Tropical Storm Narda

Tropical Storm Narda Track 0900 Hours October 1 2019, 2019
Tropical Storm Narda Track 0900 Hours October 1 2019, 2019

Tropical Storm Narda Satellite 2000 Hours September 29 2019Tropical Storm Narda – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01, 2019

Surface observations and first-light visible satellite imagery show that the surface circulation of Narda has dissipated along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. The system is also producing negligible deep convection.

Therefore, this is the last advisory. Moisture associated with Narda will continue to lift northward and northeastward across portions of northern Mexico and the U.S. Southern plains through Wednesday. This moisture will contribute to heavy rain, with the threat of flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 27.3N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW San Ignacio Río Muerto, Mexico
 12H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01, 2019

The ill-defined surface center of Narda is a bit difficult to find this morning, but the best estimate, using conventional satellite imagery is just offshore of the mainland Mexico coast and about 30 miles southeast of the now decoupled mid-level circulation. The majority of the deep convection associated with the cyclone has moved inland. However, sustained tropical-storm-force winds may still, exist along and just offshore of the coast, north of Los Mochis, Sinaloa, and south of Guaymas, Sonora. Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, and a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.

Although Narda’s center has re-emerged over the Gulf of California, further weakening is still forecast, and dissipation of the cyclone is anticipated as it once again moves inland over the rugged terrain of coastal Mainland Mexico on Wednesday. It’s worth noting, however, that a couple of the large-scale models indicate Narda’s remnants drifting back just offshore over the central Gulf of California prior to dissipation.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/12 kt. This general northwestward motion, within the mid-level southwestern the peripheral flow of strong high-pressure ridging to the northeast, is expected until the cyclone dissipates, and the new NHC forecast track is changed little from the previous one. The main hazard produced by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of deep-layer moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone’s circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Furthermore, the very humid mid- and upper-level remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northeastward across northern Mexico and into portions of the U.S. Southern and Central Plains through Wednesday, enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 26.6N 109.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Yavaros, Mexico)
 12H  01/1800Z 27.9N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Isla Barra Morro Inglés, Mexico)
 24H  02/0600Z 29.2N 111.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Santa Gertrudiz, Mexico)
 36H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30, 2019

Passive microwave satellite imagery, especially a recent 2326 UTC SSMI/S pass, continue to show that a small mid-level eye feature has remained close to the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico since the previous advisory, with the center now located just inland near Los Mochis. Earlier scatterometer surface wind data indicated winds to near 40 kt about 40 n mi south of the center, and extrapolation of the position of those winds would place them near the coast now, and justifies lowering the current intensity to 40 kt. Deep convection near the center has also decreased markedly over the past few hours, further suggesting that the intensity has likely decreased.

Narda has continued moving northwestward at an unusually fast forward speed, or 325/17 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Narda maintaining a northwestward trajectory around the southwestern periphery of a large deep-layer ridge for the next 48 hours, with the center remaining inland or very near the coast during that time. The new NHC forecast track is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and lies close to an average of the tightly packed consensus model tracks. Now that Narda’s center has moved inland again over the mountainous terrain of coastal Mainland Mexico, steady weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. However, tropical-storm-force winds are still possible, especially due to funneling along some of the concave-shaped coastlines near Huatabampito and Guaymas before Narda weakens to a depression in 24 hours or so. Terrain interaction should result in the small cyclone becoming a remnant low or dissipating by 48 hours.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone’s circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Furthermore, the very humid mid- and upper-level remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northeastward across northern Mexico and into portions of the U.S. Southern and Central Plains through at least Wednesday, enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 25.7N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  01/1200Z 26.9N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER NEAR COAST
 24H  02/0000Z 28.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  02/1200Z 29.4N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30, 2019

A couple of microwave passes that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory showed that Narda had become better organized this morning. The imagery revealed well-defined banding and a mid-level eye feature that was located just offshore the coast of mainland Mexico. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt, respectively.

Recent ASCAT data supported an intensity on the lower end of this range, therefore the advisory wind speed has been set at 45 kt. A 10-minute average wind of 32 kt with a gust to 43 kt was reported at Mazatlan late this morning as the center of Narda passed nearby. Since the center is so close to the coast, little additional strengthening is expected. By late tonight or early Tuesday, Narda is likely to move just inland along the coast and weakening should begin by that time. The system is forecast to become a remnant low within a couple of days and dissipate over northwestern Mexico shortly thereafter. Weakening and dissipation could occur much sooner if Narda moves to the right of the current NHC forecast track.

Narda continues to move quickly northwestward or 325/14 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning as Narda should continue heading northwestward along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement this cycle, and the NHC forecast is in best agreement with the 1200 UTC ECMWF model, and is essentially an update of the previous forecast.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone’s circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 24.0N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Villamoros, Mexico)
 12H  01/0600Z 25.4N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Guasave, Mexico)
 24H  01/1800Z 26.9N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Jinamaqui, Mexico)
 36H  02/0600Z 28.2N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Oritz, Mexico)
 48H  02/1800Z 29.4N 111.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ENE Santa Gertrudiz, Mexico)
 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29, 2019

My best estimate of Narda’s position based on conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with surface observations, is inland near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. There may be other small swirls embedded within a surface trough that lies from the Islas Marias archipelago southeastward to Puerto Vallarta, Narda, and Manzanillo. However, the mid-level circulation center that we have been tracking, which is near ground level in this mountainous region, is the feature that has had the most continuity. A curved band of intense deep convection consisting of cloud tops of -85C to -90C, with isolated overshooting tops to -95C, wraps about halfway around the center and generally corresponds to 35-kt winds. Due to land interaction, however, the initial intensity is being held just below tropical storm strength or 30 kt.

The initial motion is 315/18 kt. A large ridge anchored to the east of Narda is expected to steer the cyclone northwestward for the next 3 days. This will result in Narda emerging back over The Pacific Ocean in about 6 hours, then passing near or over the Islas Marias islands Monday morning, followed by a track near or just offshore the northwestern coast of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. A second landfall is expected along the coast of Mexico on Wednesday, followed by dissipation Wednesday night or early Thursday. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies just a tad to the left of the consensus models TVCN and HCCA, which move the center inland in about 24 hours.

The intensity forecast remains highly uncertain, and leans toward a the consensus of the wind fields in the global models, which show Narda regaining tropical storm status in 6-12 hours as a band of 35-kt winds forms between the center and the mountainous coastline, likely due to funneling/orographic effects. The upper-level environment is forecast to be conducive for additional strengthening when Narda moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of California after 12-18 hours, but land interaction is expected to temper any significant strengthening. Thus, the intensity forecast is flat-lined at 35-kt, although some fluctuations in the intensity is likely. Due to Narda being forecast to regain tropical storm status, tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for portions of northwestern Mexico.

The primary threat from Narda will continue to be very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. This rainfall threat is expected to continue even if the system dissipates as a tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 20.6N 105.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Puerto Vallarta, Mexico)
 12H  30/1200Z 22.0N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Isla Sab Juanito, Mexico)
 24H  01/0000Z 24.0N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Las Arenitas, Mexico)
 36H  01/1200Z 25.4N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla El Farrallón, Mexico)
 48H  02/0000Z 26.7N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW El Tábare, Mexico)
 72H  03/0000Z 29.2N 111.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW El Pueblito, Mexico)
 96H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29, 2019

Narda has become less organized during the past several hours. The primary center has been over the mountains of southwestern Mexico between Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo, and the associated convection has been decreasing. A 17Z ASCAT-C overpass suggests two other vorticity centers are located offshore, one near a cluster of convection to the southwest of Manzanillo and the other to the southwest of Lazaro Cardenas. The scatterometer data showed 35 kt winds southeast of the primary center and given the decrease in organization since that time it is estimated that Narda has dropped below tropical storm strength.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 315/17 kt, which is faster than in the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days, Narda will be steered generally northwestward close to the coast of mainland Mexico along the southwestern periphery of a large high-pressure area. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the northern Baja California peninsula from the west should cause the system to turn north-northwestward and move over northwestern mainland Mexico. The track guidance has shifted to the right since the last advisory. However, due to the uncertainty in what will happen to the center, including the possibility it could re-form offshore, the new forecast track will be to the left of the model consensus. The new track will be faster than the previous track based on a combination of the initial motion and faster guidance.

The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The official forecast will follow the previous forecast in calling for Narda to weaken while over Mexico, and then re-intensify a little when the system emerges over water. However, there remain two alternative scenarios. The first of these is that the circulation dissipates completely as it passes over the mountains of western Mexico. The second is that the center re-forms offshore, either from the vorticity center currently southwest of Manzanillo or, as suggested by some of the global models, from a new center north of Cabo Corrientes. If such a re-formation occurs, this could lead to significant changes in both the intensity and the track forecasts.

The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. This rainfall threat is expected to continue even if the system dissipates as a tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 19.1N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ENE Los Tepames, Mexico)
 12H  30/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Vista Vallejo, Mexico)
 24H  30/1800Z 23.0N 106.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Mazatlán, Mexico)
 36H  01/0600Z 24.7N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW El Tambor, Mexico)
 48H  01/1800Z 25.7N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Las Grullas Margen Derecha, Mexico)
 72H  02/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW San José de Moradillas, Mexico)
 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29, 2019

The center of Narda either re-formed to the northwest or accelerated its forward motion during the night, as surface observations from Mexico and satellite imagery indicate that it is now located along the coast of Mexico near Lazaro Cardenas. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on the Mexican observations and little change in the satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. First-light visible imagery suggests that the cyclone’s circulation is elongated east-west, with the center located on the eastern side of the elongation.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 325/13 kt. Over the next couple of days, Narda will be steered generally northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a large high-pressure area. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the northern Baja California peninsula from the west should cause the system to turn north-northwestward. The new forecast track is parallel to, but moved significantly to the right of, the previous forecast due to the initial position and motion, and it keeps the center over portions of western Mexico for the next 12-24 hours before bringing the system over the southeastern and eastern portions of the Gulf of California.

The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The official forecast will follow the scenario of the previous forecast in calling for Narda to weaken to depression while over Mexico, and then call for some re-intensification later in the forecast period when the system emerges over water in a light shear environment. However, there are two alternative scenarios. The most likely of these is that the circulation dissipates as it passes over the mountains of western Mexico, which is a distinct possibility if the system goes as far inland as currently forecast. The least likely is that the center reforms offshore, which could lead to significant changes in both the intensity and the track forecasts.

The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 18.1N 102.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Petacalco, Mexico)
 12H  30/0000Z 19.3N 103.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Mi Patria es Primero, Mexico)
 24H  30/1200Z 21.5N 105.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE San Blas, Mexico)
 36H  01/0000Z 23.2N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Mazatlán, Mexico)
 48H  01/1200Z 24.5N 108.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Altata, Mexico)
 72H  02/1200Z 26.5N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Las Bocas, Mexico)
 96H  03/1200Z 28.0N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE Mi Patria es Primero, Mexico)
120H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29, 2019

Satellite images and Acapulco radar data show that the storm has become a little better organized with some evidence of banding features. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the southern semicircle of the circulation while the cyclone continues to experience some northeasterly shear. Based on data from a scatterometer overpass, the current intensity is set at 40 kt which is also the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The intensity forecast for Narda is problematic and uncertain since the future strength of the cyclone depends on how much the cyclone will interact with the mountainous landmass of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Some of the models, such as the ECMWF and GFS, take the cyclone inland within the next 24 hours and do not show the system recovering from its land interaction in 24-48 hours. A little more strengthening should occur today, assuming the center remains offshore. The official intensity forecast assumes that the center will move along the coast within the next day or so, and this would cause some weakening and disruption of the circulation. The NHC intensity forecast is in fairly close agreement with the LGEM guidance.

The center is not easy to locate, but my best estimate of initial motion is northwestward or 315/7 kt. Over the next couple of days, the tropical cyclone is likely to move generally northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a large high-pressure area. Later in the period, a trough approaching the northern Baja California peninsula should cause the system to turn toward the north-northwest. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the corrected dynamical model consensus guidance.

The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 16.0N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  29/1800Z 17.4N 102.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  30/0600Z 19.3N 104.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Patricio, Mexico)
 36H  30/1800Z 21.3N 106.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Isla Maria Cleofas, Mexico)
 48H  01/0600Z 22.8N 107.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (Francisco Villa, Mexico)
 72H  02/0600Z 25.0N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Ignacio, Mexico)
 96H  03/0600Z 26.5N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Las Bocas, Mexico)
120H  04/0600Z 27.5N 110.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (Siuti, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28, 2019

The large area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico has not been able to consolidate yet and still, there is no evidence of a well-defined center. Satellite animation continues to suggest that circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco, but it is still elongated. Latest ASCAT measured tropical-storm-force winds well south of the possible developing center.

Since the large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of southern Mexico and the environment is not ideal for strengthening, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest increase in winds. The disturbance could become a tropical storm at any time later tonight or Sunday before it reaches the coast. However, if the system survives the high terrain of the state of Jalisco, it could gather some additional strength when it emerges in the Gulf of California and before the shear increases. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and a large portion of the circulation will be overland. This should result in weakening.

The initial motion continues to be highly uncertain since the disturbance does not have a center good enough to track. However, a high-pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and then north-northwest very close or over the southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution provided by reliable models.

As mentioned this morning, If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. In fact, this is the solution of this morning’s GFS. Regardless of development, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 15.0N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Las Naranjas, Mexico)
 36H  30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Tehualmixtle, Mexico)
 48H  30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW San Juanito, Mexico)
 72H  01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Ignacio, Mexico)
 96H  02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Las Salinas, Mexico)
120H  03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Huivulai, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28, 2019

The area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. There is no evidence of a well-defined center at this time, but satellite animation suggests that circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco. Since there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the coast of Mexico, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of southwestern coast, and advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone 16-E.

Earlier ASCAT data indicate that the disturbance has been producing winds of about 30 kt, mostly within its southern portion. The large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening, but it is good enough for the disturbance to reach tropical storm status. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and the system should weaken.

The initial motion is obviously highly uncertain since there is not a good center to track. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and then north-northwest very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution provided by reliable models.

If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is the chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. Regardless of how strong the system becomes, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 14.9N 100.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Lázaro Cárdena, Mexico)
 36H  30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Pérula, Mexico)
 48H  30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Isla María Madre, Mexico)
 72H  01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (E Isla del Carmen, Mexico)
 96H  02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (E Punta Chivato, Mexico)
120H  03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (ESE Punta Chueca, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Sep 28, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather extends from Central America westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. Although this system does not appear to have a well-defined circulation at this time, development is anticipated, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Interests along that portion of the coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected to continue near the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. For information on potential marine hazards, see High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 27, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with an elongated surface trough. A low-pressure system is forecast to develop along this trough during the next day or two, and it is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 26, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated trough of low pressure developing near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing several clusters of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to form along this trough during the next couple of days, and it is likely to become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of Central America and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 26, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated trough of low pressure is developing near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico and is producing several clusters of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to form along this trough during the next couple of days, and it is likely to become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of Central America and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 25, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple of hundred miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Tropical Storm Narda – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 25, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple hundred miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next few days. A tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 24, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko, which will move into the central Pacific basin this afternoon.

An elongated surface trough is expected to form within a couple of hundred miles of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days. An area of low pressure is likely to form along this trough, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend while moving slowly west-northwestward near the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Sep 24, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week where environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent development. A tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves near the southern or the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 23, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario, located near the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula. Advisories are still being issued on Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

1. A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce limited shower activity. This system is expected to drift northward or northwestward during the next few days, and significant development is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Some slow development is possible thereafter while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure could form over the central portion of the eastern North Pacific basin in a couple of days. Some slight development is possible later this week while the system moves generally northward, several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

If this storm system is named. it will become Tropical Storm Narda.

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