Tropical Storm Patty

Tropical Storm Patty Forming 1900 Hours November 14 2018
Tropical Storm Patty Forming 1900 Hours November 14 2018

Tropical Storm Patty Forming (see 6 videos below) 

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Disorganized shower activity over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the adjacent waters is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low.

Development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with islands of the Greater Antilles. However, locally heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola for another day or so. This rainfall will also spread across portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Thursday as the system turns northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the adjacent waters. Development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with islands of the Greater Antilles.

However, locally heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next day or so as it moves generally west-northwestward. This rainfall will spread across portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas by Thursday as the system turns northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the adjacent waters. Significant development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with islands of the Greater Antilles.

However, this system could produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next day or so as it moves generally west-northwestward. This rainfall will then spread across portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas by Thursday as the system turns northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave and an upper-level low are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the adjacent waters. Significant development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and the interaction with islands of the Greater Antilles.

Even though development is not anticipated, locally heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next day or so as the system moves generally west-northwestward. This activity will then spread over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas by Thursday as the system turns northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the adjacent waters are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low. Significant development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with the islands of the Greater Antilles.

Even though development is unlikely, locally heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next day or so as the system moves generally west-northwestward. This activity will then spread over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Wednesday night and Thursday as the system turns northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms extending from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low. Significant development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with the islands of the Greater Antilles.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms moving through the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low.

Strong upper-level winds and interaction with the islands of the Greater Antilles, while the system moves generally westward, should inhibit tropical cyclone formation.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave that is moving through the Leeward Islands has continued to become less organized tonight.

Environmental conditions are not expected to become significantly better for development, and the system is also expected to interact with the islands of the Greater Antilles during the next few days. Therefore, the potential for this system to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone continues to decrease. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave that is interacting with an upper-level trough continues to produce a large area of disturbed weather that extends from near the Leeward Islands northeastward over the tropical Atlantic for several hundred miles. This system has not become any better organized over the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions may not become as conducive as previously anticipated.

Therefore, the potential for this system to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone has decreased. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of disturbed weather over much of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Although environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next few days, interaction with land could inhibit tropical cyclone formation. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A vigorous tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing a large area of disturbed weather over much of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little more concentrated this morning, and environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers activity has increased and become a little better organized today in association with a tropical wave located about 350 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.

Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is expected to form by the middle of the week. The system will move westward to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser is gradually becoming better defined and continues to produce strong gusty winds mainly to the east of the disturbance.

Although no significant development of this system is expected during the next day or two, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of the week while the system moves near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser has increased in organization during the past several hours and satellite data indicate that the wave is producing strong gusty winds.

No significant development of this system is anticipated during the next couple of days, but conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of next week while the system moves near or north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds. However, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of next week while the system moves near or north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds.

However, these winds are forecast to lessen by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of next week while the system moves near or north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

However, some subtropical or tropical development is possible around the middle of next week when the system moves near or to the north of the Greater Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

If this system is named, it will be Tropical Storm Patty

Video: Caribbean Travel Weather – Saturday November 10th To Sunday November 11th 2018

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