Tropical Storm Rebekah

Post-tropical Storm Rebekah Track 0500 Hours November 1, 2019
Post-tropical Storm Rebekah Track 0500 Hours November 1, 2019

Subtropical Storm Rebekah Satellite 1700 Hours October 30, 2019Tropical Storm Rebekah – (see new video below) NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Fri Nov 01, 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that Rebekah has degenerated to a remnant low as the circulation remains void of deep convection. In addition, the system is starting to merge with a weak frontal system over the northeastern Atlantic. Re-development of deep convection appears unlikely, and the remnants of Rebekah are expected to weaken to a trough between 12-24 h.

The initial motion is 095/17, and a slightly faster eastward motion is expected until the system dissipates.

This is the last advisory issued on Rebekah by the National Hurricane Center.Tropical Force Wind Field 0500 Hours November 1 2019

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 40.6N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ENE Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 12H  01/1800Z 40.2N  24.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 24H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 31, 2019

Rebekah’s cloud pattern consists of a tight swirl of low clouds, but most of the deep convection vanished a few hours ago. A recent ASCAT pass still shows a well-defined circulation with winds of 35 kt. Consequently, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt in this advisory. Assuming that the convection, as anticipated does not return, Rebekah will become post-tropical cyclone soon and will likely dissipate in 24 hours or sooner. The cyclone is forecast to move eastward with the mid-latitude flow and as indicated by track models.

Hazard Information for the Azores can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 40.8N  31.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 12H  01/1200Z 40.5N  27.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Angra do Heroísmo, Azores)
 24H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Thu Oct 31, 2019

Rebekah continues to have a small band of moderate-to-deep convection around the center, although the overall cloud pattern is becoming stretched from northeast to southwest. The initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt. All of the models keep stretching Rebekah out overnight and show it degenerating into a trough within 24 h while it moves eastward. A convergent environment and the cyclone’s movement over cool waters are expected to offset any cooling aloft which would promote convection.

Since Rebekah is not expected to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone near the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 41.1N  33.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 12H  01/0600Z 41.2N  29.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 24H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019

The storm has lost organization since yesterday with only a skeletal curved band west and north of the center. However, ASCAT just came in with 35-40 kt winds, so the initial wind speed will stay 40 kt. Weakening is anticipated today as the low moves over cool waters and into a convergent environment aloft. All of the guidance shows any remaining convection dissipating by this evening, so the storm will likely be in the graveyard in about 12 h. A general eastward track is forecast until Rebekah decomposes into a trough sometime tomorrow, at best becoming a wave along an approaching cold front.

Since Rebekah is not expected to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone near the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 40.7N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 12H  01/0000Z 41.1N  32.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 24H  01/1200Z 41.0N  27.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Angra do Heroísmo, Azores)
 36H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Thu Oct 31, 2019

Rebekah’s cloud pattern has eroded significantly since the previous advisory and only a narrow band of fragmented convection remains in the northeastern quadrant. There are no signs of any upper-level anticyclonic outflow, so the cyclone will retain subtropical status. Earlier ASCAT-A/B/C overpasses indicated several 38-39 kt surface wind vectors in the southern semicircle and given that Rebekah is now moving at a faster forward speed, the intensity remains at 40 kt despite the degraded convective pattern.

The initial motion estimate is 065/18 kt. Rebekah is forecast to move east-northeastward to eastward around the southeastern periphery of a larger non-tropical low-pressure system for the next day or two before dissipating by 48 hours. The model guidance has shifted northward significantly and the official forecast has been moved in that direction as well, but not as far north nor as fast as the model consensus, lying closer to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions.

Rebekah will be moving over cooler waters that are less than 20 deg C and into a stronger vertical wind shear regime by 12 h and beyond. This combination of unfavorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to steady weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone in 24 h or less, with dissipation expected by 48 h. Although the center of Rebekah is expected to pass north of the Azores, those islands could still receive gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, especially on the southward-facing slopes of elevated terrain.

Since Rebekah is not expected to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone when it nears the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 39.7N  36.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Subtropical (WSW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 12H  31/1800Z 40.6N  33.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Subtropical (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 24H  01/0600Z 40.6N  29.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (ENE Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 36H  01/1800Z 40.3N  25.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Nordeste, Azores)
 48H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Wed Oct 30, 2019

Cloudiness and showers associated with a small low-pressure system embedded within a larger non-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic has become better organized during the day. The cyclone has a broken convective band that wraps about halfway around its eastern semicircle, with a small area of central convection near its center. The cloud tops within the convection are not particularly cold and the system is co-located with a large upper-level low, so it is initially designated as a subtropical cyclone. The intensity is assessed as 40 kt based primarily on earlier ASCAT data. It is worth mentioning that the system also has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, since the radius of maximum winds, is not very large and the system has some moderate central convection.

Much like Pablo just a few days ago, Rebekah is currently rotating around a larger non-tropical low-pressure system. The initial motion estimate is 080/11 kt, but an east-northeastward motion is expected later tonight. The track model spread is larger than normal and confidence in the track forecast is low, though most of the models generally show Rebekah turning back toward the east by early Friday, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast until it dissipates later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rebekah is forecast to approach the western-most Azores early Friday as a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone.

The intensity guidance unanimously forecasts that Rebekah will change little in strength during the next 24 h, though given the small size of the cyclone, some short-term fluctuations are possible tonight. Most of the dynamical models then forecast that Rebekah’s convection will decrease substantially by early Friday, likely due to a combination of colder SSTs and unfavorable upper-level winds. The cyclone is therefore forecast to become post-tropical around that time, and gradual weakening is expected. Rebekah will likely dissipate by the weekend, if not sooner.

Since Rebekah is not currently forecast to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone when it nears the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 38.3N  40.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 12H  31/0600Z 39.0N  38.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 24H  31/1800Z 39.9N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 36H  01/0600Z 39.8N  31.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores
 48H  01/1800Z 38.9N  26.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Praia da Vitória, Azores)
 72H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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Video: Subtropical Storm Rebekah forms

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