Tropical Storm Olga

Post Tropical Storm Olga Track 2200 hours October 25 2019
Post Tropical Storm Olga Track 2200 hours October 25 2019

Tropical Storm Olga Satelitte 2000 hours October 25 2019Tropical Storm Olga – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25, 2019

Earlier this evening, the last 2 passes through Olga (see Friday night video below) made by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the cyclone becoming embedded within a cold front. The strong northwesterly flow was observed within 10 n mi northwest of Olga’s center and a sharp temperature and dew point gradient was measured across the cyclone. It does not appear that Olga has separated from the front in any significant way since the plane left. In fact, recent surface observations suggest that either the front passes through the center of the cyclone or its circulation has become poorly defined. Based on all these data, Olga is now classified as post-tropical and this is the last NHC advisory.

Since Olga is entangled with the front, the winds and seas associated the front are now considered to be representative of the overall system. The intensity of the post-tropical cyclone is set at 45 kt based on SFMR winds of 48 kt and flight-level winds of 54 kt found by the plane behind the front. No substantial change in Olga’s strength is anticipated before it reaches the coast Saturday morning, and the winds should decrease quickly thereafter. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to move quickly up the Mississippi Valley on Saturday, before turning northeastward toward the Great Lakes late Saturday or early Sunday. Dissipation is anticipated before the end of the weekend.Tropical Storm Olga Forming Rainfall 2000 hours October 25 2019

Severe weather, including heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes will be the primary hazard associated with post-tropical Olga as it races northward. Coastal flooding is also possible tonight along portions of the Louisiana coast. For more information specific to your area, please see products from your local weather service office at weather.gov.

Key messages:

  • 1. Olga is now a post-tropical cyclone. Detailed information about hazards related to wind, rainfall, coastal flooding, and tornadoes can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 27.8N  92.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Low (WSW Marsh Island, LA)
 12H  26/1200Z 31.8N  90.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (Hazlehurst, MS)
 24H  27/0000Z 38.0N  88.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (Dale, Il)
 36H  27/1200Z 43.5N  83.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (Fairgrove, Mi)
 48H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 25, 2019

Although Tropical Depression Seventeen  began looking less and less like a tropical cyclone in satellite imagery, scatterometer data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that so far the tropical cyclone remains just ahead of the approaching cold front, with the aircraft showing the front located about 25 n mi from the center in the southwestern quadrant. In addition, the aircraft and scatterometer data indicate that the cyclone’s winds have increased to 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant. Based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Olga. It should be noted that a large area of 35-45 kt winds is occurring west of the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico, although these winds are more due to the cold air surging across the Gulf than to the cyclone’s circulation.

Olga has begun its expected acceleration toward the north-northeast with the initial motion now 030/16. A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states should steer the cyclone generally north-northeastward with an additional increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The center is expected to cross the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning and eventually reach the eastern Great Lakes by late Sunday. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the east of the previous one based on the initial position and motion through 36 h and an eastward shift in the guidance at 48 h.Tropical Storm Olga Wind Force Field 1300 Hours October 25 2019

All indications are that Olga will complete extratropical transition during the next few hours as it merges with the cold front. The intensity forecast shows slight strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that the winds west of the cold front remain strong as they wrap into the circulation of Olga. The post-tropical low should weaken after landfall, and it is expected to dissipate just after the 48-h point.

Key messages:

  • 1. Since Olga is expected to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 26.3N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Galveston, TX)
 12H  26/0600Z 29.8N  91.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Alice B, TX)
 24H  26/1800Z 35.2N  89.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (Memphis, TN)
 36H  27/0600Z 40.1N  86.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (Clinton, IL)
 48H  27/1800Z 44.5N  81.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (W Southampton, On Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25, 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the low-pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, a cluster of strong convection is located near and to the northeast of the low-level center. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seventeen. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, and it is possible based on last night’s scatterometer data that this is conservative.

A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days, with the center crossing the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models.

A surface cold front associated with the baroclinic trough is quickly approaching the center of the depression, and the tropical cyclone is expected to merge with the front during the next 12 h. Based on this, the cyclone is expected to become a gale-force post-tropical low before it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The low should weaken after landfall, with dissipation expected just after 48 h. There is a chance that the system could briefly become a tropical storm this afternoon before it merges with the cold front. However, even if this occurs it will make little difference to the impacts on the northern Gulf coast.

Key messages:

  • 1. Since depression is expected to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 25.6N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Brownsville, TX)
 12H  26/0000Z 28.2N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Galveston, TX)
 24H  26/1200Z 32.6N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Lake Providence. LA)
 36H  27/0000Z 38.1N  89.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Sesser, IL)
 48H  27/1200Z 43.2N  85.4W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Gowen, MI)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 24, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low-pressure system located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Although recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance still does not have a well-defined center, further development is anticipated and there is a high chance that a short-lived tropical depression will form later tonight or on Friday. The system is forecast to merge with a cold front or become post-tropical late Friday or Saturday over the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 24, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a low-pressure system located over the Bay of Campeche. However, recent satellite data indicate that the circulation is elongated and not well defined. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with a cold front by late Friday.  Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 950 AM EDT Thu Oct 24, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Early morning visible satellite images indicate that the circulation of the low-pressure area in the Bay of Campeche has become a little better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with a cold front by late Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 24, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and are showing some signs of organization, this morning. This system has the opportunity for some short-term development while it moves northward before it merges with a cold front by late Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 24, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly over southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves generally northwestward and then northward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is then forecast to merge with a cold front over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Tropical Storm Olga – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 23, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over southern Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, and the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves generally northwestward and then northward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is then forecast to merge with a cold front over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 23, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and emerge over the Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and then move northward and northeastward into the southwestern and central Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. Some development will be possible on Friday and early Saturday before the system merges with a cold front by early Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 23, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and emerge over the Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and then move northward and northeastward into the southwestern and central Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. Some development will be possible by late Friday and Saturday before the system likely becomes absorbed by a cold front on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 23, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and Guatemala are associated with a tropical wave. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward and emerge over the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday. Some development is then possible on Friday near the east coast of Mexico before the disturbance likely becomes absorbed by a cold front this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 22, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize are associated with a tropical wave. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward and emerge over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday. Some development is then possible on Friday near the east coast of Mexico before the disturbance likely becomes absorbed by a cold front this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

If this storm system is named it will be, Tropical Storm Olga.

Article Resources:

Recent Tropical Cruise Weather:

Video: WATCH: Spotty Showers Saturday and More Rain Likely By Sunday Morning

Please follow and like us: