Tropical Storm Chantal

Tropical Storm Chantal Track 2300 Hours August 20 2019
Tropical Storm Chantal Track 2300 Hours August 20 2019
Tropical Storm Chantal Satellite 2300 Hours August 20 2019
Tropical Storm Chantal Satellite 2300 Hours August 20, 2019

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20, 2019 (see Tuesday 11:00pm  video below)

Recent scatterometer wind data and passive microwave satellite images indicate that the small low-pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring for the past few days has developed a well-defined surface wind circulation and contains tropical-storm-force winds south of the cyclone’s center. Therefore, the low has become Tropical Storm Chantal. 

The initial motion estimate is 085/19 kt. NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement that Chantal will move eastward around the northern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and gradually slow down during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to drop southward around the eastern portion of the ridge, possibly stalling over warmer waters. The NHC forecast track lies close to the consensus models HCCA and TVCN.

Chantal is expected to remain in a moderate southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear regime for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a significant decrease in the shear through 120 h. After 48 hours, the southward motion is also expected to move Chantal over warmer water with SSTs around 27C. However, mid-level moisture is expected to be quite sparse with humidity values forecast to be less than 40 percent based on the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance. Therefore, little or no significant intensification is expected throughout the forecast period, and the official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Although the official forecast calls for Chantal to remain a tropical cyclone through the 120 h, the abundance of dry air that the cyclone will be moving through could result in erosion of the deep convection sooner than currently expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 40.2N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE New York, NY)
 12H  21/1200Z 40.3N  52.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE New York, NY)
 24H  22/0000Z 40.2N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE New Shoreham, RI)
 36H  22/1200Z 39.0N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 48H  23/0000Z 37.4N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Miguel Island)
 72H  24/0000Z 34.9N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Miguel Island)
 96H  25/0000Z 34.6N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Miguel Island)
120H  26/0000Z 36.0N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW São Miguel Island)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 20, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low-pressure system is located more than 400 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Associated thunderstorm activity continues to shows signs of organization, and recent satellite data indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, any further development of this low could result in the formation of a tropical cyclone while it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 20, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low-pressure system is located almost 400 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. While the associated thunderstorm activity shows signs of organization, recent satellite wind data indicates the system does not currently have a well-defined circulation. Significant development of this low is unlikely as it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 20, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low-pressure system located more than 300 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, continues to produce an area of thunderstorms east of the center. Significant development of this low is unlikely as it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph, away from the United States and Canada.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 19, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located more than 200 miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, is producing a small area of thunderstorm activity northeast of the center. Significant development of this system is unlikely as it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph, away from the United States.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with a low-pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Significant development of this system is now unlikely as it moves east-northeastward away from the United States.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 18,  2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small low-pressure system located over eastern North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any tropical development today is expected to be limited due to the system’s proximity to land. By tonight, the low is expected to move northeastward over the Atlantic, where some further organization could occur before the system encounters cooler waters in a day or so.

The low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in coastal portions of North Carolina through this evening. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 17, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small low-pressure system located along the South Carolina coast about midway between Myrtle Beach and Charleston is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Tropical development of this system is expected to be slow to occur tonight and Sunday due to proximity to land as the disturbance moves northeastward along or near the coast of the Carolinas.

By early Monday, however, the low is expected to move over the warmer Atlantic waters, where some further organization could occur. The low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in eastern portions of South and North Carolina through Sunday. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 17,  2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough is producing a band of cloudiness and showers extending from the northeast Gulf of Mexico northeastward across the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The shower activity is currently most concentrated near a small area of low pressure located along the trough near the South Carolina coast. Tropical development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow as the disturbance moves northeastward along the eastern coast of the United States with increasing forward speed during the few days.

Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and northeastern Florida are associated with a weak surface trough. Tropical development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph near the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina during the next few days. Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 16, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 

1. A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and across northeastern Florida. Any tropical development of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next few days while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph near the coasts of Georgia, South and North Carolina.

Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region. Please see information from your local National Weather Service office or the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

If this storm system is named, it will be Tropical Storm Chantal.

Article Resources:

Recent Tropical Cruise Weather:

Video: Tropical Storm Chantal forms in the Atlantic, poses no threat to Florida

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