Tropical Storm Michael

Sub-Tropical Storm Michael Track 0500 Hours October 12 2018
Sub-Tropical Storm Michael Track 0500 Hours October 12 2018

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Tropical Storm Michael – (see 34 videos below)Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast of the United States. The initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h. After that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. The revised intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is 065/25. The cyclone should move very rapidly toward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near the end of the cyclone’s life.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from eastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water, flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours over portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva Peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 38.0N  73.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 12H  12/1800Z 40.4N  66.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE New York City, NY)
 24H  13/0600Z 43.8N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Lunenburg. NS, Canada)
 36H  13/1800Z 46.2N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's, NF, Canada)
 48H  14/0600Z 47.0N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's, NF, Canada)
 72H  15/0600Z 46.0N  11.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW La Rochelle, France)
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Tropical Storm Michael has just about lost its tropical characteristics. The low-level circulation is becoming increasingly elongated as it becomes embedded within a frontal zone, and the center is becoming ill defined. The center we have been tracking across North Carolina appears to have moved into extreme southeastern Virginia, although it should be noted that a second low center, one with even lower pressure, has formed farther north along the western shore of Chesapeake Bay, closer to the deepest convection.

Needless to say, Michael has just about become post-tropical, and that transformation should be complete overnight. The estimated maximum winds remain 45 kt based on recent observations from coastal North Carolina. Due to baroclinic forcing, some re-intensification of the post-tropical low is expected during the next 24-36 hours, following guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. The post-tropical low should then begin to weaken again in 2-3 days and will likely be absorbed by another weather system to the west of Europe by day 4.

The initial motion based on the continuity-following low center is northeastward, or 055/22 kt. Michael is embedded within the mid-latitude flow and is therefore expected to accelerate toward the east-northeast over the western and northern Atlantic during the next couple of days, even approaching speeds of about 50 kt in 48 hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and no significant changes to the official track forecast were required. Michael’s center is expected to move off the coast of Virginia within the next couple of hours, with tropical-storm- and gale-force winds moving away from the coast during the day on Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic states and will continue overnight.

2. Strong, possibly damaging winds are expected over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the southern Delmarva peninsula overnight. These winds have the potential to cause tree and structural damage, plus power outages.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible overnight along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 37.1N  76.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Hampton, VA)
 12H  12/1200Z 39.2N  71.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 24H  13/0000Z 42.5N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Shelburne, NS, Canada)
 36H  13/1200Z 45.4N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's, NF, Canada)
 48H  14/0000Z 47.1N  34.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's, NF, Canada)
 72H  15/0000Z 47.6N  14.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Brest, France)
 96H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Tropical Storm Michael – Satellite and radar data show that Michael’s rain shield is beginning to expand northward and northwestward, and that cooler and drier air is starting to wrap around the western portion of the circulation. These trends indicate that Michael’s transition to an extratropical low has started.

There have been recent observations of 40 to nearly 45 kt sustained winds along the southeastern coast of North Carolina, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Little change in strength is expected through this evening, but Michael is forecast to quickly intensify after it completes extratropical transition and exits the east coast of the United States tonight. The official intensity forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

It should also be noted that an area of damaging wind gusts of up to 50 kt has developed around the northwest side of the circulation over central North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon. As a result, the gust factor has been increased in this advisory, as this area of strong winds will spread northward and eastward across portions of eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina this evening and tonight.

Michael is moving northeastward or 050/21 kt. The storm will continue to accelerate as it become further embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The post-tropical cyclone will race across the north Atlantic during the next few days, before slowing down late in the period before it weakens and dissipates. The track guidance continues to be in good agreement and little change was required from the previous NHC track forecast. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia and will continue through the evening.

2. Damaging winds are spreading eastward across portions of central and eastern North Carolina, and will continue through this evening. These winds have the potential to cause tree and structural damage. Strong winds are also expected over portions of southeastern Virginia and the Virginia Eastern Shore tonight as Michael becomes post-tropical.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible tonight along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 36.1N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Durham, NC)
 12H  12/0600Z 38.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 24H  12/1800Z 41.2N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Chatham. MA)
 36H  13/0600Z 44.5N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Glace Bay, NS, Canada)
 48H  13/1800Z 47.0N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's, NF, Canada)
 72H  14/1800Z 48.5N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Baltimore, Ireland)
 96H  15/1800Z 46.5N   7.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW La Rochelle, France)
120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Tropical Storm Michael

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 80.0 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move across central and eastern North Carolina today, move across southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts, primarily over water south and east of the center. Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly to the south and east of the center. A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) has been reported at Wilmington, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).Tropical Storm Michael Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time 1100 Hours October 11 2018

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck…2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of northeastern South Carolina and will spread northward over central and eastern North Carolina through this evening. Tropical storm force wind gusts are expected across portions of North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon and tonight.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from northern South Carolina, west-central to northwestern North Carolina, and into south-central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through this evening across central and eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Tropical Storm Michael – Surface, radar, and satellite data indicate that the center of Michael has moved over central South Carolina this morning, and will be moving into central North Carolina shortly. Sustained winds near the center have decreased, but there have been a couple of reports of sustained 37 to 40 kt winds along and just off the coast of South Carolina within the outer circulation of the storm. It is assumed that these coastal observing sites have not sampled the strongest winds, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kt have been common over central and eastern portions of South Carolina this morning.

As Michael’s circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, little change in strength is expected today, with the highest sustained winds spreading northward along the coasts of South and North Carolina. Late tonight, Michael will quickly transform into an extratropical cyclone, and the global models indicate that the post-tropical low will quickly strengthen after moving offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The post-tropical portion of Michael’s intensity forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

The storm is moving quickly northeastward or 050 degrees at 20 kt. Michael will continue to accelerate northeastward to east- northeastward as it moves over the western and north Atlantic during the next couple of days. There has been little change to the guidance envelope, and the new NHC track is an update of the previous advisory.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding today over portions of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia.

2. Tropical storm force wind gusts will continue across much of South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina, with sustained tropical storm force winds expected along the coast of the Carolinas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 34.7N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Springdale, SC)
 12H  12/0000Z 36.6N  77.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Little Texas, VA)
 24H  12/1200Z 39.3N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Atlantic City, NJ)
 36H  13/0000Z 42.8N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Shelburne, NS, Canada)
 48H  13/1200Z 45.5N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's, NF, Canada)
 72H  14/1200Z 48.2N  23.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Brest, France)
 96H  15/1200Z 49.0N   9.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Hugh Town, Isles of Scilly)
120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Tropical Storm Michael – Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Michael continues to weaken as the center moves through eastern Georgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased to 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-force winds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well to the southeast of the center. Michael should continue to weaken for the next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolina and into North Carolina. After that time, the cyclone should start to intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to become a gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and it leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropical phase.

The initial motion is now 045/18. Michael will accelerate toward the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast track is near the various consensus models and has no significant changes from the previous forecast.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, and tropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 33.5N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Thomson, GA)
 12H  11/1800Z 35.4N  79.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (Carthage, NC)
 24H  12/0600Z 37.9N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 36H  12/1800Z 40.9N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nantucket, MA)
 48H  13/0600Z 44.1N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Sydney,NS,Canada)
 72H  14/0600Z 48.0N  29.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Brest, France)
 96H  15/0600Z 49.0N   9.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Falmouth, England)
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael  – Data from NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radars indicate that Michael has been steadily weakening a a typical rate of decay since it moved inland. However, peak Doppler velocity values are still 80-85 kt between 5000-7000 ft above ground level in large areas in the eastern semicircle. With a recent burst of convection near the low-level center, some of those hurricane-force winds are likely making it down to the surface.

Additional weakening is expected due to frictional effects, and the official intensity follows the trend of the Decay-SHIPS model for the next 24 hours while the cyclone remains over land. Sustained winds have dropped below tropical-storm-force across the northern Gulf coast, so the Hurricane Warning has been discontinued for that area. Michael is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic Thursday night and Friday, where intensification as a robust extratropical cyclone is expected. The low is forecast to be absorbed by another low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.

The initial motion is now 045/17 kt. Michael will continue to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded within deeper mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving frontal system. By 36 hours, the expected post-tropical cyclone should turn east-northeastward and accelerate further while it moves over the north Atlantic. The latest track guidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were made.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend. The worst storm surge is expected to continue between Panama City and Keaton Beach, where 3 to 5 feet of inundation is still ongoing.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 32.1N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (Vienna, GA)
 12H  11/1200Z 34.0N  81.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (Delmar, SC)
 24H  12/0000Z 36.4N  77.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (Murfreesboro, NC)
 36H  12/1200Z 39.3N  70.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Atlantic City, NJ)
 48H  13/0000Z 42.4N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Boston, MA)
 72H  14/0000Z 47.9N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.John's, NL, Canada)
 96H  15/0000Z 49.7N  13.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Penzance, England)
120H  16/0000Z...ABSORBED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael – NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that the center of Michael is now moving into south-central Georgia. Winds are continuing to decease across the Florida panhandle.

Storm surge levels will continue to decrease along the coast of the Florida Panhandle tonight. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola is now indicating about 2 feet of inundation above ground level.

INFORMATION

LOCATION…31.9N 84.1W ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB…28.50 INCHES

Location: 31.9°N 84.1°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph


NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael

9:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 31.7°N 84.4°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Michael is continuing to move over southwestern Georgia. Winds are gradually deceasing over the Florida panhandle, but they are beginning to increase along the Georgia coast.

Recent wind reports include: Weatherflow site Jekyll Island Georgia: 61 mph (98 km/h) Macon Georgia airport: wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) Storm surge levels will continue to decrease along the coast of the Florida Panhandle tonight. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola is now reporting less than 3 feet of inundation above ground level.

INFORMATION

LOCATION…31.7N 84.4W

ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael

8:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 31.5°N 84.5°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across southwestern and central Georgia tonight, and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday night, becoming a tropical storm by Thursday morning. Michael is forecast to re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (119 km/h) were recently measured at the Albany Georgia airport. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL…4-8 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base…3-5 ft

Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL…3-5 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL…2-4 ft

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck…2-4 ft

Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 3 feet of inundation above ground level.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over south-central Georgia tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday… Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia…3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast…1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael

7:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 31.1°N 84.9°W
Moving: NNE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is now moving over southwestern Georgia. Recently reported wind gusts include:

Albany Georgia airport: 67 mph (107 km/h)

Tallahassee International Airport: 61 mph (98 km/h)

Dothan Alabama airport: 60 mph (96 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola is still reporting nearly 5 feet of inundation above ground level.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT…2300 UTC…

INFORMATION

LOCATION…31.1N 84.9W

ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM NNW OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA

ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM WSW OF ALBANY GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.05 INCHES

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

 Data from an Air Force Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS WSR-88D radar data showed that Michael continued to strengthen until it made landfall around 1730 UTC (12:30 PM CDT) along the coast of the Florida Panhandle between Mexico Beach and Tyndall Air Force Base. The aircraft found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 152 kt during its final pass through southeast eyewall just before Michael made landfall. There were SFMR measurements of 132-138 kt, but the validity of those observations are questionable since they occurred in shallow water and were flagged. The landfall intensity was estimated at 135 kt (155 mph), which makes Michael the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. since Andrew (1992). The minimum pressure at landfall was estimated at 919 mb, which is the third lowest landfall pressure in the United States. A University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site measured a minimum pressure of 920.2 mb.

Now that the entire eyewall has moved over land, the Doppler radar velocities have decreased and the initial intensity has been lowered to 110 kt. Although steady weakening is expected as Michael moves over the southeast U.S. through Thursday morning, hurricane-force winds will continue to penetrate inland over the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia through this evening. The circulation is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic Thursday night and Friday, where intensification as an extratropical cyclone is expected. The extratropical low is expected to remain quite strong while to moves over the north Atlantic through the weekend. The low is expected to be absorbed by another low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.

Michael is moving northeastward of 030/14 kt, and the hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The post-tropical cyclone should turn east-northeastward and further accelerate as it moves over the north Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, but has trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge is expected to continue between Tyndall Air Force Base and Aucilla River, where 5 to 10 feet of inundation is still ongoing.

2. Michael will continue to produce life-threatening hurricane-force winds well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwestern Georgia this evening as the core of the hurricane continues to move inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions southeast Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 30.9N  85.1W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (Bascom, FL)
 12H  11/0600Z 32.6N  83.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (Allentown, GA)
 24H  11/1800Z 35.1N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (Foxfire, NC)
 36H  12/0600Z 37.6N  74.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Ocean City, MD)
 48H  12/1800Z 40.7N  66.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Long Island, NY)
 72H  13/1800Z 46.7N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's, NL, Canada)
120H  15/1800Z...ABSORBED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael

Location: 30.6°N 85.2°W
Moving: NNE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 927 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM S OF MARIANNA FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is moving inland over portions of Bay and Calhoun counties in the Florida Panhandle. Everyone in these areas is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye passes!

Recently reported wind gusts include:

Tyndall Air Force Base: 119 mph (191 km/h)

Florida State University Panama City Campus: 116 mph (187 km/h)

University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 104 mph (167 km/h)

Panama City Treatment Plant: 94 mph (151 km/h) Panama City Beach National Ocean Service: 78 mph (126 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 7.7 feet of inundation above ground level.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT…1900 UTC…

INFORMATION

LOCATION…30.4N 85.3W

ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM ENE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…922 MB…27.22 INCHES

2:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 30.4°N 85.3°W
Moving: NNE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 922 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

1:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 30.0°N 85.5°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 919 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida. At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West.

Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight.

Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.

Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to 129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.41 inches). A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

12:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 29.9°N 85.7°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 919 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...11 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CORE OF MICHAEL NEARING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN ST. VINCENT ISLAND AND PANAMA CITY...

A private weather station on St. George Island, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and wind gust of 66
mph (106 km/h).  

The Apalachicola airport recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust of 76 mph (122
km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. 
A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported nearly 5.5 feet of inundation above ground level.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...
INFORMATION
LOCATION...29.6N 85.8W 
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA 
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H 
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael

11:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 29.6°N 85.8°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 923 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael

10:30 AM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 29.5°N 85.9°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 923 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area of very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt.

The hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which additional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could slow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening is predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael will bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due to baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its transition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at least day 4.

Aircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much anticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected to make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving across the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move rapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this weekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory.

Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S. East Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects those areas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge is expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the Florida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and Panama City.

3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland later today and this evening.

4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia. 5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 29.4N  86.0W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW Panama City, FL)
 12H  11/0000Z 31.3N  84.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 1 (Damascus, GA)
 24H  11/1200Z 33.6N  82.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (Clarks Hill, SC)
 36H  12/0000Z 35.8N  78.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Wilson, NC)
 48H  12/1200Z 38.7N  71.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cape May, NJ)
 72H  13/1200Z 45.5N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW St. John's, NL, Canada)
 96H  14/1200Z 49.0N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW St. John's, NL, Canada)
120H  15/1200Z 50.0N  13.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Baltimore, Ireland)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael –  9 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE… …TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES…

A private weather station in Bald Point, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and wind gust of 59 mph (95 km/h).

The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). A Weatherflow station in St. Andrew Bay recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph (77 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 4 feet of inundation above ground level.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 

Hurricane Michael 8 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE… …WATER LEVELS QUICKLY RISING AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES…

A National Ocean Service station at Apalachicola recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT…1300 UTC…

INFORMATION

LOCATION: 29.1N 86.2W

ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 145 MPH…230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT: N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 933 MB…27.55 INCHES

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen during the past several hours. The maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb have been 136 kt, and the maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer are in the 120-125 kt range. In addition, the central pressure has fallen to near 943 mb. Based on on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt. This is a little below the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The cirrus outflow associated with Michael has improved over the past several hours, with the outflow flowing into an upper-level low to the southeast and along the east side of a large mid-latitude trough to the west.

The initial motion is 360/11. Michael is embedded in the flow between a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the northeastern United States and the aforementioned trough across the central United States. These features should cause the hurricane to turn north-northeastward during the next 12 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a significant increase in forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, Michael or its remnants should turn more eastward. The forecast track calls for the eye to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about the 12 h point, followed by a northeastward motion across the southeastern United States between 12-48 h. The forecast guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is very close to the previous track and the various consensus models through 72 h.

Additional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate vertical shear. After landfall, Michael is expected to steadily weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Extratropical transition is expected to begin while Michael is over land, and this should be complete just after the 48 h point. The cyclone should re-intensify due to baroclinic forcing as it moves rapidly northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast has been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current trends. Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane warning area during the next few hours, so all preparations should be rushed to completion.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida Panhandle, and everyone in the hurricane warning area should prepare for life-threatening hurricane winds. Dangerous hurricane- force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 28.3N  86.5W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Destin, FL)
 12H  10/1800Z 29.9N  85.7W  125 KT 145 MPH - Category 4 (WSW Panama City, FL)
 24H  11/0600Z 32.1N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (Vienna, GA)
 36H  11/1800Z 34.4N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (Cassatt, SC)
 48H  12/0600Z 36.8N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 72H  13/0600Z 43.5N  59.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Shelburne, NS, Canada)
 96H  14/0600Z 49.5N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St. John's NL, Canada)
120H  15/0600Z 52.0N  17.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Dingle, Ireland)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

The eye of Hurricane Michael became very distinct in both visible and infrared satellite pictures early this afternoon, but has been a little more cloud filled since that time. Very deep convection has continue to develop over the southeastern and eastern portion of the eyewall and rotate around the north and west sides. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 109 kt in the northeast eyewall as it exited the storm just prior to 1800 UTC, and another Air Force Hurricane Hunter very recently made its first pass through the eye and reported similar flight-level winds in the southeast quadrant, and a minimum pressure of 957 mb, down about 8 mb over the past few hours. Based on these observations and Dvorak satellite classifications of 115 kt and 102 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the initial intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory.

The environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening during the next 12 to 18 hours. There may be some increase in southwesterly shear as the hurricane nears the Gulf Coast, but it is not likely to result in a significant decrease in intensity before landfall. The global models continue to deepen the cyclone over the Gulf, increasing the confidence that some additional intensification will occur. The new NHC intensity forecast brings Michael up to 110 kt, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and HCCA models. After landfall, significant weakening should occur while Michael moves over the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is predicted to re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic processes after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday.

Michael is still moving north-northwestward to northward at about 10 kt. The hurricane should turn due northward this evening, then northeastward on Wednesday as a trough moves into the central United States. Michael should become embedded within the westerlies in 48 to 72 hours, and then accelerate northeastward to east- northeastward over the western and central-north Atlantic over the weekend. There is not much spread in the dynamical model guidance, and little change was required to the official forecast. Although the NHC forecast brings the center onshore Wednesday afternoon, conditions will deteriorate along the northeastern Gulf Coast tonight.

Tropical storm watches and warnings have been expanded northward along the U.S. East Coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects those areas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 26.0N  86.4W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (E Naples, FL)
 12H  10/0600Z 27.6N  86.6W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Clearwater, FL)
 24H  10/1800Z 29.7N  85.9W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Port St. Joe, FL)
 36H  11/0600Z 31.8N  84.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (Leesburg, GA)
 48H  11/1800Z 33.9N  81.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Cayce, SC)
 72H  12/1800Z 39.0N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 96H  13/1800Z 45.5N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St.John's, NL, Canada)
120H  14/1800Z 50.0N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Baltimore, Ireland)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Hurricane Michael  – The eye of Michael became very distinct in both visible and infrared satellite pictures early this afternoon, but has been a little more cloud filled since that time. Very deep convection has continue to develop over the southeastern and eastern portion of the eyewall and rotate around the north and west sides. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 109 kt in the northeast eyewall as it exited the storm just prior to 1800 UTC, and another Air Force Hurricane Hunter very recently made its first pass through the eye and reported similar flight-level winds in the southeast quadrant, and a minimum pressure of 957 mb, down about 8 mb over the past few hours. Based on these observations and Dvorak satellite classifications of 115 kt and 102 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the initial intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory.

The environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening during the next 12 to 18 hours. There may be some increase in southwesterly shear as the hurricane nears the Gulf Coast, but it is not likely to result in a significant decrease in intensity before landfall. The global models continue to deepen the cyclone over the Gulf, increasing the confidence that some additional intensification will occur. The new NHC intensity forecast brings Michael up to 110 kt, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and HCCA models. After landfall, significant weakening should occur while Michael moves over the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is predicted to re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic processes after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday.

Michael is still moving north-northwestward to northward at about 10 kt. The hurricane should turn due northward this evening, then northeastward on Wednesday as a trough moves into the central United States. Michael should become embedded within the westerlies in 48 to 72 hours, and then accelerate northeastward to east- northeastward over the western and central-north Atlantic over the weekend. There is not much spread in the dynamical model guidance, and little change was required to the official forecast. Although the NHC forecast brings the center onshore Wednesday afternoon, conditions will deteriorate along the northeastern Gulf Coast tonight.

Tropical storm watches and warnings have been expanded northward along the U.S. East Coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects those areas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 26.0N  86.4W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (E Naples, FL)
 12H  10/0600Z 27.6N  86.6W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Clearwater, FL )
 24H  10/1800Z 29.7N  85.9W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Panama City, FL )
 36H  11/0600Z 31.8N  84.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (Leesburg, GA)
 48H  11/1800Z 33.9N  81.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Cayce, SC)
 72H  12/1800Z 39.0N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)
 96H  13/1800Z 45.5N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.John's, NL, Canada)
120H  14/1800Z 50.0N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Baltimore, Ireland)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Hurricane Michael

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for… * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for… * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South CarolinaHurricane Michael Tropical Force Wind Probability 0700 Hours October 9 2018

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States by Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Hurricane Michael has continued to become better organized this morning. The hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery. Data from both NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. With two aircraft in the storm, they have been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind field. The planes actually passed through the eye around the same time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one another.

The outflow pattern has become better established over the hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly shear. The shear should continue to decrease, and further strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday. Michael is expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Significant weakening should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected when the system moves over the western Atlantic.

Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the central United States. As the trough moves eastward it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday. The hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some differences in forward speed thereafter. The GFS and ECMWF have trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 25.0N  86.2W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WNW Key West, FL)
 12H  10/0000Z 26.7N  86.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Sarasota, FL)
 24H  10/1200Z 28.8N  86.3W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (S Miramar Beach, FL)
 36H  11/0000Z 30.8N  85.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (Greenwood, FL)
 48H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Louisville, GA)
 72H  12/1200Z 37.5N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)
 96H  13/1200Z 44.0N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Sydney, NS, Canada)
120H  14/1200Z 50.0N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE St.John's, NL, Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Hurricane Michael  – Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft a few hours ago indicate that Michael’s strengthening has paused, with the maximum winds near 80 kt and a central pressure near 973 mb. The aircraft also reported that the eyewall had become less organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment and shear. The latest satellite imagery shows the convective banding becoming better defined, and the next aircraft will shortly arrive in the hurricane to provide better information on whether intensification has resumed.

The initial motion is now 345/10. There is little change in either the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Michael expected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge centered off of the U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude mid-latitude trough over the U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico. This pattern should steer the hurricane north-northwestward to northward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn to the northeast as Michael recurves into the westerlies. Only minor tweaks have been made to the previous forecast track, with Michael expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday and cross the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

The large-scale models continue to forecast a decrease in the shear later today, and thus Michael is forecast to intensify further before landfall. The new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in showing Michael as a category 3 hurricane at landfall. The cyclone should weaken significantly as it crosses the southeastern United States, then it should re-intensify over the western Atlantic as it undergoes extratropical transition between 72-96 h.

It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track, intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for parts of this area.

The NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be assimilated into the 1200 UTC numerical models runs. \

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael. Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba for a few more hours. 5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 24.1N  85.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Havana, Cuba)
 12H  09/1800Z 25.7N  86.3W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Naples, FL)
 24H  10/0600Z 27.9N  86.4W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Panama City, FL)
 36H  10/1800Z 29.9N  85.6W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Mexico Beach, Fl)
 48H  11/0600Z 32.3N  83.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (Hawkinsville, GA)
 72H  12/0600Z 36.5N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Virginia Beach, VA)
 96H  13/0600Z 42.5N  60.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Lockeport, NS, Canada)
120H  14/0600Z 49.0N  40.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St. John's,NL, Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

Hurricane Michael – At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 970 mb (28.64 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL…8-12 ft
  • Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL…6-8 ft
  • Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL…6-9 ft
  • Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL…4-6 ft
  • Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay…2-4 ft
  • Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL…2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday… Western Cuba…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend across Georgia into South Carolina… 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast…2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Yucatan Peninsula…1 to 2 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Hurricane Michael   – Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that was in the storm until about 1700 UTC continued to indicate that the hurricane was deepening. The pressure had fallen to 978 mb on the final fix, but the aircraft was still not able to sample the northeastern portion of the storm due to the close proximity of land. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite classifications and the continued deepening that was observed.

The upper-level outflow has gradually improved over Michael but it is still somewhat restricted over the western portion of the storm. There has been no significant change to the intensity forecast thinking. The moderate shear that has been affecting the cyclone is not expected to prevent strengthening while Michael moves over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although the statistical guidance is somewhat lower this cycle, the regional hurricane and global models still favor steady to rapid strengthening, and the NHC forecast is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Michael has been wobbling as it moves generally northward. Smoothing through the wobbles gives a long-term initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. Michael is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward between a deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United States. The trough is forecast move eastward, causing Michael to turn northeastward in 36 to 48 hours, and the cyclone should then accelerate northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerly flow. The 1200 UTC dynamical models have converged on both the track and forward speed through the first 48 to 72 hours. The updated NHC track has been nudged slightly westward through 48 hours to be closer to the latest consensus aids.

It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track, intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for parts of this area.

The NOAA G-IV aircraft is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models runs.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael. Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.

5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 22.2N  85.2W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WNW Las Tumbas, Cuba)
 12H  09/0600Z 23.7N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Las Tumbas, Cuba)
 24H  09/1800Z 25.7N  86.4W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Naples, FL)
 36H  10/0600Z 27.9N  86.6W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (S Destin, FL)
 48H  10/1800Z 30.2N  85.8W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (Panama City Beach, FL)
 72H  11/1800Z 34.5N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Abney Crossroads, SC)
 96H  12/1800Z 39.8N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE NYC, NY)
120H  13/1800Z 46.2N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE St, John's, NL, Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

OUTLOOK

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will pass near the western tip of Cuba within the next couple of hours and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

Hurricane Michael Arrival Times Forecast 1100 Hours October 8 2018
Hurricane Michael Arrival Times Forecast 1100 Hours October 8 2018

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Indian Pass FL to Crystal River FL…8-12 ft
  • Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL…5-8 ft
  • Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL…4-6 ft
  • Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay…2-4 ft
  • Navarre FL to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL…2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend… Western Cuba…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast…2 to 4 inches with local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life- threatening flash floods. Yucatan Peninsula…1 to 2 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Hurricane Michael – The satellite presentation of Michael has continued to improve overnight and this morning, with the center well embedded within an area of cold cloud tops. An eye is becoming apparent in visible imagery, and this was also confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave overpass and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure around 982 mb during the most recent pass through the center, and also found flight-level winds that support upgrading Michael to a a 65-kt hurricane for this advisory.

Although the outflow is still somewhat restricted over the western portion of the circulation, it has been expanding in that direction. The global models suggest that the shear will relax a little more while the hurricane moves over the very warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Now that Michael has developed an inner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and DTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during the next 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24 hours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status. After that time, most of the intensity guidance slows down the rate of intensification, perhaps due to a slight increase in southwesterly shear. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the forecast track keeps a portion of the circulation over water along the southeast U.S. coast, so Michael is predicted to remain a tropical storm through 72 hours. The system should become a powerful extratropical low off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in about 4 days.Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Force Winds 0800 Hours October 8 2018

Reconnaissance aircraft fixes indicate that Michael is still moving a little east of due north. The hurricane should move northward or north-northwestward over the next couple of days while the storm crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico. By 48 hours, Michael should turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving into the central United States. The cross-track spread in the guidance has decreased since yesterday, but there continue to be differences in how fast Michael moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. The HWRF and GFS remain among the faster models, while the ECMWF is still much slower. The NHC track is along the eastern side of the guidance through 24 hours due to the recent motion of the storm, and is remains near the various consensus aids after that time. The post-tropical portion of the track and intensity forecast is based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life- threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast regardless of the storm’s exact track or intensity. Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane warnings will likely be issued later today.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of the Carolinas through Thursday.

3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 21.2N  84.9W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Maria la Gorda, Cuba)
 12H  09/0000Z 22.6N  85.3W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WNW Dimas, Cuba)
 24H  09/1200Z 24.4N  85.9W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Key West, FL)
 36H  10/0000Z 26.4N  86.4W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (WSW Fort Myers, FL)
 48H  10/1200Z 28.6N  86.1W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Miramar Beach, FL)
 72H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Louisville, GA)
 96H  12/1200Z 37.8N  73.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Chincoteague Island, VA)
120H  13/1200Z 42.8N  59.0W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Halifax, NS, Canada)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Tropical Storm Michael  has become better organized this morning, with the deep convection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and upper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made several passes through the system during the past few hours, and somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt. This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours.

With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast. Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model. This new official forecast brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48 hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east coast of the United States. Michael should then become an extratropical low by day 5.

The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael’s center is moving northward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt. A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours as Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and central United States. After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn northeastward toward and across the southeastern United States, exiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5. Nearly all of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids. Overall the track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a fairly confident track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.

2. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for portions of the area. Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm’s exact track or intensity. Residents in the watch areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 20.6N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Cozumel, Mexico)
 12H  08/1800Z 21.7N  85.6W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Las Tumbas, Cuba)
 24H  09/0600Z 23.5N  86.1W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ENE Cancun, Mexico)
 36H  09/1800Z 25.2N  86.7W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Naples FL)
 48H  10/0600Z 27.2N  86.7W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (E Sarasota, FL)
 72H  11/0600Z 31.2N  84.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (Bellview, GA)
 96H  12/0600Z 35.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (Willow Creek, NC)
120H  13/0600Z 40.5N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH- Tropical Storm (ESE NYC, NY)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Tropical Storm Michael – On the last outbound leg to the north, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of 60 kt and an SFMR surface wind of 53 kt in very light rain. Since that time, deep convection has developed in the same area where those peak wind values were measured, so the initial intensity has been increased to a conservative 50 kt. Another recon aircraft is scheduled to investigate Michael around 0600 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 005/03 kt based on the recon and microwave satellite data. The bulk of the forecast rationale remains unchanged, although there remains some notable differences between the models that will ultimately determine where and when Michael will make landfall in about 72 h or so. The GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON models are tightly clustered along the western side of the guidance envelope. In contrast, the UKMET model is the farthest east of the dynamical models. Interestingly, the NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA model and the simple consensus IVCN models are close to each other and lie between the aforementioned model track dichotomy. Given that modest westerly vertical wind shear is expected to affect Michael throughout the forecast period until landfall occurs, which should keep the strongest convection, associated latent heat release, and pressure falls occurring in the eastern semicircle, the official forecast track leans more toward the HCCA/IVCN and UKMET model solutions. As a result, a slight eastward shift to the previous forecast track was made on this advisory through 48 hours, with little change made to the previous advisory track on days 3-5.

Michael’s overall cloud pattern remains unchanged, with the bulk of the convection being displaced into the eastern semicircle due to about 20 kt of westerly shear. However, the inner-core convective pattern within about 60 nmi of the center has been improving over the past few hours, and a recent SSMI/S microwave pass reveled a tightly curved band wrapping about 75 percent around the center. This better structure combined with very warm sea-surface temperatures of at least 29 deg C supports at least gradual strengthening until landfall despite the expected persistent westerly shear conditions. The HWRF model is the most robust of the intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of an intense hurricane. Therefore, the HRWF intensity solution has been discounted, and the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, which is close to but a little lower than the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models. Although the 72-h forecast shows a decrease to 75 kt, this is due to the cyclone being inland, and should not be interpreted as being an indication of a weakening trend prior to landfall.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm’s exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 20.0N  85.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cozumel, Mexico)
 12H  08/1200Z 21.1N  85.3W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cancun, Mexico)
 24H  09/0000Z 22.7N  85.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Las Tumbas, Cuba)
 36H  09/1200Z 24.4N  86.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Key West, FL)
 48H  10/0000Z 26.3N  86.1W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Fort Myers, FL)
 72H  11/0000Z 30.4N  84.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (Fort Braden, FL)
 96H  12/0000Z 34.9N  78.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (Ingold, NC)
120H  13/0000Z 40.7N  64.4W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Nantucket, MA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Tropical Storm Michael

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.4 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach the United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate along with satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles (275 km) to the northeast and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Cuban coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Tuesday.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Tropical Storm Michael  – Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east, closer to the convection. The Air Force aircraft has measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 40-45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt.

Due to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 020/3 kt. The overall forecast reasoning has not changed much since the previous advisory. Although there could be some additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical storm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central United States. A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, Michael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough. The track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario, however, significant along-track (forward speed and timing) differences remain. The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern Gulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has Michael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted eastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward initial position. The latter portion of the track forecast is again close to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track guidance spread.

Michael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear. The shear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days while the system moves over warm waters. This should allow for steady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael to hurricane strength within the next couple of days. It should also be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the storm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about 36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the storm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC forecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm’s exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 19.2N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Pulticub, Mexico)
 12H  08/0600Z 20.1N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cozumel, Mexico)
 24H  08/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Las Tumbas, Cuba)
 36H  09/0600Z 23.2N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ENE Cancun, Mexico)
 48H  09/1800Z 25.0N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (WSW Everglades City, FL)
 72H  10/1800Z 29.2N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (WSW Port St. Joe, FL)
 96H  11/1800Z 33.7N  80.4W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (Paxville, SC)
120H  12/1800Z 39.0N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Atlantic City, NJ)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Tropical Storm Michael  – Satellite and radar data indicate that the depression continues to become better organized, but surface data suggests the circulation may be somewhat elongated. There is still evidence of westerly shear as the center is located near the western edge of the main convective mass, but there has been an increase in banding over the eastern semicircle since yesterday afternoon. The depression appears to be close to tropical storm strength and Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are between 30-35 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system early this afternoon and should provide a better assessment of the intensity of the cyclone. For now, the intensity is held at a possibly conservative 30 kt.

The moderate westerly shear that is affecting the depression is forecast to gradually decrease over the next day or two as an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves westward and weakens. This, in combination with warm waters, should allow for gradual strengthening as the system moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly all of the intensity models bring the cyclone to hurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico in 2 to 3 days, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous advisory and again lies near the ICON intensity consensus. This is a little below the more aggressive HWRF and HCCA models.

The depression is moving northward at about 5 kt. The system is forecast to move generally northward during the next 2 to 3 days, with some increase in forward speed as it moves between a deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United Sates. A northeastward turn is expected after 72 hours as the aforementioned trough progresses eastward across the central United States. The dynamical models generally agree on the overall scenario, but there are still large difference in forward speed. In fact, the ECMWF ensemble has members that are still over the Gulf of Mexico in 5 days, and others that reach southern New England in that time period. The NHC forecast is near the left side of the guidance envelope through 48 hours out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF that are both on that side of the track spread. After that time, the NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus aids to account for both the along and cross track spread of the guidance.

Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:

1. The depression is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 19.2N  86.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Pulticub, Mexico)
 12H  08/0000Z 20.0N  86.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cozumel, Mexico  )
 24H  08/1200Z 21.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (E Isla Contoy, Mexico)
 36H  09/0000Z 23.2N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Cancun, Mexico)
 48H  09/1200Z 24.9N  87.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Key West, FL)
 72H  10/1200Z 28.7N  86.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Tropical Storm (S Fort Walton Beach, FL)
 96H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Louisville, GA)
120H  12/1200Z 37.8N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Ocean City, MD)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Satellite and radar data indicate that the depression continues to become better organized, but surface data suggests the circulation may be somewhat elongated. There is still evidence of westerly shear as the center is located near the western edge of the main convective mass, but there has been an increase in banding over the eastern semicircle since yesterday afternoon. The depression appears to be close to tropical storm strength and Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are between 30-35 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system early this afternoon and should provide a better assessment of the intensity of the cyclone. For now, the intensity is held at a possibly conservative 30 kt.

The moderate westerly shear that is affecting the depression is forecast to gradually decrease over the next day or two as an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves westward and weakens. This, in combination with warm waters, should allow for gradual strengthening as the system moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly all of the intensity models bring the cyclone to hurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico in 2 to 3 days, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous advisory and again lies near the ICON intensity consensus. This is a little below the more aggressive HWRF and HCCA models.

The depression is moving northward at about 5 kt. The system is forecast to move generally northward during the next 2 to 3 days, with some increase in forward speed as it moves between a deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United Sates. A northeastward turn is expected after 72 hours as the aforementioned trough progresses eastward across the central United States. The dynamical models generally agree on the overall scenario, but there are still large difference in forward speed. In fact, the ECMWF ensemble has members that are still over the Gulf of Mexico in 5 days, and others that reach southern New England in that time period. The NHC forecast is near the left side of the guidance envelope through 48 hours out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF that are both on that side of the track spread. After that time, the NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus aids to account for both the along and cross track spread of the guidance.

Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:

1. The depression is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 19.2N  86.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Pulticub, Mexico)
 12H  08/0000Z 20.0N  86.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cozumel, Mexico)
 24H  08/1200Z 21.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Isla Mujeres, Mexico)
 36H  09/0000Z 23.2N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (NE Cancun, Mexico)
 48H  09/1200Z 24.9N  87.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Key West, FL)
 72H  10/1200Z 28.7N  86.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (S Fort Walton Beach, FL)
 96H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm ( Louisville, GA)
120H  12/1200Z 37.8N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (E Chincoteague, VA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Tropical Storm Michael forming – Radar data from Belize and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the low pressure system centered just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula has continued to become better organized, with deep convection consolidating just to the northeast of the low-level center. Dvorak estimates have increased to T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5 from SAB, indicating that the convective pattern has become sufficiently organized for the low to now be declared a tropical depression. The maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data.

The Belize radar data was extremely helpful in locating the depression’s center, and the system’s 12-hour average motion is north-northwestward, or 340 degrees, at a very slow 3 kt. The depression is expected to move generally northward during the next 3 days, gradually gaining speed as it enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the western Atlantic and an advancing deep-layer trough over the western half of the United States. After day 3, the trough is expected to cause the cyclone to turn northeastward and accelerate further across the southeastern United States. While the track models agree on the general scenario, there are some speed differences, most notably with the ECMWF model being slower than the other guidance. Also, the ECMWF and GFS models are located along the western edge of the guidance envelope. In light of these facts, the new NHC prediction is just a little slower than the previous one, and it lies to the west of the TVCN multi-model consensus and the HCCA model during the first 3 days of the forecast.

The depression is still being hampered by 20-30 kt of westerly shear, however it is also located in an environment of upper-level diffluence to the southeast of a stationary trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The shear in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone is forecast to gradually abate during the next 2-3 days while the diffluent upper-air pattern continues, and along with sufficiently warm waters of 28-30 degrees Celsius, all indications are that the depression will gradually strengthen while it moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, nearly every piece of intensity guidance brings the cyclone to hurricane strength before it reaches land, including the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models, which all show significant deepening of the central pressure. The updated NHC intensity forecast generally lies between the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA model for the entire forecast period, and it now explicitly shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength by 72 hours.

Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:

1. The depression is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 18.6N  86.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Mahahual, Mexico)
 12H  07/1800Z 19.4N  86.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Punta Allen, Mexico)
 24H  08/0600Z 20.8N  86.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Puerto Morelos, Mexico)
 36H  08/1800Z 22.3N  86.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ENE Isla Mujeres, Mexico)
 48H  09/0600Z 23.9N  87.1W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Key West, Florida)
 72H  10/0600Z 27.6N  87.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Pensacola, Florida)
 96H  11/0600Z 32.0N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (Cobb, Georgia)
120H  12/0600Z 37.0N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WNW Virginia Beach, VA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Tropical Storm Michael forming – The cloud pattern has improved in organization and surface pressures are gradually falling, but there is no evidence that the system is a tropical cyclone at this time. All indications are, however, that a tropical depression will likely form at any time soon. Strong wind shear is expected to affect the disturbance, and the SHIPS model only show a modest strengthening. This is in contrast to some global models and the HWRF, which are more aggressive in developing this system.

Since the environment is marginally favorable, the NHC forecast only gradually strengthens the system at the rate of the intensity consensus IVCN. However, the forecast is highly uncertain given the solution of the global models. Since the system does not have a well-defined center, the initial motion is also uncertain. The best estimate is toward the north or 360 degrees at 6 kt. Over the next 2 or 3 days, the cyclone will be embedded within the deep southerly flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a sharp mid-latitude trough advancing eastward over the United States. This flow pattern will force the system to move northward at 5 to 10 kt across the eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, the system should have moved inland and be weakening. It should then race northeastward farther inland across the eastern U.S. The track guidance envelope is remarkably quite tight. This increases the confidence in the track forecast primarily after the cyclone forms.

Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:

1. This system is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm by late Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 18.8N  86.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Pulticub, Mexico)
 12H  07/1200Z 19.5N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Tulum, Mexico)
 24H  08/0000Z 21.0N  86.2W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW ancun, Mexico)
 36H  08/1200Z 22.3N  86.1W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW María la Gorda, Cuba)
 48H  09/0000Z 23.8N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Key West, FL)
 72H  10/0000Z 27.4N  87.2W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (WSW Pensacola, FL)
 96H  11/0000Z 32.0N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (Beatrice, GA)
120H  12/0000Z 38.5N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (Shiloh, VA)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Satellite  imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras. The associated showers and thunderstorms show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday while the system moves slowly northward. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Surface observations and satellite  data indicate that a broad area of low pressure is centered near the coast of Honduras. This system is producing a large area of disturbed weather extending from Central America east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development, and a tropical depression will likely form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly toward the northwest and north.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America, and these rains should then spread over western Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

A broad area of low pressure centered near the northeastern coast of Honduras is drifting northwestward and producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity from Central America east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola.

Although strong winds aloft persist just to the north of the system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive enough to allow slow development. A tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward to northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Showers and thunderstorms  associated with an area of low pressure located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua have become more concentrated during the past several hours. Although strong winds aloft are located just to the north of this system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive enough to allow slow development, and a tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Surface observations  and satellite data indicate that an area of low pressure is located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua. This system is accompanied by an extensive area of disturbed weather extending from Central America eastward through Hispaniola. Upper-level winds are not currently favorable for tropical cyclone formation, but environmental conditions are forecast to become less hostile and a tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico as the system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area centered near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras is producing an extensive area of disorganized clouds and thunderstorms over the central and western Caribbean Sea, as well as portions of Central America. While surface pressures are relatively low in the area, upper-level winds are currently not favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Environmental conditions could become less hostile by late this weekend or early next week, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

A large cyclonic gyre, defined by a broad area of low pressure typical of this time of the year, covers a portion of Central America and the western Caribbean Sea and is producing an extensive area of disorganized clouds and thunderstorms. While surface pressures are relatively low in the area, upper-level winds are currently not favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Environmental conditions could become less hostile this weekend and early next week, allowing for some slow development as the system drifts northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 3 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean

A large cyclonic gyre, defined by a broad area of low pressure, typical of this time of the year, covers a portion of Central America and the western Caribbean Sea. This system is accompanied by an extensive area of disorganized clouds and thunderstorms, and although surface pressures are relatively low in the area, upper-level winds are currently highly unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Environmental conditions could become less hostile this weekend and early next week allowing some slow development in this region as the system drifts northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 3 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

A broad area of low pressure covers the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and portions of Central America. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, however, some slow development within this broad circulation is possible this weekend and early next week as it drifts northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 3 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend while the low drifts across the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

A broad area of low pressure  located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms extending from Central America eastward through Hispaniola. There are no signs of a surface circulation at this time, but conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual development of this system late this week and this weekend while the low drifts generally northward during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week and this weekend while the low drifts generally northward during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week and this weekend while the low drifts generally northward during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

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