Tropical Storm Lorenzo

Hurricane Lorenzo Track 1100 Hours October 2 2019 2019
Hurricane Lorenzo Track 1100 Hours October 2 2019 2019

Hurricane Lorenzo – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02, 2019

Lorenzo (see Wednesday video below) has completed its transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The center has become exposed on the southwestern edge of the cloud shield and recent ASCAT data indicate that the system has acquired frontal features.

The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is a little above the scatterometer data since there is typically a low bias in that instrument at these wind speeds. The global models suggest that the post-tropical cyclone will only gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Ireland. A faster rate of weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday when the cyclone moves southeastward over Ireland and the United Kingdom. The low should dissipate over southeastern England by late Friday.Hurricane Lorenzo Tropical Force Winds October 2 2019

The cyclone continues to move rapidly northeastward or 040/37 kt, and this general motion should continue into Thursday. After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then southeastward within an area of weaker westerly flow. The global model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is in closest to the ECMWF model.

Future hazard information on Lorenzo for Ireland and the United Kingdom can be found in products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met Office.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Lorenzo’s expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic.

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and- sea/high-seas-forecast

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 44.4N  25.8W   70 KT  80 MPH - (WSW A Coruña, Spain)
 12H  03/0000Z 48.6N  20.8W   70 KT  80 MPH - (WSW Brest, France)
 24H  03/1200Z 52.8N  14.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - (WSW Galway, Ireland)
 36H  04/0000Z 54.0N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - (ESE Bullaunmore, Ireland)
 48H  04/1200Z 52.5N   3.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - (Trefeglwys, UK)
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02, 2019

Lorenzo passed near Flores in the Azores a few hours ago where hurricane-force winds, at least in gusts, were observed. Winds are now decreasing across those islands. The current intensity estimate, 75 kt, assumes only slow weakening since late yesterday. The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric in appearance, suggestive that transition to an extratropical cyclone is well underway.

The global models indicate that Lorenzo will soon become embedded in a frontal zone, and simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models show an extratropical-looking cloud pattern later today. The official forecast calls for a gradual weakening trend over the next couple of days and is above the intensity guidance.

Although the system is forecast to become extratropical in 12 hours, it is still likely a fairly vigorous cyclone when it reaches Ireland late Thursday. After crossing England, the low is likely to dissipate over continental Europe. Lorenzo accelerated significantly late Tuesday, and the motion is rapidly northeastward, or 040/37 kt. Over the next day or so, the system should continue to move northeastward ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the North Atlantic. Then, the cyclone is forecast to turn eastward and a little south of eastward in the weaker westerly flow ahead of the trough. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus but leans a bit toward the ECMWF forecast. Lorenzo’s expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Winds across the Azores will continue to decrease, and watches and warnings for those islands will likely be discontinued later today.
  • 2. Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon or evening.
  • 3. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and the Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 42.3N  29.4W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Brest, France)
 12H  02/1800Z 46.4N  24.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Brest, France)
 24H  03/0600Z 51.6N  16.9W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Dingle, Ireland)
 36H  03/1800Z 54.3N  11.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Belmullet, Ireland)
 48H  04/0600Z 53.5N   6.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Syorm (ESE Dunshaughlin, Ireland)
 72H  05/0600Z 51.5N   3.5E   30 KT  35 MPH - Low (ESE Zoutelande, Netherlands)
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01, 2019

Lorenzo’s convective cloud pattern has eroded significantly during the past 6 hours, with an eye no longer evident in infrared satellite imagery. However, a ragged remnant eye feature is still present in passive microwave imagery, and that data indicates that the mid- and upper-level circulations are tilted about 15-20 nmi northeast of the low-level center due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt. Satellite intensity estimates have also decreased and now support around 75 kt. However, the intensity is being maintained at 85 kt due to Lorenzo’s faster forward speed, which is now about 10 kt more than it was on the previous advisory, offsetting the possible decrease in the tangential winds. The 64-, 50-, and 34-kt wind radii had to once again be expanded in nearly every quadrant, but especially to the southeast, based on a 2305 UTC ASCAT-B overpass. The larger wind field is now expected to result in sustained hurricane-force winds occurring across portions of the western and central Azores on Wednesday morning.

Despite the hurricane’s extremely large size, Lorenzo has continued to accelerate northeastward and is now moving 045/35 kt. Lorenzo’s forward speed should gradually level off near 40 kt on Wednesday, and then gradually begin to decrease by Thursday morning when the cyclone turns more eastward toward Ireland. By late Thursday, post-tropical Lorenzo is forecast to turn east-southeastward, crossing Ireland and southern England. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so only minor tweaks were required, and new advisory lies close to an average of the various consensus model forecast tracks.

Lorenzo is currently moving over sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 24 deg C, and that isn’t taking into account any cold upwelling that is likely occurring beneath the very large hurricane. With only colder water ahead of the cyclone, coupled with vertical shear increasing to more than 40 kt by 12 hours, rapid transition to a powerful post-tropical/extratropical cyclone is expected shortly after Lorenzo passes the Azores. However, only gradual weakening is foreast during the next 24 hours due to baroclinic interaction with an upper-level trough and frontal system. After that time, a more rapid rate of weakening is expected when Lorenzo will be moving over Ireland and England. Lorenzo’s expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic.

Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies: The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds to the Azores beginning within the next couple of hours, with those dangerous conditions continuing into Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.
  • 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 39.1N  32.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Fajã Grande, Azores)
 12H  02/1200Z 42.7N  28.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Vila Do Corvo, Azores)
 24H  03/0000Z 48.4N  21.4W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Brest, France)
 36H  03/1200Z 52.8N  15.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Carraroe, Ireland)
 48H  04/0000Z 54.1N  10.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Glosh, Irreland)
 72H  05/0000Z 52.3N    .5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cardigan, UK)
 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01, 2019

The eye of Hurricane Lorenzo while still evident in both visible and infrared satellite imagery, has become smaller and slightly less distinct this afternoon, but the overall structure of the hurricane has not changed much since the previous advisory. Objective Dvorak T-numbers crept up this morning when the eye cleared for a couple of hours and are somewhat higher than the latest subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. A blend of these estimates remains around 85 kt, and this is the value used as the initial wind speed for this advisory.

Lorenzo is heading toward colder waters and an area of increasing vertical wind shear. However, since the wind field of the hurricane is quite large, only gradually weakening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Lorenzo is forecast to merge with a front and become a strong extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic. The global models indicate that the post-tropical low will weaken more quickly when it moves near Ireland and Great Britain in 2 to 3 days.

Lorenzo continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 040/25 kt. The forward speed of the hurricane is predicted to increase further overnight and on Wednesday as it is steered northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic. By late Thursday, the post-tropical cyclone should slow down and turn eastward or east-southeastward within the low-level westerly flow. The track has continued to bend to the right beyond 48 hours, and the official forecast has once again been adjusted southward and eastward at that time period. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF model. Lorenzo is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.
  • 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and the Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 37.0N  35.5W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Fajã Grande, Azores)
 12H  02/0600Z 40.2N  31.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Vila Do Corvo, Azores)
 24H  02/1800Z 45.6N  24.8W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WNW A Coruña, Spain)
 36H  03/0600Z 51.2N  18.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Dingle, Ireland)
 48H  03/1800Z 54.4N  13.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Belmullet, Ireland)
 72H  04/1800Z 53.2N   3.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Queensferry, UK)
 96H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01, 2019

Lorenzo remains a well-organized hurricane this morning as it heads toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to 90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate over Europe by 96 hours.

Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow. The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone’s track near Ireland and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories. Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.
  • 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 35.2N  37.9W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 12H  02/0000Z 38.0N  34.4W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 24H  02/1200Z 42.8N  28.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 36H  03/0000Z 48.5N  21.4W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Brest, France)
 48H  03/1200Z 53.5N  16.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Letterfrack, Ireland)
 72H  04/1200Z 56.0N   7.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Mannal, Scotland)
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Tue Oct 01, 2019

Hurricane Lorenzo’s eye has become less distinct on satellite images over the past several hours, but the system remains very well organized with tightly curved convective bands. The upper-level outflow remains quite well-defined. The advisory intensity, 85 kt, is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with ADT values from UW-CIMSS. Sea-surface temperatures beneath the cyclone are likely to fall below 20 deg C within 36 hours, along with a large increase in vertical shear. Since Lorenzo has such a large circulation, it will probably be slow to weaken, however. In 48 hours or less, the global models show the system merging with a frontal zone, indicating the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the numerical guidance but still weakens the cyclone below hurricane strength when it nears Ireland and Great Britain. By 96 hours, the cyclone should dissipate over Europe.

The hurricane continues to accelerate and is now moving northeastward near 19 kt. Continued acceleration on the southeast and east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the central north Atlantic should occur over the next day or two. In 72 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward while moving in the westerly flow ahead of the north Atlantic trough. There is still a significant track model divergence around this time, and the official 3-day forecast is somewhat southeast of the model consensus. This leans toward the latest ECMWF solution, which continues to be on the southeast side of the track guidance envelope. Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic.

Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.
  • 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 33.4N  39.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 12H  01/1800Z 35.9N  36.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 24H  02/0600Z 40.2N  31.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 36H  02/1800Z 45.5N  24.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW A Coruña, Spain)
 48H  03/0600Z 51.0N  18.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Dingle, Ireland)
 72H  04/0600Z 56.5N   8.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Castlebay, Scotland)
 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30, 2019

Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses.

The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid-latitude trough and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much better agreement on the cyclone turning east-northeastward close to Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward and is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions.

Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone moving over progressively cooler waters. The extratropical transition should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time. Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly already onshore.

It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days. Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called trapped-wave fetch.

Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.
  • 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 32.0N  41.2W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 12H  01/1200Z 34.1N  39.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 24H  02/0000Z 37.8N  34.2W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 36H  02/1200Z 42.9N  27.7W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Santa Cruz da Graciosa, Azores)
 48H  03/0000Z 49.0N  21.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Dingle, Ireland)
 72H  04/0000Z 55.0N  10.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Low (WSW Kincasslagh, Scotland)
 96H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30, 2019

The wind field of Lorenzo continues to expand, with a trio of scatterometer overpasses showing that tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 270 n mi from the center, while hurricane-force winds can be found up to 90 n mi from the center. A cloud-covered eye has been apparent throughout the day and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye have remained fairly consistent. The most recent Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest Lorenzo is maintaining its strength at 90 kt, which will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. A drifting NOAA buoy near the eyewall of Lorenzo recently reported a pressure of 964.8 mb, supporting the minimum central pressure of 957 mb.

Lorenzo continues moving north-northeastward at 13 kt, around the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its southeast. Over the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. The forecast track confidence remains high through 72 hours. After that time, global models have come into a little better agreement on the future track of Lorenzo, with a turn to the right toward Ireland or the U.K. as a weakening extratropical low. The official forecast track is just a little to the right of the previous one and lies near the consensus aids.

The environment surrounding Lorenzo is not expected to change much through tonight, and therefore the intensity should remain fairly steady. On Tuesday, the hurricane should begin gradually weakening as drier air entrains into the circulation and the system moves over progressively cooler waters. By 48 hours, the interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to weaken and dissipate shortly after 96 hours. The official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours to reflect a more steady intensity in the near term, and then is blended close to the previous forecast after that time.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Azores.
  • 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 30.9N  42.1W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 12H  01/0600Z 32.8N  40.5W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WNW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 24H  01/1800Z 36.1N  36.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 36H  02/0600Z 40.3N  31.4W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Vila do Corvo, azores)
 48H  02/1800Z 45.9N  25.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW La Rochelle, france)
 72H  03/1800Z 55.2N  14.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Dungloe, Ireland)
 96H  04/1800Z 56.3N  10.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Oban, Scotland)
120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 30, 2019

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 42.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29, 2019

There haven’t been a lot of changes with Lorenzo this evening, with a small cloud-filled eye remaining visible and an enormous cloud shield expanding in the northern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates support a somewhat lower intensity than the previous advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt. It should be emphasized that even though the peak winds are down since yesterday, the area of the hurricane-force winds has more than doubled during that time.

Earlier aircraft data indicated that the large hurricane is upwelling a significant amount of cooler waters under the storm, and this is anticipated to cause Lorenzo to slowly weaken during the next couple of days. While the SSTs drop off considerably after late tomorrow, which would normally cause faster weakening, most of the guidance is showing a favorable trough interaction at that time with strong upper-level divergence. These effects are expected to offset, and Lorenzo is likely to be a category 1 or 2 hurricane near the Azores. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except to raise the intensity a little higher near the Azores after more heavily weighting the global models, which have been good performers for this cyclone. The guidance is in very good agreement on Lorenzo becoming an extratropical cyclone in about 72 hours, and that is reflected in the latest forecast.

Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a break in the subtropical ridge. The forecast track confidence remains very high through 48 hours as the hurricane is accelerated toward the northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and the new forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. After that time, however, there is a very large spread in the guidance caused by whether Lorenzo is captured by the mid-latitude trough or if it remains separate. There isn’t much change in the newest guidance, although it should be noted that the 12Z ECMWF solution is pretty far east of its ensemble mean. The forecast track confidence is extremely low beyond 72 hours, and the new NHC track was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory, slightly east of the various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Azores, and these winds could start late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
  • 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the North Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 27.6N  43.5W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 12H  30/1200Z 28.9N  42.9W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 24H  01/0000Z 31.0N  41.5W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 36H  01/1200Z 33.9N  38.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WNW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 48H  02/0000Z 37.5N  34.2W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 72H  03/0000Z 48.0N  22.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Brest, France)
 96H  04/0000Z 53.0N  17.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Roundstone, Ireland)
120H  05/0000Z 54.0N  17.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Belmullet, Ireland)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29, 2019

The Hurricane Lorenzo cloud pattern has continued to degrade throughout the day with cold cloud tops filling in the eye, with a gradual erosion of the convection over the southwest quadrant. A recent AMSR2 pass confirms that the eyewall is indeed open on the western side, and suggests there may be another eyewall replacement cycle occurring. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently performing multiple experimental flights inside and around Lorenzo, and are providing NHC with valuable data. The wind data from the SFMR are indicating that the hurricane-force winds extend outward farther than previously thought, about 60-70 n mi from the center in all quadrants.

The aircraft also reported an adjusted minimum central pressure of 948 mb, a peak flight-level wind of 99 kt, and image capture from an on-board radar that confirmed the break in the eyewall. The available objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 114 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial intensity has been set at 100 kt, but this may be a little generous given much lower dropsonde wind speeds measured by the aircraft.

Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence remains very high through 48 hours, and the new forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. By 72 hours, the guidance continues to diverge significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone to its north late in the forecast period. The ECMWF/UKMET do not have Lorenzo being absorbed into the larger low. Instead, they track Lorenzo to the east-northeast toward Europe ahead of the associated upper trough. The rest of the guidance has Lorenzo absorbed into the low several hundred miles west of the British Isles. The forecast track confidence remains low beyond 72 hours  and was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory.

The aircraft near-surface dropsonde data suggests that Lorenzo is moving over cooler waters of 24-25 degrees C, a few degrees cooler than model guidance indicates, due to the upwelling of the waters with lower oceanic heat content. The environmental conditions for the next 48 hours are characterized by moderate southwesterly shear, decent moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. Due to the presence of the shear and cooler waters, gradual weakening is anticipated for the next couple of days. By 72 hours, much stronger shear and the interaction with the approaching mid-latitude trough should cause the cyclone to weaken at a faster rate and begin to transition to an extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours or so, an extratropical transition is expected to be complete. The official intensity forecast was adjusted lower than the previous one through 48 hours, and then is similar thereafter. This solution is near the various multi-model consensus aids.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo’s exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.
  • 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the North Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 26.9N  44.2W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 12H  30/0600Z 28.2N  43.6W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 24H  30/1800Z 30.1N  42.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 36H  01/0600Z 32.4N  40.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 48H  01/1800Z 35.6N  37.0W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 72H  02/1800Z 44.6N  26.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW A-Coruña, Spain)
 96H  03/1800Z 52.2N  17.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Dingle, Ireland)
120H  04/1800Z 55.0N  15.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Gleann Cholm Cille, Ireland)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29, 2019

Satellite and microwave imagery are indicating that Lorenzo is now weakening. A recent microwave pass showed a broken eyewall as well as dry air in the southwestern quadrant. Over the past hour, the eye has begun to fill in. However, outflow remains excellent and cloud tops remain very cold near the center of the hurricane. A blend of the latest CI values from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent subjective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS suggest the initial intensity is now 125 kt.

Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence is very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of runs. However, there remains significant spread between the operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what’s left of Lorenzo toward the British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence beyond 72 hours is low at the moment and may need further adjustments in the next couple of advisories.

Lorenzo reached its peak intensity last night, and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will steadily weaken over the next several days due to increasing southwesterly shear, dry air entrainment, and progressively cooler SSTs. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are still scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane’s intensity and structure. In a few days, Lorenzo will interact with a frontal zone and begin transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. This transition is expected to be complete by 96 hours. It is important to note that although Lorenzo is forecast to weaken through the forecast period, the wind field is expected to expand at the same time, with tropical-storm-force and 50 kt winds forecast to extend over 300 n mi/ 160 n mi respectively from the center in 72 hours. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

Earlier input from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC indicates that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo’s exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.
  • 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the North Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 25.9N  44.4W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WNW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 12H  30/0000Z 27.2N  43.9W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (WNW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 24H  30/1200Z 28.9N  43.0W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WNW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 36H  01/0000Z 31.0N  41.6W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WNW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 48H  01/1200Z 33.7N  38.9W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 72H  02/1200Z 42.0N  29.0W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 96H  03/1200Z 50.0N  18.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Portmagee, Ireland)
120H  04/1200Z 54.9N  11.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Low (WSW Dungloe, Ireland)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29, 2019

The satellite appearance of Lorenzo is not quite as impressive as it was several hours ago. Although the eye is still very distinct, the cloud tops are not as cold in the eyewall and there are a few dry slots evident beyond the inner core. The initial wind speed is lowered just slightly to 135 kt, but based on the latest satellite estimates this is probably generous. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane’s intensity and structure. Very intense hurricanes like Lorenzo are usually not able to maintain their intensity for very long. Since Lorenzo will be moving toward cooler waters and into an environment of drier air and higher wind shear during the next several days, steady weakening is forecast. Lorenzo is now expected to become extratropical by day 4, when the cyclone will be over SSTs colder than 20 C. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the consensus models, IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA.

Lorenzo is still moving northward at 9 kt through a break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over eastern Canada is expected to amplify when it reaches the central Atlantic, which should cause Lorenzo to accelerate to the northeast during the next few days. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near or just west of the Azores late Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, there are significant differences in the models on whether or not Lorenzo interacts with an extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The ECMWF and UKMET models show little interaction with that low and show Lorenzo moving east-northeastward in the westerlies toward northwestern France, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show Lorenzo rotating around the eastern side of the low and remaining over the Atlantic. The spread in the models is incredibly large, about 1300 n mi by day 5. Given the high uncertainty at this time, only small changes were made to the NHC track forecast, and this one favors the UKMET and ECMWF solutions. However, confidence in the long-term track is very low and adjustments may be needed later today.

The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC provided input that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo’s exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane.
  • 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 25.1N  44.6W  135 KT 155 MPH - Category 4 (WNW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 12H  29/1800Z 26.4N  44.2W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 24H  30/0600Z 28.0N  43.5W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 36H  30/1800Z 29.9N  42.5W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 48H  01/0600Z 32.2N  40.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WNW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 72H  02/0600Z 39.4N  32.1W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Santa Cruz das Flores, Azores)
 96H  03/0600Z 47.8N  20.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Brest, France)
120H  04/0600Z 53.5N  10.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Low (ENE Clifden, Ireland)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28, 2019

Lorenzo has rapidly strengthened this evening. An eyewall replacement cycle completed earlier today, with a recent SSMIS microwave overpass showing that a new eyewall about 30 n mi in diameter now completely encircles the eye. The cold cloud tops surrounding the eye have expanded, with a solid ring of temperatures measuring colder than minus 70 degrees Celsius. In addition, the eye has cleared, with satellite derived cloud-top temperatures now above 15 degrees Celsius. Throughout the evening, the objective and subjective intensity estimates have climbed, with 0130 UTC special classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate unanimously agreeing on a 140-kt initial intensity. This makes Lorenzo an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane.

The initial motion is now northward at 9 kt. Lorenzo will be steered north through a break between two subtropical ridges through tonight, with a turn to the north-northeast expected on Sunday. After Sunday, Lorenzo will begin to get caught up in increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This will cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward through the end of the forecast period. The official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near the middle of the consensus aids. Lorenzo will likely peak in intensity overnight as it remains in the current favorable environment. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible on Sunday mainly due to eyewall replacement cycles. By Sunday night,

Lorenzo will begin to feel the effects of some southwesterly shear ahead of the approaching trough, while it also moves over waters of lower oceanic heat content. These factors should induce a steady weakening trend through 48 hours. After that time, SSTs below 26 C should cause a faster weakening trend. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin interacting with the approaching trough and an associated cold front, which will begin a transition to an extratropical low. This transition is forecast to complete by 120 hours, but it could happen a little sooner than that. The official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours due to the increase in initial intensity, and then blends to near the previous official forecast by 72 hours. With this latest advisory intensity, Lorenzo becomes the strongest hurricane in history this far north and east in the Atlantic basin.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo’s exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane.
  • 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 24.2N  44.9W  140 KT 160 MPH - Category 5 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  29/1200Z 25.5N  44.7W  135 KT 155 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  30/0000Z 27.1N  44.1W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 36H  30/1200Z 28.8N  43.3W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 48H  01/0000Z 30.8N  42.0W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 72H  02/0000Z 36.7N  35.3W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 96H  03/0000Z 45.0N  23.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Bordeaux, France)
120H  04/0000Z 52.2N  10.7W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Inishtooskert, Ireland)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28, 2019

The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has improved throughout this evening, and the ring of cloud tops surrounding the eye have become wider and colder. This has resulted in both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates increasing to a 6.5 on the Dvorak scale, indicative of a 125 kt hurricane. Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued at this time to increase the initial intensity, and the 12-hour and 24-hour forecast wind speeds. No other changes were required to the previous track or intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo’s exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane.
  • 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0000Z 23.8N  45.0W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  29/0600Z 24.6N  44.8W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  29/1800Z 26.3N  44.3W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 36H  30/0600Z 28.0N  43.7W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 48H  30/1800Z 29.7N  42.9W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 72H  01/1800Z 34.8N  38.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
 96H  02/1800Z 42.5N  26.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Vila do Corvo, Azores)
120H  03/1800Z 49.0N  13.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28, 2019

Lorenzo appears to be in the final stages of an eyewall replacement. 37-GHz GCOM imagery from overnight suggested that a smaller inner eyewall was embedded within a larger eye, and the new eyewall now extends 40-45 n mi from the center of circulation. An eye has also reappeared in GOES-16 visible and infrared satellite imagery during the past several hours. Based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of T5.3/97 kt, Lorenzo’s intensity is still estimated to be 100 kt.

Although the hurricane seems to be wobbling a bit, fixes indicate that it has generally turned northward with an initial motion of 350/9 kt. The track forecast remains straightforward, with very little spread among the models and their ensembles. Lorenzo is expected to be nudged north-northeastward and then northeastward starting in 36 hours by strong ridging building over the western Atlantic. The northeastward motion is expected to increase on day 3 when Lorenzo is picked up by a strong deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic and that acceleration is forecast to continue through day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast.

A little bit of west-southwesterly shear continues over Lorenzo, but it’s not strong enough to disrupt the circulation significantly. Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the intensity models. Extratropical transition is expected to have begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that process is not expected to be complete until day 5. Although Lorenzo’s winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast period.

Lorenzo’s wind field will remain large, and the hurricane-force wind radii are expected to grow in size during the next couple of days. In addition, large swells continue to radiate outward away from the hurricane and will reach much of the western and northern side of the Atlantic basin in a few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 22.5N  44.8W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  29/0000Z 23.8N  44.6W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  29/1200Z 25.6N  44.2W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 36H  30/0000Z 27.1N  43.7W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 48H  30/1200Z 28.8N  43.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 72H  01/1200Z 33.3N  39.3W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 96H  02/1200Z 40.5N  29.5W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
120H  03/1200Z 51.0N  16.5W   70 KT  80 MPH  -  Low (WSW Brest, France)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28, 2019

Lorenzo’s tilt has grown this morning. AMSR2 imagery at 0505 UTC showed a 20 n mi displacement between the low- and mid-level centers of the hurricane, a consequence of persistent westerly wind shear. Satellite-based intensity estimates vary greatly, from 77 to 110 kt, so the intensity is set to 100 kt as a compromise of all available data. Despite the decrease in Lorenzo’s maximum winds during the past 24 hours, earlier ASCAT-C data showed that its hurricane-force wind field has expanded, and now reaches up to 45 n mi to the northeast of the center.

The lower initial intensity resulted in a slightly lower intensity forecast through most of the period. The wind shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to continue, and a slow decrease in Lorenzo’s peak winds is still expected during the next several days. The official intensity forecast is very near the intensity consensus. Despite the expected decrease in intensity, the hurricane is not forecast to decrease in size, and in fact Lorenzo’s hurricane-force wind field could increase further by next week. Because of that, users are urged to not focus on the exact intensity of Lorenzo since the cyclone will likely remain a powerful storm well into next week. By 120 h, all of the global models indicate that Lorenzo will become post-tropical, and so does the NHC forecast.

The aforementioned microwave data was very helpful in identifying Lorenzo’s center location. The hurricane has continued to move left of the forecast track, and the initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. Despite Lorenzo’s recent tendency to move farther west than anticipated, the hurricane is still forecast to turn northward soon. After continuing northward and north-northeastward for a day or two, Lorenzo should accelerate toward the northeast ahead of a deep mid-latitude trough approaching from the west by mid-week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly left for the first 48 h to account for Lorenzo’s recent motion, but it is very similar to the previous forecast at 72 h and beyond. The models are in excellent agreement for the first 3 days of the forecast but the uncertainty grows by the end of the period, primarily due to differences in the forecast forward speed of the cyclone as it recurves and becomes post-tropical.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 21.4N  44.8W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  28/1800Z 22.7N  44.8W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 24H  29/0600Z 24.5N  44.7W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 36H  29/1800Z 26.0N  44.2W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 48H  30/0600Z 27.6N  43.5W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 72H  01/0600Z 31.5N  40.9W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 96H  02/0600Z 38.0N  32.5W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
120H  03/0600Z 48.0N  19.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Low (WSW Brest, France)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27, 2019

Lorenzo’s cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate this evening. A series of SSMI and GMI microwave overpasses revealed inner core erosion, particularly in the south portion. The images also showed significant south to north vertical tilt of the cyclone, indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear undercutting the impressive upper-tropospheric diffluent flow. A blend of all the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, as well as an earlier SATCON analysis, yields an initial intensity of 105 kt for this advisory.

Lorenzo will remain over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures for the next 3 days. Nonetheless, the stiff southwesterly shear should inhibit strengthening, although there is a slight chance of short-term fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles. Beyond the 72 hour period, Lorenzo is expected to encounter stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler waters, and undergo an extratropical transition as it interacts with a baroclinic zone moving over the central north Atlantic. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus and Florida State Superensemble intensity models.

The aforementioned microwave images also indicate that Lorenzo has been moving a little to the left of track, and the initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 335/8 kt. The song remains the same, no change in the track forecast philosophy. Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Around mid-period, Lorenzo is forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, in the mid-latitude westerly flow, in response to a deep-layer major shortwave trough approaching from the north-central Atlantic. The track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids.

The wind radii have been adjusted using 2308 UTC METOP-B scatterometer data. The forecast wind radii, beyond the 48 hour period, is based primarily on the RVCN global consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 20.8N  44.1W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  28/1200Z 21.9N  44.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  29/0000Z 23.7N  44.5W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  29/1200Z 25.4N  44.1W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  30/0000Z 27.0N  43.4W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 72H  01/0000Z 30.7N  41.3W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Los Llanos, Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 96H  02/0000Z 36.5N  34.6W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz Das Flores, Azores)
120H  03/0000Z 45.5N  22.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW La Rochelle, France)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27, 2019

The structure of Hurricane Lorenzo in conventional satellite imagery has decayed a little since the last advisory, with the eye becoming less distinct and the eyewall convection becoming more asymmetric. There is no current microwave imagery to show whether this weakening might be due to the start of an eyewall replacement cycle or not. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so the initial intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent cirrus outflow in all directions except to the southwest.

The initial motion is 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo is expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the previous track-based mainly on the initial position, and it lies near the various consensus models.

Lorenzo is currently passing over a tongue of slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, and it is forecast to reach slightly warmer water in 12-24 h. After that, it stays over sea surface temperatures near 28C through about 72 h. During this time, the intensity will be controlled mainly by internal eyewall replacement cycles and some ups and downs in the vertical shear as the hurricane interacts with a couple of upper-level troughs. The intensity guidance shows a slow weakening trend during this time, and the NHC intensity forecast follows this. However, it would not be surprising to see some fluctuations in intensity occur. After 72 h, the cyclone will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and move over much colder water. This, and the approach of the aforementioned deep-layer trough, will lead to extratropical transition that will be underway, but likely not complete, by 120 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 19.4N  42.9W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  28/0000Z 20.8N  43.6W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  28/1200Z 22.6N  44.1W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  29/0000Z 24.2N  44.0W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  29/1200Z 25.9N  43.4W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  30/1200Z 29.6N  41.2W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 96H  01/1200Z 34.5N  37.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz Das Flores, Azores)
120H  02/1200Z 42.5N  28.5W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Santa Cruz Das Flores, Azores)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26, 2019

Lorenzo has intensified even more this evening, with a clear eye characterized by warm temperatures of up to 17 degrees Celsius. The eye is now completely surrounded by a ring of convection with cold cloud tops less than minus 70 degrees Celsius. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB, as well as the objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT unanimously support increasing the initial intensity to 125 kt. Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with tropical-storm-force winds extending over 200 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle, and a cirrus cloud canopy that spans greater than a 10 degree latitude by 10 degree longitude area.

The initial motion is now north-northwest or 330/12 kt. Model guidance is in very good agreement throughout the 5 day period on the future track of Lorenzo. The hurricane will move through a break in the subtropical ridge currently to its northwest over the next couple of days, gradually turning to the north then northeast as it rounds the periphery of a ridge to its east. Late in the forecast period, Lorenzo will begin to accelerate as it gets caught in the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The model guidance made a slight shift to the left since the previous advisory, but since the same guidance shifted right earlier today, I did not want to make much of a change to the track. The official forecast track is very near the previous one, and is now on the right side of the consensus guidance.

The environment around Lorenzo is expected to change little over the next day or so. Both dynamical and statistical guidance are suggesting that the hurricane is nearing peak intensity. Therefore only fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected through about Friday night. Over the weekend, some moderate westerly shear ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough could begin to slowly weaken the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, the combination of strong upper-level southwesterly winds and cooler sea surface temperatures should cause a faster weakening trend. The official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and a little higher than most of the guidance through the first 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 17.6N  41.5W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  27/1200Z 19.1N  42.3W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  28/0000Z 21.0N  43.3W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  28/1200Z 22.7N  43.8W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  29/0000Z 24.4N  43.6W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  30/0000Z 27.8N  41.8W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 96H  01/0000Z 31.8N  39.0W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz Das Flores, Azores)
120H  02/0000Z 37.5N  33.2W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz Das Flores, Azores)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26, 2019

Hurricane Lorenzo has continued to intensify this afternoon, as the 20 n mi wide eye has become better defined and the cloud tops in the eyewall have gotten colder. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 115-125 kt range, so the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent outflow in all directions except to the west, where it is starting to interact with an upper-level trough.

The hurricane has turned toward the northwest since the last advisory, with the 12-h average motion now 310/10 kt and the shorter-term motion is even more toward the north. Lorenzo is approaching a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance models remain in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve through the break during the forecast period. After 24-36 h, the guidance has shifted a little more to the right and this part of the new track forecast has been nudged a little to the right.

Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4 days. This suggests that the current intensification should end soon as the actual intensity approaches or reaches those speeds. Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected during the 12-24 h period. The global models suggest that Lorenzo’s interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough should increase during recurvature, which should cause increased shear and a gradual weakening of the cyclone. As Lorenzo subsequently moves northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies, increased shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should lead to at least a continued slow weakening. The new intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast.

While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent times near there being Gabrielle of 1989.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 16.5N  40.8W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  27/0600Z 17.6N  41.9W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  27/1800Z 19.6N  43.0W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  28/0600Z 21.3N  43.6W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  28/1800Z 22.9N  43.8W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  29/1800Z 26.5N  42.3W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 96H  30/1800Z 30.5N  39.5W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz Das Flores, Azores)
120H  01/1800Z 35.5N  35.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz Das Flores, Azores)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26, 2019

Hurricane Lorenzo  – A review of microwave satellite imagery from last night suggests that Lorenzo underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, with the outer eyewall becoming predominant around 06Z-09Z. Around that time, the hurricane started to rapidly intensify, with the eye becoming much better defined in conventional satellite imagery. Raw Data-T numbers from both subjective and objective versions of the Dvorak Technique suggests that the maximum winds have increased to near 115 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial wind radii have been revised based on a recently received scatterometer overpass.

The initial motion is 295/11. Lorenzo is approaching a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance models are in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve through the break during the forecast period. There are no significant changes to the guidance since the last advisory, and there are no significant changes to the forecast track either.

Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4 days. This suggests that the rapid intensification should end in the next 6-12 h as the actual intensity approaches those speeds. Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected during the 12-36 h period. The global models suggest that Lorenzo will subsequently interact with an upper-level trough during recurvature, which should cause a period of increased shear and some weakening of the cyclone around 48 h. By 120 h, the hurricane should weaken due to movement over colder water and into strong shear in the mid-latitude westerlies.

While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent times near there being Gabrielle of 1989.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 15.4N  40.2W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  27/0000Z 16.7N  41.4W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  27/1200Z 18.5N  42.6W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  28/0000Z 20.2N  43.5W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  28/1200Z 21.9N  43.9W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  29/1200Z 25.2N  43.3W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 96H  30/1200Z 29.0N  41.0W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
120H  01/1200Z 34.0N  37.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz Das Flores, Azores)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26, 2019

Hurricane Lorenzo –  Shortly after the issuance of the 0900 UTC advisory, Lorenzo’s eye quickly and drastically became more apparent in conventional satellite imagery. The slightly ragged but clearing eye of the hurricane is surrounded by very cold cloud tops, and it has become clear that Lorenzo is rapidly intensifying. A 0900 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification of 6.0/6.0 (115 kt) was used as the primary basis for increasing the intensity of Lorenzo. Because objective fixes from just a few hours ago were much lower, the intensity of the hurricane has been increased, perhaps conservatively, to 110 kt. Since this is 10 kt above the previous 12-h forecast, a special advisory is required to update the intensity forecast.

Additional strengthening is possible later today. Earlier intensity guidance indicated that Lorenzo’s intensity should level off in a day or so, though none of the guidance correctly anticipated the rate at which the hurricane has strengthened this morning. Now that the hurricane has a closed eyewall, fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible, though this is not explicitly reflected in the updated forecast. By the end of the forecast period, the updated NHC forecast is relaxed to the original forecast and shows some gradual weakening. Further adjustments, especially at 72 h and beyond, may be required later this morning.

No changes were made to the track forecast, which is based on the previous regular advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1000Z 15.2N  39.3W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  26/1800Z 16.0N  40.6W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  27/0600Z 17.7N  41.9W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  27/1800Z 19.5N  43.0W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  28/0600Z 21.2N  43.8W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  29/0600Z 24.6N  43.5W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 96H  30/0600Z 28.0N  42.0W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Santa Cruz Das Flores, Azores)
120H  01/0600Z 33.0N  38.0W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Santa Cruz Das Flores, Azores)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25, 2019

Hurricane Lorenzo  – A small eye has been intermittently appearing in infrared satellite imagery over the past few hours, and a recent WINDSAT microwave overpass showed that the inner-core of Lorenzo is trying to consolidate. There is still some dry air wrapping in toward the center of circulation as seen in an SSMIS overpass at 2020 UTC. This could be the reason why the hurricane has not been able to develop a well-defined eye as of yet. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass this evening showed a still expanding wind field associated with Lorenzo, and the 50-kt winds now extend up to 90 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle. A blend of the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory.

Based on the improving inner-core structure, large central dense overcast, and an expanding cirrus shield around the hurricane, it is believed that the dry air that has been entrained near the center will mix out soon. This should allow for the eyewall to completely develop and Lorenzo should reach major hurricane intensity within the next 24 hours. Lorenzo will continue over warm waters and in a light shear environment during the next couple of days, which should allow for some additional strengthening. By 72 hours, increasing shear due to west to southwest winds aloft ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to weaken the hurricane. The official intensity forecast is very near the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance through 72 hours.

Lorenzo is moving west-northwest at 13 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on a break developing in the ridge between 45W-50W in the next couple of days, which should result in a turn to the northwest. From day 3-5, the cyclone is expected to turn north then northeast around the periphery of the mid-level ridge to its east. The official forecast was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one starting at 36 h and is on the left side of tightly clustered consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 14.7N  38.1W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  26/1200Z 15.2N  39.6W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  27/0000Z 16.8N  41.2W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  27/1200Z 18.5N  42.3W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  28/0000Z 20.4N  43.3W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  29/0000Z 23.8N  43.9W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 96H  30/0000Z 27.5N  42.4W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Ponta Delgada, Azores)
120H  01/0000Z 31.9N  39.1W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Ponta Delgada, Azores)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25, 2019

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger while a large complex of outer bands continues in the southeastern semicircle. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus intensity estimate. The hurricane still shows good cirrus outflow in all directions, and it still appears some dry air is entraining into the system in the northwestern quadrant.

The initial motion is now 285/16. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west-northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. Since the last advisory, the track guidance has shifted a little to the right after 36 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, but after 36 h it now lies a little to the left of the center of the guidance envelope.

Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear environment during the next three days, with the only negative factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air. The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening for the next 36 h or so, but the chances of rapid intensification in the various statistical indices have gone down since the previous advisory. The new intensity forecast will call for 36 more hours of intensification, and it continues to lie near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast follows the general trend of the guidance in showing little change in strength between 36-96 h, although fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After that time, Lorenzo is likely to encounter southwesterly shear, and thus some weakening is forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 14.5N  36.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  26/0600Z 15.0N  38.7W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  26/1800Z 16.1N  40.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  27/0600Z 17.7N  41.8W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  27/1800Z 19.5N  43.0W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  28/1800Z 23.0N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 96H  29/1800Z 26.5N  43.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
120H  30/1800Z 31.0N  40.5W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (Santa Cruz Das Flores, Portugal)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25, 2019

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with a small central convective feature surrounded by a large complex of outer bands in all quadrants except for the northwest, where some dry air may be entraining. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMMS satellite consensus technique have increased to near 75 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The hurricane currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is 285/15. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west-northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. While the guidance agrees with this scenario, there is some spread on the longitude of the recurvature between the easternmost GFS model and the westernmost ECMWF model. The new forecast lies between these models in the best overall agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus guidance.

Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear the environment during the next three days, with the only negative factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air. The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening, with rapid strengthening possible during the first 24-36 h. The new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast, and for the first 36-48 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength between 36-72 h, although some fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After 72 h, Lorenzo is likely to encounter some southwesterly shear, and thus some weakening is forecast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 14.1N  35.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  26/0000Z 14.4N  37.1W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  26/1200Z 15.3N  39.2W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  27/0000Z 16.7N  40.8W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  27/1200Z 18.4N  42.2W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  28/1200Z 21.9N  44.2W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)
 96H  29/1200Z 25.0N  44.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)
120H  30/1200Z 29.0N  42.0W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25, 2019

Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity near the center of Lorenzo during the past several hours. There have been no good microwave passes over the cyclone since yesterday, however, a partial SSMIS pass showed hints that a mid-level eye is forming. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. Lorenzo is the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification probability models both show that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Lorenzo will strengthen by 25 kt or more during the next 24 hours. The large size of the cyclone appears to be the only obvious inhibiting factor to rapid intensification since the environment is otherwise quite favorable for continued strengthening. The NHC forecast now shows Lorenzo becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours, faster than previously anticipated. By 72 h and beyond, most of the guidance keeps Lorenzo in a nearly steady-state. In reality, most strong hurricanes have some short-term fluctuations in intensity, but such fluctuations are nearly impossible to forecast this far out in time. Regardless of its exact intensity, confidence is high that Lorenzo will be a large and powerful hurricane over the eastern and central Atlantic through the rest of this week.

No changes of significance were made to the track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to move west-northwestward for the next day or so, before turning northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A turn toward the north is anticipated by the end of the forecast period. The models are still in fairly good agreement on the track of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast is between the consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 13.6N  33.9W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  25/1800Z 14.0N  36.0W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  26/0600Z 14.7N  38.4W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  26/1800Z 15.9N  40.2W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  27/0600Z 17.5N  41.6W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)
 72H  28/0600Z 21.1N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)
 96H  29/0600Z 24.0N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)
120H  30/0600Z 27.4N  43.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24, 2019

Over the past several hours, deep convection has increased in coverage and intensity near Lorenzo’s center, with cloud tops now as cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Some modest northwesterly shear impacted the cyclone starting early today and lasted through this evening, but now Lorenzo seems to be overcoming the shear. The initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt and this is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Recent scatterometer passes show that the wind radii have continued to expand, with tropical-storm-force winds now reaching up to 180 n mi from the center.

Lorenzo is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge. A break in the ridge is forecast to develop between 40-50W in a few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn to the northwest. By late in the forecast period, Lorenzo will turn to the north as it rounds the western periphery of the ridge. This forecast track scenario is in very good agreement with the numerical models, and little change was made from the previous official forecast.

The shear that has been occurring over Lorenzo is expected to decrease through Wednesday, and based on the current convective trend, strengthening appears likely over the next couple of days. Dynamical and statistical models are in good agreement on bringing Lorenzo to hurricane intensity by Wednesday morning, and then continuing some gradual strengthening through 72 hours. After that time, the dynamical model intensity forecasts diverge from the statistical model forecasts. SHIPS and LGEM suggest that Lorenzo will reach its peak intensity in about 3 or 4 days, and weakening is possible by day 5. The dynamical models disagree with this scenario, and the consensus of those models makes Lorenzo a major hurricane in about 72 hours, with additional strengthening possible through the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is more in line with the dynamical guidance, although it is not as high as some of those solutions late in the period. Due to the divergence in model intensity forecasts beyond 72 hours, the confidence in the official forecast at that time is not high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 13.2N  32.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  25/1200Z 13.6N  34.4W   70 KT  80 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  26/0000Z 14.2N  37.0W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  26/1200Z 15.1N  39.1W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  27/0000Z 16.4N  40.9W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  28/0000Z 19.9N  43.6W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)
 96H  29/0000Z 23.0N  45.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)
120H  30/0000Z 26.0N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24, 2019

It appears that there’s been just enough westerly shear over Lorenzo to disrupt the inner core and keep the storm from strengthening through the day. The CDO is slightly offset from the low-level center and prominent convective banding is mostly within the southeastern semicircle. Subjective intensity estimates remain T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective numbers have come up slightly to around 60 kt. However, since the morning scatterometer data was running about 10 kt lower than the satellite estimates, and the overall structure has not changed appreciably, the initial intensity will remain 55 kt.

A mid-level high centered west of Madeira and the Canary Islands continues to drive Lorenzo quickly westward, or 285/15 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast thinking. A break in the ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to cause Lorenzo to begin recurving in about 48 hours, with the system ultimately moving northward by the end of the foreast period. The updated NHC forecast has only been nudged westward, but this is mainly due to the slightly faster initial forward motion. Otherwise, the spread in the guidance is still bounded by the GFS on the right and the ECMWF on the left, which is mirrored by those models’ respective ensemble members. The official forecast hedges toward the western side of the guidance, roughly between the HCCA model and the other consensus aids.

Global model guidance suggests that the westerly shear over Lorenzo should abate during the next 24 hours, allowing another intensification phase to begin. Whether or not rapid intensification occurs is difficult to know at this point until it becomes clearer if the cyclone can develop a well-defined inner core. The intensity guidance has decreased further on this cycle, but this is largely due to the hiatus in the strengthening trend during the day. There’s still plenty of time for more strengthening to occur, so out of an abundance of caution, I did not lower the forecast peak intensities that have been shown in the previous few advisories. As such, the official forecast lies above nearly all the guidance during the first 2-3 days, and then is close to the HWRF and HCCA on days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 12.8N  31.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  25/0600Z 13.2N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  25/1800Z 13.8N  35.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  26/0600Z 14.5N  38.1W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  26/1800Z 15.6N  40.0W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  27/1800Z 18.8N  42.9W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)
 96H  28/1800Z 21.9N  45.1W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)
120H  29/1800Z 24.9N  45.3W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24, 2019

Lorenzo’s structure has not changed much during the morning. A small central dense overcast continues over the center with multiple curved bands within the circulation. A recent ASCAT pass showed winds just over 45 kt to the north of the center, but given sampling considerations, the initial intensity remains 55 kt, which matches Dvorak classifications provided by TAFB and SAB.

Despite the brief interruption in the strengthening trend, sufficiently warm waters, low shear, and an ambient moist air mass should foster intensification during the next several days. Because Lorenzo has not strengthened further since the previous advisory, the persistence factor has caused the Rapid Intensification (RI) Index (a 25-kt increase in 24 hours) to drop from 53 percent to 23 percent.

In addition, the overall guidance envelope is showing slightly lower peak intensities in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper edge of the guidance for much of the forecast period, lying closest to the HWRF and the Florida State Superensemble. RI is still a possibility, but as of yet we have not observed a low-level cyan ring in 37-GHz microwave imagery, which is usually a harbinger of an RI episode.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 285/14 kt. Lorenzo is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from Morocco and Madeira Island westward to 40W. Ridging is relatively non-existent west of 40W due to a mid-/upper-level low over the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Jerry over the western Atlantic. With this pattern in place, Lorenzo is expected begin recurving around the ridge axis over the central Atlantic on days 3-5. During that period, the track guidance envelope is bracketed by the easternmost GFS and westernmost ECMWF models, which are about 350 nm apart on day 5. This spread isn’t too significant, and the updated NHC track forecast is only shifted slightly eastward from the previous one, very close to the two corrected consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 12.4N  29.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  25/0000Z 12.9N  31.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  25/1200Z 13.6N  34.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  26/0000Z 14.2N  36.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  26/1200Z 15.0N  38.8W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  27/1200Z 18.0N  41.9W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 96H  28/1200Z 21.1N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
120H  29/1200Z 23.9N  45.3W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW St.George's Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23, 2019

Lorenzo is steadily getting better organized. Visible imagery before sunset showed that the tropical storm has developed extensive banding that wraps about 3/4 of the way around the circulation. An 1836 SSMIS overpass also shows this banding but indicated that the tropical storm has not developed a tight inner core. Satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 47 kt, and the intensity of the system has been increased to 40 kt.

All indications are that Lorenzo is in a favorable environment for strengthening, and all of the guidance continues to forecast that it will become a hurricane during the next few days, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 45 percent chance of a 25 kt or greater increase in Lorenzo’s winds during the next 24 hours. Since the tropical storm doesn’t have a tight inner-core yet, the NHC forecast isn’t quite as bullish, but still shows steady strengthening, and Lorenzo could become a major hurricane later this week.

The tropical storm is moving steadily westward with an initial motion of 275/14. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous one, and no substantial changes were made. Lorenzo will likely move generally westward to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed for the next few days, before turning northwestward over the weekend. The global models are in very good agreement on this scenario but do differ on how soon Lorenzo will turn northwestward. The NHC forecast is based primarily on HCCA, and is on the left side of the guidance envelope. This is also closer to the ECMWF and UKMET forecasts which delay the start of Lorenzo’s recurvature a little more than the GFS and its derived models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 11.3N  25.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  24/0600Z 11.7N  27.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  24/1800Z 12.4N  30.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  25/0600Z 13.1N  33.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  25/1800Z 13.6N  35.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  26/1800Z 15.4N  40.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 96H  27/1800Z 18.3N  43.8W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Philipsburg, Sint Maarten)
120H  28/1800Z 21.5N  46.5W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Philipsburg, Sint Maarten)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23, 2019

The system has been designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB classification was a little higher.

Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is located within a generally favorable environment for intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast.

The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the location of Lorenzo’s center and its forward speed. The cyclone has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt.  The very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to be steered generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is based heavily on HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 11.1N  24.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 12H  24/0000Z 11.5N  26.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 24H  24/1200Z 12.0N  28.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 36H  25/0000Z 12.5N  31.6W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 48H  25/1200Z 13.1N  34.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW São Filipe, Cape Verde)
 72H  26/1200Z 14.6N  39.4W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Codrington, Barbuda)
 96H  27/1200Z 17.1N  43.5W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Codrington, Barbuda)
120H  28/1200Z 20.5N  47.0W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Codrington, Barbuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 22, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Karen, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with a low-pressure system located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Continued development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Monday while the disturbance moves generally westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands as it passes to the south of the area on Monday and early Tuesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 22, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Karen, located just west of the southern Windward Islands.

Satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure has formed in association with a strong tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic. The associated thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next day or two.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 22, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Karen located near the southern Windward Islands.

Satellite images show that the thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave that has moved off the west coast of Africa this morning is quickly becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo Verde Island should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Updated for the low-pressure area near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa overnight and on Sunday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 21, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa overnight and on Sunday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 21, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 20, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jerry, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 19, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, and on recently upgraded Hurricane Jerry, located

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development thereafter and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 19, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some development of this system is possible while the system approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 18, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located a little more than a hundred miles west of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some development of this system is possible while the system approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 18, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located a few hundred miles west of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some development of this system is possible over the weekend while the system approaches the Windward Islands or across the southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

If this storm system is named. it will become Tropical Storm Lorenzo.

Article Resources:

Recent Tropical Cruise Weather:

Video: Hurricane Lorenzo in Azores.

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