Tropical Storm Mario

Post Tropical Storm Mario Track 0900 Hours September 23 2019
Post Tropical Storm Mario Track 0900 Hours September 23 2019

Tropical Storm Mario Satellite 0900 Hours September 18, 2019Tropical Storm Mario Forming – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23, 2019

Mario’s quest as a tropical cyclone is over. The low has produced only a few small areas of intermittent convection during the last day or so, but with an insufficient organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Mario is now a remnant low and this is the last advisory.

The remnant low will move slowly generally northward or north-northwestward for the next day or so as it slowly spins down. It will likely open up into a trough near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 25.0N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Adolfo López Mateos, Mexico)
 12H  24/0000Z 26.0N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW San Juanico, Mexico)
 24H  24/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Bahía Asunción, Mexico)
 36H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22, 2019

Corrected status at 48H (24/1800Z) Mario has maintained its reprieve from the discontinuance of advisories, with a few thunderstorms persisting to the west of the low-level center. This continues to barely support tropical cyclone status. Assuming that this convection dissipates soon, the cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low by early Monday. The system is likely to dissipate completely in a couple of days.

Mario continues to move north-northwestward or 345 at 9 kt. The cyclone should move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone and make landfall over the south-central Baja California on Tuesday as a very weak system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 22.9N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Puerto Cortés, Mexico)
 24H  23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW La Bocana, Mexico)
 36H  24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Punta Abreojos, Mexico)
 48H  24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W   15 KT  15 MPH - Low (WSW El Marasal, Mexico)
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22, 2019

After being devoid of deep convection since yesterday, a couple of thunderstorms have formed just to the southwest of the cyclone’s center. Although this barely qualifies the system to retain tropical cyclone status, advisories are being continued for the time being. However, Mario should degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours or so.

The weakening low is expected to turn northward and move over the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday, and dissipate later that day.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 22.0N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  23/0000Z 23.3N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Puerto Chale, Mexico)
 24H  23/1200Z 24.8N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Adolfo López Mateos, Mexico)
 36H  24/0000Z 26.3N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Punta Abreojos, Mexico)
 48H  24/1200Z 27.9N 113.6W   15 KT  15 MPH - Low (ESE Las Bombas, Mexico)
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21, 2019

Mario has been a swirl of low clouds devoid of convection since the last advisory. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based mainly on subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and passive microwave winds from the WindSat suggests the possibility this is a bit generous.

While Mario remains in an area of strong easterly vertical shear, it is still over warm sea surface temperatures and in a relatively moist air mass. Thus, the lack of convection is a little surprising. The intensity forecast will show little change in strength during the next 12 h in anticipation of a convective burst developing near the center during the diurnal maximum. After that time, dry air entrainment and movement over cooler waters should inhibit the development of convection, and the cyclone is forecast to decay into a remnant low by 36 h, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is again mainly an update of the previous forecast.

Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 350/6 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north-northwestward to northwestward motion through about 48 h, followed by a more northward motion near the 72 h point. Once again, little change was made to the forecast track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 20.3N 110.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 12H  22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Puerto Cortés, Mexico)
 48H  24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WNW Adolfo López Mateos, Mexico)
 72H  25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WNW Del Vizcaíno, Mexico)
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21, 2019

Geostationary satellite imagery shows the low-level center of Mario is exposed to the northeast of the main convective mass, which is the result of strong northeasterly shear. An average of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates and UW-CIMSS SATCON yields an initial wind speed of 45 kt. Hopefully, ASCAT data will provide a better assessment of the cyclone’s intensity later today. The vertical shear over Mario is forecast to remain moderate to strong during the next 24 hours while Mario heads toward cooler waters. This should result in gradual weakening. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease but the system will be moving into a more stable air mass and reach the 26C isotherm by 48 hours. Continued weakening is forecast and Mario is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days.

Mario is progressing slowly north-northwestward, or 330 degrees at 4 kt. The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on a northwesterly track around the western side of a mid-level ridge. As Mario weakens, it should turn northward and slow down with the low-level steering flow. The latest consensus aids were a little west of the previous track, so the latest official forecast has been nudged in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 18.9N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 12H  22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSWCabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Puerto Chale, Mexico)
 72H  24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Adolfo López Mateos, Mexico)
 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20, 2019

Microwave imagery since the last advisory indicates that Mario has been able to maintain its low-level structure, but deep convection is mostly displaced to the southwest of the cyclone’s surface center. This may be a sign that northeasterly shear has again increased across Mario, at least for the moment. The intensity estimate is still 55 kt based on Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, but objective values are lower.

Almost no change was made to the NHC intensity forecast. SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that substantial northeasterly shear will continue to affect Mario for the next couple of days, and by the time the shear relaxes early next week, the cyclone will have reached much cooler waters. Given that Mario is in better shape than it was a day ago, some slight strengthening is still shown in the short-term forecast, but only the GFS explicitly forecasts Mario to reach hurricane strength. Nearly all of the dynamical models forecast that Mario will lose its convection and become a remnant low by 96 h or sooner, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.Tropical Storm Mario Tropical Force Wind Probability 09-20-2019

The track forecast is very low confidence, evidenced by the fact that the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are both outliers from their respective ensembles run at the same time. In fact, both models are outside of their associated guidance envelope and show Mario getting very near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how much Mario and Lorena will interact during the next 2 or 3 days. The NHC forecast continues to keep the two systems separate, showing both systems moving generally northwestward in tandem at 48 h and beyond. However, given the close proximity of the two cyclones, a merger can not be ruled out. The NHC forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble envelopes. Significant changes may still be required to the track forecast later today, and there is still a chance that Mario could directly affect portions of the Baja California peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 17.9N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 12H  21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 24H  21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 36H  22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Adolfo López Mateos, Mexico)
 96H  24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20, 2019

Recent microwave imagery and ASCAT data indicate that Mario’s center is located a little to the southwest of previous estimates, near a bursting area of deep convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -80C. The initial intensity estimate remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The UW-CIMSS analysis shows shear currently around 5 kt, but the SHIPS analysis is higher, showing 15 kt. Given the cloud pattern and a banding eye feature seen in a partial GMI overpass around 0740Z, the shear looks on the lower side of that range.

The NHC intensity forecast continues to show some strengthening in the short term. After that time the shear increases and the cyclone will be moving into a drier and more stable environment with decreasing SSTs. These factors should result in gradual weakening, with remnant low status expected by day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast is at or above the highest guidance through 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 030/4, as Mario appears to have slowed and turned more poleward during the past few hours. The latest global models have trended toward more interaction between Mario and Lorena this cycle.  Alternatively, the ECMWF shows a weakening Mario absorbing Lorena after 48 hours near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with a track well east of the rest of the guidance.

The NHC forecast keeps the systems separate for now, with Lorena shown as dissipated in 96 hours. However, a merger is possible by 48 hours. The new NHC track shows Mario turning northward and then northwestward within 24 hours as a mid-level ridge builds over northern Mexico. Late in the period, a weakening Mario is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward under the influence of a large low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The new NHC track is to the right of the TVCE consensus, but is actually bit to the left of the previous NHC track given the initial position and motion of the system during the past few hours. Given the uncertainty in the degree of interaction with Lorena, confidence is low in the details of the track forecast even within the first 48 hours, and additional adjustments may be needed later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 17.6N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 12H  20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 24H  21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Isla San Benedicto, Mexico)
 36H  21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropucal Depression (WSW San Juanico, Mexico)
120H  25/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19, 2019

The intensity of Mario is still 55 kt, based on a blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity fixes, but these estimates likely have a higher-than-normal uncertainty. Recent microwave and first-light visible imagery implies that the low-level center of Mario may now be displaced to the east of most of its deep convection, and if this is actually the case, the winds may very well have decreased since the last advisory.

Mario is currently embedded within low- to mid-layer southwesterly flow and this should cause the cyclone to move generally northeastward or north-northeastward for the next day or two. What happens after that depends largely on Lorena. The odds that Mario (or its remnants) will directly interact with Lorena (or its remnants) have increased, but it is still unclear whether one cyclone will absorb the other or if they will have a binary interaction and rotate around one another. Confidence in the forecast is therefore low, but will hopefully increase later today after a reconnaissance plane provides more information about the state of Lorena. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the vast guidance envelope and keeps Mario as a distinct system through day 5, but significant changes may be required to the track forecast later today.

The intensity forecast is no clearer. Microwave imagery overnight showed that Mario had once again developed a well-defined convective inner-core. However, more recent imagery this morning suggests that the tropical storm has become strongly tilted with height. The poorly organized vertical structure should prevent the cyclone from significant strengthening in the short term and moderate to strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue for the next several days. The official intensity forecast is quite a bit lower than the previous one. It now lies closer to the intensity consensus but it should be noted that it is too soon to completely rule out Mario powering up to hurricane strength at some point during the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 12H  20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 24H  20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 36H  21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 48H  21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 72H  22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Puerto San Carlos, Mexico)
120H  24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE San Juanico, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18, 2019

Recent microwave imagery shows that the inner core of Mario has become better defined overnight. Both GPM and SSMI overpasses reveal a small low- to mid-level eye feature that is fairly aligned with the low-level center. This places the center well within the convective mass seen in conventional satellite imagery. Based on this recent improvement in organization, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest SAB Dvorak estimate and UW/CIMSS ADT.

Mario has managed to fight off moderate northeasterly shear so far, and with the cyclone traversing warm SSTs during the next day or so, additional strengthening is forecast. The new intensity forecast is above the previous advisory in the short term and brings Mario to hurricane strength within 24 hours. After that time, the anticipated slow motion of the storm could cause some upwelling, so little change in strength is shown in the middle portion of the forecast period, followed by slow weakening.

Mario is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it northwestward during the next day or so. After that time, the track forecast becomes much more uncertain as some of the dynamical models suggest some binary interaction between Mario and Lorena, with Mario turning northeastward as Lorena passes to the northeast and north of Mario. For now, the NHC forecast anticipates less interaction between the two tropical cyclones, and the official forecast is closest to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean. The medium- to long-range track forecast for Mario is much more uncertain than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 14.5N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Zihuatanejo, Mexico)
 12H  19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Zihuatanejo, Mexico)
 24H  19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 36H  20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 48H  20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 72H  21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 96H  22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
120H  23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18, 2019

Mario has done well in fighting off northeasterly shear that continues to impact it, with deep convection extending across the center for much of the night. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 80 n mi in the southeast quadrant, and 60 n mi in the northeast quadrant. This pass also indicated that the maximum winds have increased to 40 kt, and this will be the initial advisory intensity.

Mario has turned a little to the left, and the initial motion is now 310/09 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it in this general direction through Thursday morning. By late Thursday, a trough digging into the western United States is expected to erode the ridge, and the steering currents will collapse. This will result in a decrease in forward speed and eventually, Mario is expected to become nearly stationary through Friday night. By Saturday, the ridge is forecast to rebuild over Mexico, which would result in Mario beginning a north-northwest motion. The official forecast track is high confidence through 72 hours and in the middle of tightly clustered consensus guidance. After 72 hours when the cyclone is expected to begin moving again, the guidance diverges and has shifted a little to the east. The official forecast was also shifted a little to the east but remains west of the consensus aids during that time frame.

The shear affecting Mario is expected to continue for the duration of the forecast period, while tropical cyclone Lorena remains to the northeast. Warm waters and a favorable atmospheric environment aside from the shear should allow for gradual strengthening for the next couple of days, and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. By Saturday, Mario will begin to move into a drier and more stable environment, while the shear remains. This should cause a weakening trend to begin and continue through the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and is on the higher end of the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 13.7N 110.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Zihuatanejo, Mexico)
 12H  18/1800Z 14.7N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Zihuatanejo, Mexico)
 24H  19/0600Z 15.7N 112.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Zihuatanejo, Mexico)
 36H  19/1800Z 16.4N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 48H  20/0600Z 16.7N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 72H  21/0600Z 17.5N 112.9W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
 96H  22/0600Z 19.0N 113.6W   60 KT  70 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Isla Socorro, Mexico)
120H  23/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)

 

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17, 2019

Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western semicircle. While the subjective estimates are unchanged from earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the increased convective organization trend on satellites. Thus the initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory.

Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. A slow west-northwest track is forecast at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm Lorena.

With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear, warm-water environment. Interestingly, the guidance is actually lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any reasons for the change. I’ve elected to let the morning forecast ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 24H  18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 36H  19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 48H  19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 72H  20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 96H  21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
120H  22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17, 2019

Deep convection has intensified over the small area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring for several days. Both SAB and TAFB estimates indicate that there is now enough organized thunderstorm activity to initiate advisories on a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed of 30 kt matches the overnight scatterometer data and the subjective Dvorak estimates.

The initial motion is an uncertain 335/8 kt, with steering provided by a distant low-level ridge to the east. The cyclone is forecast to gradually turn toward the northwest and west-northwest during the next several days as it runs into the southwestern side of a mid-latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. The biggest complication is Tropical Storm Lorena to the northeast, which some of the model guidance, such as the 6Z GFS, shows a binary interaction with at longer term, which could induce a more northward motion. While I can’t rule that out, the forecast will stay closer to the models that show less interaction, such as the more westward HWRF and ECMWF solutions, and the NHC forecast is close to a blend of those models.

While almost all of the guidance indicates strengthening of this depression into a hurricane in a few days, this forecast is problematic because of the proximity to Lorena. Convective outflow from Lorena could induce more easterly shear than is currently forecast if the tracks get closer together. For now, since the cyclones are forecast to remain a fair distance from one another, this wind speed prediction assumes that the low-shear environment in most of the models materialize, and the forecast follows the corrected-consensus intensity guidance HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 11.9N 108.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 24H  18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 36H  19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 48H  19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 72H  20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 96H  21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
120H  22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)

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