Tropical Storm Lorena

Tropical Depression Lorena Track 0900 Hours September 22 2019
Tropical Depression Lorena Track 0900 Hours September 22 2019

Hurricane Lorena Satellite 0900 Hours September 21 2019Tropical Storm Lorena  – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22, 2019

The poorly defined center of what is left of Lorena (see Friday 12:00 video below) crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning to the northwest of Guaymas. The system has degenerated into a broad area of low pressure accompanied by a few showers. The low is expected to move farther inland and dissipate tonight or early Monday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 28.8N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW  Miguel Alemán, Mexico)
 12H  23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Querobabi, Mexico)
 24H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21, 2019

Recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave overpasses helped locate the center of Lorena, which was hidden under a band of cirrus clouds, over the Gulf of California southwest of Guymas. The system was devoid of convection for several hours. However, a new burst of convection has recently formed just northeast of the center. There is little data near the central core, so the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. Lorena should make landfall over northwestern Mexico during the next several hours, then rapidly weaken over the mountainous terrain and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning.

The microwave data indicate that Lorena is continuing to move just west of due north or 355/10 kt. A general northward or perhaps north-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory track.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora Saturday night and Sunday. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday.
  • 2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 27.6N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Guaymas, Mexico)
 12H  22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE La Yuta, Mexico)
 24H  23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW La Discordia, Mexico)
 36H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21, 2019

The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of Lorena’s circulation will continue to interact with land and that the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide a better assessment of Lorena’s winds.

Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week.
  • 2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch is in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Isla Santa Catalina, Mexico)
 12H  22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Punta Chivato, Mexico)
 24H  22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Campo de Calles, Mexico)
 36H  23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE La Discordia, Mexico)
 48H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20, 2019

Microwave data overnight showed that Hurricane Lorena eye feature was trying to form, and this feature became really distinct on the 1059 UTC SSMIS image. A hint of an eye is becoming apparent on visible images at this time. An average of subjective and objective T-numbers yields an initial intensity of 65 kt.

Lorena is moving over very warm waters, and this could help the cyclone to strengthen some during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. After that time, once the cyclone reaches the cooler waters just west of the peninsula, weakening should the begin. In addition, the chances of Lorena becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in about 48 hours have increased as indicated by some global models. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, the dissipation of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days.

Lorena has been moving very slowly toward the west or 280 degrees at 2 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around a subtropical ridge over Mexico, and the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario to the south. Lorena should turn a little more to the west-northwest around the ridge with some increase in forward speed. Most of the track guidance indicates that this turn should occur well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the right of the previous one and is in between the multi-model consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding possible.
  • 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 22.7N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Los Inocentes, Mexico)
 36H  22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Cortés, Mexico)
 48H  22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Cortés, Mexico)
 72H  23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Punta Abreojos, Mexico)
 96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20, 2019

Lorena is close to hurricane strength, and the initial intensity of 60 kt is a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates and a SATCON analysis of 57 kt.

Lorena is expected to re-gain hurricane strength very soon as it passes near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some further intensification is forecast before the cyclone traverses much cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures beyond the 36-hour period. Lorena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days, however, the chances of the cyclone interacting and becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in 48 hours or so have increased significantly. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, the dissipation of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/8 kt. The cyclone is currently situated between a mid- to the upper-level tropospheric ridge over northern Mexico and larger Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest, while a high amplitude shortwave trough, northwest of Lorena, approaches the west coast of the United States. The global and regional guidance has become more aligned with the interaction with Mario in a couple of days, and has shifted considerably toward the west away from the Baja California peninsula. Subsequently, a major shift of the official forecast has been made to the left of the previous forecast, but the NHC track still lies well to the east of the various multi-model consensus models. At this point, only the legacy GFS global model fails to show binary interaction with Mario. Wind radii adjustments were made based on 0334 UTC scatterometer data.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding possible.
  • 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 22.3N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  20/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  21/0600Z 22.7N 110.7W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW El Pescadero, Mexico)
 36H  21/1800Z 23.1N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Todos Santos, Mexico)
 48H  22/0600Z 24.1N 113.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto San Carlos, Mexico)
 72H  23/0600Z 26.4N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Bahía Asunción, Mexico)
 96H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19, 2019

Microwave and satellite imagery indicated that the center of Lorena moved along the southwestern coast of Mexico overnight and this morning. More recent 1-minute GOES-17 visible satellite imagery suggests that the center has now moved offshore just west of Cabo Corrientes. Assuming that some weakening occurred while the core interacted with land, the initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt for this advisory. This is in agreement with an average of the SAB and TAFB satellite estimates.

Although the inner core has likely been disrupted, the overall satellite appearance suggests Lorena remains well organized with excellent banding and very cold cloud tops over the center. Lorena will be traversing very warm water to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula and the upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable. Therefore, re-strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, and the NHC intensity forecast is closest to the higher statistical guidance. This foreast could be on the low side if the inner core has remained more intact that currently thought. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lorena this afternoon, and this data should provide a better estimate of the current intensity and structure of the cyclone.

Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Lorena is moving northwestward or 320/9 kt. A west-northwesterly motion is expected to begin later today while Lorena moves between a mid-level ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Mario to its southwest. This forecast assumes that Lorena will remain the dominant system if it interacts with Mario, and will eventually turn northwestward around the western portion of the ridge. This scenario is favored by most of the ECMWF ensemble members and is close to the GFS ensemble mean.

Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this afternoon.
  • 3. Lorena is forecast re-strengthen into a hurricane and move very close to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Friday afternoon, and could bring hurricane conditions to the area. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued, and residents should heed the advice of local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 20.5N 105.9W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta, Mexico)
 12H  20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Maria Cleofas, Mexico)
 24H  20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW San Juanito, Mexico)
 36H  21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Banderitas, Mexico)
 96H  23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Bahía Asunción, Mexico)
120H  24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW El Marrón, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18, 2019

Lorena’s cloud pattern has improved this morning, with the development of a central dense overcast feature, and several bands wrapping around the circulation. The initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement subjective satellite estimates from SAB, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Lorena is located within favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Lorena’s intensity will depend on how much interaction occurs with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC forecast takes the center along the immediate coast and shows some slight weakening as this occurs. After that time, re-strengthening is possible as Lorena is forecast to traverse warm waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is more uncertain than normal due to the potential for land interaction.

Lorena has moved a little right of the previous track. Recent microwave fixes indicated a northwestward motion of 325/11 kt. Lorena is forecast to move northwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. The overall track envelope has nudged eastward, closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico. In fact, the ECMWF brings the center of Lorena onshore tonight, and that is a distinct possibility. The early portion of the NHC track has been nudged eastward and lies between the aforementioned ECMWF model track and the various consensus aids. After 24 hours, most of the guidance turns Lorena west-northwestward as a narrow ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. During this portion of the track forecast, the guidance has shifted to the right, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously close to the coast of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight. A hurricane warning has been issued for this area and preparations to protect life in the property should be rushed to completion.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.4N 103.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico)
 12H  19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW La Cruz de Loreto, Mexico)
 36H  20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, Mexico)
 48H  20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla María Magdalena, Mexico)
 72H  21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Cortés, Mexico )
120H  23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Punta Abreojos, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17, 2019

First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-W revealed that the disturbance just south of Mexico has developed a well-defined surface center. The system has also developed an extensive convective band stretching from the southwest to the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. A pair of ASCAT passes overnight showed winds were already at tropical-storm strength, so the system has been designated as Tropical Storm Lorena. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, though the ASCAT data showed winds could actually already be higher than that, so that may be conservative.

Lorena is moving quickly toward the northwest or 305/13 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico should keep it moving generally northwestward for the next few days, at a slightly slower speed. Most of the dynamical models show this general scenario, however, some of the typically reliable track models, including the GFS, seem to have trouble resolving the small cyclone, and show the cyclone moving more west-northwestward. This small difference is important and could be the difference between Lorena directly impacting Mexico or passing just to the southwest. The NHC forecast is on the far right side of the guidance envelope, favoring the ECMWF and UKMET solutions, which seem to have a more realistic current depiction of the tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast is on the far right side of the standard guidance envelope but is near the middle of the ECMWF ensemble. This brings Lorena very near the Mexico coast in about 2 days and it is possible that the storm could make landfall. At longer ranges the GFS depicts the beginning of a binary interaction between Lorena and the newly-formed depression to the west, however at the moment this does not seem particularly likely, and the NHC forecast favors the ECMWF through day 5 which shows no such interaction.

Moderate easterly shear appears to be affecting the tropical storm for now, and this will likely be the primary moderating factor for Lorena’s intensity. SSTs are very warm and there is ample moisture, but only slow intensification is likely as long as the shear persists. The NHC forecast, therefore, shows slow strengthening for the next couple of days. Beyond that time, if the cyclone moves inland, it should quickly weaken or possibly dissipate, but if it stays farther offshore it may have an opportunity to strengthen further. The NHC forecast holds the cyclone nearly steady-state, but it is well below the consensus at day 4 and 5, since most of the intensity models are based on tracks that stay well offshore of Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 13.7N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Puerto Escondido, Mexico)
 12H  18/0000Z 14.8N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 24H  18/1200Z 16.3N 102.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Zihuatanejo, Mexico)
 36H  19/0000Z 17.5N 103.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico)
 48H  19/1200Z 18.5N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Tecomán, Mexico)
 72H  20/1200Z 20.0N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Isla María Magdalena, Mexico)
 96H  21/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
120H  22/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Sep 17, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kiko, located over the southwestern part of the basin.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a well-defined area of low pressure located about 600 miles south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is close to becoming a tropical depression. Advisories on this system could be initiated later this morning or this afternoon while the low moves west-northwestward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 16, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kiko, located in the southwestern part of the basin.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a larger low-pressure area located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is also becoming better organized, with satellite-derived winds indicating that the circulation is also better defined. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a day or two as the system moves west-northwestward near or a short distance offshore of the coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Sep 16, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kiko, located in the southwestern part of the basin. 2. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined overnight, and the associated thunderstorm activity has also increased. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 15, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Sep 15, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated with a small area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Sep 14, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 14, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 13, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of Central America over the weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Sep 12, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently named Tropical Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of Central America over the weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the southern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 12, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of Central America over the weekend. Development of this system is becoming increasingly likely, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward well south of the southern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.  * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 12, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

If this system is named, it will be called Tropical Storm Lorena.

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Video: 10News reporter describes situation in Cabo San Lucas as Hurricane Lorena approaches

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