 96H  11/1200Z 52.6N  83.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Akimiski Island, Canada)
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06, 2020 

Cristobal has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm continues to exhibit more of a subtropical appearance in satellite images with a broad wind field and a limited amount of deep convection near the center. The most intense convection has been in a squall line that is well east of the center near or over portions of the Florida peninsula. Data from both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters support holding the initial wind speed at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Cristobal recently passed very near NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico, which was helpful in assessing the storm’s minimum pressure.

Cristobal is moving northward at about 10 kt between a deep-layer ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should continue for about another day, taking the center of the storm across the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. After the storm makes landfall, a slight turn to the northwest is expected on Monday in response to a mid-level ridge shifting eastward across the southeast U.S. The track models are in very good agreement and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast.

Cristobal has about another 18-24 hours over water in which it could strengthen. However, given its broad structure, lack of deep convection near the center, and dry air that is wrapping into the west and south sides of the circulation, only a little strengthening is predicted. After the storm makes landfall, steady weakening is forecast and the cyclone should weaken to a tropical depression by late Monday.

Cristobal is a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin overnight along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall will continue from central to north Florida overnight, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana on Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains into Tuesday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller rivers, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf coast through the Mississippi River Valley.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 26.2N  90.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
 12H  07/1200Z 27.6N  90.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
 24H  08/0000Z 29.5N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Ashland, LA)
 36H  08/1200Z 31.8N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Harrisonburg, LA)
 48H  09/0000Z 34.5N  92.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Lonsdale, AR)
 60H  09/1200Z 38.3N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW West Aurora, MO)
 72H  10/0000Z 43.0N  91.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Bridgeport, WI)
 96H  11/0000Z 50.5N  86.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WNW Grant, Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 06, 2020 

Cristobal’s satellite presentation continues to lack the appearance of a classic tropical cyclone, with a large curved band over the northern semicircle and little deep convection near the center. The latest flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft support a current intensity of 45 kt. Based on the poorly-organized state of the system, some dry air entrainment, and interaction with an upper-level low, only some slow strengthening is forecast, as in the previous advisories. The NHC intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the model consensus.

The storm is moving northward at a slightly slower 10 kt. There has not been much change in the track forecast or forecast reasoning. Cristobal should continue northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge until tomorrow evening, bringing the center to the northern Gulf coast in about 36 hours. Later, a turn to the north-northwest, and then back to the north is forecast as the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge and a trough approaching the central United States. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical system should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of the trough and move into Canada.

Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast path as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well to the east of the center.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
  • 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley.
  • 4. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Additional rainfall from Cristobal will continue to slowly subside, however, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will still be possible through today. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 24.2N  90.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Progreso, MX)
 12H  07/0000Z 25.6N  90.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
 24H  07/1200Z 27.4N  90.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
 36H  08/0000Z 29.3N  90.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Cocodrie, LA)
 48H  08/1200Z 31.5N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Depression (WSW Cloverdale, MO)
 60H  09/0000Z 34.5N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Benton, AR)
 72H  09/1200Z 38.0N  92.3W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WNW Cocker, MO)
 96H  10/1200Z 47.5N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WNW Caribou Island, Canada)
120H  11/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05, 2020 

The center of the tropical cyclone has moved into the Gulf of Mexico to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Earlier scatterometer and surface synoptic data indicated that the system had already re-strengthened into a tropical storm. The system has been exhibiting fairly well-defined convective banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. However, the central convection is minimal at this time and upper-level outflow is being restricted over the southwestern quadrant due to a trough over the Bay of Campeche. The current intensity is kept at 35 kt in agreement with the earlier observations. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, which should provide a good estimate of Cristobal’s strength. Although the cyclone will be traversing fairly warm waters during the next couple of days, dry mid-level air and some southwesterly shear is expected to limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous ones and close to the model consensus.

Cristobal has moved a little faster over the past several hours, and the current motion is estimated to be northward at 11 kt. For the next couple of days, the cyclone should continue to move generally northward through a weakness between subtropical high-pressure areas. A bend toward the north-northwest is forecast just after landfall on the northern Gulf Coast due to the slight building of a ridge to the northeast of Cristobal.

The size of the wind field and timing of the new track forecast require the issuance of storm surge and tropical storm warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast at this time.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.
  • 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend and in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.
  • 3. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Saturday night along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.
  • 4. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 23.8N  90.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Progreso, MX)
 12H  06/1800Z 25.0N  90.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Progreso, MX)
 24H  07/0600Z 26.8N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cocodrie, LA)
 36H  07/1800Z 28.8N  90.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cocodrie, LA)
 48H  08/0600Z 30.6N  91.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Alfords, LA)
 60H  08/1800Z 33.2N  92.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW Crossett, AR)
 72H  09/0600Z 36.4N  92.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ENE Midway, AR)
 96H  10/0600Z 45.0N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (ESE Mattoon, WI)
120H  11/0600Z 52.5N  83.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Attawapiskat, Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05, 2020 

Although the center of circulation is still over land, the system is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images. A large convective band has become better defined over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. However, central convective features are still lacking. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt based on surface synoptic observations. Re-intensification should begin later today, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cristobal this evening as the center moves back over water.

Additional intensification is anticipated through early Sunday, however this should be limited due to dry mid-level air and some shear. The official intensity forecast is about the same as in previous advisories and is near or above the latest intensity model consensus. The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the north, or about 360/10 kt. For the next couple of days Cristobal should move mainly northward through a weakness between subtropical anticyclones. A gradual bend toward the north-northwest is likely after the center reaches the northern Gulf coast due to some building of a ridge to the northeast. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.

Regardless of its exact track and forward speed, Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. The strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed to the east of the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.
  • 2. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Florida Big Bend, in portions of southeastern Louisiana, and along the Mississippi coast within the next 48 hours, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for these areas. Residents in these locations should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.
  • 3. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force winds beginning Sunday morning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.
  • 4. Heavy rainfall will spread onto portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding and rapid rises on smaller streams and rivers possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 21.4N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Progreso, MX)
 12H  06/0600Z 22.9N  90.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Progreso, MX)
 24H  06/1800Z 24.9N  90.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Progreso, MX)
 36H  07/0600Z 26.7N  90.1W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Port Fourchon, LA)
 48H  07/1800Z 28.5N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Port Fourchon, LA)
 60H  08/0600Z 30.4N  91.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (S Baton Rouge, LA)
 72H  08/1800Z 32.8N  92.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Haile, LA)
 96H  09/1800Z 39.5N  91.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Atlas, IL)
120H  10/1800Z 50.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (Savoff, Ontario, Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04, 2020 

Cristobal is not very well organized at the moment as the center of the circulation remains inland over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. Satellite images and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms lack banding features and the center is becoming less distinct. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but these winds are likely occurring over water well to the north and east of the center.

The depression is moving slowly to the east as it nears the completion of a cyclonic loop around the Central American gyre that it has been embedded within. The models show the depression turning northward soon on the west side of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This should take Cristobal back over the southern Gulf of Mexico waters by Friday night, and across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. A fairly progressive ridge moving across the central U.S. could cause Cristobal to turn to the left slightly as it moves across the Gulf Coast late this weekend and early next week. There remains a fair amount of spread in the model solutions, with the GFS being the fastest and farthest east and the ECMWF much slower and to the west. The NHC track forecast is between those scenarios and lies near the various consensus aids, which typically have the lowest errors.

Cristobal is forecast to remain inland for another 12 to 24 hours, so little change in strength is anticipated during that time. After the system moves back over water, gradual strengthening seems likely until Cristobal reaches the northern Gulf coast. The intensification rate should be slow since Cristobal is a large system and will be moving into an environment of moderate wind shear and some dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update from earlier and lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Given the expected environmental conditions, the strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed from the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone. For more information on the potential impacts, see the Key Messages below.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.
  • 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center. Storm surge and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for a portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Friday.
  • 3. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 17.8N  90.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Nuevo Coahuila, MX)
 12H  05/1200Z 19.1N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Yohaltún, MX)
 24H  06/0000Z 20.9N  90.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW Bella Flor, MX)
 36H  06/1200Z 22.5N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
 48H  07/0000Z 24.3N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
 60H  07/1200Z 26.3N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
 72H  08/0000Z 28.3N  90.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
 96H  09/0000Z 32.6N  92.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW Vienna, LA)
120H  10/0000Z 37.3N  90.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Depression (WSW Vulcan LA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04, 2020

With the center remaining inland, Cristobal has continued to weaken, and the cloud pattern is becoming disorganized. The current intensity is reduced to 30 kt for this advisory, and the warnings for the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico have been discontinued. Assuming that the center will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours, re-intensification should begin by tomorrow evening. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to be very conducive for intensification, with moderate southwesterly shear and some dry mid-level air. Not surprisingly, the intensity guidance, such as HWRF and LGEM, is not very bullish on strengthening. The official forecast remains a little above the latest intensity model consensus. It should still be noted, however, that there is some uncertainty as to the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast due to the limitations of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change.

The cyclone continues to move slowly east-southeastward, or 120/3 kt. Over the next day or so, Cristobal is likely to move along a partial cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre. By tomorrow night, the system should have begun moving northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This generally northward motion should continue until the center crosses the northern Gulf coast. There have been no important changes to the NHC track forecast, which is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus aids.

The global models indicate that Cristobal’s wind field will expand as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii has again been increased primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed, the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the center.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.
  • 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 17.6N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Nuevo Coahuila, MX)
 12H  05/0000Z 17.7N  90.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (ESE Nuevo Coahuila, MX)
 24H  05/1200Z 19.0N  90.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WNW Yohaltún, MX)
 36H  06/0000Z 21.0N  90.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Celestún, MX)
 48H  06/1200Z 22.9N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
 60H  07/0000Z 24.7N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
 72H  07/1200Z 26.7N  90.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
 96H  08/1200Z 30.8N  91.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Lecour, LA)
120H  09/1200Z 35.0N  91.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Des Arc, LA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03, 2020 

Geostationary satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, indicate that Cristobal has moved very little since the previous advisory and that the convective structure of the cyclone remains fairly well-organized with several bands wrapping around the circulation. The center is still located just south of Ciudad del Carmen, and the observing site at that location reported a pressure of around 995 mb earlier this evening. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, assuming some reduction in wind speed has taken place. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the next day or so while the center moves slowly inland over eastern Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Friday and some re-intensification is forecast to occur. After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast, but the overall environment is not expected to be particularly conducive for intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous advisory, and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.

Although Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past several hours, a slow southeastward or eastward motion should commence overnight. Increasing southerly flow around a strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to begin moving northward on Friday, and a northward or north-northwestward motion should continue through Saturday with Cristobal approaching the northern Gulf coast by later in the weekend. The new NHC track forecast is again very similar to the previous NHC advisory and is close to the various consensus models.

The global models indicate that Cristobal’s wind field will expand as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have been increased primarily over the eastern semicircle at 48 through 72 hours.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
  • 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday morning, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.
  • 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 18.3N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE El Playaso, MX)
 12H  04/1200Z 18.0N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW El Cocoytal, MX)
 24H  05/0000Z 18.4N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW Don Samuel, MX)
 36H  05/1200Z 19.7N  90.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Depression (WSW China, MX)
 48H  06/0000Z 21.3N  90.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Sisal, MX)
 60H  06/1200Z 23.1N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
 72H  07/0000Z 24.9N  90.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
 96H  08/0000Z 28.8N  91.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Marsh Island, LA)
120H  09/0000Z 32.5N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Choudrant, LA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03, 2020

Cristobal continues to move over land and is passing a short distance south of Ciudad del Carmen, where tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts, have been reported. The current intensity estimate assumes only a very slow weakening rate and maximum winds are set at 45 kt for this advisory. Since the system has a large circulation, the weakening should continue to be at a slow rate and the cyclone is expected to become a tropical depression by late Thursday.

Once the center re-emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to happen on Friday, re-intensification should begin. However, the model guidance currently suggests that the atmospheric environment over the Gulf will not be very conducive for strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the high end of the guidance suite. As has been noted, however, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong Cristobal will be when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. This is due to the limitations of predicting tropical cyclone intensity change.

The storm continues to move southeastward quite slowly, or 135/3 kt. Cristobal should move in a partial cyclonic loop, and remain over land, while embedded within a broad gyre over Central America and eastern Mexico. Later in the forecast period, an increase in southerly flow is likely to cause the system to move back over water and approach the northern Gulf coast this weekend. The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus TVCA.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
  • 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.
  • 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 18.3N  91.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE El Playaso, MX)
 12H  04/0600Z 18.0N  91.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE La Fortunata, MX)
 24H  04/1800Z 18.3N  91.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Don Samuel, MX)
 36H  05/0600Z 19.0N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - (WNW Yuek, MX)
 48H  05/1800Z 20.3N  90.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - (WNW Nitun, MX
 60H  06/0600Z 22.0N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
 72H  06/1800Z 24.0N  90.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
 96H  07/1800Z 28.0N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
120H  08/1800Z 31.7N  92.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Zenoria, LA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and imagery from the Sabancuy radar in Mexico indicate that the center of Cristobal made landfall in the state of Campeche just to the west of Ciudad del Carmen around 1330 UTC. Data from the aircraft and earlier surface reports indicate that the landfall intensity was about 50 kt. Now that the center of circulation has moved inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. However, the large circulation will take some time to spin down. It is anticipated that Cristobal will weaken to a depression by tomorrow evening. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico so some re-strengthening is predicted. However, the global models show increased southwesterly shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this should limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. However, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend.

The storm has been moving slowly south-southeastward, or 150/3 kt. Over the next couple of days, Cristobal should move slowly in a cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre over Central America and eastern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should turn northward into a weakness in the mid-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
  • 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.
  • 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 18.6N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atasta, MX)
 12H  04/0000Z 18.4N  91.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Chacah, MX)
 24H  04/1200Z 18.1N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE El Chaleco, MX)
 36H  05/0000Z 18.9N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - (ENE Oxcabal, MX)
 48H  05/1200Z 20.0N  90.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - (ENE Campeche, MX)
 60H  06/0000Z 21.5N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Sisal, MX)
 72H  06/1200Z 23.5N  90.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
 96H  07/1200Z 27.6N  90.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
120H  08/1200Z 31.0N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Long Bridge, LA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03, 2020 – 

Cristobal has continued to get better organized this morning with the development of a small CDO feature over the low-level center, with cloud tops of -82C to -86C developing very near the center. Radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, also has shown an improvement in the central convective features, along with an increase in convective banding on the west side of the circulation, which previously had been devoid of any significant convection. Reports from nearby Mexican observations indicate that winds of 47-48 kt exist west of the center, which supports an intensity of 50 kt. The same observations support a minimum pressure of 994 mb.

The aforementioned surface observation data and radar imagery indicate that Cristobal is now moving southeastward or 140/03 kt. There could be some erratic motion this morning due to land interaction with the inner-core wind field, but the general motion should remain southeastward toward the coast of Mexico. By this afternoon, a turn toward the east is expected, driving the cyclone inland over southeastern Mexico where it could meander for the next day or two. By 48 hours, the global and regional models are in good agreement on the development of a long fetch of southerly flow on the east side of Cristobal between the cyclone’s center and a ridge over the Bahamas and Hispaniola, which will act to lift the tropical storm slowly northward toward the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours and beyond, mid-latitude ridging amplifies over the southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas, which will increase the southerly steering flow, causing Cristobal to accelerate northward on day 4 over the central Gulf, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on day 5 near the south-central U.S. Gulf coast. The models are in very good agreement on this overall developing scenario, with only timing differences on when and how fast the cyclone will lift out away from Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN and NOAA-HCCA.

Some additional slight strengthening remains possible this morning before Cristobal moves inland over southeastern Mexico. Weakening is likely this afternoon and tonight while the circulation after landfall. The intensity forecast leans heavily on just how far inland Cristobal moves. For now, the cyclone is expected to remain relatively close to the warm Gulf waters, which should temper the rate of weakening typically experienced by inland tropical cyclones. But if Cristobal moves as far inland as Guatemala like the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting, the cyclone would be considerably weaker and the wind field more expansive on days 3-5. The official intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
  • 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 18.9N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW El Playaso, MX)
 12H  03/1800Z 18.5N  91.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW El Playaso, MX)
 24H  04/0600Z 18.3N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Chacah, MX)
 36H  04/1800Z 18.5N  91.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - (WSW Mamantel, MX)
 48H  05/0600Z 19.3N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - (WSW Chenkán, MX)
 60H  05/1800Z 20.5N  90.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nitun, MX)
 72H  06/0600Z 22.2N  90.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
 96H  07/0600Z 26.3N  90.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
120H  08/0600Z 29.8N  91.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Baldwin, LA)

National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02, 2020

Cristobal has become a little better organized this evening. There has there has been an increase in convective banding near and to the east of the center in both satellite and radar imagery. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that investigated the storm this evening found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and peak SFMR winds of 45-47 kt. An automated Mexican weather station on an elevated offshore platform has measured slightly stronger winds than the SFMR, but a blend of these data support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 996 mb on its final pass through the center.

Recent aircraft and satellite fixes show that Cristobal has been meandering for much of the day, with perhaps a south or southeast drift evident. The storm is expected to move slowly southward or southeastward as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center onshore over the southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on Wednesday. After landfall, Cristobal is forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the east or southeast through early Thursday. After that time, increasing southerly flow should allow the storm to begin moving northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. There has been a slight eastward adjustment in the early portion of the track forecast due to a slightly more eastward initial position, but after 36 h very little change to the previous forecast was required. The new NHC track forecast is again near the various consensus aids and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Although there is less spread in the track guidance this cycle, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at 72 h and beyond due to the expected land interaction within the next day or so, and a potential for center reformations as the system re-organizes in 2-3 days.

Some additional strengthening is possible overnight before Cristobal reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is likely on Wednesday and Wednesday night while the circulation encounters land. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, environmental conditions are expected to support re-intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF model and is a bit less aggressive than the statistical guidance or the HFIP-corrected consensus model since there is uncertainly regarding structure of the system after it interacts with land.

Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological service for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 19.1N  92.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 12H  03/1200Z 18.7N  92.1W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 24H  04/0000Z 18.4N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 36H  04/1200Z 18.3N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - (ESE Chacah, MX)
 48H  05/0000Z 18.8N  91.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - (WNW Sabancuy, MX)
 60H  05/1200Z 19.6N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Siho Playa, MX)
 72H  06/0000Z 21.2N  91.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Sisal, MX)
 96H  07/0000Z 25.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Merida, MX)
120H  08/0000Z 29.0N  91.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Marsh Island, LA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02, 2020

Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the cyclone was named. Since that time, scatterometer data suggested that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a little above the subjective Dvorak estimates. Some strengthening could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive atmospheric and oceanic environment. However, it now seems likely that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday which should cause weakening. Assuming that the center emerges over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is forecast. However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should limit the increase in strength. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance.

Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt. The system appears to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern Mexico. The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for the next few days. However, the slow, cyclonically looping movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, increasing southerly flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. The official track forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Given the spread in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the NHC forecast at days 4-5.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological service for more information.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
  • 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 19.1N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 12H  03/0600Z 18.8N  92.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 24H  03/1800Z 18.4N  92.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 36H  04/0600Z 18.2N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - (WNW La Fortunata, MX)
 48H  04/1800Z 18.5N  91.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - (WNW Chacah, MX)
 60H  05/0600Z 19.1N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Sabancuy, MX)
 72H  05/1800Z 20.4N  91.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (NWN Nitun, MX)
 96H  06/1800Z 23.7N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Progreso, MX)
120H  07/1800Z 28.0N  91.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Bayou Vista, LA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02, 2020

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the depression and has found that the system is very close to tropical storm strength. Based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at 30 kt for now. Since the cyclone is over very warm waters with fairly low vertical shear, intensification to a tropical storm should occur today. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. The intensity forecast later in the period is dependent on how much shear the system will encounter over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this is somewhat uncertain. For now, the intensity forecast will remain conservative.

The initial motion estimate is slowly westward, or 270/3 kt. The cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents over the Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days, with the system moving slowly within a broader gyre over eastern Mexico. Global models show the cyclone being trapped between two mid-level anticyclones until later in the week, when some increase in southerly flow should begin to carry the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline. The official track forecast closely follows the dynamical model consensus.

At this time, both the track and intensity forecasts are of low confidence. However, for the next couple of days, the main threat from this slow-moving cyclone is from widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America.

Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 19.5N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Progreso, MX)
 12H  03/0000Z 19.5N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 24H  03/1200Z 19.0N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 36H  04/0000Z 18.8N  92.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 48H  04/1200Z 18.8N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 60H  05/0000Z 18.9N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Isla del Carmen, MX)
 72H  05/1200Z 19.8N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (wnw Seybaplaya, MX)
 96H  06/1200Z 22.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Celestún, MX)
120H  07/1200Z 26.0N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW New Orleans, LA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02, 2020 

Satellite data, Mexican radar data from Sabancuy, and nearby surface observations indicate that the depression has become a little better organized and has strengthened slightly since the previous advisory. Radar data indicate a mass of convection has developed north of and over the low-level center, and a broken curved band has also formed in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt based on a 0201 UTC ASCAT-A overpass that showed a couple of 27-kt vectors located in the northeastern quadrant outside of the most active convection. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression later this morning.

The initial motion is westward or 270/02 kt. The latest 00Z model guidance continues to show the depression remaining embedded within the larger Central American gyre for the next few days, with the gyre gradually contracting around the depression, with the two entities merging into one system by 72 hours. Similar to last night, tonight’s model runs have again abandoned the development of a secondary low east of the depression and moving it northward toward the U. S Gulf coast. This may be due in part to the lack of Mexican and Central American upper-air data at 0000 UTC, except for the Belize sounding. But the global and regional models are in overall in good agreement on the cyclone remaining trapped in a break in the subtropical ridge to the east and west of the depression.

By 72-96 hours, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to drop southward out of the southern plains and into into the ridge weakness and act as a catalyst to nudge the depression slowly northward on days 4 and 5. Until that time, the cyclone is expected to meander over the the Bay of Campeche for the next 2-3 days, possibly making landfall along the coast of extreme southeastern Mexico and the west coast of Yucatan.

The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and brings the center close to the coast of Mexico on days 2 and 3. It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3 due to land interaction and the possible formation of a secondary cyclone.

Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low while the cyclone remains trapped in the Bay of Campeche during the next few days, only slow strengthening is expected due to possible land interaction and intrusions of dry air caused by southwesterly downslope flow coming off of the mountains in the state of Chiapas, which already appears to be underway based on satellite and radar imagery. After the cyclone starts moving northward, increasing southerly shear is expected to inhibit any significant or rapid strengthening. An alternative intensity forecast scenario is that the cyclone moves far enough inland over Mexico to dissipate completely in less than 5 days as forecast by the GFS and HWRF models.

Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and intensity forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America.

Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 19.6N  92.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (NWN Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 12H  02/1800Z 19.5N  92.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Frontera, MX)
 24H  03/0600Z 19.1N  92.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Chiltepec, MX)
 36H  03/1800Z 18.8N  92.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Frontera, MX)
 48H  04/0600Z 18.7N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Chiltepec, MX)
 60H  04/1800Z 19.0N  92.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 72H  05/0600Z 19.3N  92.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Ciudad del Carme, MX)
 96H  06/0600Z 20.7N  91.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Celestún, MX)
120H  07/0600Z 23.5N  91.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mérida, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01, 2020

Satellite imagery, along with radar and surface data from Mexico, indicate that the depression has changed little in organization or strength since the previous advisory. There are a couple of small clusters of convection near the center, while the more concentrated convection is occurring in ragged bands well removed from the center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the surface data and continuity from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is now westward or 270/6. The evolution of this system during the next several days remains quite uncertain. The Canadian and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to make a slow counter-clockwise loop inside a larger gyre over Central America during the next 2-3 days, with the center moving near the coast of the Bay of Campeche. This would be followed by a more northward motion with some increase in forward speed as a mid-/upper-level trough develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the depression turning southward and making landfall over the coast of Mexico in the next 24-36 h, followed by dissipation. These two models subsequently develop a second low pressure area northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at around 120 h due to the interaction of the aforementioned gyre and trough. The new forecast track follows the previous forecast in showing TD-3 as being the system that moves northward across the Gulf. However, the new track brings the center closer to the coast of Mexico and is slower to move it northward than in the previous advisory. It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3.

In the current track forecast scenario, slow strengthening should occur during the next 24-48 h while the cyclone moves over the warm water of the Bay of Campeche in an environment of light to moderate shear. After time, proximity to the Mexican coast should limit strengthening, and it is possible that the current forecast intensities could be generous. The more northward motion near the end of the forecast period is likely to be accompanied by an increase in southerly shear, so only modest intensification is forecast during that time. Overall, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast. An alternative intensity forecast scenario is that the cyclone moves far enough inland over Mexico to dissipate completely in less than 5 days as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF.

Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and intensity forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
  • 3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 19.6N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Siho Playa, MX)
 12H  02/1200Z 19.6N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 24H  03/0000Z 19.2N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 36H  03/1200Z 18.8N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Frontera, Mx)
 48H  04/0000Z 18.6N  93.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Chiltepec, MX)
 60H  04/1200Z 18.5N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Paraíso, MX)
 72H  05/0000Z 18.5N  93.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Paraíso, MX)
 96H  06/0000Z 19.5N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Frontera, MX)
120H  07/0000Z 22.0N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Sisal, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01, 2020 

Recent satellite data and surface observations from Mexico show that the circulation associated with the area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan peninsula has become better defined during the past several hours, and that the center has moved over the eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche. Although the deep convection has waned somewhat, there is evidence of banding in both visible satellite imagery and recent radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico. Based on these data, advisories are being issued on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data.

The depression will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of Campeche and upper-level winds are forecast to be generally conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days. The NHC forecast is in line with much of the intensity guidance and calls for the system to become a tropical storm in 12 to 24 hours, with some additional strengthening predicted through 48 hours while the system remains over the southern Bay of Campeche. After that time, the system’s intensity will depend on how much it interacts with land. Although the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models take the cyclone inland over southern Mexico, the NHC forecast keeps it just offshore and shows the cyclone maintaining tropical storm strength. Later in the period, the guidance suggests that the system could strengthen over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, but the latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low confidence.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 290/6 kt. The system has been moving cyclonically around a larger gyre over Central America during the past couple of days, and while it remains embedded within the gyre it is forecast to turn west-southwestward, and then southward at a slower forward speed over the next couple of days. On this track, the cyclone is expected to move near the southern Bay of Campeche coast during the next day or two, and confidence it that portion of the track forecast is high.

After that time, two distinct scenarios emerges. The first is that the cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario. In this scenario, both models show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre. The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The NHC forecast favors the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs later this week. The latter portion of both the track and intensity forecast are of quite low confidence.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 19.6N  91.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Siho Playa, MX)
 12H  02/0600Z 19.8N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 24H  02/1800Z 19.5N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Nuevo Progreso, MX)
 36H  03/0600Z 19.2N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Frontera, MX)
 48H  03/1800Z 18.8N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Chiltepec, MX)
 60H  04/0600Z 18.8N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Paraíso, MX)
 72H  04/1800Z 18.8N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Paraíso, MX)
 96H  05/1800Z 19.0N  92.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Frontera, MX)
120H  06/1800Z 23.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Sisal, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 1, 2020 

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized. The disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday.

The system is then forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. Interests along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this disturbance as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for a portion of this area later today or tonight.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 1, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather, associated with the remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, is located over the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. This disturbance is forecast to move northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support development, and a new tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so.

The system is then forecast to drift west or west-southwest over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. Interests along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 750 PM EDT Sun May 31, 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently located over northern Guatemala. This system is forecast to move northwestward to northward within a broader area of disturbed weather, and it could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new tropical depression could form while the system moves little through the middle of this week.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service. The next update on this system will be in the first regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, which will be issued by 2 AM EDT Monday morning.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.  * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

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