Tropical Storm Andrea Forming Off East Coast

SubTropical Storm Andrea 1633 Hours May 21 2019
SubTropical Storm Andrea 1633 Hours May 21 2019
SubTropical Storm Andrea Satellite 1100 Hours May 21 2019

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019

The cyclone (see new video below) has lacked deep convection since early this morning, and therefore it no longer qualifies as either a tropical or a subtropical cyclone. Dry mid-level air, the influence of an upper-level low, and marginal SSTs should preclude re-development.

The cyclone is likely to dissipate in a day or so as it becomes absorbed into a frontal zone. Post-tropical Andrea has turned to the east-northeast and the motion is about 070/7. The system should move mainly eastward within the mid-level westerlies until dissipation. This is the last advisory on Andrea.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 30.8N  68.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  22/0600Z 31.2N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1800Z 31.7N  62.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Tue May 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. …SPECIAL FEATURES.

Subtropical Depression Andrea … As of 1500 UTC, Subtropical Depression Andrea is centered near 30.8N69.2W, or about 243 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving N at 7 kt.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with higher gust. Scattered moderate convection extends outward to 350 nm in the SE quadrant. Satellite imagery indicates Andrea is very poorly organized and is interacting with an upper low that is very near the cyclone. Andrea is forecast to turn towards the northeast and east tonight, then continued to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low by this evening.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea , located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

As of 1500 UTC, Subtropical Depression Andrea is centered near  30.8N69.2W, or about 243 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving N at 7 kt.  Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained  winds are 30 kt with higher gust. Scattered moderate convection  extends outward to 350 nm in the SE quadrant. Satellite imagery
indicates Andrea is very poorly organized and is interacting with  an upper low that is very near the cyclone. Andrea is forecast to  turn towards the northeast and east tonight, then continued to  weaken and degenerate into a remnant low by this evening.

Sub-tropical Storm Andrea is centered near 30.0N 69.0W, or about  255 nm WSW of Bermuda at 21/0900 UTC, moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are  35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate  convection extends outward to 300 nm in the SE quadrant. Satellite imagery indicates Andrea is very poorly organized and is interacting with an upper low that is very near the cyclone.
Andrea is forecast to turn to the northeast this afternoon and  east late tonight. Little change in strength is expected today,  with dissipation on Wednesday.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

There is a high chance of a tropical or subtropical depression or storm developing south of Bermuda early this week. If this system forms, it would be no threat to the U.S. but could produce some rain in Bermuda.

The National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda for a high chance of development through Tuesday. If a tropical or subtropical depression or storm does develop, it would be short-lived since a cold front is likely to absorb the system rather quickly.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda are showing signs of organization. Although recent satellite wind data suggest that the system currently lacks a well-defined center of circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone later today or tonight. Conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by late Tuesday, and the disturbance is expected to merge with a cold front on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate the disturbance. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

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Video: What you need to know about Subtropical Storm Andrea

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