Tropical Storm Karen

Tropical Depression Karen Track 1100 Hours September 27 2019
Tropical Depression Karen Track 1100 Hours September 27 2019

Tropical Storm Karen Satellite 2300 Hours September 25 2019Tropical Storm Karen – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27, 2019

Corrected status to dissipated at 72 hours

Karen’s (see Friday video below) associated convection is becoming increasingly disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry. A partial ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of the circulation and the initial intensity is therefore lowered, probably still generously, to 30 kt.

Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. The shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to weakening and further loss of organization. Based on the latest global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours and then open up into a trough by day 3. Given the cyclone’s current structure, however, it’s entirely possible that either of these options could occur as soon as later today.

The initial motion is east-northeastward or 065/7 kt. As it becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the western Atlantic. This forecast scenario remains consistent with the reasoning from previous NHC advisories.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 28.8N  59.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 12H  28/0000Z 29.0N  59.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 24H  28/1200Z 29.1N  59.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 36H  29/0000Z 29.3N  60.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 48H  29/1200Z 29.3N  62.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26, 2019

The center of the circulation of Karen moved near or over the NOAA buoy 41049 where a wind shift and a very modest drop in pressure occurred. Currently, the winds are decreasing and pressures are rising at the buoy. The data from the buoy and recent satellite imagery continue to indicate that the circulation remains elongated with the low-level center located on the eastern edge of a convective mass. However, some curved rainbands are developing on the eastern portion of the circulation as we speak. T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 2.5 on the Dvorak scale and support a generous initial intensity of 35 kt. A very recent partial ASCAT pass measured winds of only 30 kt, but the swath did not cover the area where the plane measured stronger winds earlier today.

In about a day, the upper-level environment will become increasingly hostile with the development of northwesterly shear, and thereafter, the shear will become even stronger from the southwest. With this anticipated upper-level wind pattern, Karen should weaken and become devoid of deep convection in 36 hours or so and degenerate into a remnant low.

Karen has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 7 kt. The steering flow is forecast to change in 24 hours as a ridge builds to the north of Karen, and the cyclone, or most likely its remnants, should begin to move slowly westward. The system is anticipated to degenerate into a westward-moving trough in 3 days or so as forecast by global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 27.8N  62.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 12H  27/1200Z 28.3N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 24H  28/0000Z 28.5N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 36H  28/1200Z 28.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 48H  29/0000Z 28.3N  61.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  30/0000Z 28.0N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26, 2019

Tropical Storm Karen  – Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049 indicate that Karen’s circulation is becoming increasingly elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The deterioration of Karen’s structure suggests that weakening is imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models–via their simulated infrared satellite fields–are unanimous in showing Karen losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by day 5.

Fixes suggest that Karen is slowing down a bit and turning to the right, with an initial motion of 025/10 kt. The steering flow will be evolving over the next couple of days with the high-pressure building to the north of Karen over the western Atlantic. This will cause the cyclone to almost come to a stop in about 36 hours, and then turn to the west by 48 hours until dissipation on day 5. This is the same forecast reasoning as before and the new NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 27.2N  62.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 12H  27/0600Z 27.9N  61.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 24H  27/1800Z 28.2N  60.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 36H  28/0600Z 28.1N  60.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 48H  28/1800Z 28.0N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  29/1800Z 27.9N  63.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  30/1800Z 27.9N  66.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26, 2019

Karen has been maintaining a cluster of convection to the west of its center, but visible satellite images and wind data from NOAA buoy 40149 to the northeast suggest that the low-level circulation is becoming elongated. This structure has been confirmed by a late-arriving ASCAT pass, and that data also show that Karen is producing winds to 40 kt within the deep convection.

Karen is embedded in the flow between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low which is slowly retrograding westward over the Bahamas. This is maintaining a north-northeastward motion of 015/12 kt. The central Atlantic high is expected to weaken over the next 2 days, while a new high develops over the western Atlantic, causing Karen to make a clockwise loop well to the southeast of Bermuda. Once the western Atlantic high becomes established, Karen is then expected to move generally westward on days 3 through 5. There have been no significant changes among the track models, and the new NHC track forecast is therefore very similar to the previous one.

Relatively light winds aloft and warm ocean waters could allow Karen to maintain its intensity for another day or two. After that time, however, an increase in northerly shear will likely allow ambient dry air to infiltrate into the circulation further. The dynamical models–which we’re now heavily favoring in our forecasts–are showing gradual weakening and even a loss of organized deep convection in a few days. Therefore, Karen is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 3. The low is expected to plow into strong southwesterly shear on days 4 and 5 while it moves westward over the southwestern Atlantic, which should keep it as a remnant low or possibly cause it to open up into a trough of low pressure.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 26.6N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 12H  27/0000Z 27.6N  62.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 24H  27/1200Z 28.1N  61.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 36H  28/0000Z 28.0N  60.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 48H  28/1200Z 27.8N  60.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  29/1200Z 27.3N  63.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  30/1200Z 27.1N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
120H  01/1200Z 27.0N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26, 2019

Karen is barely a tropical storm. A pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago showed maximum winds between 30 and 35 kt in the southeastern quadrant of the storm. Those passes also indicate that the circulation is quite broad and weak on the west side. Based on the ASCAT data and the TAFB Dvorak classification, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm appears quite disheveled in satellite images, with an elongated east to west convective pattern and a lack of well-defined banding features.

Karen has not been able to take advantage of the relatively favorable environment that it has been in during the past day or so, which was well anticipated by the dynamical models but poorly forecast by the statistical-dynamical aids. The storm will remain in generally favorable conditions through tonight, so it should be able to maintain its intensity or perhaps strengthen slightly during that time. After that, however, the models show a steady increase in shear and drier air in the vicinity of the cyclone. These conditions should cause weakening and will likely lead to the system either losing its deep convection and becoming a remnant low or dissipating entirely in 3 or 4 days when it moves into a region of strong westerly shear. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and leans more on the GFS and ECMWF guidance.

The tropical storm is still moving north-northeastward at 13 kt steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level low to its west over the Bahamas. The low is expected to weaken and lift out during the next few days allowing a low- to mid-level ridge to strengthen and build to the north of Karen. This change in the steering flow should cause Karen, or its remnants, to move slower to the northeast and east through Friday, followed by a motion to the west-southwest this weekend. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies closest to the HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 25.5N  63.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 12H  26/1800Z 27.0N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 24H  27/0600Z 27.9N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 36H  27/1800Z 28.0N  60.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 48H  28/0600Z 27.9N  60.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  29/0600Z 27.3N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  30/0600Z 27.0N  65.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW St George's, Bermuda)
120H  01/0600Z 26.8N  67.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25, 2019

Karen’s cloud pattern is basically shapeless and consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located at the northern end of a curved-convective band. Dvorak T-numbers barely support 35 kt, but it is assumed that a few spots of tropical storm-force-wind are still occurring in the southeast quadrant.

Karen has had enough time to strengthen, and it is doubtful that it will do it in the future. The cyclone is heading toward an unfavorable environment and each consecutive run of the global models show a weaker and weaker cyclone. My predecessor wisely stated in the advisory “it is time to put more weight in the global models” and I will do so in this one. On this basis, the NHC forecast no longer calls for strengthening and maintains Karen generously with 35 kt for the next 2 days or so. It also calls for weakening thereafter. Karen is forecast to be a remnant low in about 4 days but is very likely that this could occur much sooner.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northeast or 015 degrees at 13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow between a mid-level trough over the Bahamas and a subtropical ridge to the east. In two days, the steering flow is expected to collapse, and Karen will likely meander for a day or so. A ridge will then build to the north, and since Karen will be weak and shallow, the cyclone or its remnants will move westward, steered by the trade winds south of the ridge and toward very hostile upper-level winds.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 24.4N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 12H  26/1200Z 26.0N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 24H  27/0000Z 27.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 36H  27/1200Z 28.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 48H  28/0000Z 28.3N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  29/0000Z 27.5N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  30/0000Z 26.6N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
120H  01/0000Z 26.5N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (ESE St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25, 2019

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Karen found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR-measured winds of 34 kt. Although those surface winds were coincident with some heavy rains, which makes them questionable, it is assumed that there are still some tropical-storm-force winds somewhere within the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt.

Karen has turned toward the north-northeast with an initial motion of 015/12 kt. The cyclone is positioned between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low spinning just east of the Bahamas. The steering flow between these two features should keep Karen on a generally northeastward trajectory during the next 48 hours. Around that time, a blocking ridge is expected to build to the north of Karen, causing it to make a clockwise loop and move west-southwestward by days 4 and 5. Compared to the previous cycle, the track models are allowing Karen to get farther to the northeast before it makes its loop, which ends up slowing down the 4- and 5-day NHC forecast points. Even with that change, however, the forecast path of Karen is relatively unchanged from before.

It’s probably time to put more weight on the dynamical models for Karen’s future intensity. The cyclone has continued to struggle in its environment, which is essentially what those models have been indicating all along. Even the statistical-dynamical models, which are explicitly showing strengthening, indicate that the environment won’t be very favorable, with convergence aloft and a dry mid-level air mass. Because of those factors, and the lower initial intensity, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered considerably from this morning’s forecast. It still allows for the possibility of some strengthening, but if model trends continue, the official forecast could be lowered further in subsequent advisories. And if the global models are correct, Karen could even lose deep convection, and hence become post-tropical, in about 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 22.9N  64.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 12H  26/0600Z 24.6N  63.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 24H  26/1800Z 26.5N  63.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 36H  27/0600Z 27.6N  61.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 48H  27/1800Z 27.9N  60.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  28/1800Z 27.5N  60.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  29/1800Z 26.5N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
120H  30/1800Z 26.0N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25, 2019

Karen is still having a tough time establishing and maintaining a well-organized structure. The deep convection which developed over the center earlier this morning has since collapsed, leaving a ragged and disorganized cloud pattern. In addition, a sizable outflow boundary moving away from the eastern part of the circulation suggests that there is dry air within the vortex. The initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, pending possible scatterometer data later this morning and a reconnaissance flight this afternoon.

The initial position is a little difficult to locate, but the best estimate of the current motion is 360/13 kt. Karen is moving northward between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low located just east of The Bahamas. This low is expected to slowly retrograde westward, with ridging developing over the western Atlantic by day 3. This change in the steering will cause Karen to turn northeastward during the next 48 hours but then make a clockwise loop once it is blocked by the ridge. After day 3, the ridge should force Karen to move west-southwestward. Most of the track models agree on this general scenario. There is some latitudinal spread on days 4 and 5 after the loop occurs, with the HWRF being the most notable outlier by not showing much of a westward motion. The consensus aids, however, have remained fairly steady, and therefore there was no compelling reason to make any significant changes compared to the previous track forecast.

Except for the possibility of dry air in the circulation, it’s not quite evident why Karen has not been able to sustain the organization. Still, the cyclone is expected to move beneath an upper-level anticyclone during the next 24-48 hours, and if the shear does indeed decrease, then some strengthening would be expected. There continues to be a dichotomy among the intensity models, with the dynamical models (including the GFS and ECMWF) keeping the cyclone weak while the statistical-dynamical models still show intensification through days 4 and 5. It’s difficult to ignore what’s being shown by the global models, since there must be something in the environment that they’re deeming to be negative for continued strengthening. The best course of action at this point is to maintain a steady intensity after 48 hours, but it should be noted that what is shown in the official forecast still lies above the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Karen will continue to produce heavy rainfall, potentially causing additional flash floods and mudslides, across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 21.7N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 12H  26/0000Z 23.4N  64.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 24H  26/1200Z 25.4N  63.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 36H  27/0000Z 26.9N  62.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 48H  27/1200Z 27.5N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  28/1200Z 26.8N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  29/1200Z 26.0N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25, 2019

Karen’s convection has increased significantly and become better organized since the previous advisory. The well-defined low-level circulation center that previously had been fully exposed now has intense convection with cloud tops of -85C to -90C almost completely encircling the center at times. During the last leg of an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, an 850-mb flight-level wind of 46 kt and SFMR surface winds of 37 kt were observed in the southeastern quadrant, suggesting that Karen may have weakened slightly during an earlier convective hiatus. However, the recent increase in deep convection over the center, along with a pronounced increase in the Doppler velocities and the development of a smaller radius of maximum winds of less than 10 nmi above 20,000 ft, suggest that Karen has likely strengthened. For now, however, the intensity is being maintained at 40 kt. The secondary mid-level circulation that had developed north of Puerto Rico several hours ago has since weakened based on San Juan Doppler radar data and satellite images.

Now that deep convection has redeveloped, resulting in a stronger and deeper the vortex column, the motion has steadied off in a northerly direction of 360/12 kt over the past 6 hours. A northward motion is forecast to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast by this afternoon. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected in the 12-48 hour period. By 72 hours, steering currents are forecast to collapse and Karen is expected to stall or make a clockwise loop. By 96 and beyond, the global models forecast that a ridge will build eastward from the southeastern United States to Bermuda, forcing Karen in a slow westward to the west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus track model TVCN, which is about midway between the corrected-consensus models FSSE located to the north and NOAA-HCCA to the south.

The intensity forecast remains somewhat perplexing with the dynamical global and regional models showing no strengthening for the next 4 days, followed by weakening and even dissipation by day 5, whereas the GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models show slow but steady strengthening during the forecast period with Karen becoming a hurricane by 120 hours. The main reasons for global models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts, which is a little above the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Karen will continue to produce rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides across Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 20.5N  65.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 12H  25/1800Z 22.3N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 24H  26/0600Z 24.5N  63.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 36H  26/1800Z 26.4N  63.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 48H  27/0600Z 27.3N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  28/0600Z 27.1N  61.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  29/0600Z 26.3N  64.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
120H  30/0600Z 25.9N  67.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24, 2019

During the afternoon and early evening hours, satellite images indicated that the cloud pattern associated with Karen was becoming a little better organized. Then, surface observations from the area just east of Puerto Rico indicated that the pressures were falling, and a center was apparently becoming better defined. The presence of this center was confirmed by a reconnaissance plane which was able to fix a tight small circulation of about 1002 or 1003 mb. This, by no means, indicates that the overall circulation of the cyclone is well organized. Winds are still swirly on the western portion of the circulation and are responding to an elongated trough of low-pressure north of Puerto Rico. In fact, I would not be surprised if another center reforms father to west within the trough or the large cyclonic envelope, and the center we are tracking dissipates. In any case, preliminary analysis indicates that the center of Karen that we were tracking moved very near or over Vieques around 2100 UTC and then over Culebra a little bit later. This small center could also have been a meso-vortex within the larger circulation.

Data from the reconnaissance plane and satellite intensity estimates yield an initial intensity of 40 kt. These winds are occurring primarily to the southeast of the center. Karen is heading toward a shear environment that is not ideal at all for significant intensification. As previously indicated, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest increase in intensity during the next 3 to 5 days as indicated by the HCCA model. However, some of the statistical guidance brings Karen to hurricane status by the end of the forecast period.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Karen is moving toward the north-northeast or 015 degrees at 12 kt. This motion however, is highly uncertain because it includes the reformation of the center. The circulation of Karen is trapped between a subtropical high over the Atlantic and a mid-level trough over the Bahamas. This flow pattern will continue to steer Karen in this same general direction for the next 3 days. After that time, the steering flow is forecast to collapse, and Karen, if it is still a cyclone, will begin to meander. This would allow another ridge to develop north of the cyclone and force it to move westward. This is the solution provided by most of the global models.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Karen will continue to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands into Wednesday even as the center moves away from the region.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 19.1N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Hans Lollik Island, USVI)
 12H  25/1200Z 20.8N  64.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 24H  26/0000Z 23.2N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 36H  26/1200Z 25.5N  63.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St George's, Bermuda)
 48H  27/0000Z 27.0N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  28/0000Z 26.8N  61.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  29/0000Z 26.5N  61.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
120H  30/0000Z 26.0N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24, 2019

The satellite appearance of Karen has improved over the past several hours, with a large convective band wrapped about halfway around the center in the western semicircle and an outer band in the southeastern semicircle. However, surface observations, Doppler radar data, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low-level circulation is elongated from south to north and that multiple vorticity centers are present. The lowest pressures and the strongest winds are at the southern end of the elongation near the eastern end of the convective band, and this is the center used for this advisory. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 53 kt flight-level winds at 850 mb and data suggesting a central pressure near 1005 mb, so the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion is again 360/7, with some uncertainty due to the multiple vorticity centers and an apparent re-formation of the center closer to the convection between 15Z-18Z. Karen remains in a complex steering environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north- northwest, and a large mid- to upper-level trough extending from near Jerry to eastern Cuba. These weather systems should steer Karen generally north-northeastward for the next couple of days. This motion should bring the center of Karen near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and then into the open Atlantic tonight. During the 72-120 h period, the large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge to build near Karen, which will significantly slow its forward motion. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement that this ridge will cause Karen to turn westward near the end of the forecast period, although there remains a lot of uncertainty about when and how fast. The new forecast track keeps Karen a little farther south before this turn occurs, and thus the 120-h position is a little to the south of the previous forecast.

Karen is moving into an area of weaker shear, and should remain in that environment for the next 2-3 days. Thus, strengthening is expected, with the main limiting factor being the current poor organization of the circulation. From 72-120 h, the storm is expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea surface temperature environment. In addition, several of the global models suggest that another round of shear could affect Karen near the 120 h point. If this occurs, the cyclone could end up weaker than forecast in this advisory. The new intensity forecast has minor changes from the previous forecast, and it again lies between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger statistical-dynamical models.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 18.0N  65.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE El Negro, Puerto Rico)
 12H  25/0600Z 19.6N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 24H  25/1800Z 21.9N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 36H  26/0600Z 24.2N  64.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 48H  26/1800Z 25.9N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  27/1800Z 27.2N  61.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  28/1800Z 27.0N  62.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
120H  29/1800Z 26.5N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24, 2019

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that there has been little change in either the structure or the intensity of Karen since the last advisory. The broad and elongated low-level center is located to the north of the strong convection, and the aircraft has reported a central pressure of 1007 mb and maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 35 kt south of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 360/7. Karen is in a complex steering environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north-northwest, and a large mid- to upper-level trough extending from near Jerry to eastern Cuba. These weather systems should steer Karen generally northward today, followed by a north-northeastward motion that should continue for a couple of days. This motion should bring the center of Karen near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon, then into the open Atlantic tonight. During the 72-120 h period, the large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge to build near Karen, which will significantly slow its forward motion. The new forecast track will continue the trend of the previous forecast and the ECMWF model in showing the ridge building enough to turn Karen west-southwestward by 120 h. However, other models suggest a looping motion or little motion during the 96-120 h, and this part of the forecast track is quite uncertain.

The large-scale models forecast the shear that has been affecting Karen to diminish during the next couple of days, which should allow the cyclone to gradually strengthen. From 72-120 h, the storm is expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea surface temperature environment. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger statistical-dynamical models.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 17.5N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Guayama, Puerto Rico)
 12H  25/0000Z 19.1N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 24H  25/1200Z 21.3N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 36H  26/0000Z 23.6N  64.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 48H  26/1200Z 25.5N  63.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 72H  27/1200Z 27.8N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  28/1200Z 28.0N  62.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)
120H  29/1200Z 27.5N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23, 2019

Karen has become increasingly disorganized today. Visible satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that there is a broad low-level circulation, but the aircraft struggled to find a well-defined center. Based on the current lack of organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. The environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain quite hostile, with dry mid-level air and strong northeasterly shear continuing overnight. After Karen moves north of Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic, it may find itself in a more favorable upper-level environment, but given the current structure of the cyclone, it should take some time for any potential re-strengthening to occur. As a result, the long-range intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory and remains of very low confidence.

Karen is moving northwestward or 335/11 kt. Karen should turn northward later tonight or early Tuesday toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Jerry. A northward to north-northeast motion should then take the storm over the western Atlantic well to the east of the Bahamas around mid-week. After that time, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and far western Atlantic, which should cause Karen to slow down and become nearly stationary at days 4 and 5. The track guidance has trended toward Karen gaining more latitude before slowing, and the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The latter portion of the track forecast is still quite uncertain as the dynamical model guidance and their ensembles still exhibit large spread.

Although Karen in shown to remain a tropical depression as it passed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the tropical storm warning is begin maintained since only a small increase in the wind speed would make Karen a tropical storm again. In addition, windward facing areas at high elevation on the islands could experience winds higher than those shown in the official forecast.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Regardless of Karen’s status and intensity, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and the British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 15.9N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Ponce, Puero Rico)
 12H  24/0600Z 17.2N  66.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW  San Juan, Puerto Rico )
 24H  24/1800Z 18.9N  66.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 36H  25/0600Z 21.3N  66.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 48H  25/1800Z 23.3N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 72H  26/1800Z 26.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  27/1800Z 27.5N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St George's, Bermuda)
120H  28/1800Z 27.5N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23, 2019

Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen has had difficulty finding a closed surface circulation. It is possible that a center reformation will occur near the new convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of 30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still supports an initial intensity of 35 kt.

Given the current structure of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already. Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall over those areas. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the intensity forecast is low.

The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt. Despite the overall lack of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Tropical Storm Jerry to its north. After 72 hours, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and western Atlantic which should slow Karen’s northward progress and could cause the system to essentially stall over the western Atlantic by the end of the period. The new NHC track forecast is again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus aids through 96 h. At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4 and 5 is quite low.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Regardless of Karen’s status as a tropical cyclone, this system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 14.9N  64.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Roseau, Dominica)
 12H  24/0000Z 16.0N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Frederiksted, USVI)
 24H  24/1200Z 17.7N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 36H  25/0000Z 19.6N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 48H  25/1200Z 21.9N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 72H  26/1200Z 25.6N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St George's, Bermuda)
 96H  27/1200Z 27.0N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St George's, Bermuda)
120H  28/1200Z 27.0N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22, 2019

The convective structure of Karen has continued to lose organization this afternoon, with the center becoming exposed to the north and northwest of the primary convective band. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm has found a well-defined circulation, and flight-level and SFMR winds to support an intensity of around 30 kt. The plane, however, has not fully sampled the storm so the initial intensity remains 35 kt which is between the wind speeds indicated in earlier ASCAT data and the recent in situ observations.

The upper-level environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain unfavorable with the global models and SHIPS guidance predicting an increase in northeasterly shear by Monday. This is expected to prevent the storm from strengthening, and Karen may even have trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status while it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. After the system moves north of Puerto Rico around midweek, it is forecast to reach more favorable upper-level conditions and the NHC intensity forecast again calls for strengthening later in the forecast period. The new intensity forecast, however, is slightly more conservative than the previous one at days 3-5, and is a little above the latest intensity consensus (IVCN) model).

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from earlier today. Karen should turn northwestward, and then northward during the next day or so as it begins to respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should bring the center of Karen over Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. By late in the forecast period, the dynamical models build a strong deep-layer ridge over the southeast United States that extends northeastward over the western Atlantic. This pattern is likely to cause Karen to slow its northward progression by days 4 and 5. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only slight adjustments to the previous official forecast were required.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.
  • 2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding is possible on these islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 12.9N  62.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Port Elizabeth, Bequia)
 12H  23/0600Z 13.7N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Castries, St. Lucia)
 24H  23/1800Z 14.9N  64.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Roseau, Dominica)
 36H  24/0600Z 16.3N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Guayama, Puerto Rico)
 48H  24/1800Z 18.0N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (Emajagua, Puerto Rico)
 72H  25/1800Z 21.5N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 96H  26/1800Z 24.3N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
120H  27/1800Z 26.0N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22, 2019

Radar and satellite imagery shows that convection associated with Karen has lost some organization since advisories were initiated early this morning. However, surface observations and a very recently arriving ASCAT data show that the circulation is well-defined, and is currently passing through the southern Windward Islands. Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant strengthening is expected through 48 hours. In fact, the system may have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over the system on Monday. Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico, the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the structure of the system at that time. At this time, the long-range intensity forecast is quite uncertain.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on Karen turning northwestward, and then northward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge during the next day or two. A northward motion should continue into mid-week as a weakness in the ridge remains over the western Atlantic. After that time, models suggest that another ridge will begin to build over the southeastern U.S. and far western Atlantic which may cause Karen to slow down by the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and lies near the consensus models. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and the British Virgin Islands.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.
  • 2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and The British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding is possible on these islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 12.5N  61.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW L'Appelle, Grenada)
 12H  23/0000Z 13.1N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Layou, St Vincent and the Grenadines)
 24H  23/1200Z 14.2N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Les Trois-Îlets, Martinique)
 36H  24/0000Z 15.4N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Portsmouth, Dominica)
 48H  24/1200Z 16.9N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Vieques, Puerto Rico)
 72H  25/1200Z 20.7N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
 96H  26/1200Z 23.4N  65.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE San Juan, Puerto Rico)
120H  27/1200Z 25.3N  65.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St George's, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Updated for the low-pressure area near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low-pressure area located between Barbados and Tobago is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located less than 100 miles east of Barbados have not become any better organized during the day, and the system does not have a well-defined circulation. However, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission earlier this afternoon indicated that the wave is producing winds to 35 mph. At least gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form during the next couple of days while it moves westward and then northwestward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

This system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft has been investigating a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands this afternoon. The aircraft found evidence of a sharp surface trough but confirmed that a well-defined circulation has not formed. Although the system is currently disorganized, at least gradual development is anticipated and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early next week. The wave is forecast to move quickly westward for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 21, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of Puerto Rico. 1.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on Sunday. Although the system is currently disorganized, environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early next week.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

If this storm system is named. it will become Tropical Storm Karen.

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