Tropical Storm Kiko

Tropical Storm Kiko Track 0500 Hours September 24 2019
Tropical Storm Kiko Track 0500 Hours September 24 2019

Tropical Storm Kiko Satellite 0800 Hours September 20 2019Tropical Storm Kiko – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24, 2019

Forty to forty-five knots of south-southwesterly shear has caused Kiko’s (see Tuesday video below) convection to become displaced from the low-level center by about 70 n mi. A blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the latest ADT, supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Kiko is heading for even stronger shear during the next 6-12 hours, which should lead to further degradation in the cyclone’s structure and a quick decrease in its maximum winds. The GFS and ECMWF simulated infrared satellite fields suggest that all deep convection could dissipate by 24 hours, and as a result, the time of Kiko’s degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up to 36 hours in the official forecast. Dissipation is expected by day 4.

Kiko’s initial motion is northwestward, or 310/9 kt. The cyclone is moving between a mid-/upper-level low to its west and mid-level ridging to its northeast. However, once it loses its deep convection and becomes a shallow vortex, Kiko is expected to turn westward (by 36 hours) and then west-southwestward (by 48 hours). Only minor adjustments to the NHC track forecast were required, and on the forecast track, Kiko should cross 140W into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon.

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 17.9N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W   20 KT  25 MPH - Low (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W   15 KT  15 MPH - Low (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23, 2019

Kiko’s convection has dramatically increased this morning, and satellite intensity estimates have increased in turn. The initial intensity is back up to 45 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective fixes that range from 40 to 55 kt.

Kiko’s small size is likely making it particularly susceptible to short-term intensity fluctuations, so it is unclear at this time how long this upward trend will continue. It appears that the tropical storm has a chance to intensify some more today while it is located in a relatively low shear environment and over warm SSTs. However, the global models indicate that strong southwesterly shear will once again affect the cyclone in about 24 h, and weakening is still anticipated from that time onward. The dynamical models all show Kiko becoming a post-tropical remnant low in about 72 h, and it could dissipate a couple of days after that. The NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance at 12 h, but closely follows the intensity consensus through the rest of the forecast period.

Kiko appears to have turned west-northwestward and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 285/7 kt. The models are in good agreement that Kiko will move generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next couple of days as the subtropical ridge weakens yet again. Around 72 h, Kiko is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward as it is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and closely follows the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 15.7N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  24/0000Z 16.4N 136.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  24/1200Z 17.6N 138.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  25/0000Z 19.0N 139.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  25/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  26/1200Z 19.7N 143.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  27/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH. - Low (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22, 2019

Not much can be added to Kiko after nearly 10 days describing the cyclone. It still consists of a tight circulation of low clouds with intermittent bursts of deep convection. Based on Dvorak estimates the initial intensity is kept at 35 kts. Kiko has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit in one of those bursts, but the general trend is for Kiko to weaken and become a remnant low as it crosses the end of our domain.

Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest at 6 knots steered by the subtropical ridge and its associated trades. Kiko will continue swinging south of west and north of due west as the subtropical high pulses during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 16.1N 133.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii) 
 72H  25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Sep 22, 2019

A small area of deep convection has continued to pulsate near the center of Kiko overnight and this morning. The most recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support winds of 35 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Kiko has a small window of opportunity in which to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters and into an environment of lower wind shear within the next 24-36 h. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing SSTs should cause weakening and Kiko is again forecast to become a remnant low by 96 hours.

Kiko is moving southwestward at 7 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning for this advisory. Kiko should continue southwestward today, before turning westward, and then northwestward Monday and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough cuts off to the northwest of the cyclone. After Kiko weakens to a remnant low, it should turn southwestward once again as it is steered by the low-level flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 16.5N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  23/0000Z 15.9N 134.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  23/1200Z 15.8N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  24/0000Z 16.6N 136.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  24/1200Z 17.9N 137.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  25/1200Z 19.4N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  26/1200Z 18.7N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  27/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Low (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21, 2019

A couple of recent microwave images shows that the low and mid-level centers of Kiko are not vertically aligned due to some southwesterly shear. The center is located beneath the cold cloud tops, but is near the southwestern edge of the convective mass. Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from both agencies and SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS are between 50-55 kt, therefore the initial intensity is held at 55 kt but this could be a little generous.

Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days while Kiko remains over SSTs of 26-27C and in generally low shear conditions. After that time, increasing southerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are likely to cause gradual weakening. The updated NHC wind speed forecast is very close to the previous advisory.

It appears that Kiko has turned westward or 270/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Kiko is forecast to strengthen today, which is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southwestward later today. A southwestward motion should continue for a couple of days, but the dynamical models weaken the ridge after that time, and Kiko is likely to turn back northwestward early next week. The track guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast lies near the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 18.4N 131.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20, 2019

A pair of microwave images between 0900 and 1100 UTC revealed that Kiko has redeveloped a well-defined low-level inner core. However, most of the deep convection associated with the tropical storm is located northeast of the center, a result of moderate southwesterly shear. The intensity of Kiko has been raised slightly to 50 kt based on an average of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates.

Kiko is now moving north-northwestward, but is still expected to turn generally westward, and then west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone during the next couple of days. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge could weaken (again) and Kiko could turn northwestward (again) but the models vary on the details of exactly when and where this will happen. Regardless, Kiko seems destined to continue weaving its way slowly westward through early next week. Only small adjustments to the track forecast were made, which remains near HCCA and TVCE.

Kiko has a chance to strengthen a little more today while it continues on its current heading. After that, every intensity model forecasts that Kiko will slightly weaken or level off, and the NHC forecast shows the same. Only a small tweak was made to the NHC forecast for the first 24 hours to account for the higher initial intensity of Kiko, and the n ew forecast is identical to the previous advisory after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20, 2019

Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of a persistent area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear as estimated by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate.

Kiko is moving slowly northwestward and is expected to continue in that general direction through today. A turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to the northwest of the cyclone. After that time, the models diverge considerably, with some taking Kiko northward and others westward. The differences in the models appear to be at least partially associated with the vertical depth of Kiko early next week. The NHC track forecast lies again roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus aids. Although the details of the track forecast are still uncertain, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern portion of the East Pacific basin for several more days.

Since there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast, the future intensity of Kiko is also uncertain given that the environment is very track dependent. The models, in general, show Kiko changing little in intensity, and the NHC forecast does likewise. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 17.0N 130.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19, 2019

Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The storm remains relatively compact with deep convection organized in bands to the north and east of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the strongest winds were located to the east of the center.

The storm is expected to be in relatively favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the next few days, and most of the dynamical models respond by showing the cyclone intensifying during that time period. Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show little change in strength during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between those scenarios and is in best agreement with the consensus aids. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one.

Kiko is moving slowly westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A turn to the northwest is expected later today in response to the ridge weakening and a disturbance to the southwest of Kiko. A west to west-southwest motion is likely over the weekend as another ridge strengthens to the northwest of the cyclone. The models continue to struggle on the evolution of the steering pattern for Kiko with the spread between the GFS and ECMWF at 120 h being around 500 n mi. The NHC track forecast remains roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope not far from the consensus aids. Regardless of the details, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern part of the east Pacific basin for several more days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.0N 128.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo Hawaii)
 72H  22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo Hawaii)
 96H  23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo Hawaii)
120H  24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18, 2019

Kiko appears to be stronger this morning with very deep convection near the center, although the cloud pattern is somewhat distorted. The initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 50 kt on this advisory, since the subjective satellite estimates have been running a little hot recently.

The storm continues to move west-southwest or 245/05 kt. A track resembling on a roller coaster (which seems appropriate for the ups and downs trying to forecast Kiko this past week) is anticipated during the next several days due to fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The guidance is actually in pretty good agreement on this unusual track, so little change was made to the previous NHC forecast.

Kiko is expected to remain in a low-shear and marginally warm-water environment for the next few days. After that time, some dry air entrainment and a possible increase in shear could level off the intensity. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, adjusted for the higher initial wind speed, but this is a fairly low confidence forecast at long range due to some large changes in the guidance at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 16.0N 126.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo Hawaii)
 72H  21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo Hawaii)
 96H  22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo Hawaii)
120H  23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18,  2019

Kiko is trying to recover from all of the shear that affected it for the past few days. An earlier microwave pass showed that most of the convection was confined to the southern semicircle. Over the past few hours, deep convection has been looking a little more organized near the storm’s center. Whether or not this is the start of a trend is too early to tell, and a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains near 45 kt.

Kiko continues to move southwest or 240/04 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. Kiko will be steered in a mean westerly trajectory for the next several days by mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone. Some northward or southward deviations in the forward motion are expected from time to time due to fluctuations in the strength of the ridge. The official forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the multi-model track, consensus aids.

Kiko is expected to remain in a low shear environment and will soon be moving over higher oceanic heat content. This should result in gradual strengthening. In a few days, the cyclone will begin to move into a drier and more stable environment which should limit any further intensification during the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 16.5N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo Hawaii)
 96H  22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo Hawaii)
120H  23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17, 2019

The northeasterly shear impacting Kiko has still not let up. Satellite imagery shows an irregular shaped central dense overcast with the anvils being forced down shear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity estimates suggest the initial intensity has decreased to 70 kt, and this value may be a little generous based on a recent scatterometer pass.

Kiko is moving slowly westward. All of the track guidance indicates that a turn to the west-southwest should be commencing very soon as the cyclone becomes steered by a mid-level ridge to its northwest. This steering pattern should remain in place for the next couple of days, before the ridge weakens and Kiko becomes steered to the west to the west-northwest by a ridge to its northeast. Late in the forecast period, a new ridge should develop to the northwest of Kiko, causing another turn to the west-southwest. All the while, the steering currents will be fairly weak, resulting in a slow forward motion for the next several days. The official NHC forecast was adjusted only slightly to the south through 72 hours due to a shift in the consensus aids.

The shear is expected to weaken Kiko to a tropical storm later today. By tonight, this shear is expected to diminish, which could allow for some re-strengthening. However, moderately stable air surrounding the system, subsidence from the ridge to the northwest, and marginal sea surface temperatures should keep the strengthening at a minimum before the shear returns in a couple of days. This re-strengthening is forecast by most of the guidance, and although the NHC forecast makes Kiko a hurricane again, the forecast intensity is a little lower than some of the most reliable consensus aids during that time period. Once the shear returns, Kiko is expected to begin weakening once again and should become a tropical storm by 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 17.2N 124.7W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 12H  17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 24H  18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 36H  18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16, 2019

Microwave data and satellite imagery continue to indicate that the core of Kiko is being disrupted. While there is a seemingly favorable outflow pattern, northeasterly shear is undercutting the top layer and preventing the cyclone from having a closed eyewall. Satellite estimates are falling and support a perhaps-generous initial wind speed of 90 kt.

The shear is forecast to continue during the next day or so, which should promote further weakening. After that time, the shear could lessen, although the environment overall is hardly very conducive for strengthening, and this scenario would best support little change in intensity. By Friday-Saturday, model guidance does show an increase in shear, so a more notable weakening could occur. The new NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, following the trend in the guidance, but is a bit above the model consensus. A fair number of models actually show a weaker cyclone, but in a complex environment, I’d rather be conservative in changing the longer-range intensity forecast.

There’s no significant track change to report with Kiko. The hurricane is moving westward at 4 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge. By 36 hours, another ridge building to the northwest of the hurricane will begin to steer Kiko to the west-southwest. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This will likely result in a general westward to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The new forecast track is close to the previous one, on the faster and southern side of the guidance, which has generally been the right place to be with Kiko’s track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 17.3N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 12H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 24H  17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 36H  18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 48H  18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  20/1200Z 17.3N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  21/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15, 2019

The satellite presentation of Kiko is improving again during the past couple of hours after the system was looking less organized shortly after the advisory. Overall, the hurricane continues to have a distinct eye and very deep convection in the eyewall. The initial wind speed will remain 115 kt, which is closest to the latest TAFB fix.

While there have been no changes to Kiko’s forward motion, westward at about 6 kt, the track forecast is changing a fair bit in this advisory. The long-expected weakness in the subtropical ridge in a couple of days continues to have less influence on the forecast path of the hurricane with the bulk of the models shifting southward and slower on this cycle. In addition, the orientation of the ridge extending from the central Pacific could even cause a slightly south-of-west track. The new NHC prediction is adjusted to the south and slower than the previous one, but the UKMET, ECMWF and corrected consensus models are all even farther south, suggesting further modifications could be necessary later.

The changes to the track forecast will keep Kiko over warmer water longer than initially thought. However, it is still forecast to move at only about 4 kt by tomorrow– slow enough to cause significant upwelling under the central core. Thus gradual weakening is anticipated, although the new forecast is at or above the model consensus for the next few days. The only notable difference at long range is a higher forecast intensity, mostly due to the track shifting south about a degree, which keeps the cyclone out of more marginal water temperatures with less shear.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 17.2N 121.9W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 12H  16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 24H  16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 36H  17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
120H  20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15, 2019

Kiko has become a very powerful hurricane overnight, with a warm eye and strong eyewall convection. The cloud pattern is also fairly symmetric, except favoring the western semicircle slightly due to some easterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, which matches the latest ADT and TAFB estimates.

The hurricane should be near its peak intensity today while it in is a low-shear, marginal warm-water environment. While those conditions don’t change that much during the next few days, Kiko is forecast to be moving fairly slowly over that time, which will likely stir up some cooler waters and help weaken the convection. A steadier weakening is expected at long-range due to an increase in shear. The new forecast is somewhat lower than the last one but higher than the model consensus. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Kiko could transition into an annular hurricane, which tends to maintain their intensities higher than average, so I’m hesitant to reduce the forecast too much for now.

Kiko is moving westward at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to remain in place for about the next two days, keeping the hurricane on a slow westward track. Weakness or even a break in the ridge is then forecast by all of the models due to a mid-latitude trough, with perhaps a restrengthening of the ridge at long range. There’s been a subtle model trend toward supporting the ridge remaining weak but intact, which would favor Kiko moving very slowly westward instead of any significant rightward turn. The latest NHC prediction places a greater weight on the UKMET and ECMWF models and their ensembles, which generally favor the weak ridge scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast track, but the long-range track confidence is low due to the large model spread at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 17.0N 121.1W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 12H  16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 24H  16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 36H  17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14, 2019

Kiko  has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24 hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt higher than last night’s estimate at the same time. The hurricane briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance. The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt.

There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast, it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north of the latest NHC forecast.

The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days, a mid-level ridge should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this point, so the NHC forecast isn’t fully following either group of models. Instead, it has been adjusted only modestly southward and remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say, confidence in the forecast is quite low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 12H  15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 24H  16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 36H  16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 96H  19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14, 2019

Kiko has continued to quickly strengthen today, with an eye becoming apparent in geostationary and microwave satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T4.5 (77 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON are around 75 kt. On this basis, the initial wind speed as been raised to 75 kt for this advisory, and Kiko becomes the sixth hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin this season. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Kiko remains over warm water and within low vertical wind shear conditions. After that time, slightly cooler waters and a little increase in shear are likely to cause gradual weakening. A faster rate of filling is expected after 72 hours when Kiko is forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, once again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Recent microwave fixes show that the center of Kiko is a little south of the previous estimates, which results in a more westward initial motion estimate of 270/10 kt. Kiko is currently being steered westward by a mid-level ridge that extends westward over the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico. The western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days which should cause Kiko to slow down and gain some latitude. There continues to be usually large spread in the track guidance, with the spread over 400 n mi by day 5. The latest trend in the guidance is slower and farther southward after 48 hours, so the NHC track has been adjusted in the direction. The new track forecast is not as slow as the lastest consensus models, so additional adjustment may be required in future advisories. In summary, the confidence in the track forecast remains quite low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 17.1N 119.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 12H  15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 24H  15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 36H  16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 48H  16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 72H  17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 96H  18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
120H  19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14, 2019

Kiko’s  cloud pattern has continued to quickly organize overnight and this morning. A couple of high-resolution microwave overpass from several hours ago revealed significant banding around the center, and that a banded eye had formed. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC were 55 kt, and the UW/CIMSS ADT is now up to about 60 kt. Based on the continued increase in organization, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt.

Kiko is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low wind shear environment during the next day or so. This should allow for additional intensification, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane later today. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper end of the guidance envelope. By 72 hours, Kiko will be moving into an area of increasing westerly shear and over slightly cooler waters. As a result, steady weakening is anticipated later in the forecast period.

The tropical storm is moving westward (280/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The track models still exhibit an usually large spread after 48 hours, especially for a system in the eastern Pacific basin. This appears to be the result of the forecast vertical depth of Kiko and how the cyclone responds to a developing weakness in the ridge. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF shows a more northerly track, with a stronger Kiko heading toward the break in the ridge. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET take a weaker Kiko on a more westerly heading. Since the NHC forecast shows Kiko a stronger and vertically deep system during the next couple of days, the track forecast lies a little north of the consensus models. After that time, Kiko is likely to weaken and the official forecast shows a turn back toward the west, as Kiko comes under the influence of the low-level easterly flow. As a result of the large model spread, the confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 17.4N 118.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 36H  16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 48H  16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 72H  17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 96H  18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13, 2019

Kiko’s  (convective pattern is still poorly organized. There was only a burst of convection near the estimated center overnight, and a new one is in progress. The circulation still consists of a broken low- and mid-level cloud deck with widely scattered embedded convection. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0/30 kt, while the objective estimate is near 40 kt. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt as a blend of the subjective and objective estimates.

Kiko is surrounded by dry air which is probably contributing to the system’s continued convective struggles. Going forward, low shear and warm water environment with limited environmental instability looks to allow a gradual increase in intensity. The new NHC forecast shows Kiko just shy of hurricane strength in about 48 hours, which is in good agreement with the trend of the model consensus.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, some bifurcation of the models remain, though there are more models supporting a west to northwest track than to the north. The only substantial change to the previous forecast is a slightly slower speed in Days 4 and 5, and the forecast will stay closer to the models that support a continued west-northwest track at long range.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 16.9N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 12H  14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 24H  14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 36H  15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 48H  15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 72H  16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Isla Clarión, Mexico)
 96H  17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13, 2019

Kiko’s convective pattern has still not gotten any better organized. There’s a small patch of convection near the estimated center, with another larger cluster much farther south. For the most part, however, the circulation consists of a broken low- and mid-level cloud deck with a few embedded showers. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0/30 kt, while objective numbers are only slightly higher. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt, but it’s entirely possible that Kiko may not be producing tropical-storm-force winds at this time.

The GOES-17 air mass product shows that Kiko is surrounded by some of the driest air over the entire tropical eastern Pacific, which could be contributing to the system’s convective struggles. And going forward, it appears that the thermodynamic environment could be less than ideal for significant strengthening, with SHIPS model diagnostics showing environmental stability to be the biggest negative factor. That being said, vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 3 days, so strengthening is likely if the dry air can be mixed out of the circulation. The new NHC forecast continues to show Kiko reaching hurricane strength in about 48 hours, although the peak intensity has been tempered a bit based on the latest guidance. The official forecast is close to a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus aids.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, there is a bifurcation of the models, with the GFS, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and Canadian turning Kiko northwestward or northward into a break-in the ridge, and the ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, and the consensus aids maintaining a west-northwestward or even westward heading on days 4 and 5. Due to this divergence, the updated forecast shows a slightly slower motion toward the end of the forecast period, but the track itself is very similar to the previous forecast, lying near the northern boundary of the southern camp of models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 16.8N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta, Mexico)
 48H  15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
120H  18/0600Z 21.0N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12, 2019

A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better-defined circulation and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system. Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continues to show increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt.

The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model consensus. The model trend has been to keep the system moving faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has been sped up to become more in line with current consensus solutions.

Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit conservative but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 12H  13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12, 2019

An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggests the system has likely become better organized since the scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from TAFB/SAB fixes.

The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the model consensus.

Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend. There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Acapulco, Mexico)
 12H  13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 24H  13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 36H  14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 48H  14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Manzanillo, Mexico)
 72H  15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, Mexico)
 96H  16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Puerto Vallarta, Mexico)
120H  17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 12, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated and better organized this morning around an area of low pressure located about 500 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If this trend continues, advisories will be initiated later this morning or afternoon while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For additional information on this system, please refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to become better defined. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next 24 hours as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of this disturbance and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

If this system is named, it will become Tropical Storm Kiko.

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