Tropical Storm Paul

Post Tropical Storm Paul 0200 Hours September 12 2018
Post Tropical Storm Paul 0200 Hours September 12 2018

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018

For the first time since 14 August, the northeast Pacific has no tropical cyclones. Paul (see Monday night video below) has lacked organized deep convection for over 12 hours and has therefore been declared a remnant low. The initial intensity is still 30 kt, based on ASCAT data from around 0500 UTC which showed a few wind vectors between 25 and 30 kt, but weakening should resume soon due to the lack of deep convection. The remnant low is moving west at around 8 kt, and a west to west-southwest motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next few days until dissipation occurs later this week.

This is the last NHC advisory on Paul.Post Tropical Storm Paul Distances 2300 Hours September 11 2018

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 22.3N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 12H  12/1800Z 22.4N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 24H  13/0600Z 22.4N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 36H  13/1800Z 22.4N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 48H  14/0600Z 22.3N 131.8W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 72H  15/0600Z 21.8N 132.4W   20 KT  25 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018

Paul does not have much time left as a tropical cyclone. The low-cloud center is displaced to the west of a diminishing area of deep convection. The intensity is held at 30 kt at this time, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Since the cyclone will soon be moving over SSTs below 24 deg C, the system will likely lose its remaining deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours, or sooner.

The initial motion is west-northwest or 285/9 kt. As the cyclone becomes increasingly shallow, it should turn toward the west and eventually west-southwest following the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA corrected consensus prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 22.3N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 12H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 24H  12/1800Z 22.8N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 36H  13/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 48H  13/1800Z 23.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 72H  14/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 96H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018

The center of Paul  remains to the east of a small area of deep convection; a consequence of persistently northeasterly shear. The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt using a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. Slow weakening is anticipated as Paul moves into a stable, drier air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures. Most of the global models suggest deep convection will cease tomorrow, and remnant low status is indicated at that time.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A slow turn toward the west is forecast in 36 hours as the weakening cyclone becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The southward model trend from the previous forecast continues this cycle, and the NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction.Tropical Depression Paul Distances 0500 Hours September 11 2018

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 22.3N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 12H  12/0000Z 22.5N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 24H  12/1200Z 22.8N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 36H  13/0000Z 23.1N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 48H  13/1200Z 23.2N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 72H  14/1200Z 23.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH - Tropical Depression (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Paul has not strengthened since the last advisory. Satellite imagery shows that the disorganized low-level center is located on the northeastern edge of the main convective mass, while the cyclone is being influenced by fairly strong easterly shear. The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Although the shear is forecast to relax during the next couple of days, Paul will then be moving over marginal SSTs and into a drier air mass. Therefore only modest strengthening is predicted during the next day or so, followed by a leveling off of the intensity. The official forecast is a little below the previous one, but above most of the latest numerical guidance.

Paul is moving slowly northwestward, or 320/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue northwestward on the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the next day or so. Later in the forecast period, a ridge to the north of the system should cause Paul to turn toward the west-northwest. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical model consensus.Tropical Storm Paul Distances 0500 Hours September 9 2018

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 17.9N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 12H  10/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 24H  10/1200Z 20.1N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 36H  11/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 48H  11/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 72H  12/1200Z 22.8N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 96H  13/1200Z 23.7N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
120H  14/1200Z 24.5N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Sep 9 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Paul, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Satellite data indicate that depression has strengthened. The cyclone has a large curved band that wraps across the western half of the circulation, but banding features remain limited to the east of the center. A partial ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed 30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant. Based on that data and the 2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Paul.

Paul will likely strengthen some more during the next couple of days while it remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist environment. However, significant strengthening appears unlikely because of continued moderate east-northeasterly shear during the next day or so. The opportunity for intensification should end in a few days when the system moves over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and into a drier and more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast is again nudged downward, but it still lies at the high end of the model guidance.

Satellite fixes suggest that Paul has turned sharper to the northwest than expected. Smoothing through the fixes yields an initial motion estimate of 320/7. A continued northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two. After that time, Paul should turn to the west-northwest in response to a mid-level ridge to its north and then slow down by the end of the forecast period when it becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track has been adjusted northward to account for the change in the initial motion and position.Tropical Storm Paul Distances 2300 Hours September 8 2018

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 17.1N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 12H  09/1800Z 18.2N 118.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 24H  10/0600Z 19.4N 119.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 36H  10/1800Z 20.6N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 48H  11/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 72H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 96H  13/0600Z 23.5N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
120H  14/0600Z 24.5N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

GOES-16 visible imagery shows the center of the depression  on the edge of a convective mass, with a large part of the eastern part of the circulation exposed due to shear. Dvorak estimates are a little higher than the last advisory, but the evidence is not strong enough yet to upgrade the system to a tropical storm, so the winds will stay 30 kt. Gradual strengthening is anticipated while the cyclone remains over warm waters within a light-to-moderate shear environment. After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off quite a bit and weakening should begin. The biggest change is that the model guidance is considerably lower in this cycle, perhaps due to easterly shear persisting for a bit longer. Only a small decrease was made to the intensity forecast at long range, but later advisories could be lower if model trends continue.

Visible imagery also helped reposition the depression about a degree west of the last advisory. Ironically, the initial motion estimate is unchanged, still 290/10 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico should steer the system northwestward for the next day or so, then the dominant eastern Pacific subtropical ridge is forecast to turn the system back toward the west-northwest. Numerical guidance is a fair distance west of the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend, resulting in a large westward adjustment to the NHC forecast after absorbing the initial position change.Tropical Storm Paul Forming Distances 1100 Hours September 8 2018

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 15.8N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 12H  09/0600Z 16.5N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 24H  09/1800Z 17.6N 118.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 36H  10/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 48H  10/1800Z 19.9N 121.3W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 72H  11/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
 96H  12/1800Z 22.3N 129.0W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)
120H  13/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Honolulu, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

The area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking for several days has enough organized deep convection this morning to be classified as a tropical depression . Some northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone, with the apparent center on the northeastern side of a growing area of deep convection. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak classification from TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast while the cyclone remains over warm waters within a light-to-moderate shear environment. After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off quite a bit and weakening should begin. The NHC forecast is close to, but a little above, the model consensus near peak intensity to account for the low bias the model guidance has had for many eastern Pacific storms this year.

An uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/10. All of the model guidance turn the cyclone northwestward by tomorrow as the cyclone rounds the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A turn back toward the west-northwest is anticipated in a few days due to the system coming under the influence of the primary eastern Pacific subtropical ridge. For a first advisory, the model guidance isn’t in terrible disagreement, so the NHC prediction will lie near close to the various consensus and corrected-consensus aids.Tropical Storm Paul Forming Distances 0500 Hours September 8 2018

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 16.1N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Socorro Island, Mexico)
 12H  09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Socorro Island, Mexico)
 24H  09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Socorro Island, Mexico)
 36H  10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 48H  10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 72H  11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
 96H  12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)
120H  13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Cabo San Lucas, Mexico)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 7 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Olivia, located about 1500 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

If this storm system is named, it will be Tropical Storm Paul.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Olivia, located a little more than 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

The broad area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking for a few days is now located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula. Although the shower activity has not become any better organized during the past few hours, environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Olivia, located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure is centered a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The shower activity associated with this low is gradually becoming better organized, and environmental conditions appear to be conducive for continued development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 3 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Norman, located well east of Big Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Olivia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure could form well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Some slow development of this system is possible later this week while it moves west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Florence, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean and on newly formed Tropical Storm Gordon, located near the southwest coast of Florida.  

1. A tropical wave located more than 400 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Sep 3 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Norman, located about 1250 miles east of Big Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Olivia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure could form well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

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