NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019
An ASCAT-C scatterometer pass around 0310 UTC indicated a few wind vectors of 38-40 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Allowing for some undersampling by the instrument, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The overall convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has changed little over the past 6 hours.
Fernand’s motion is slowly westward at 270/05 kt. Fernand is expected to be steered westward this morning by a broad deep-layer ridge that extends across the entire southern United States, followed by a west-northwestward motion tonight and Thursday. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to move inland over northeastern Mexico by this evening, and then dissipate quickly over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies down the middle of track guidance envelope.
Fernand has been experiencing moderate easterly to southeasterly vertical wind shear and ingesting dry air in the southeastern semicircle. These unfavorable conditions are forecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours, resulting in little if any additional strengthening.
The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. Radar estimates from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Brownsville, Texas (KBRO), indicate that up to 10 inches of rainfall may have already occurred across portions of northeastern Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 23.1N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE La Pesca, Mexico) 12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE La Pesca, Mexico) 24H 05/0600Z 24.0N 99.2W 25 KT 30 MPH - Tropical Depression (El Carmen, Mexico) 36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 03, 2019
Scatterometer data near 1600 UTC showed an area of 35-kt winds about 90 n mi west of the center of Tropical Depression Seven, and based on this it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand. Satellite imagery indicates a gradual increase in organization, with a well-defined low cloud swirl on the southeast edge of a growing area of central convection, accompanied by a large outer band in the northwestern semicircle.
The initial motion is now 265/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward for the next 12 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the remainder of its lifetime. The new forecast track now lies near the various consensus models and calls for the center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in just over 24 h. Based mainly on the current position and motion, the new track is a little south of the previous track, and at this time it appears unlikely that watches or warnings will be needed for the lower Texas coast.
An environment of moderate easterly shear appears conducive for gradual strengthening before the cyclone moves into Mexico, and the new intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 45 kt near landfall. After landfall, Fernand should weaken, with the system dissipating completely over northeastern Mexico by 72 h. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.4N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE La Pesca, Mexico) 12H 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE La Pesca, Mexico) 24H 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE La Pesca, Mexico) 36H 05/0600Z 24.2N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Santander Jiménez, Mexico) 48H 05/1800Z 25.0N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Guadaloupe, Mexico) 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019
Overnight scatterometer wind data and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the broad low-pressure system located over the west-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better defined, but still lacks a well-defined center. However, the scatterometer indicated surface winds of 30-33 kt in the northwestern quadrant and observations from Buoy 42002 north of the center have been indicating wind speeds of 25-27 kt at 4-meter elevation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on Potential Cyclone Seven. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 260/06 kt. The general motion of the broad low is expected to be westward, being steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the southern United States. It is possible, however, that an apparent west-northwestward motion could occur if the low-level center redevelops farther north into the deep convection. The NHC forecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the consensus model TVCN.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during then next 36-48 hours before the low moves inland over northeastern Mexico. However, the broad and large circulation should prevent any rapid intensification from occurring. The official intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN consensus model.
The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 23.5N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE La Pesca, Mexico) 12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE La Pesca, Mexico) 24H 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE La Pesca, Mexico) 36H 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE La Pesca, Mexico) 48H 05/0600Z 24.3N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH - Tropical Depression (Abasolo, Mexico) 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 2, 2019
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located near Grand Bahama Island.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico have become more concentrated since last night. Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the surface circulation associated with the low has also become better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next two or three days while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 2, 2019
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located over Grand Bahama Island.
A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.
If this storm system is named, it will be Tropical Storm Fernand.
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