Cruise Ship Weather 2019 Tropics Hurricane Season Prediction – An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Names to be used for 2019 Atlantic Basin storms are Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy.
The Eastern North Pacific storm names are Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena, Mario, Narda, Octave, Priscilla, Raymond, Sonia, Tico, Velma, Wallis, Xina, York, Zelda.
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration says they won’t issue their official pre-season forecast for the upcoming hurricane season until May. According to NOAA, there is an 80 percent chance of El Nino conditions continuing through the spring and a 60 percent likelihood of the condition lasting well into the summer. El Nino is part of a recurring climate pattern that occurs across a section of the Pacific off the South American Coast, according to NOAA.
The Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Weather Project is scheduled to release its annual prediction on the hurricane season next month. In a “very early” report issued December 1, the day after the 2018 season ended, the Colorado team suggested the likelihood of an El Nino this year, which is typically associated with fewer Atlantic hurricanes.
“Most models predict that a weak to moderate El Niño will develop over the next few months,” CSU’s Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell said in that long-range forecast.
In a press conference at the National Press Club, Gerry Bell, a climate change specialist and lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, and Jeremy Gregory, a research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a disaster relief expert, discussed the procedures for predicting a hurricane season and what can be done to reduce the physical and financial losses caused by hurricanes.
Bell said the NOAA uses analysis of climate patterns and historical trends to create a seasonal hurricane outlook. Hurricane activity usually alternates between high-activity and low-activity eras that last about 20 years, controlled by predictable climate patterns, Bell said.
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Video: Preliminary Summer Forecast