Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Track 1700 Hours September 9 2019
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Track 1700 Hours September 9 2019

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Satellite 0500 Hours September 8 2019

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

Satellite imagery continues to show symmetric convection around the center of Gabrielle (see Monday video below) despite some gradual warming in the cloud tops seen in the latest GOES infrared imagery. The initial wind speed was maintained at 45 kt, near the TAFB satellite estimate and a little above the SAB estimate.

Gabrielle remains on a northeastward motion and is moving a bit faster than the previous advisory, or 040/18 kt. The system is expected to further increase in forward speed in a similar direction over the next couple of days due to strengthening southwesterly flow near a mid-latitude trough. Only a slight northward adjustment was made to the prior NHC forecast since, overall, model guidance remains tightly clustered with the track of Gabrielle.

The storm has less than a day over marginally warm waters before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream and into much colder waters. Gabrielle should transition into an extratropical low on Tuesday night as a result of an increase in shear and low-level baroclinicity from an approaching cold front. The intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous forecast and continues to use a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model wind fields.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 40.7N  45.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 12H  10/0600Z 42.6N  42.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 24H  10/1800Z 45.1N  37.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 36H  11/0600Z 48.2N  31.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 48H  11/1800Z 52.0N  22.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Isle 0f Mull, Scotland)
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

Deep convection associated with Gabrielle  has become somewhat less organized overnight with the center located near the northeastern portion of the coldest cloud tops. There is still banding present over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation but it has become fragmented. Gabrielle has likely peaked in intensity, and the latest satellite estimates and earlier ASCAT data support an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. Little change in intensity is expected today while Gabrielle remains over warm water and within a moderate shear environment. By tonight, decreasing SSTs and increasing southerly shear should begin to cause gradual weakening. Shortly after that time, the global models indicate Gabrielle will become embedded within a baroclinic zone and become extratropical. The extratropical low is predicted to slowly weaken and be absorbed by a larger low-pressure system over the northeastern Atlantic in a little more than 3 days.

Gabrielle has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 015/14 kt. Gabrielle should turn northeastward today and begin to accelerate ahead of a broad mid-level trough approaching the central Atlantic. Once the cyclone is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, an additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected. There is good agreement among the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory. The official forecast track remains between the TVCA and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 37.7N  48.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 12H  09/1800Z 39.7N  46.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 24H  10/0600Z 42.2N  42.9W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 36H  10/1800Z 44.8N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 48H  11/0600Z 48.1N  31.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

Gabrielle has become a little better organized overnight. The storm now has well-defined curved bands, especially to the south of the center, with some evidence of an inner core trying to form. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 50 kt, which is between the Dvorak classification from TAFB and the latest satellite consensus estimate from the CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Earlier ASCAT data revealed that Gabrielle is a compact storm with its tropical-storm-force winds only extending out to about 60 n mi from the center.

The tropical storm is gradually turning to the right, with the initial motion estimated to be northwestward at 11 kt. The system is located near the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered near the Azores, and it should be moving around the western side of that ridge later today and tonight. This should cause Gabrielle to turn northward with some increase in forward speed during that time. An even faster northeastward motion is expected on Monday and Tuesday as Gabrielle, or its post-tropical remnants, become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track models are in fairly good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast.

Gabrielle could strengthen a little more today while it remains over warm water and in generally favorable atmospheric conditions. However, the combined influences of increasing southerly shear and cooler waters should end the chances of intensification on Monday. The global models are in agreement that Gabrielle should become extratropical when it merges with a cold front that is associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian in a little more than 2 days. The extratropical low is expected to gradually weaken and ultimately dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the majority of the intensity guidance.

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 32.7N  48.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  08/1800Z 34.3N  49.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  09/0600Z 37.1N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St, John's, Newfoundland)
 36H  09/1800Z 40.1N  45.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St, John's, Newfoundland)
 48H  10/0600Z 42.7N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 72H  11/0600Z 48.1N  28.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St, John's, Newfoundland)
 96H  12/0600Z 56.0N  10.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Isle 0f Mull, Scotland )
120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Gabrielle’s structure does not look healthy this morning. The low-level circulation appears elongated, and it’s difficult from visible satellite imagery alone to identify a well-defined center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, mainly based on continuity and satellite estimates from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. We will analyze just-received ASCAT data and make modifications in the afternoon advisory if necessary.

Gabrielle is swinging around the northeastern side of a mid- to upper-level low, which has imparted a rather fast northwestward motion of 310/15 kt. A generally northwestward trajectory should continue for the next 24 hours while Gabrielle remains positioned between the deep-layer low and high pressure to its northeast. After that time, Gabrielle should recurve around the high and then become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies beginning in 48 hours. That steering regime should induce a northeastward acceleration over the north Atlantic. Despite the cyclone’s uncertain initial position, the track models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast was placed close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. This new forecast largely lies right on top of the previous one.

Gabrielle’s environment never really becomes ideal for strengthening. For the next 24 hours, upper-level divergence and moderate easterly shear should continue over the system. By 48 hours, vertical shear is expected to increase further, and Gabrielle will be moving over sub-26C waters as it heads toward the north Atlantic. Based on these conditions, some strengthening is still shown in the official forecast, but it has been lowered from the previous advisory to match the latest intensity guidance. Based on the global model fields and phase-space diagrams, Gabrielle is forecast to be fully extratropical by day 4, if not sooner, and the system is likely to dissipate in the westerlies as it heads toward the British Isle

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 31.4N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 12H  08/0000Z 32.4N  45.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 24H  08/1200Z 34.1N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 36H  09/0000Z 36.5N  47.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  09/1200Z 39.4N  46.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Shelburne, Nova Scotia)
 72H  10/1200Z 45.0N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 96H  11/1200Z 51.5N  22.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Galway, Ireland)
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

Poorly defined Gabrielle has not produced any organized deep convection since Thursday morning, and what remains of the showers and thunderstorms is displaced nearly 200 miles north of the elongated surface circulation. Consequently, Tropical Storm Gabrielle can no longer be classified as a tropical cyclone and has degenerated into a 35 kt post-tropical cyclone.

Statistical-dynamical models, as well as the large-scale guidance, show that strong shear, along with mid-tropospheric dry air intrusion, should continue to inhibit convective development during the next 24 h or so, and cause further weakening into a remnant low. Around mid-period, the shear is forecast to decrease and the upper wind pattern becomes more diffluent. Additionally, Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will be traversing significantly warmer oceanic sea surface temperatures. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to redevelop organized deep convection, and more than likely, re-strengthen. In fact, some of the intensity guidance shows Gabrielle becoming a hurricane in 4 days before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone at the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the HFIP HCCA, and the deterministic guidance beyond day 3.

The initial motion is estimated to be an accelerating northwestward motion, or 315/10 kt. The global and regional models are in rather good agreement that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually turn toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours, before recurving northward and then northeastward early next week in response to an approaching major shortwave mid-latitude trough from the northwest. The official forecast track is just a little to the left of the previous one, and is very close to the TVCA simple multi-model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 25.5N  37.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 12H  06/1800Z 27.1N  39.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 24H  07/0600Z 29.2N  41.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 36H  07/1800Z 30.7N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 48H  08/0600Z 31.9N  47.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  09/0600Z 35.6N  48.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  10/0600Z 40.4N  44.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Vila do Corvo, Azores)
120H  11/0600Z 47.0N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Vila do Corvo, Azores)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

Tropical Storm Gabrielle  is barely holding on to its status as a tropical cyclone. The closest deep convection is now displaced over 100 n mi to the north of the tropical storm’s low-level center, and Dvorak intensity estimates have continued to decrease quickly. Given the lack of deep convection where the strongest winds were observed in earlier ASCAT data (not to mention near the cyclone’s center), some weakening has likely occurred since then. The intensity is therefore set at 40 kt for this advisory.

Very high shear should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, and it is unlikely that Gabrielle will become any better organized during that period. In fact, it can not be ruled out that the cyclone could briefly become post-tropical due to a lack of deep convection during that period. However, the shear should decrease in a couple of days, and the cyclone will then be moving over very warm SSTs. Deep convection will likely increase over the weekend and some strengthening is still forecast thereafter. Most of the dynamical models even suggest that Gabrielle could become a hurricane before it starts to become extratropical sometime next week. The statistical guidance isn’t nearly as bullish, so the NHC forecast continues to show only slow strengthening through the end of the forecast period.

The tropical storm has slowed in the short term, but is forecast by all of the guidance to accelerate northwestward overnight. The models remain in very good agreement that Gabrielle will then continue northwestward for a few days before recurving early next week ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough. Once again, little change has been made to the NHC track forecast which is very close to the multi-model consensus at every forecast hour.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 23.4N  35.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 12H  06/0600Z 24.6N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 24H  06/1800Z 26.6N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 36H  07/0600Z 28.5N  41.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands)
 48H  07/1800Z 30.2N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda
 72H  08/1800Z 33.3N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda
 96H  09/1800Z 37.5N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda
120H  10/1800Z 43.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical storm (ESE Vila do Corvo, Azores)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is struggling due to persistent southeasterly shear. The low-level center is completely exposed and has become quite elongated, and the nearest deep convection is displaced almost 60 n mi to the north. And yet, ASCAT-A and B data at 1200 UTC revealed that the winds have not yet decreased. Both passes showed winds of 40-45 kt in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone, so the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

For the next 36 h or so, Gabrielle will remain in a very unfavorable environment, and the wind shear is actually expected to increase according to SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF models. Beyond that time, the shear is forecast to decrease and Gabrielle will have a window in which it could strengthen over the weekend. By early next week, the cyclone is expected to move over much colder SSTs and will likely begin the process of becoming post-tropical, so further strengthening is unlikely. The new NHC forecast is generally close to the previous one, but now allows for some slight short-term weakening of Gabrielle, given the hostile current environment.

Almost no change was required to the track forecast, which is merely an update to the previous advisory. Gabrielle should move generally northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next 3 or 4 days before it recurves ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the track guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 22.8N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 12H  06/0000Z 23.8N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 24H  06/1200Z 25.5N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 36H  07/0000Z 27.4N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 48H  07/1200Z 29.4N  42.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  08/1200Z 33.0N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  09/1200Z 37.0N  48.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's Newfoundland)
120H  10/1200Z 42.0N  42.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's Newfoundland)

Tropical Storm Gabrielle –  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

Recent microwave data suggest that Tropical Storm Gabrielle continues to gradually become better organized, and the last few GOES-16 images show a convective burst forming over the center. The initial intensity is estimated at 45 kt based on the Dvorak number from TAFB and an earlier ASCAT pass from this morning, but it’s possible that this intensity estimate may be conservative.

The storm could intensify a little more in the short-term, but overall it is expected to remain in a marginal environment during the next couple of days, characterized by moderate southerly to southwesterly wind shear, low values of mid-level relative humidity and SSTs near 26-27C. Little overall change in strength is predicted during the next two days. Thereafter, some strengthening is likely as Gabrielle moves on the northeastern side of an upper-level low into a lower shear region, at the same time the cyclone moves over warmer water. The new NHC intensity forecast shows Gabrielle reaching hurricane strength in about 5 days, which is consistent with the latest HWRF, NOAA corrected-consensus and COAMPS-TC models.

The initial motion is estimated at 325/8. For the next 5 days, Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge. An increase in forward speed is expected due to the gradient between an upper-level low to the west and the ridge to the northeast. The latest models have shifted a little to the west for the point of recurvature in about 5 days, and the official forecast splits the difference between the previous NHC forecast and the latest various consensus models in the day 4 to 5 time period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 21.0N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 12H  05/0600Z 21.7N  34.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 24H  05/1800Z 22.8N  35.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 36H  06/0600Z 24.2N  37.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 48H  06/1800Z 26.1N  39.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 72H  07/1800Z 30.0N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  08/1800Z 33.0N  47.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)
120H  09/1800Z 36.5N  48.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Wed Sep 04,  2019

A late-arriving ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed peak surface winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and satellite imagery since then indicates a marked increase in the deep convection, albeit sheared to the northeast of the well-defined low-level center noted in the scatterometer data. Based on these wind data and a satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle , the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial motion is 310/09 kt.

The initial position was adjusted slightly to the southwest of the previous positions based on the aforementioned scatterometer data. This has resulted in the new forecast track being shifted a little to the left of the previous advisory track at all forecast times. For the next 5 days, Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break in the Bermuda-Azores high-pressure ridge located between 40W-50W longitude.

The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA. During the entire forecast period, Gabrielle is forecast to remain in a marginally conducive environment characterized by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, SSTs of 26-27 deg C, and dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent. As a result, only slight strengthening is forecast through 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 19.6N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 12H  04/1800Z 20.3N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 24H  05/0600Z 21.1N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 36H  05/1800Z 22.1N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 48H  06/0600Z 23.4N  37.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 72H  07/0600Z 27.5N  41.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)
 96H  08/0600Z 31.5N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.Georges, Bermuda)
120H  09/0600Z 35.5N  47.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019

Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better defined during the day, with rainbands forming on the eastern side of the circulation. This structure is good enough for a tropical depression and the initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, which agrees with earlier ASCAT passes that showed 25-30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. A general northwestward motion is anticipated during the next several days, faster by the weekend, as the system is steered by a strengthening eastern Atlantic ridge. One source of uncertainty in the future track is how much the cyclone is affected by a developing mid-level low around 25N45W in a few days. This feature could briefly induce a north-northwestward motion on Friday, and later west-northwestward on day 5 depending on exactly how close the new tropical cyclone gets to the mid-level low. For now, it is best not to bite off on any particular model solution, since the intensity and depth of the cyclone isn’t certain at this range. Thus, the forecast is close to the Atlantic model consensus TVCA, shaded a bit on the fast side assuming the system keeps some vertical depth.

Although the depression is forecast to be in a low-shear environment during the next couple of days, marginal water temperatures should keep the strengthening rate modest. The intensity forecast is complicated beyond that point due to the system’s interaction with the mid-level low, drier air in the mid-levels, and increasing waters temperatures. This mixed bag of factors makes the forecast rather murky, with any intensity changes at longer range having low predictability at this point. Therefore, the forecast is leveled off at long range, similar to the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA, but this uncertain forecast could require a great deal of revision later tonight or tomorrow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 19.0N  32.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 12H  04/0600Z 19.7N  33.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 24H  04/1800Z 20.4N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 36H  05/0600Z 21.4N  34.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 48H  05/1800Z 22.4N  35.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 72H  06/1800Z 26.2N  38.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Mindelo, Cape Verde)
 96H  07/1800Z 30.0N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)
120H  08/1800Z 34.0N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.Georges, Bermuda)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 3, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located just north of Grand Bahama Island. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 2, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located near Grand Bahama Island.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico have become more concentrated since last night. Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the surface circulation associated with the low has also become better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next two or three days while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 2, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located over Grand Bahama Island.

A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

If this storm system is named, it will be Tropical Storm Gabriella.

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