Tropical Storm Pablo

Tropical Storm Pablo Track 0500 Hours October 27 2019
Tropical Storm Pablo Track 0500 Hours October 27 2019

Tropical Storm Pablo Satellite 1700 Hours October 25 2019Tropical Storm Pablo – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27, 2019

Microwave satellite imagery  (see new video below) indicates that Pablo has maintained a small mid-level eye feature for at least the past 18 hours, and the eye has also been evident in infrared imagery for the past 6 hours. The most recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimate was T3.0, which was held down due to constraints even though the eye pattern supports an intensity of 65 kt. The latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT and SATCON intensity estimates are T4.4/75 kt and 64 kt, respectively. Based on a blend of the TAFB and UW-CIMSS values, along with the 5- to 8-nmi-diameter eye, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt, which could be conservative due to the cyclone’s relatively fast forward speed.Tropical Storm Pablo Wind Speed Probability 0200 Hours October 27 2019

Pablo has continued to accelerate and the initial motion estimate is now 045/35 kt. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement that during the next 48 hours, Pablo should slow down while making a counter-clockwise track around the northeastern periphery of the larger extratropical low that the small cyclone is embedded within. The tightly packed guidance suite has shifted to the right of the previous advisory track, and the new NHC forecast track has been adjusted in that direction, close to the various consensus models.

Pablo is currently located over 20 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST), with colder water near 15 deg C ahead of the cyclone. Model forecast soundings indicate that mid- and upper-level temperatures will be warming, and when combined with the cooler SSTs, will result in stabilization of the troposphere. This will cause convection to steadily weaken and erode by 12 h, resulting in Pablo degenerating into a post-tropical extratropical low-pressure system in 24 h, if not sooner. The small cyclone is forecast to dissipate or become absorbed by the larger parent extratropical low in the 48-72 h forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 40.7N  20.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Porto, Portugal)
 12H  27/1800Z 43.8N  17.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW A Coruña, Spain)
 24H  28/0600Z 46.2N  17.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Depreassion (WSW La Rochelle, France)
 36H  28/1800Z 46.9N  18.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Low (WSW La Rochelle, France)
 48H  29/0600Z 48.3N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW Brest, France)
 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 26, 2019

Pablo passed just to the southeast of Santa Maria island in the eastern Azores earlier this evening and is now accelerating away from the islands. A pair of ASCAT passes around 2100-2200 UTC showed that Pablo was stronger than previously estimated, with maximum winds above 50 kt. The latest SATCON estimate also supports a higher intensity of 55 kt, so that is the value used for this advisory.

Pablo’s higher intensity is not necessarily an indication of further intensification, and its cloud pattern has actually slightly degraded since earlier today. The NHC forecast is based primarily on the dynamical model consensus, and nearly all of those models indicate that Pablo will maintain its strength overnight and then gradually weaken on Sunday and Monday. Pablo’s upper-air environment is unusually cold, and this will likely allow it to maintain convection for longer than typically expected, given that the SHIPS SST analysis is already down to 22 deg C. Much colder waters are ahead, and Pablo is still forecast to become post-tropical within 36 h, though it is worth noting that a few dynamical models indicate it could try to maintain its tropical structure over very cold waters a little bit longer.

The tropical storm has moved to the right of and faster than the previous forecast track and the initial motion estimate is 050/25 kt. Pablo should curve counter-clockwise around the eastern side of the larger extratropical low it is embedded within during the next couple of days. Most of the guidance is farther to the right than it was before and the NHC forecast is therefore also shifted substantially in that direction, but not as far as the multi-model consensus. Further adjustments in the track forecast may be required if current model trends continue.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 38.2N  22.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Nordeste, Azores)
 12H  27/1200Z 41.0N  20.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Porto, Portugal)
 24H  28/0000Z 44.1N  19.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW A Coruña, Spain)
 36H  28/1200Z 46.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Low (WSW La Rochelle, France)
 48H  29/0000Z 47.1N  21.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW Brest, France)
 72H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sat Oct 26, 2019

Pablo has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with a small eye becoming somewhat better defined. However, the various satellite intensity estimates have remained near 45 kt. Based on the increased organization since the 40-45 kt winds seen in earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is now set at 50 kt.

Pablo has turned northeastward and accelerated, with the initial motion now 055/22. This motion should bring the small core of the storm near or over the eastern Azores during the next several hours. After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually northwestward as a developing mid-latitude low to the west becomes the dominant steering mechanism. The guidance has shifted a bit to the east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to, but east of, the previous forecast.

Pablo should slow weaken as it moves into an environment of colder sea surface temperatures and increasing shear, and a developing frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming extratropical by 36 h. The global models continue to forecast the system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the intensity forecast again shows dissipation during that time.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 36.3N  25.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Vila do Porto, Azores)
 12H  27/0600Z 39.3N  22.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Nordeste, Azores)
 24H  27/1800Z 42.7N  20.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Porto, Portugal)
 36H  28/0600Z 44.9N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW A Coruña, Spain)
 48H  28/1800Z 46.3N  21.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW Bordeaux, France)
 72H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26, 2019

Pablo has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The small cyclone is maintaining an area of banded convection near the center, and there have been occasional appearances of an eye-like feature. Recent scatterometer overpasses show several wind vectors of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 090/14, a little faster than before. Pablo is expected to turn northeastward during the next few hours, with the small core of the storm passing near or over the eastern Azores tonight. After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually northwestward as it, as well as the surrounding larger low-pressure area, become steered by another mid-latitude low-pressure area developing over the north central Atlantic. The first 24 h of the new forecast track is adjusted somewhat to the east of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, with only small changes made thereafter. The new track lies near the various consensus models.

Little significant change in strength is expected during the next 24 h or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to support deep convection. After that time, colder sea surface temperatures, increasing shear, and a developing frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming extratropical. The global models continue to forecast the system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the intensity forecast shows dissipation during that time.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 35.2N  28.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Vila do Porto, Azores)
 12H  27/0000Z 37.4N  25.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Nordeste, Azores)
 24H  27/1200Z 40.8N  22.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ponta Delgada, Azores)
 36H  28/0000Z 43.5N  21.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW A Coruña, Spain)
 48H  28/1200Z 45.3N  21.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW Bordeaux, France)
 72H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26, 2019

Pablo remains a small cyclone, and recently the eye-like feature that was noted in earlier satellite images is no longer evident. Since the system continues to have an area of deep convection concentrated near the center, it should still be classified as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity is held at 40 kt, in general agreement with the most recent estimate from TAFB, and pending a new scatterometer overpass. Pablo is embedded within a much larger cyclonic circulation that is also producing gale-force winds well to the north and northwest of the center.

The tropical storm is moving a little south of east at around 8 kt. A turn toward the northeast and north is expected over the next couple of days as Pablo moves around the periphery of a large deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one but slightly slower than the latest corrected dynamical model consensus.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to support deep convection. However, by 36 hours the cyclone will be passing over waters of 18 deg C or colder. This should result in the system becoming an extratropical low around that time. In 2-3 days, the global models show the post-tropical low merging with a larger low over the north Atlantic.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 35.3N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Vila do Porto, Azores)
 12H  26/1800Z 36.6N  27.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Vila do Porto, Azores)
 24H  27/0600Z 39.5N  23.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ponta Delgada, Azores)
 36H  27/1800Z 43.0N  21.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW A Coruña,Spain)
 48H  28/0600Z 45.3N  21.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (ESE Bordeaux. France)
 72H  29/0600Z 47.5N  22.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW Brest, France)
 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 25, 2019

Pablo continues to exhibit a tight circulation with an occasional eye feature evident in satellite images, which is why the system is classified a tropical storm. However, a larger look at the east Atlantic reveals that Pablo is a tiny feature within a broad extratropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt, which is based on a recent ASCAT-C overpass that showed a small area of tropical-storm-force winds near the center. It should be noted that a much larger area of winds of about the same strength, associated with the parent extratropical low, exist to the north and west of Pablo.

The small tropical storm is moving east-southeastward at 8 kt as the overall trough continues to dig in that direction. A turn to the east should occur by early Saturday, followed by a faster northeastward or north-northeastward motion by Saturday night, taking the cyclone across the Azores. By the end of the weekend and early next week, a slower northward motion seems likely before the storm is absorbed by another extratropical low to its west. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Pablo could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it remains in unstable conditions and over waters that should support some convection. However, the system is expected to move over sharply colder waters Saturday night and Sunday, and that should cause Pablo to lose its tropical characteristics. The models show the extratropical low dissipating or becoming absorbed by another extratropical low in a little more than 3 days.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 35.5N  31.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Horta, Azores)
 12H  26/1200Z 35.6N  28.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Horta, Azores)
 24H  27/0000Z 37.7N  25.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Água Retorta, Azores)
 36H  27/1200Z 41.2N  22.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Porto, Portugal)
 48H  28/0000Z 44.0N  21.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW A Coruña, Spain)
 72H  29/0000Z 47.3N  20.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW Brest, France)
 96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Fri Oct 25, 2019

High-resolution visible satellite imagery gave us a surprise today. A tropical cyclone has formed within a larger extratropical cyclone in the northeastern Atlantic. This is not unique and has occurred several times in the past, primarily during the latter part of the hurricane season. Pablo is a very small-scale tropical cyclone, but ASCAT data clearly show a well-defined but small-circulation with 40-kt winds embedded within the larger low. This is the intensity assigned to the cyclone for this advisory. The cloud pattern consists of an eye-type feature surrounded by a ring of deep convection. Given the small size of the cyclone, and the baroclinic environment, the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. At this time, the NHC forecast calls for a small increase in the winds and for the cyclone to become extratropical in about 36 hours. However, this transition could occur sooner than anticipated.

Pablo is currently moving toward the east-southeast at about 9 kt while embedded within the circulation of the larger extratropical low. Pablo should then turn toward the northeast with some increase in forward speed, as indicated by the multi-model consensus aids. In fact, all the models are in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 35.8N  32.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 12H  26/0600Z 35.3N  30.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Vila do Porto, Azores)
 24H  26/1800Z 36.3N  26.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Vila do Porto, Azores)
 36H  27/0600Z 40.0N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ponta Delgada, Azores)
 48H  27/1800Z 43.0N  21.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW A Coruña, Spain)
 72H  28/1800Z 46.5N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Low (WSW La Rochelle, France)
 96H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 25, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently developed Tropical Depression Seventeen over the western Gulf of Mexico. 1. Shower activity continues to become better organized in association with a small-scale low-pressure area embedded within a larger extratropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores. If current trends continue, advisories on a tropical or subtropical cyclone could be initiated later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast, and interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Updated: Recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the small non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the western Azores is producing tropical-storm-force winds near the center. The thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized and if this trend continues a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast for the next day or so and interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 25, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has increased this morning near the center of a large non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the western Azores. Some additional development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves generally east-northeastward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

If this storm system is named, it will become Tropical Storm

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