Tropical Storm Henriette

Tropical Depression Henriette Track 0200 Hours August 13 2019
Tropical Depression Henriette Track 0200 Hours August 13 2019

ropical Depression Henriette Satellite 0200 Hours August 13 2019Tropical Storm Henriette – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 13, 2019

Tropical Storm Henriette’s (see video below) Deep convection associated with Henriette dissipated shortly after the release of the previous advisory, with the cyclone becoming a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the winds associated with the cyclone have weakened quickly and these data support an initial intensity of 25 kt. Henriette is heading toward cooler waters and a more stable environment and it is unlikely that organized deep convection will return. As a result, the system will continue to quickly weaken and it is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today.

The depression is being steered west-northwestward at about 11 kt to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. The low-level ridge is forecast to remain intact during the next day or so and Henriette or its remnants should continue on a west-northwestward heading until dissipation occurs on Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is essentially an update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 21.1N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression - (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 12H  13/1800Z 21.5N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH - Tropical Depression - (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  14/0600Z 22.0N 119.1W   15 KT  15 MPH - Tropical Depression - (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Tropical Storm Henriette’s Dry air and northeasterly shear have been steadily eroding the deep convection around the center of Henriette today. The low-level center is exposed and the only deep convection remaining is confined to the western semicircle. Despite the degradation in the satellite presentation, a recent ASCAT pass showed that tropical- storm- force winds are still occurring in a small area near the center of the compact storm. Based on this data, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The initial motion is 290/11 kt. This motion will continue through tonight while the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the system weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA which lies on the southern side of the other consensus aids.

Dry, stable air and ongoing shear should limit convection over the cyclone while the circulation remains over marginally favorable SSTs. This lack of convection should cause a weakening trend to commence very soon. By Tuesday, Henriette will move over SSTs below 26 C, which, combined with the other unfavorable environmental conditions, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday. The official forecast calls for a little faster weakening of Henriette than the previous one, and is near the various multi-model consensus solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 20.3N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm - (NWN San Benedicto Island, Mexico)
 12H  13/0600Z 20.9N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression - (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 24H  13/1800Z 21.6N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression - (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  14/0600Z 22.1N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH - Tropical Depression - (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 12, 2019

Tropical Storm Henriette is a sheared tropical cyclone, with microwave and first-light visible satellite imagery revealing a low level center that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection. The overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past several hours, and therefore the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. This is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass showing a very small area of 30-35 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation.

The initial motion is 295/10 kt. Henriette is expected to continue this general motion for the next 24 hours as it is steered by a mid-level ridge that extends from northern Mexico to the north of the cyclone. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the system weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast is slightly south of the previous one through 24 hours, due to a more southward initial position. Beyond 24 hours, the official forecast is very near the previous one, and near the middle of the consensus aids.

Northeasterly shear and dry air over the northern portion of the cyclone should continue to keep the low level center near the edge of the deep convection into tonight, preventing any further strengthening. By 24 hours, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm and move into a more stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to lose its convection and weaken on Tuesday, with the system likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday night. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous one, and is in agreement with the various dynamical and consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 19.7N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm - (NWN San Benedicto Island, Mexico)
 12H  13/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm - (NWN San Benedicto Island, Mexico)
 24H  13/1200Z 20.9N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression - (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 36H  14/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression - (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12, 2019

Deep convection has continued to burst over the western portion of the cyclone overnight. Although the system is sheared with the center located near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, a couple of ASCAT passes have shown a very small area of 30-35 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation. These winds extend no more than about 15-20 n mi from the center, but based on these data the initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Tropical Storm Henriette becomes the eighth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin this season.

The ASCAT data also assisted in locating the center this morning, and recent fixes show that Henriette continues to move west- northwestward or 295/12 kt. The tropical storm should move west-northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. As Henriette weakens, it is likely to turn westward within the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 36 hours but has been adjusted southward at 48 hours to be closer to the various consensus aids.

Henriette is not anticipated to strengthen much more. Although the system is predicted to remain over warm waters and within an area of light to moderate northeasterly shear today, nearby dry mid-level air is likely to prevent significant strengthening. By Tuesday morning, Henriette will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable airmass. This should lead to weakening, and the cyclone is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low within 48 hours, with dissipation occurring shortly thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 19.5N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm - (NWN San Benedicto Island, Mexico)
 12H  12/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm - (NWN San Benedicto Island, Mexico)
 24H  13/0600Z 21.0N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm - (NWN San Benedicto Island, Mexico)
 36H  13/1800Z 21.7N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression - (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  14/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression - (WSW Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 11, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated near the center of a small low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite images also indicate that the low is gradually becoming better defined. If this recent development trend continues, then advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical storm later tonight while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant development by early Tuesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather located about 1000 miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. Thereafter, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is no longer expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…0 percent.

3. A disturbance located little a less than 1000 miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 10, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure. This system has about a day or two to become a tropical depression as it moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is beginning to merge with the larger disturbance to its north. Development of this system is becoming less likely.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

3. An area of disturbed weather located a little less than 1000 miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula is currently disorganized. However, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle next week as this disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 10, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure located about 100 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible during the next couple of days and a tropical depression could form while the system moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system during the next day or so should be slow to occur due to its close proximity to the disturbance near the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. An area of disturbed weather is located a little less than 1000 miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle next week as this disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 10, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure located about 100 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could still favor some gradual development during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

3. A tropical wave located a little less than 1000 miles south- southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation early next week while the system moves westward or west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a small low pressure system is located about 100 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. This disturbance remains disorganized and the thunderstorm activity is limited at this time. However, environmental conditions could still favor some gradual development during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located a little less than 1000 miles south- southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation early next week while the system moves westward or west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Aug 9, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area of low pressure is hugging the southern coast of Mexico, and some of the rainbands are already spreading inland over the state of Oaxaca. This system remains disorganized, but environmental conditions could favor some gradual development during the next 2 or 3 days while it moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that time conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development through the middle of next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 9, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system through early next week while the system moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless
of development, the disturbance could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development through the middle of next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Aug 9, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have become a little
more concentrated overnight. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for some additional development over the weekend and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of
days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 8, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. The area of cloudiness and thunderstorms previously located south of Central America has moved westward and is now over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A low-pressure area is forecast to form within this area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by this weekend. Conditions are still somewhat favorable for a tropical depression to form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development through the middle of next week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Aug 8, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms continues along and to the south of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and eastern Mexico. A low-pressure area is forecast to form within this area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by this weekend, and environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for the formation of a tropical depression by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Some thunderstorm activity is expected to continue onshore the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday, producing locally heavy rainfall, especially in mountainous areas. These rains are forecast to gradually spread westward along the coast of southeastern Mexico over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development through the middle of next week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 8, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has developed along and to the south of the coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua. A low-pressure area is forecast to form within this area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by this weekend, and environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for the formation of a tropical depression by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some thunderstorm activity is expected to move onshore the coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua tonight and Friday, producing locally heavy rainfall, especially in mountainous areas. These rains are forecast to gradually spread westward along the coast of southeastern Mexico over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development through the middle of next week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Aug 8, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low-pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by the end of the week or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 7, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low-pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by the end of the week or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, south of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Aug 7, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low-pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, within a couple of hundred miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Aug 7, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low-pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for the development of this system over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 6, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low-pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for the development of this system over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Aug 6, 2019

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low-pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico toward the end of the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for the development of this system over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

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Video: Tropical storm HENRIETTE forms in the Eastern Pacific

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