Tropical Storm Erin

Post Tropical Storm Erin Track 0500 Hours August 29 2019
Post Tropical Storm Erin Track 0500 Hours August 29 2019

 

Tropical Depession Erin Satellite 0500 Hours August 29 2019NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29, 2019

Satellite imagery (see Wednesday video below) and scatterometer data indicate that Erin is merging with a frontal system and is now an extratropical low. The low is expected to accelerate northeastward toward Nova Scotia over the next 24 h, and some slight intensification is expected during that time.

After 24 h, the system is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern Canada.

This is the last advisory on Erin from the National Hurricane Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 36.1N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 12H  29/1800Z 39.3N  69.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 24H  30/0600Z 44.3N  64.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (Moose Island, Nova Scotia)
 36H  30/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28, 2019

Erin Strong northerly shear has continued to take a toll on Erin, with the system becoming a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt, which is supported by earlier ASCAT data and observations from buoy 41001. Northwesterly shear should continue to prevent strengthening while the system remains over warm waters tonight. If deep convection does not return soon, the system is likely to become post-tropical. Erin or its remnants should merge with a frontal system on Thursday and it could strengthen due to baroclinic processes after that time. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for the system to become an extratropical gale in 24 hours, and is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Erin has turned northward or 360/11 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northeastward tonight ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. After that time, it is expected to accelerate north-northeastward until it merges with another extratropical low by late Friday. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 34.5N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Morehead City, NC)
 12H  29/0600Z 36.8N  71.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW (ENE Virginia Beach, VA)
 24H  29/1800Z 40.7N  68.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (ESE Nantucket, MA)
 36H  30/0600Z 45.3N  64.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (ESE Frasierville, Nova Scotia)
 48H  30/1800Z 50.5N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (Étamamiou, Quebec)
 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 28, 2019

Erin has become less organized this morning with the center exposed and becoming more removed from the remaining deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of these support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. The northwesterly shear that has been affecting Erin is forecast to decrease somewhat later today and tonight, but given the current structure of the system, little overall change in intensity is anticipated during that time. If convection does not re-develop closer to the center later today, Erin could become post-tropical. An alternate scenario is for the circulation to become elongated and lose definition as a mid- latitude trough approaches from the west. The global models suggest that the trough is likely to help Erin or its remnants deepen somewhat as an extratropical low on Thursday. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows little change in strength today, then indicates that Erin or its remnants will become an extratropical gale by 36 hours.

Erin is now moving north-northwestward at 11 kt. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on Erin turning northward and then northeastward by Thursday ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough. Erin or its remnants are forecast to accelerate and reach Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward, and the updated official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 33.6N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ENE Myrtle Beach, SC)
 12H  29/0000Z 35.5N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Nags Head, NC)
 24H  29/1200Z 39.0N  70.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ENE Atlantic City, NJ)
 36H  30/0000Z 43.8N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (E Yarmouth, Nova Scotia)
 48H  30/1200Z 48.9N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (S Shallop, Quebec)
 72H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 28, 2019

Tropical Storm Erin  GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery and recent microwave overpasses show that Erin’s surface center has once again become exposed to the north of a rather amorphous deep convective mass. Erin’s severely tilted structure is in response to persistent moderate west-northwesterly shear, indicated in the UW-CIMSS shear product. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory.

A series of microwave images during the past several hours indicate that the initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/5 kt, within the mid-level southerly flow produced by a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching the northeastern United States, and the Bermuda high to east-southeast. A turn toward the north while accelerating is forecast later today and Erin is expected to reach Nova Scotia, with a north-northeastward heading, by the end of the week. Only a minor adjustment, a bit slower than the previous advisory, was made in order to hedge closer to the TVCA multi-model consensus.

Statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show that the shear should diminish somewhat today while the system remains over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. This, should allow for some slight strengthening at that time. Thereafter, baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough and significantly decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause Erin to acquire extratropical characteristics, and complete the transition in 36 hours, as the Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast and global models unanimously predict.

Minor adjustments were made to the forecast wind radii based on the RVCN consensus radii model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 32.4N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Myrtle Beach, SC)
 12H  28/1800Z 33.9N  72.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Wilmington, NC)
 24H  29/0600Z 36.6N  70.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Virginia Beach, VA)
 36H  29/1800Z 40.7N  67.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (ENE Long Islamd, NY)
 48H  30/0600Z 45.3N  63.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (Walton, Nova Scotia)
 72H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27, 2019

Tropical Storm Erin  – Over the past several hours, the deep convection associated with the cyclone has been developing progressively closer to the center of circulation. And, at the time of this advisory, the convection is now covering a portion of the previously exposed low-level center. A late morning scatterometer pass showed winds just over 30 kt over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Since that time, the improved convective pattern has resulted in an increase in the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, indicating an initial intensity of 35 kt.

Erin  is still undergoing northerly shear, but possibly a little less now than it had been battling for the past couple of days. Little change in environmental conditions are expected over the next 36 hours, so some slight strengthening could occur during that time. After 24 hours, Erin will begin to interact with an approaching a mid-latitude trough over the northeastern United States. This should cause the storm to gradually acquire extratropical characteristics, and by 48 hours Erin is expected to have completed extratropical transition.

Erin continues to meander, with an initial motion of 270/3 kt. The approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to induce a northward motion of Erin tonight and then accelerate the storm to the northeast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the official forecast is close to the previous one, and near the corrected consensus HCCA. On this track, Erin will remain well offshore of the United States coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 31.9N  72.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Savannah, GA)
 12H  28/1200Z 33.1N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Myrtle Beach, SC)
 24H  29/0000Z 36.0N  71.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Nags Head, NC)
 36H  29/1200Z 39.4N  68.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Atlantic City, NJ)
 48H  30/0000Z 43.7N  65.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27, 2019

After a brief period when the center  was near the edge of the convection this morning, once again the northwesterly shear disrupted the cloud pattern, and the low-level center has become detached from the main thunderstorm activity. The Dvorak estimates have not changed and still support an initial intensity of 30 kt. Earlier ASCAT data also indicated some vectors of 30 kt in the southeast quadrant. Since the shear is not forecast to abate, only a small increase in intensity is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and should become extratropical while becoming absorbed by a larger trough.

The depression meandered all day, but it has now been moving slowly toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 6 knots. This motion is highly uncertain because it includes the back and forth shifting of the center from the edge of the convection during the past several hours. The southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should steer the cyclone northward and then northeastward with increasing forward speed over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little bit to the north in this advisory following the northward shift of the multimodel consensus TVCA and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 31.8N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Savannah, GA)
 12H  28/0600Z 32.7N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Myrtle Beach, SC)
 24H  28/1800Z 35.0N  72.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Buxton, NC)
 36H  29/0600Z 38.0N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 48H  29/1800Z 41.5N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (ESE Chatham, MA)
 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 27, 2019

The cloud pattern has improved a little since yesterday, and in fact, it looks more tropical on satellite today. The depression, however, continues to be sheared with the low-level center to the north of the convection. Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The northwesterly shear currently affecting the depression is expected to continue, and only a small increase in intensity is anticipated in the next couple of days. After that time, the shear will increase as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west, and the circulation will be over cooler waters. This should favor the cyclone to become extratropical and then become absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the end of the forecast period.

The depression has been moving very little, and it appears that during the past couple hours it has been meandering northward at about 2 kt. No significant motion is expected today with a slow north-northwestward or northward drift beginning tonight. In about a day, the southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should steer the cyclone northeastward with increasing forward speed over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is very close to the multimodel consensus TVCA and not significantly different from the previous official forecast.Tropical Storm Eric Wind Speeds 0800 Hours August 27 2019

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 31.2N  71.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Savannah, GA)
 12H  28/0000Z 31.3N  71.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Hog Bay, Bermuda)
 24H  28/1200Z 32.9N  71.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW  Hog Bay, Bermuda)
 36H  29/0000Z 35.0N  70.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Buxton, NC)
 48H  29/1200Z 38.0N  68.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 72H  30/1200Z 44.5N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (ESE Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia)
 96H  31/1200Z 50.0N  52.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (ESE Joe Batt's Arm, Newfoundland)
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 27, 2019

The satellite presentation during the past several hours shows some curved banding improvement associated with the cyclone, particularly in the southeast quadrant, however, the circulation is still poorly defined. In fact, imagery reveals multiple swirls rotating about a large circulation. No changes to the subjective satellite intensity estimates, from both TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The 25-30 kt of westerly shear, indicated by the UW-CIMSS shear product, is forecast to decrease somewhat around mid-period while the system remains over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. This, along with some baroclinic forcing in response to an approaching mid-latitude trough from the northeast United States, should allow for the cyclone to modestly strengthening. The Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast, and the global models, including the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery, now indicate the cyclone completing an extratropical transition in 3 days, and the official forecast is adjusted accordingly. Afterward, as extratropical low quickly approaches eastern Canada, the large-scale models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by a larger baroclinic system embedded in the westerlies, and this is also indicated in the official forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be a generally southward drift, or 125/2 kt, within weak low to mid-level steering flow residing between the Bermuda high to the east and a mid-level ridge over the mid-Atlantic states. The depression is forecast to move little through today as it remains in the aforementioned weak steering current. Afterward, a mid-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move toward the northeastern United States on Wednesday, and should induce a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed, away from the eastern seaboard. Only a slight adjustment to the left of the previous forecast was made to align more with the reliable NOAA HCCA and TVCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 31.0N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Savannah, GA)
 12H  27/1800Z 31.4N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Savannah, GA)
 24H  28/0600Z 32.5N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Savannah, GA)
 36H  28/1800Z 34.1N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (E Morehead City, NC)
 48H  29/0600Z 36.7N  69.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Chatham, MA)
 72H  30/0600Z 42.9N  63.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0600Z 49.8N  55.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26, 2019

The depression remains poorly organized this evening with the edge of the cyclone’s deep convection displaced nearly 90 n mi southeast of the low level center due to northwesterly shear. A recent scatterometer pass indicates an initial intensity of 30 kt, with winds of 25 kt or greater being confined to the southeastern quadrant.

The low-level center has been drifting eastward this evening and the initial motion is 100/3 kt. The steering flow surrounding the cyclone is expected to stay weak for the next 24 hours, resulting in a slow, erratic motion. After 24 hours, a mid-latitude trough crossing the eastern United States will accelerate the system to the northeast, keeping it well to the east of the United States coast. The latest forecast is similar to the previous one, and near the corrected consensus HCCA.

The wind shear over the depression is forecast to decrease somewhat over the next 48 hours while the system remains over warm waters. This should allow for the depression to intensify into a tropical storm during that time. After 48 hours, strong upper level southwesterly winds ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should initiate a gradual extratropical transition of the cyclone. After 96 hours, the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger system embedded in the westerlies.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 31.5N  72.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Savannah, GA)
 12H  27/1200Z 31.6N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Savannah, GA)
 24H  28/0000Z 32.1N  71.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Savannah, GA)
 36H  28/1200Z 33.4N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (E Morehead City, NC)
 48H  29/0000Z 35.5N  70.7W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nags Head, NC)
 72H  30/0000Z 41.3N  65.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Chatham, MA)
 96H  31/0000Z 48.1N  57.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (Muddy Hole, Newfoundland )
120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26, 2019

The Tropical Depressioncirculation associated with the area of low pressure that has been tracked across the western Atlantic the past several days has become better defined during the past 24 hours. The associated convection, which is located well to the southeast of the low-level center due to shear, has also become more persistent and organized into a band today. As a result, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial wind speed has been set at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. There were a few 35-kt vectors in the ASCAT-A overpass but those data appeared to be rain-inflated.

The depression is currently located over warm water but within an environment of moderate westerly shear, which is likely to continue during the next day or so. Although some slight strengthening is forecast, the shear is likely to prohibit significant deepening during that time. After 36 h, the shear is forecast to decrease while the system moves northeastward and some modest strengthening is anticipated. Later in the period, an approaching mid-latitude trough may also help to strengthen the cyclone due to baroclinic processes, and the system is forecast to become extratropical in 3 to 4 days, and should be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 080/2 kt. The depression is forecast to drift eastward or northeastward during the next day or so as it remains in an area of weak steering flow between a couple of mid-level anticyclones. As the aforementioned mid-latitude trough approaches the northeastern United States on Wednesday, it should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward well east of the east coast of the United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, but there are some differences in how fast it will be ejected northeastward. The NHC track forecast leans toward the slower ECMWF solution during the first day or so, then closer to the consensus aids later in the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 31.7N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Savannah, GA)
 12H  27/0600Z 31.8N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Savannah, GA)
 24H  27/1800Z 32.1N  71.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Charleston, SC)
 36H  28/0600Z 32.9N  71.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Myrtle Beach, SC)
 48H  28/1800Z 34.6N  71.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (E Morehead City, NC)
 72H  29/1800Z 40.3N  66.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Long Island, NY)
 96H  30/1800Z 47.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St Paul Island, Nova Scotia)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 26, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dorian, which is approaching the Lesser Antilles.

1. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the low-pressure area located about 300 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become better defined since yesterday, and is producing winds to near tropical storm force well southeast of its center.

The associated thunderstorm activity is also showing signs of organization. Conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form later today while the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the United States east coast. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 26, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dorian, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 275 miles south- southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a little better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form later today or Tuesday while the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the United States east coast.

The reconnaissance aircraft mission for today has been canceled.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 25, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

1. An elongated area of low pressure centered about 300 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has changed little in organization this evening. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United States. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Monday, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 25, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

1. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation of an elongated low-pressure area centered about 350 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become a little better defined. While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently poorly organized, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United States. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled for this afternoon was canceled. However, another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Monday, if necessary. Additional information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 25, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:  The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a trough of low pressure that extends from the southern Florida peninsula northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United States.

Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 24, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

1. A trough of low pressure extending from the coast of south-central Florida northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves northeastward over the Atlantic, offshore of the southeastern United States coast.

Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 24, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed Tropical Depression Five, located about 800 miles east-southeast of Barbados.

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from the southern Florida peninsula northeastward into the Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and east of the central Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves northeastward over the Atlantic offshore of the southeastern United States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

 

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1120 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the low-pressure area in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, the formation of Tropical Depression Five, and the aircraft for the Florida low. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed Tropical Depression Five, located about 800 miles east-southeast of Barbados.

1. A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends eastward over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Significant development of the low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern or central Florida peninsula.

However, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development once the low moves off the east-central coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon has been canceled. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 23, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles west of the Azores.

Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm activity is limited at this time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 23,  2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores. 2. Recent satellite wind data indicate that a low-pressure area has formed in association with a tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional development of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 23, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in association with a tropical wave located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves generally westward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

If this storm system is named it will be Tropical Storm Erin.

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Video: Tropical Storm Dorian + Erin projected track

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