Tropical Storm Barry

Tropical Storm Barry Track 1300 Hours July 14 2019
Tropical Storm Barry Track 1300 Hours July 14 2019

Tropical Storm Barry Satellite 1300 Hours July 14 2019

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14, 2019

Tropical Storm Barry’s (see Sunday video below) radar and satellite presentations have continued to degrade, which is typical for an inland tropical cyclone. However, some curved rain bands producing sustained tropical-storm-force winds still exist over water and along the south-central and southwestern coastal areas of Louisiana.

Data from the Ft. Polk WSR-88D radar indicated average Doppler velocity values of 50-59 kt at 11,000-14,000 ft between 0900-1200 UTC this morning over the Gulf of Mexico, which would yield equivalent surface winds of 40-45 kt. Thus, Barry’s intensity was maintained at 40 kt at the 1200 UTC synoptic time. Since then, Doppler velocities have decreased to around 45 kt at 11,000 ft and surface winds of 34 kt have recently been reported at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana. Therefore, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt at the 1500 UTC advisory time. The pressure of 1006 mb is based on nearby surface observations.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to continue moving northward today and tonight into a break in the subtropical ridge, and turn toward north-northeast and northeast late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various simple consensus models and the NOAA HCCA model.

Barry will weaken further today as it continues to move inland, and it should become a tropical depression by tonight if not sooner. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding, including river flooding, continues from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry’s path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises.
  • 2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue along portions of the Louisiana coast for a few more hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 31.8N  93.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - (Belmont, LA)
 12H  15/0000Z 32.8N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - (Cotton Valley, LA)
 24H  15/1200Z 34.2N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - (Amity, AR)
 36H  16/0000Z 35.7N  93.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - (Sand Gap, AR)
 48H  16/1200Z 37.4N  91.9W   20 KT  25 MPH - (Houston, MO)
 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14, 2019

Tropical Storm Barry continues to move farther inland with the center now located over western Louisiana. Surface observations indicate that the minimum pressure has risen to 1005 mb, and the maximum winds are estimated to be near 40 kt, based on Doppler radar velocity data, but this intensity estimate could be a little generous. These lingering tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a convective band over water and near the coast of Louisiana south and southeast of the center.

The tropical storm has wobbled a bit to the left recently, but smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 335/7 kt. The system is expected to turn northward later today toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and north to north-northeast motion is expected until it dissipates in two to three days. The NHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the previous one, due to the initial position being further west than anticipated.

Tropical Storm Barry Greatest Flash Flood Risk
Tropical Storm Barry Greatest Flash Flood Risk

Barry is forecast to weaken as it continues inland, and it should become a tropical depression later today. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Barry should lose much of its deep convection and become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours and dissipate entirely shortly after that over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding continues from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Although Barry is inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation is still occurring along the coast of south-central Louisiana.
  • 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry’s path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises.
  • 3. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue along portions of the Louisiana coast for several more hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 31.4N  93.4W   40 KT  45 MPH  - Tropical Storm (ESE Florien, LA)
 12H  14/1800Z 32.4N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - (WSW Koran, LA)
 24H  15/0600Z 33.8N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - (WSW Blevins, AR)
 36H  15/1800Z 35.2N  93.4W   25 KT  30 MPH - (ESE New Blaine, AR)
 48H  16/0600Z 36.7N  92.8W   20 KT  25 MPH - (WSW McClurg, MO)
 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13, 2019

Tropical Storm Barry  Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Barry moved inland across Marsh Island and Intracoastal City, Louisiana around 16-18Z. Since then, the system has moved farther inland and weakening has started. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on recent observations from Eugene Island and Cypremort Point.

The initial motion is now 330/6. Barry should continue north-northwestward and northward through Louisiana for the next 30-36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should encounter the westerlies and turn north-northeastward before they dissipate. The new NHC forecast track has changed little from the previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models.

Barry should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and it is currently forecast to weaken below tropical-storm strength in about 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone should degenerate to a remnant low between 48-72 h and dissipate between 72-96 h. It should be noted that by Sunday morning the strongest winds will likely be occurring well away from the center over the Louisiana coast and the coastal waters.

Barry made landfall as a hurricane. However, due to the poor center definition, the exact times and locations will be determined in post-analysis.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.
  • 2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely across portions of south-central and southeast Louisiana into Mississippi through Sunday as Barry moves farther inland. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley.
  • 3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
  • FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  13/2100Z 30.1N  92.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (Andrew, LA)
     12H  14/0600Z 31.0N  92.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Westport, LA)
     24H  14/1800Z 32.2N  93.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (Lucky, LA)
     36H  15/0600Z 33.6N  93.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - (ESE Bluff City, AR)
     48H  15/1800Z 35.0N  93.1W   25 KT  30 MPH - (WSW Casa, AR)
     72H  16/1800Z 38.5N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - (WSW Loose Creek, MO)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13, 2019

Tropical Storm Barry  – Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m. Doppler radar winds from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as well. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and 850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its less than classical appearance in satellite imagery. It should be noted that hurricane-force winds are limited to a small area east of the center, and that the upgrade to a hurricane means little in terms of the overall impacts from Barry.

Barry is now moving northwestward with an initial motion of 310/5. The center should cross the Louisiana coast during the next few hours, then move slowly toward the north-northwest and north through Louisiana for the next 36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north. This general motion should continue until the system dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west of the previous one based on the initial position and a slight westward shift in the track guidance.

Barry should quickly weaken below hurricane strength as it moves onshore, and subsequently it is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength between 24-36 h and degenerate into a trough by 96 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is ongoing along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.
  • 2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely later today and tonight as Barry moves inland, especially across portions of south-central and southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley.
  • 3. Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast. Tropical storm conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
  • FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  13/1500Z 29.6N  92.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Marsh Island, LA)
     12H  14/0000Z 30.4N  92.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Mowata, LA)
     24H  14/1200Z 31.6N  92.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Melrose, LA)
     36H  15/0000Z 33.0N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - (ENE Millerton, LA)
     48H  15/1200Z 34.3N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH - (ESE Lambert, AR)
     72H  16/1200Z 37.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - (ESE Evergreen, MO)
     96H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13, 2019

Tropical Storm Barry continues to inch its way toward the Louisiana coast with some of the northern bands now moving across southeastern Louisiana. Satellite and radar imagery still indicate that the storm has an asymmetric structure with most of its deep convection located to the south and east of the center due to ongoing north-northwesterly shear. The convection has been expanding though, and some bands are starting to wrap around the northeastern side, which could indicate some decrease in shear. The initial intensity for this advisory is held at 55 kt, which is in agreement with recent ASCAT passes and a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Doppler radar velocities between 10000 and 12000 feet show winds of 60-67 kt, but based on surface observations and the ASCAT data these might not be mixing down to the surface. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Barry in a few hours and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the storm’s intensity.

Barry continues its erratic motion toward the west-northwest. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 300/4 kt. A northwestward turn should occur soon, and the center is expected to cross the coast of south-central Louisiana within the next 6 to 12 hours. After that time, a turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast as the cyclone moves inland over the Mississippi Valley toward a weakness in the ridge. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west of the previous one, but it remains on the eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models.

Although not explicitly shown in the forecast below, Barry is still expected to be a hurricane before it makes landfall later today. After landfall, steady weakening is expected and Barry is forecast to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low in two to three days. The global models show the remnant low dissipating over the Ohio Valley in 3 or 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the guidance in the short term, but in line with the consensus models after that.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur later today. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.
  • 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.
  • 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
  • FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  13/0900Z 29.1N  91.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Marsh Island, LA)
     12H  13/1800Z 29.8N  92.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (Esther, LA)
     24H  14/0600Z 30.9N  92.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Blanche, LA)
     36H  14/1800Z 32.3N  92.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - (Bienville, LA)
     48H  15/0600Z 33.8N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - (ESE Whelen Springs, AR)
     72H  16/0600Z 36.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - (ESE Pontiac, MO)
     96H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm Barry NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12, 2019 

The overall satellite presentation of Barry has improved since this afternoon. The center is located closer to the main convective mass and there has been some expansion of the cirrus outflow. There has also been an increase in the convective banding over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft have been in the storm this evening. The NOAA aircraft found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 64 kt in the southeastern quadrant, which still supports an initial intensity of 55 kt.

Barry has been able to strengthen over the past day or so despite northerly shear and dry mid-level air. With the recent increase in convection near the center and the expansion of the upper-level outflow, it appears that the shear over the center has decreased. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for Barry to become a hurricane before it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Although this is slightly above the intensity guidance, most of the dynamical models show some modest deepening before landfall. After the center moves inland, steady weakening is expected and the system is predicted to become a remnant low in about 72 hours.

Barry has been meandering over the past several hours, but the longer term motion is 300/3 kt. The storm is expected to turn northwestward overnight as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge that extends over the southeastern United States. This should bring the center of the storm onshore along the south-central coast of Louisiana on Saturday. By Saturday night or early Sunday, Barry is forecast to turn northward around the western portion of the aforementioned ridge. Barry or its remnants should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies by late Monday. Although the guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward again this cycle, the NHC track is virtually unchanged and is closest to the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models which lie along the eastern side of the envelope.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur on Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.
  • 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.
  • 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 28.6N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cocodrie, IL)
 12H  13/1200Z 29.3N  91.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Marsh Island, LA) 
 24H  14/0000Z 30.4N  92.1W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Sunset, LA)
 36H  14/1200Z 31.5N  92.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - (WSW Pollock, LA)
 48H  15/0000Z 32.9N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - (ESE Mt Union, LA)
 72H  16/0000Z 35.8N  92.4W   20 KT  25 MPH - (SE Flag. AR)
 96H  17/0000Z 38.7N  90.2W   15 KT  15 MPH - (Gabaret Island, IL)
120H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12, 2019

Tropical Storm Barry  – Although the storm continues to look disorganized in satellite imagery, surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 993 mb with the maximum winds still near 55 kt. A prominent cloud swirl has rotated more than halfway around the eastern and northern side of the mean center since 17Z, and there were several reports of strong winds in association with this feature. Strong convection persists to the south of the center, but to this point northerly shear has prevented the convection from becoming better organized.

The initial motion is now an erratic 300/5. Barry should turn northwestward during the next several hours as it approaches a weakness in the mid-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley, and this motion should bring the center across the central coast of Louisiana between 12-24 h. After landfall, the system should move northward through a break in the ridge until the 72 h point, after which it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward since the last advisory, but the shift is not large enough to require significant changes to the forecast track. Thus, the new track forecast again has only minor tweaks from the previous one, and it lies just east of the the various consensus models.

Barry continues to strengthen despite the asymmetric convective structure, the shear, and the presence of mid- to upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity guidance forecasts continued intensification until landfall, and so will the NHC forecast. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, Barry is expected to become a hurricane near the time it makes landfall between the 12 and 24 h forecasts points. After landfall, the cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low expected to occur in about 72 h and dissipation after 96 h.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.
  • 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.
  • 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 28.7N  90.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cocodrie, LA)
 12H  13/0600Z 29.2N  91.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Bateman Island, LA)
 24H  13/1800Z 30.1N  91.9W   60 KT  70 MPH - (ENE Cade, LA)
 36H  14/0600Z 31.3N  92.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - (ENE Kolin, LA)
 48H  14/1800Z 32.5N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - (ENE Choudrant, LA)
 72H  15/1800Z 35.0N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - (ENE Lollie, AR)
 96H  16/1800Z 38.0N  91.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - (Butts, MO)
120H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 12, 2019

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…

…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…

INFORMATION 

  • LOCATION…28.4N 90.6W
  • ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
  • ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
  • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
  • PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
  • MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 90.6 West. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the north Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will approach the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana through tonight and then make landfall over the central Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The NOAA automated station at the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 55 mph and a wind gust of 66 mph at an elevation of 125 ft. An oil rig located southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 76 mph and a wind gust of 87 mph at an elevation of 295 ft. The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

Key Messages:

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft
  • Shell Beach to Biloxi MS…3 to 5 ft
  • Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River…3 to 5 ft
  • Lake Pontchartrain…3 to 5 ft
  • Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft
  • Lake Maurepas…1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

  • RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana along with southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
  • WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by tonight or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the Tropical Storm Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.
  • TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the Alabama coast.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 12, 2019

Tropical Storm Barry – Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Barry has strengthened during the past several hours. The Air Force plane reported maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 62 kt and reliable-looking SFMR winds of 50-55 kt in the strong convection that has developed in the southern quadrant. In addition, the data from both planes indicate the central pressure has fallen to near 998 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. Data from the NOAA plane, which is flying near 460 mb, shows that the center at that level is south of the low-level center, likely due to ongoing northerly shear.

The initial motion is an erratic 290/4. While there is still a larger than normal spread between the UKMET on the left side and the HWRF on the right side, the track guidance has come into better agreement that Barry will turn northwestward later today or tonight, with this motion continuing until the center makes landfall along the Louisiana coast in 24-30 h. After landfall, the system should move northward through a break in the ridge of high pressure over the United States until the 72 h point, after which it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The new track forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models.

Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low forecast to occur in about 72 h.

Tropical Storm Barry Tropical Force Winds Probability July 12 2019
Tropical Storm Barry Tropical Force Winds Probability July 12 2019

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.
  • 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.
  • 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast and inland across portions of south-central Louisiana where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
  • FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  12/1500Z 28.2N  90.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Grand Isle, LA)
     12H  13/0000Z 28.6N  90.9W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cocodrie, LA)
     24H  13/1200Z 29.4N  91.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Centerville, LA)
     36H  14/0000Z 30.5N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND (Leonville,LA)
     48H  14/1200Z 31.8N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND (WNW Georgetown, LA)
     72H  15/1200Z 34.4N  92.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW (WSW Cane Creek, AR )
     96H  16/1200Z 37.0N  90.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW (ESE Williamsville, MO)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12, 2019

Barry does not have the typical presentation of a tropical cyclone on satellite imagery at this time. The cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective band on the southern semicircle, and the system is devoid of an inner convective core near the center. Barry is an asymmetric storm with most of the tropical-storm-force winds occurring in the eastern semicircle. An Air Force plane sampled the area a few hours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 51 kt with SFMR winds of 43 kt. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane will be investigating Barry in a few hours.

Barry is moving over warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius, and still has the opportunity to strengthen. Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall in about 24 hours. Most of the models show modest strengthening despite the northerly shear and the effect of the dry air. After landfall, steady weakening is anticipated.

The broad center of circulation appears to be moving slowly toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 4 kt. This is taking the average motion of the several swirls rotating around a larger circulation. The cyclone should soon begin to turn toward the northwest and then northward around the periphery of a mid-level ridge. The overall guidance has changed very little and the NHC forecast is not different from the previous one. It is in the  middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.
  • 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system.
  • 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning.
  • FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  12/0900Z 28.1N  90.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW New Orleans, LA)
     12H  12/1800Z 28.4N  90.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (S Houma, LA)
     24H  13/0600Z 29.1N  91.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Marsh Island, LA)
     36H  13/1800Z 30.0N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND (NE Erath, LA)
     48H  14/0600Z 31.5N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND (ESE Bunn, AR)
     72H  15/0600Z 34.0N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND (ESE Bunn, AR)
     96H  16/0600Z 36.5N  91.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW (NE Warm Springs, AR)
    120H  17/0600Z 39.5N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW (Sandford, IN)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM CDT Thu Jul 11, 2019

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry (see Thursday 3:00pm video below) was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.3 West. Barry has moved little over the past few hours, but a motion toward the west near 3 mph (5 km/h) is expected to resume later tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday and then move inland into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft
  • Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft
  • Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River…2 to 4 ft
  • Lake Pontchartrain…2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected by Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting late tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday late morning through Friday night across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the Alabama coast.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11, 2019

Barry  has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with a convective band forming closer to the center in the southern semicircle and the central pressure falling to near 1003 mb. However, the strongest winds are still 70 nm or more from the center, and there are several cloud swirls rotating around the mean center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on earlier aircraft and scatterometer data, but it is possible this is a little conservative.

The initial motion is 275/4. Barry is being steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next 24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and eventually northward. However, there remains a large spread in the track guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move generally northward across southeastern Louisiana, while the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean take the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes. There was a slight westward shift in the guidance envelope since the last advisory, which resulted in the consensus models being close to the previous NHC forecast track. As a result, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track, and it calls for the center of Barry to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast between 36-48 h. After 72 h, the cyclone should recurve northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies.

Barry is still being affected by northerly shear, and GOES-16 airmass imagery indicates mid- to upper-level dry air coming from the northeast has spread over the low-level center. So far, this has not stopped the development, and the guidance is in good agreement that intensification will continue. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for intensification until landfall. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, there is a significant chance that Barry will be a hurricane when it makes landfall between 36-48 h in agreement with the HWRF and GFS models. After landfall, Barry should weaken as it moves through the  Mississippi Valley, and it is forecast to become a remnant low by 96 h.

Key Messages:

  • 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.
  • 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system.
  • 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 27.8N  89.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Port Eads, LA)
 12H  12/0600Z 27.9N  89.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Grand Isle, LA)
 24H  12/1800Z 28.3N  90.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cocodrie, LA)
 36H  13/0600Z 29.0N  91.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Caillou Bay. LA)
 48H  13/1800Z 30.0N  91.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND (Morbihan, LA)
 72H  14/1800Z 32.5N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  15/1800Z 35.0N  91.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/1800Z 37.5N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM CDT Thu Jul 11, 2019

BARRY   MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO… …DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC

INFORMATION:

LOCATION: 27.8N 89.0W

ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH…65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGSHurricane Barry Rainfall Forecast July 11 2019

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for… * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for… * Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

Hurricane Barry Earliest Possible Arrival Time July 11 2019
Hurricane Barry Earliest Possible Arrival Time July 11 2019

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.0 West. Barry is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday. On the forecast track the center of Barry will be near the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key Messages:

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft
  • Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft
  • Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River…2 to 4 ft
  • Lake Pontchartrain…1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches across portions of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11, 2019

Tropical Storm Barry – The low-pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large convective band in the southern semicircle. The circulation center has also become better defined, although it is still elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the mean center. In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for an initial intensity of 35 kt. Based on these developments, the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4. Barry is being steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next 24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and eventually northward. However, there is a large spread in the track guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi, while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes. Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to the east. It should be noted, though, that the new track is west of the consensus models.

Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from the northeast. Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until the cyclone makes landfall. Despite this less than ideal environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification, so the NHC forecast follows this trend. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

  • 1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.
  • 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.
  • 3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings could be required later today. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
  • 4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 27.8N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Port Eads, LA)
 12H  12/0000Z 27.8N  89.3W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Port Eads, LA)
 24H  12/1200Z 28.1N  90.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Port Fourcho, LA)
 36H  13/0000Z 28.6N  90.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Cocodrie, LA)
 48H  13/1200Z 29.4N  91.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Marsh Island, LA)
 72H  14/1200Z 32.0N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND (ESE Fort Necessity, LA)
 96H  15/1200Z 34.5N  91.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND (Daugherty Reservoir, AR)
120H  16/1200Z 37.0N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW (Blodgett, MO)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 11, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 11, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10, 2019

Data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, surface observations, and satellite imagery indicate that the broad low-pressure system located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico still lacks a well-defined circulation center. Multiple low-level swirls associated with individual convective cells were noted in the aircraft wind data. However, shower and thunderstorm activity has been increasing over the past couple of hours in the previously convective-free northern semicircle, an indication that low-level wind field is beginning to improve in that region of the cyclone. The upper-level outflow has become well established except to the north where modest northerly wind shear is inhibiting the outflow. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind data and recent recon winds of 25-30 kt to the south and west of the center.

The initial motion estimate remains 245/07 kt. The latest model guidance continues in good agreement on the cyclone moving generally toward the west-southwest or southwest for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a westward motion on Friday.  Afterwards, however, the model guidance diverges significantly. The 12Z ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and HMON models have shifted farther east and turn the cyclone northwestward to northward in 48-72 hours, moving it inland along the south-central and southeastern coasts of Louisiana. In contrast, the UKMET has shifted farther west and keeps the system on more of westward track, taking it inland along the central Texas coast. The main difference is how the models handle the ridge to the north, with the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and HMON rapidly eroding the ridge as a weak shortwave trough passes to the north of the cyclone, whereas the UKMET shows the ridge not weakening as much due to the shortwave trough weakening as it lifts out to the east, which allows the ridge to remain intact. Due to this significant bifurcation in NHC’s most reliable track model guidance, the best course of action is to slow down the forward speed and only make minor adjustments to the overall tack, which has been shifted slightly to the east, but not as far east as the simple consensus and HCCA models.

Only slow strengthening is forecast for the next 24-36 hours due to the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond, however, the combination of very low vertical wind shear, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures of 30-31C should allow for significant intensification to hurricane strength before landfall occurs after 72 hours. Given that the system is still in the formative stages, the official intensity forecast remains a little below IVCN consensus through 48 hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at 72 hours.

Key Messages:

  • 1. A tropical depression is expected to form by Thursday over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.
  • 2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Additional storm surge watches may be needed later tonight or tomorrow. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen to any advice given by local officials.
  • 3. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the Louisiana coast and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches could be needed later tonight or tomorrow. Residents in the watch area should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
  • 4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system.
  • FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  10/2100Z 28.1N  87.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE (ESE Gulf Shores, AL)
     12H  11/0600Z 27.7N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE(ESE Port Eads, LA)
     24H  11/1800Z 27.5N  89.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM (ESE Port Eads, LA)
     36H  12/0600Z 27.6N  90.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Port Fourchon, LA)
     48H  12/1800Z 28.2N  91.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Marsh Island, LA)
     72H  13/1800Z 29.3N  92.4W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Pecan Island, LA)
     96H  14/1800Z 31.9N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND (Black Lake, LA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 10, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico less than 200 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10, 2019

High-resolution satellite imagery along with surface and upper-air data indicate that the broad low-pressure system located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico  has become a little better defined. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on an average of 1-minute wind speeds of 20-33 kt reported by ships and buoys well south of the poorly defined center. Although the system is currently experiencing some northerly vertical wind shear, the shear is expected to gradually subside over the next day or so, and the low has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by Thursday. Since this system has the potential to bring tropical storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the coast of Louisiana by late Thursday or Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories are being initiated at this time.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 245/07 kt. Some erratic motion will be possible during the 24 hours or until a well-defined center develops. However, the general motion as indicated by the global and regional models is expected to be toward the west- southwest or southwest. By Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday into a developing break in a deep-layer ridge that currently extends from the southeastern U.S. westward across the southern Plains and into the Desert Southwest. The timing of the ridge breakdown owing to a shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the northern Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone would shift the track west/east of the current forecast. The model guidance is widely divergent after 48 hours with the UKMET model the farthest west showing landfall along the Upper Texas coast, and the GFS and HMON models farther east with landfall in south-central Louisiana. The ECMWF model is about midway between these two extremes, and the official track forecast leans toward that model since it has performed well during this system’s pre-development phase. Note that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

Only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours due to the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond, however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given that the system is still in the formative stages, the official intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48 hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at 72 hours.

Key Messages:

  • 1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or Thursday. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen to a hurricane at it approaches the central Gulf Coast by the weekend.
  • 2. Dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southeast Louisiana, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for this area. The risk for dangerous storm surge impacts also exists farther west along the Louisiana coast into the Upper Texas coast, and additional storm surge watches may be needed later today or tonight. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen to any advice given by local officials.
  • 3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the Louisiana coast and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be needed later today or tonight for the remainder of the Louisiana coast and the Upper Texas Coast.
  • 4. The system has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall along and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week. For more information, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
  • FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  10/1500Z 28.5N  86.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
     12H  11/0000Z 27.9N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE (ESE Gulf Shores, AL)
     24H  11/1200Z 27.5N  88.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - TROPICAL DEPRESSION (ESE Port Eads, LA)
     36H  12/0000Z 27.4N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropival Storm (SW Port Eads, LA)
     48H  12/1200Z 27.6N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropival Storm (SW Grand Isle, LA)
     72H  13/1200Z 28.7N  92.3W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (S of Pecan Island, LA )
     96H  14/1200Z 30.7N  93.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND (ENE Dry Creek, LA)
    120H  15/1200Z 32.6N  94.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND (ESE Leigh, TX)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 10, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low-pressure area located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida, is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. This system could produce storm surge and tropical- storm- or hurricane-force winds across portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Upper Texas coasts later this week, and interests there should closely monitor its progress. In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 10, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low-pressure area located over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. This system could produce storm surge and tropical
storm or hurricane force winds across portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Upper Texas coasts, and interests there should closely monitor its progress. In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle. For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 9, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low-pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm, Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon. In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to Florida Panhandle during the next several days and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 9, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low-pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 9, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low-pressure system located over the eastern Florida Panhandle is producing disorganized shower activity. The low is forecast to move southward to southwestward and emerge over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today. Once the system is over water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation, and a tropical depression is likely to develop by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 8, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over south-central Georgia is producing disorganized showers. This disturbance is expected to
move southward or southwestward during the next day or two, and a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone develops, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 8, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday. Environmental and ocean conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low moves slowly westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast.

Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jul 7, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a few days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast.

Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 7, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad low-pressure area will likely form in a few days. Thereafter, upper-level winds support gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late week while the low meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast through Friday. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 7, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad low-pressure area will likely form in a few days. Thereafter, upper-level winds support some development of this system while it meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast through Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6, 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee, and northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico where a low-pressure area could form early next week. Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

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