Tropical Storm Melissa

Post-Tropical Storm Melissa Track 1100 Hours October 14 2019
Post-Tropical Storm Melissa Track 1100 Hours October 14 2019

Tropical Storm Melissa Satellite 1100 Hours October 13 2019Tropical Storm Melissa –  (see Monday video below) NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14, 2019

Melissa has transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Shallow convection has become displaced greater than 100 n mi from the center, and Melissa’s circulation has become embedded within a frontal zone. The inner-core now consists of a swirl of low clouds with a large amount of cool post-frontal stratocumulus wrapping into the northern and western portions of the circulation. A recent ship report just southwest of the center indicated gale-force winds are still occuring in association with Melissa, and 35 kt will be this advisory’s initial intensity. The extratropical cyclone is expected to gradually weaken over the next day or so, and dissipate before it reaches the Azores.

Melissa is now moving at 080/20 kt and is embedded within mid-latitude westerlies. This general motion is expected to continue until the cyclone dissipates.

This is the last advisory on Melissa from the National Hurricane Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 41.0N  51.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 12H  15/0000Z 41.4N  46.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 24H  15/1200Z 41.4N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Mon Oct 14, 2019

Melissa is hanging on to tropical storm status. Satellite images indicate that an area of deep convection continues to pulse in the northeastern quadrant of the circulation, but the remainder of the cyclone consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. The center of Melissa is losing definition as it is becoming increasingly elongated from northeast to southwest due to the interaction with a front about 90 n mi to its northwest. An ASCAT-C pass from around 0100 UTC showed maximum winds of about 35 kt in the southeastern quadrant, and the initial intensity is held at that value. This wind speed estimate is a little higher than the Dvorak estimates.

Melissa is expected to remain in hostile conditions of strong westerly wind shear and dry mid-level air, and it is headed for progressively cooler waters. These conditions should promote weakening and ultimately dissipation within a day or two. Although the official forecast doesn’t show Melissa dissipating until 36 hours, most of the models show the storm opening up into a trough later today, so it could certainly dissipate sooner than forecast. The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward at 17 kt. An even faster east-northeast to east motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates as it moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the tightly-packed guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 40.7N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 12H  14/1800Z 41.2N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 24H  15/0600Z 41.5N  43.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 36H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sun Oct 13, 2019

After an earlier flare-up of convection, thunderstorm activity has decreased significantly in both coverage and intensity during the past 4 hours. Convection is now limited to a small area in the northeastern quadrant and the inner-core region is becoming dominated by stable cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on 1400Z ASCAT wind data showing 35-36 kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle and subsequent erosion of the convective pattern.

Melissa continues to gradually accelerate east-northeastward and the initial motion estimate is now 075/16 kt. An additional increase in forward speed, in conjunction with a turn toward the east, is expected by tonight and then continue through the remainder of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near an average of the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

The unfavorable combination of westerly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt and SSTs less than 24 deg C is expected to continue the current weakening trend, with Melissa becoming a remnant low by Monday morning. The cyclone is forecast to merge or interact with a larger extratropical low by Wednesday and dissipate. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 39.9N  58.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 12H  14/0600Z 40.5N  55.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 24H  14/1800Z 41.4N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 36H  15/0600Z 41.9N  43.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 48H  15/1800Z 41.7N  37.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 13, 2019

After an overnight convective hiatus, likely due to Melissa passing over a narrow band of cold water, deep convection has increased near the center and a curved band of broken convection has developed in the eastern semicircle. A 12Z TAFB shear pattern satellite intensity estimate resulted in 45 kt while the curved band pattern produced 35 kt. An average of these estimates yields 40 kt, which is close to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON and ADT estimates of 44 kt and 43 kt, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 40 kt.

Melissa is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward and the initial motion estimate is now 075/15 kt. A further increase in forward speed combined with an eastward motion is expected over the next couple of days as Melissa moves around the northern periphery of the deep-layer Bermuda-Azores high. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, Melissa is forecast to turn toward the east-southeast as a weakening extratropical low-pressure system. The new NHC track forecast was nudged a little to the right of the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the tightly-packed consensus guidance envelope.

The westerly wind shear across Melissa is currently around 20 kt and the cyclone is moving over sub-25 degree C sea-surface temperatures (SST). Water temperatures ahead of the cyclone are forecast to decrease to 21-22 deg C within 12 hours, while the shear is expected to increase to 25-30 kt. The combination of these two negative factors will result in weakening by this evening, which will continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period, with Melissa becoming a post-tropical remnant by Monday and merging with a frontal system or larger extratropical low by Wednesday. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 39.8N  60.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 12H  14/0000Z 40.5N  57.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 24H  14/1200Z 41.4N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 36H  15/0000Z 41.9N  47.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 48H  15/1200Z 41.8N  41.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 72H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Sun Oct 13, 2019

Satellite images indicate that Melissa has lost organization overnight. Deep convection separated from the low-level center a little before 0000 UTC, and now its convection is confined to a new area about 50 n mi north and northeast of the center. This degraded appearance in the cyclone’s structure is due to about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. An ASCAT pass from around 0200 UTC showed maximum winds in the 40 to 45 kt range, but since the convective pattern has degraded since then, the initial wind speed is lowered to 40 kt. This estimate is also near an average of the Dvorak FT and CI numbers from TAFB.

The westerly shear is expected to increase even more during the next couple of days. These hostile winds aloft combined with the continued influence of dry and stable air should cause continued weakening, and Melissa is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, when it is forecast to be over SSTs below 22 C. The global models show the remnants of Melissa becoming absorbed or merging with a front in 2 to 3 days.

Melissa has moved a little to the north of the previous track, with the initial motion now estimated to be 065/12 kt. The steering pattern is expected to become more zonal during the next couple of days, which should cause Melissa to move generally eastward at increasing forward speeds before it is absorbed within the frontal zone. The official track forecast is adjusted a little to the north of the previous one to account for the initial motion and position. This forecast lies near the middle of the tightly-packed guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 39.3N  62.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 12H  13/1800Z 40.2N  59.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 24H  14/0600Z 41.1N  55.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 36H  14/1800Z 42.0N  50.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 48H  15/0600Z 42.3N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 72H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12, 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that westerly shear is increasing over Melissa and the low-level center is now partly exposed at the western edge of the central convective mass. However, this has not yet resulted in a significant decrease in the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

The initial intensity thus remains 45 kt. There have been significant changes to the initial 12-ft seas radii for this advisory based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. The initial motion is now 080/12. Melissa should be steered generally eastward to east-northeastward in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies until the system is absorbed by a frontal zone after 72 h. There is little change to either the forecast guidance or the forecast track since the previous advisory, and the new forecast is in good agreement with the consensus models.

Westerly shear should continue to increase over Melissa during the next three days. In addition, after passing over a patch or eddy of warm water associated with the Gulf Stream on Sunday, the storm should encounter much colder water. This combination should cause Melissa to weaken, and it is expected to become a remnant low after 24 h. While the forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous forecast, the new intensity forecast is tweaked slightly to keep Melissa a tropical storm through 24 h based on the expected passage over the warm water eddy. Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the U.S. east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 38.6N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 12H  13/1200Z 39.2N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 24H  14/0000Z 40.2N  57.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 36H  14/1200Z 41.1N  53.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 48H  15/0000Z 42.0N  47.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 72H  16/0000Z 42.2N  35.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 96H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sat Oct 12, 2019

Convection has continued to persist near the center of Melissa throughout the day, and only in the past few hours have the affects of increasing westerly shear began to erode the convection from the western side of the cyclone. A pair of scatterometer passes late this morning showed that the wind field associated with the storm had contracted, with the strongest winds occurring within 50 n mi of the center. They also revealed that the radius of maximum winds had decreased to 20 n mi. Based on these data along with a tropical structure apparent in satellite and microwave data, it is likely that Melissa completed a transition to a tropical cyclone at some point this morning. A recent Dvorak classification from TAFB, an objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT, and an earlier scatterometer pass all support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

The westerly shear beginning to affect Melissa is expected to gradually increase over the next few days. Through tonight, the cyclone will move over waters of 23-24 C. In addition, the upper trough over the storm that has aided in maintaining its convection will weaken and lift northeast of the cyclone over the next day or so. The combination of these factors should cause Melissa to weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday. The global model intensity forecasts appear to be capturing the strongest winds in a frontal zone well-removed to the northeast of Melissa and not directly associated with the cyclone itself. Thus, the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and continues to be lower than the global model guidance.

Melissa is moving east-northeastward or 070/10 kt. The increasing westerly flow will cause the cyclone to gradually accelerate through Monday. This motion will continue, with a slight turn to the east in a few days, just before the cyclone is absorbed by a frontal zone. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and in the middle of the various consensus aids.

Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 38.4N  65.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 12H  13/0600Z 39.0N  63.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 24H  13/1800Z 39.8N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE New York Coty, NY)
 36H  14/0600Z 40.7N  55.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 48H  14/1800Z 41.6N  51.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 72H  15/1800Z 42.4N  39.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WNW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 96H  16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 12, 2019

A small area of deep convection has persisted for the past several hours over and around the center of Melissa. Recent AMSU microwave temperature data indicate that a warm core exists at least above 550 mb. It is uncertain, however, if this warm core is due to the intrusion of warmer temperatures aloft embedded in the upper trough over Melissa, or if the warming was induced by convective feedback. If deep convection persists into the afternoon, then it is more likely that the warm core is due to the convection, and Melissa could transition to a tropical cyclone by that time.

Based on nearby surface observations, the wind field immediately surrounding Melissa has contracted, with no evidence of gale-force winds beyond 150 n mi from the center. Given the convection near the center, the strongest winds are now most likely occurring in that region. The latest Hebert-Poteat subtropical satellite intensity estimate from TAFB is 45-50 kt, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON tropical estimates are 41 kt and 42 kt, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 45 kt.

The upper trough over Melissa is forecast to weaken and lift northeastward through tonight, which would remove the upper-level support for the subtropical storm. Increasing westerly wind shear and progressively cooler SSTs should weaken the cyclone over the next few days, with Melissa moving over waters of 23-24 C tonight. This should cause the cyclone to lose its convection and transition to a remnant low by Sunday. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to persist for a couple of days just ahead of a frontal zone before it is finally absorbed by the front in 3-4 days. The NHC forecast is near the consensus aids at 12 hours, but a little below that guidance through Sunday, as the global models appear to be capturing the strongest winds in a frontal zone well-removed to the northeast of Melissa, and not directly associated with the cyclone itself.

Melissa is now moving east-northeastward or 070/08 kt. Increasing westerly flow will cause the cyclone to accelerate tonight through Monday. This motion will continue until the cyclone is absorbed by a frontal zone. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and in the middle of the various consensus aids.

Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend from offshore of Nova Scotia eastward over the Atlantic are not included in the wind radii since they are associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Melissa is expected to slowly weaken and move away from the U.S. east coast today, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts.
  • 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England coasts around times of high tide today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 38.1N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 12H  13/0000Z 38.7N  65.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 24H  13/1200Z 39.6N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 36H  14/0000Z 40.3N  58.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 48H  14/1200Z 41.0N  54.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 72H  15/1200Z 42.2N  45.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 96H  16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11, 2019

Although Melissa’s convection hasn’t been very deep for much of the day, there has been a slight cooling of cloud tops during the past few hours. This could possibly be due to the system’s center now moving over the core of the Gulf Stream current, where water temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. There has also been sporadic lightning strikes observed within the convection to the north of the center. Despite this, the latest Hebert-Poteat subtropical classification from TAFB is ST2.5/35 kt, and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate from a few hours ago was 44 kt. Based on these data, Melissa’s winds are lowered to 45 kt. Melissa is moving a little faster and now toward the southeast, or 125/6 kt.

Although Melissa and its parent upper-level low are cut off from the mid-latitude westerlies, a ridge currently located over the Appalachian Mountains is expected to flatten on Saturday, causing westerly flow to become established and force Melissa out to sea. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate eastward starting on Saturday and continuing into early next week. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast on this cycle.

Melissa’s journey across the warm Gulf Stream waters will be short-lived, only lasting for about 12 hours, and upper-level westerly winds will be increasing over the system significantly on Saturday. Therefore, gradual weakening is anticipated, with the NHC intensity forecast more or less mirroring the guidance provided by the GFS and ECMWF global models. Melissa is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The remnant low is likely to be absorbed within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic by day 4.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Gale-force winds that extend from the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia eastward over the Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since they are associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Melissa is expected to slowly weaken and move away from the U.S. east coast overnight and on Saturday, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts.
  • 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England coasts on Saturday around times of high tide.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 37.7N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 12H  12/1200Z 37.8N  67.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 24H  13/0000Z 38.1N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 36H  13/1200Z 38.5N  62.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 48H  14/0000Z 39.0N  58.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE New York City, NY)
 72H  15/0000Z 40.4N  50.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 96H  16/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11, 2019

Melissa continues to churn south-southwest of New England. A late-morning scatterometer overpass indicated that the large wind field remains in tact with only a slight decrease in maximum winds, while satellite imagery continues to show banding surrounding the circulation center. A recent Hebert-Poteat intensity estimate from TAFB also suggests some slight weakening, and the intensity will be lowered to 50 kt for this advisory.

Strong upper-level westerly winds will cause Melissa to weaken over next couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become post-tropical by Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is then expected to be absorbed by an approaching front in 3 to 4 days.

For the past few hours, Melissa has been moving slowly south-southeastward as the cyclone remains in weak steering flow under an upper-level trough. Later tonight, an approaching mid-latitude trough currently crossing the upper Midwest will begin to force an eastward motion, with a gradual increase in forward speed Saturday through Monday. This motion will continue until the cyclone is absorbed by the cold front. The NHC track forecast was adjusted a little to the right due to a southward shift in the guidance and lies on the northern edge of the consensus aids.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend well northeastward of Melissa into the central Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since they are associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

  • 1. The expected magnitude of wind and coastal flooding impacts along portions of the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southeastern New England has not changed. For information on these hazards, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov.
  • 2. Melissa is expected to gradually weaken and begin moving away from the U.S. east coast by tonight, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 38.2N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 12H  12/0600Z 38.0N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 24H  12/1800Z 38.3N  66.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 36H  13/0600Z 38.8N  63.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 48H  13/1800Z 39.2N  60.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE New York City, NY)
 72H  14/1800Z 40.7N  52.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 96H  15/1800Z...ABSORBED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11, 2019

Convection increased near the center of the nor’easter centered southeast of New England overnight. First-light visible satellite imagery briefly showed an eye-like feature before the convection around the immediate center began to weaken. However, a large convective band still persists over the northern semicircle, and this structure indicated the system has transitioned to a subtropical cyclone. The latest Hebert-Poteat classification from TAFB indicates an initial intensity of 55 kt, and this is also supported by an earlier scatterometer overpass showing a large area of winds near 50 kt in the northwest quadrant.

Melissa is currently located underneath an upper-level trough, resulting in a light shear environment. This trough will begin to lift northeastward later today, and strong upper-level westerlies should begin to affect the storm by tonight. This pattern is expected to cause a weakening trend, and Melissa is forecast to become post-tropical by Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is then expected to be absorbed by an approaching front in 3 to 4 days.

Melissa is currently embedded in weak steering flow under the upper- level trough and little net motion is expected today. Later tonight, an approaching mid-latitude trough currently crossing the upper Midwest will begin to force an east-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed. This motion will continue until the cyclone is absorbed by the cold front. The NHC track forecast is closest to the ECMWF ensemble mean.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend well northeastward of Melissa into the central Atlantic that are not included in the wind radii, since they are associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

  • While the nor’easter centered southeast of New England has become Subtropical Storm, Melissa, the expected magnitude of wind and coastal flooding impacts along portions of the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southeastern New England has not changed. For information on these hazards, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov.
  • 2. Melissa is expected to gradually weaken and begin moving away from the U.S. east coast by tonight, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 38.5N  69.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 12H  12/0000Z 38.2N  69.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 24H  12/1200Z 38.4N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cape May, NJ)
 36H  13/0000Z 39.0N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 48H  13/1200Z 39.9N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE New York City, NY)
 72H  14/1200Z 41.3N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Bodyon, MA)
 96H  15/1200Z...ABSORBED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 830 AM EDT Fri Oct 11, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion for the system southeast of New England. 1. UPDATED: Early morning visible satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to become better organized near the center of a low-pressure system located about 200 miles south-southeast of Martha’s Vineyard. If this trend continues, advisories will likely be issued for this system as a subtropical storm later this morning. Upper-level winds are expected to increase over the system during the weekend while the low weakens and moves away from the northeastern United States. This low is already producing storm-force winds and is expected to continue meandering off the coast through tonight, producing strong winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and rough surf along portions of the mid-Atlantic and the northeastern United States coasts. Additional information on this system can be found in local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 11, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers have become more concentrated this morning near the center of a non-tropical low-pressure system located off the northeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States. This low, which is currently producing storm-force winds, is expected to continue meandering off the coast through tonight, producing strong winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and rough surf along portions of the mid-Atlantic and the northeastern United States coasts. Some additional subtropical or tropical development is possible through tonight. Upper-level winds are expected to increase over the system during the weekend while the low weakens and moves away from the northeastern United States. Additional information on this system can be found in local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 11, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1.

A non-tropical low-pressure system located off the northeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States is producing widespread showers, a few thunderstorms, and storm-force winds. The low is expected to continue meandering off the coast during the next day or so, producing strong winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and rough surf along portions of the mid-Atlantic and the northeastern United States coasts through Saturday. Environmental conditions are not conducive for significant subtropical or tropical development of the low, especially after upper-level winds increase over the system during the weekend. Additional information on this system can also be found in local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 10, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A non-tropical low-pressure system located off the northeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States is producing widespread showers, a few thunderstorms, and storm-force winds. The low is expected to continue meandering off the coast during the next couple of days, but environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant subtropical or tropical development, particularly after upper-level winds increase over the weekend. Strong winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and rough surf are expected to continue affecting portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States coasts through Saturday. Additional information on this system can also be found in local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

If this storm system is named, it will become Tropical Storm Melissa.

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