Tropical Storm Ivo

Tropical Depression Ivo Track 0800 Hours August 25 2019
Tropical Depression Ivo Track 0800 Hours August 25 2019

Tropical Storm Ivo Satellite 0200 Hours August 24 2019Tropical Storm Ivo  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25, 2019

The initial motion is 340/07 kt. Ivo has slowed down due to the system weakening and becoming vertically shallow. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected today and this evening, followed by a turn toward the north late tonight or early Monday morning. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly clustered consensus models.

The initial intensity of 25 kt is based mainly on continuity with the previous forecast. The inner-core region of Ivo’s circulation has been devoid of any convection for more than 12 hours. What little bit of thunderstorm activity that does exist well to the north-northwest and west of the center is not showing any signs of feeding back onto the cyclone and, therefore, Ivo has degenerated into a remnant low-pressure system. Additional spin down of the shallow vortex is forecast due to the cyclone moving over sub-22 deg C sea-surface temperatures and continuing to ingest cooler and stable air, with dissipation likely by Tuesday.

Although Ivo is no longer a tropical cyclone, significant swells generated by the low are still affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells will continue into tonight and could cause dangerous rip currents before subsiding on Monday. See products from your local weather office for additional information.

This is the last NHC advisory on Ivo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 26.0N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Punta Abreojos, MX)
 12H  26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25, 2019

Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 340/10 kt, and that motion is forecast to continue today. A turn to the north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is still expected to occur on Monday, and that motion should continue into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close a blend of the consensus models HCCA, TVCN, and TVCX.

The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier ASCAT surface wind data. Although a small area of deep convection has redeveloped about 100 n mi north of the low-level center, that thunderstorm activity is too far away to provide any positive feedback onto the circulation. Thus, Ivo basically remains devoid of any significant organized convection, and this downward trend is expected to continue for the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves of waters cooler than 22C. As a result of the expected spin-down of the shallow vortex, Ivo is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday.

Although Ivo is weakening, significant swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents, and gradually subside on Monday. See products from your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 25.5N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Punta Abreojos, MX)
 12H  26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Deep convection associated with Ivo has made a comeback during the past several hours, with a large convective mass now near the center over the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little more since the last advisory, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly conservative 35 kt. The cyclone is moving steadily over cooler sea surface temperatures and continued weakening is expected. The new intensity forecast therefore follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h.

The initial motion is 330/8. The subtropical ridge to the east should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some decrease in forward speed before the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track. Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days, high swells continue to propagate northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja California peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 21.8N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 12H  25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 24H  25/1200Z 24.6N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WNW Puerto San Carlos, MX)
 36H  26/0000Z 26.0N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z 26.8N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23, 2019

An observation at 1430 UTC from Clarion Island, Mexico, indicated sustained winds of 53 kt and a wind gust to 66 kt on that island. Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued with the initial intensity increased to 55 kt. There has been a slight upward adjustment of the forecast intensity through 24 hours to account for the initial wind speed. However, the remainder of the forecast reasoning remains unchanged, and no changes were made to the track for this advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1600Z 18.9N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Socorro Island, MX)
 24H  24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Socorro Island, MX)
 36H  25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto San Carlos, MX)
 48H  25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto San Carlos, MX)
 72H  26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23, 2019

Unexpectedly, stronger than anticipated northeasterly shear affected Ivo during the past 12 hours or so, and the low-level center became detached from the main area of deep convection. The center can be clearly seen on microwave and conventional imagery, and it is located very near Clarion Island, Mexico. An automatic Mexican Navy weather station at that location reported that the surface pressure has been falling and has measured gusts to 39 kt. This information is very valuable to diagnose the structure of the cyclone.

Despite the deterioration of the cloud pattern, a recent ASCAT pass measured a peak wind of 50 kt associated with Ivo, but this value was confined to a small area in the southeast quadrant. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 50 kt, which is also a value close to the Dvorak estimates, or perhaps a tad higher.

The cyclone is expected to be over warm waters for about a day or so, and given its vigorous circulation, Ivo could maintain the same intensity for the next 12 hours. After that time, Ivo should begin to weaken over cooler waters. Unanimously, all the models weaken the cyclone and so does the NHC forecast, and by 72 hours or sooner, Ivo should have degenerated into a remnant low.

The center is moving toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone managed to find a weakness in the ridge, and since the steering pattern is not expected to change, this general motion is anticipated to continue until dissipation in 4 days. The NHC forecast is on the left edge of the guidance envelope and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 17.9N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Clarion Island, MX)
 12H  23/1800Z 19.0N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Socorro Island, MX)
 24H  24/0600Z 20.5N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto Vallarta, MX)
 36H  24/1800Z 22.0N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 48H  25/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto San Carlos, MX)
 72H  26/0600Z 27.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22, 2019

The cyclone continues to gradually improve in the organization. Microwave data show that there is a small eye trying to form beneath Ivo’s small central dense overcast, and satellite intensity estimates are rising. Consequently, the initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, which matches the TAFB/SAB fixes. Further strengthening is anticipated in the short term since Ivo has a developing inner core and is over very warm waters with moderate shear.

The models are pretty consistent about showing an increase in shear by tomorrow while the cyclone turns to the northwest. Thus the intensity forecast is leveled off at that time, then a slow weakening is shown beyond 36 hrs Ivo begins its inevitable decline over cooler eastern Pacific waters and in more stable air. Remnant low status is anticipated just after 72 h since Ivo will be over 23C or cooler waters by then. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast except for a small rise at 12 h to account for the recent initial intensity increase.

Similar to many eastern Pacific cyclones this year, the center has re-formed a bit to the south in the central dense overcast, yielding an initial motion of 270/10. The storm should turn northwestward tomorrow due to an upper-level trough dropping over the eastern Pacific south of California, which helps erode a mid-level ridge over mainland Mexico. The ridge stays weak through the weekend, causing Ivo to move north-northwestward until dissipation. The eastward model trend at long-range continues, so the NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. It should be noted that none of the guidance still show a direct threat to Mexico at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 15.7N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Socorro Island, MX)
 12H  23/0000Z 16.4N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Clarion Island, MX)
 24H  23/1200Z 17.9N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Clarion Island, MX)
 36H  24/0000Z 19.5N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Clarion Island, MX)
 48H  24/1200Z 21.2N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 72H  25/1200Z 25.0N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Juanico, MX)
 96H  26/1200Z 28.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22, 2019

The cloud pattern associated with Ivo is a little better organized and consists of a circular mass of convection surrounded by a well- defined cyclonically curved band. The center appears to be more embedded under the canopy than several hours ago. Despite the improvement, recent scatterometer data show that the winds have not increased yet and are between 40 and 45 kt. Because the cloud pattern has improved since then, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is the consensus among TAFB, SAB and SATCON estimates.

The environment during the next 36 hours should favor Ivo to strengthen a little more and reach hurricane status. Thereafter, Ivo should begin to encounter dry air and cooler waters, resulting in gradual weakening. By day 4, Ivo should be over 20 degree Celsius waters and become a remnant low void of deep convection. The intensity forecast follows very closely the HCCA solution and is a little higher than the consensus.

Satellite data suggest that the center of Ivo has either moved a little bit south of due west or it has reformed closer to the convection with a decrease in forward speed. However, an average of the past 6 to 12 hours gives a motion toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Ivo should be reaching the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge in 12 to 24 hours, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone more toward the west-northwest and northwest. This general motion should then continue until the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little to the right of the previous one, but it is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope and in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model average TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 15.8N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Socorro Island, MX)
 12H  22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Socorro Island, MX)
 24H  23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Clarion Island, MX)
 36H  23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Clarion Island, MX)
 48H  24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 72H  25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Juanico, MX)
 96H  26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21, 2019

Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the low-level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Ivo’s initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period.

Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And, although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear. This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE  Socorro Island, MX)
 12H  22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Socorro Island, MX)
 24H  22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Clarion Island, MX)
 36H  23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Clarion Island, MX)
 48H  23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Clarion Island, MX)
 72H  24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 96H  25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW San Juanico, MX)
120H  26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Post-tropical (W Campamento Militar Isla Guadalupe, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21, 2019

Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

The depression’s initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model guidance is in good agreement that weakness will develop in this ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression. This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period.Ivo Tropical Storm Force Winds

The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30 C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours and is then on the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days, the cyclone will move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (WSW Acapulco, MX)
 12H  22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Socorro Island, MX)
 24H  22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Socorro Island, MX)
 36H  23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Clarion Island, MX)
 48H  23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Clarion Island, MX)
 72H  24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cabo San Lucas, MX)
 96H  25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Puerto San Carlos, MX)
120H  26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Campamento Militar Isla Guadalupe, MX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Aug 21,  2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that a tropical cyclone is developing several hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. If this trend continues, then advisories will be initiated later this morning for a tropical depression or tropical storm. This system could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Aug 20, 2019

Corrected to add High Seas Forecast information For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low-pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or two.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 20, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low-pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although this system has not become better organized since yesterday, environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the low moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system could produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Aug 20,  2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1.

A low-pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system could produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Aug 19, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low-pressure system located less than 200 miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of cloudiness of thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Aug 19, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for development during the next couple of days and a tropical depression is likely to form by mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 18,  2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala border remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 18,  2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala have changed little in organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 17,  2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by early next week, and a tropical depression is expected to form on Monday or Tuesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. NOAA and the National Science Foundation are currently conducting a research mission in this system, and the data from the mission indicate that the circulation remains broad and elongated, and surface pressures are relatively high. Still, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 17, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Aug 16, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 16, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Aug 16, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the gradual development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central America during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Aug 14, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated low-pressure system located more than 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds become unfavorable. This disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 13, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated low-pressure system located more than 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week before upper-level winds become unfavorable. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
at around 10 mph during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Aug 13, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated trough of low pressure located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week before upper-level winds become unfavorable. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 13, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Henriette, which has become a remnant low located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with an elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Aug 13, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Henriette, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with an elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Aug 12, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located just over 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with an elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 12, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located just over 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Aug 12, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Henriette, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located just over 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves west- northwestward at around 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 8, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development through the middle of next week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

If this storm system is named, it will be Tropical Storm Ivo.

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