Tropical Storm Lane

Hurricane Lane Track 1400 Hours August 18 2018
Hurricane Lane Track 1400 Hours August 18 2018

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Hurricane Lane (see new Friday video below) remains an impressive hurricane in geostationary satellite imagery. The distinct 15 nmi-wide eye is surrounded by a ring of convection with clouds tops around -65 to -70C. The clouds tops have warmed slightly but the subjective and objective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers are unchanged so the initial intensity is maintained at 120 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane should keep the hurricane on a west-northwestward to westward heading during the next 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward which is expected to take Lane on a more westward course between 36 and 72 hours. By day 4, Lane will be approaching the western portion of the ridge which should result in a turn back toward the west-northwest. The latest iterations of the UKMET and GFS models have shifted southward but remain along the northern side of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile, the ECMWF remains along the southern side of the guidance and also depicts a much faster forward speed. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly southward to be near the latest consensus aids.

The intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous advisory. Lane will be moving over SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius throughout the forecast period, but some west to northwesterly vertical shear is expected to affect the hurricane. As a result, gradually weakening is indicated in the official forecast over the next few days. A more significant increase in shear late in the forecast period could result in a faster rate of weakening at days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance during the first 24 to 48 hours, and then is closest to the HFIP corrected consensus later in the period.

Lane will move into the Central Pacific Basin very soon and this is last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Lane can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST.

Hurricane Lane Distances 1100 Hours August 18 2018
Hurricane Lane Distances 1100 Hours August 18 2018
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 12.5N 139.7W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  19/0600Z 12.9N 141.4W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  19/1800Z 13.4N 143.6W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  20/0600Z 13.7N 145.6W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  20/1800Z 13.9N 147.5W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  21/1800Z 14.1N 151.1W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  22/1800Z 14.8N 154.7W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  23/1800Z 15.9N 158.2W   60 KT  70 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Hurricane Lane’s  inner-core convective organization has continued to improve with satellite intensity estimates vacillating between T6.0/115 kt and T6.5/127 kt during the past 6 hours. The 15-nmi-diameter eye remains quiet distinct and is embedded within a solid ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. An average of the various intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON support increasing the intensity to 120 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 285/13 kt. There has been little change in the models over the past couple of days, and the latest NHC guidance, especially the consensus track models, required no significant changes to the previous advisory track. The large expansive subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane is forecast to remain intact and gradually build westward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands throughout the 120-h forecast period. As a result, Lane is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so, and then turn westward by day 3, maintaining that motion on days 4 and 5. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus models. On the forecast track, Hurricane Lane is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin in about 9 hours at around 0000 UTC.

Although Lane will be remaining over 27.0-27.5 deg C SSTs during the forecast period, increasing westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear to around 15 kt, along with a slightly drier mid-level environment, is expected to induce slow but steady weakening by 24 hours. Although Lane could strengthen a little more before the prolonged weakening begins, the general intensity trend should be downward. However, the rate of weakening is held a little above the intensity guidance owing to the warmer SSTs indicated by raw data than what the SHIPS model guidance is using.Hurricane Lane Distances 0500 Hours August 18 2018

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 12.3N 138.2W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  19/0000Z 12.8N 140.0W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  19/1200Z 13.4N 142.3W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  20/0000Z 13.8N 144.3W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  20/1200Z 14.1N 146.3W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  21/1200Z 14.5N 150.1W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  22/1200Z 14.9N 153.5W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  23/1200Z 15.8N 157.0W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018

The satellite presentation of Lane   has improved significantly during the past several hours with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection and symmetric outflow. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt. The hurricane is moving within an environment of light shear, and this should allow some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, guidance suggests that a slight weakening should begin perhaps to a modest increase in shear. The NHC forecast does not weaken Lane as fast as indicated by the intensity guidance.

Lane continues to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt, steered by the trade winds south of the subtropical high. Since the steering pattern is not expected to change much, this general motion should continue during the next 3 to 5 days. An expected weakening of the trades should result in a small decrease in the hurricane’s forward speed. Track models are tightly clustered during the first 72 hours, and this increases the confidence in the forecast. After that time, the model agreement is not as good, resulting in a wider guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north and ECMWF to the south. The NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model ensemble and the corrected consensus HCCA which are in the middle of the envelope. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast.

Hurricane Lane Distances 2300 Hours August 17 2018
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 12.1N 137.0W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  18/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  19/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  19/1800Z 13.7N 143.6W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  20/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  21/0600Z 14.5N 149.5W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  22/0600Z 14.8N 153.1W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  23/0600Z 15.7N 156.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

A series of microwave overpasses and conventional visible/infrared imagery show that Lane’s  inner core continues to develop rapidly. The eye in the visible presentation has begun to clear out, and the lower frequency microwave images show a completely enclosed, solid inner convective ring. The subjective and objective T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt.

The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed from 6 hours ago, and Lane is still predicted to quickly strengthen to major hurricane intensity later tonight, and has the potential to become a category 4 hurricane in 24 hours. The environment certainly appears favorable enough for this 24-hour trend to occur and the hurricane regional and statistical intensity guidance reflect strengthening, but the NHC forecast is much higher than the NOAA HCCA and the IVCN consensus models during the first 24 hours. Beyond 36 hours, Lane should begin to gradually weaken in response to increasing westerly shear. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of HCCA and IVCN at these times.

The initial motion continues to be westward or 275/14 kt. Lane is forecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days. Little change was made to the official track forecast, with only minor along-track adjustments after 72 hours, and the NHC forecast is basically a compromise of the various consensus models.Hurricane Lane Distances 1100 Hours August 17 2018

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 11.5N 134.1W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  18/0600Z 11.7N 136.4W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  18/1800Z 12.2N 139.3W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  19/0600Z 12.9N 141.8W  120 KT 140 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  19/1800Z 13.5N 144.1W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  20/1800Z 14.4N 148.3W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  21/1800Z 14.9N 152.3W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  22/1800Z 15.3N 156.2W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Tropical Storm Lane Becomes Major Hurricane Lane cloud pattern has improved significantly this morning, and the cyclone is currently undergoing rapid intensification. A warming ragged eye is now evident in GOES-15/16 IR BD-curve enhancement, and a white curved band with cold tops of -70 to -75C wraps about 90% around the cyclone’s circulation. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective analysis support an increase of the wind speed to 85 kt for this advisory.

Lane appears poised for further rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours. Impressive outflow in all quadrants, warm SSTs, and the absence of earlier noted dry air intrusion all point to this scenario. The peak intensity based on the hurricane models and the statistical guidance is forecast to be within the next 24-36 hours. Afterward, the thermodynamic environment looks a little less conducive and the large-scale models as well as the statistical intensity guidance agree that increasing westerly vertical shear will induce a slow weakening trend. The official forecast is above the guidance during the first 36 hours, but is close to the HMON hurricane model, and is hedged toward a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models through the remaining portion of the forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be nearly due west, or 275/14 kt. Lane should continue to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction through the entire forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one with just a slight adjustment to the south, and is very close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 11.2N 132.9W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  18/0000Z 11.6N 135.0W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  18/1200Z 12.1N 137.9W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  19/0000Z 12.6N 140.7W  115 KT 130 MPH - Category 4 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  19/1200Z 13.3N 143.3W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  20/1200Z 14.3N 147.6W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  21/1200Z 14.8N 151.8W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  22/1200Z 15.3N 155.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lane continues to gradually strengthen. Recent microwave images show a well-defined low-level eye, but this feature is not yet apparent in geostationary satellite images. The latest satellite images show an organized central dense overcast, but convection has decreased in the outer bands. An average of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 70 kt.

The environmental factors suggest that continued steady or rapid strengthening is likely during the next couple of days. However, there could be some intrusions of dry air that might interrupt the rate of strengthening. Nonetheless, it seems likely that Lane will become a major hurricane within the next couple of days. By the end of the forecast period, the environment looks a little less ideal with drier air and an increase in shear likely causing slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and it remains at the high end of the model guidance.

Hurricane Lane Distances 0500 Hours August 17 2018
Hurricane Lane Distances 0500 Hours August 17 2018

After wobbling to the north late yesterday, Lane has resumed a more westward motion at 14 kt. The hurricane is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during the next several days as it continues to be steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. There is some north-south spread amongst the models with the UKMET on the southern side of the guidance and the GFS and HWRF on the northern side. This spread appears to be associated with how much influence a mid- to upper-level low off the Baja California coast has on Lane’s steering flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, favoring the various consensus models, and is slightly to the left of the previous forecast track. Lane is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 36 to 48 hours.

The initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted outward based on a 0544 UTC ASCAT-B pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 11.4N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  17/1800Z 11.8N 133.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  18/0600Z 12.2N 136.6W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  18/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  19/0600Z 13.4N 141.9W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  20/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  21/0600Z 15.0N 150.7W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  22/0600Z 15.5N 155.3W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Satellite images indicate that Lane is trying to form a ragged eye, with an interesting mid-level mesocyclone rotating counterclockwise around the northern side of the circulation. While Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB indicate Lane is already a hurricane, values from microwave data are a bit lower, and the cyclone only recently started to potentially form an eye. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, close to the latest CIMSS SATCON figure. Further intensification is expected, and given the warm waters, low shear and moderate mid-level humidity, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility. The new NHC forecast is basically an update from the previous one, on the high side of the guidance, and could be conservative.

The initial motion estimate continues at 275/11. The synoptic pattern is well defined with a subtropical ridge persisting to the north. While the ridge could weaken somewhat in a few days, a west or west-northwestward track is anticipated throughout the forecast period. The spread in the guidance has decreased somewhat since the last advisory, and the newest model consensus has basically come in right on top of the last NHC forecast. Thus the new NHC track prediction is nearly unchanged, staying close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids.

Tropical Storm Lane Distances 1100 Hours August 16 2018
Tropical Storm Lane Distances 1100 Hours August 16 2018
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 10.6N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  17/0600Z 10.9N 130.6W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  17/1800Z 11.4N 133.4W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  18/0600Z 11.9N 136.2W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  18/1800Z 12.5N 139.1W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  19/1800Z 13.8N 143.9W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  20/1800Z 14.8N 148.2W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  21/1800Z 15.3N 152.5W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Lane appears to be intensifying this morning, with a more symmetric presentation on satellite imagery and pulsing deep convection near the center. A recent SSMI/S microwave pass indicates that an inner core is trying to form, although it isn’t well defined yet. The current intensity estimates continue to display a large spread, ranging from the overnight scatterometer data at low-end tropical- storm strength, from hurricane strength in the TAFB Dvorak estimate. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt with the increased organization, and this remains a low confidence estimate.

While so far Lane has only been slowly intensifying, the large-scale environment appears favorable for more significant intensification to occur soon, especially with current signs of a primitive inner core. Thus the wind speed forecast will maintain the quick strengthening from the previous forecast, and there remains a significant chance that rapid intensification will occur during the next few days. The biggest change from yesterday is that more of the global models are indicating that westerly shear could affect Lane in the central Pacific, so more weakening is shown at day 5. Otherwise, the new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous one and is on the higher side of the guidance.Tropical Storm Lane Distances 0500 Hours August 16 2018

The initial motion estimate is 275/11. The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane should continue to be the dominant steering mechanism, forcing the tropical cyclone to move westward or west-northwestward for the next several days. While the model spread is low in the short range, it notably increases by days 4/5. The GFS-based guidance is showing Lane move slower than the rest of the guidance, which allows the eastern periphery of the ridge to erode due to an inverted mid-level trough, and consequently a more poleward motion of the cyclone. The ECMWF and UKMET show Lane moving faster and basically missing any influence of that trough, causing the storm to move faster to the west. There are no strong signals pointing me to either solution, so the official forecast follows the trend of the consensus, which ends up slightly west of the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 10.6N 127.6W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  17/0000Z 10.8N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  17/1200Z 11.2N 132.1W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  18/0000Z 11.7N 134.9W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  18/1200Z 12.2N 137.6W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  19/1200Z 13.5N 142.7W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  20/1200Z 14.7N 147.3W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  21/1200Z 15.3N 151.5W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

The latest satellite images suggest that Lane   is getting better organized with its cloud pattern now consisting of a central dense overcast feature and curved bands over the western semicircle. There is a large spread in the intensity estimates tonight. All of the Dvorak-based estimates have increased to 3.5/55 kt. However, an ASCAT pass around 0600 UTC showed maximum winds of only 35 kt. Since Lane is a compact system, it is possible that the resolution of ASCAT is not sufficient to capture its maximum winds, therefore, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt as a compromise of these data. It should be noted that this is a low confidence initial intensity estimate.

Lane is now moving due westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The global models all show a mid- to upper-level trough off the Baja California peninsula cutting off and moving westward during the next few days. This feature will weaken the ridge a little, and that should cause Lane to make a slight turn to the west-northwest in a couple of days. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, Lane is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin this weekend.Tropical Storm Lane Distances 2300 Hours August 15 2018

The environmental conditions appear quite favorable for Lane to strengthen. During the next several days, the wind shear near Lane is expected to be less than 10 kt, humidity values relatively high, and SSTs sufficently warm. Therefore, steady or even rapid strengthening appears likely. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the model guidance, and shows Lane becoming a hurricane in 12 to 24 hours, and a major hurricane within the next few days. This forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 10.4N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  16/1800Z 10.6N 128.3W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  17/0600Z 10.9N 131.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  17/1800Z 11.4N 133.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  18/0600Z 11.8N 136.4W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  19/0600Z 13.1N 141.6W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  20/0600Z 14.4N 146.3W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  21/0600Z 15.1N 150.3W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Overall, Lane’s cloud pattern has become a little better organized this evening. Modest east-northeasterly shear, however, along with some drier air, appears to be undercutting the diffluent outflow above 300 mb and is impinging the north through northeast portion of the cyclone. An outer deep convective curved band, on the other hand, is now developing over most of the eastern half of the system. The surface center is also located a bit further in the northern edge of an expanding, colder, central dense overcast. The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt, and is based on a compromise of the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates (T3.0), and a 2205 UTC SATCON analysis (51 kt).

Little change has been made to the previous intensity forecast, and it still shows a rapid increase of nearly 55 kt in 48 hours based on the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) which indicates a 67 percent chance of RI occuring during this particular period. The NHC forecast is weighed heavily on a blend of the COAMPS-TC and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model (HCCA), and indicates Lane intensifying into a category 3 hurricane in 3 days.

Tropical Storm Lane Distances 1700 Hours August 15 2018
Tropical Storm Lane Distances 1700 Hours August 15 2018

Lane’s motion is estimated to be westward, or 265/11 kt, a little to the left of due west, and is being steered by a broad mid-level ridge to its north-northwest. The large-scale models continue to show the ridge weakening in 2 days in response to a southwestward and westward retrograding cut-off mid-level low currently located southwest of the Baja California coast. At that time, the cyclone should gradually turn west-northwestward and continue in this general direction through the remaining period of the forecast. The official forecast is very close to the previous one, with only minor along-track adjustments, and sides with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 10.4N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  16/1200Z 10.4N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  17/0000Z 10.7N 129.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  17/1200Z 11.1N 132.5W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  18/0000Z 11.6N 135.2W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  20/0000Z 14.3N 145.4W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  21/0000Z 15.2N 149.3W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Satellite images indicate that Lane is strengthening. The central dense overcast continues to grow, with a large banding feature in the western semicircle and expanding outflow in most quadrants. ASCAT data recently showed maximum winds of about 40 kt, so that will be the initial wind speed, which is also near a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

While the latest microwave data indicate that the inner core of Lane remains loosely organized, the large-scale environment appears to be favorable for intensification. Low shear, warm waters of 27.5-28C, and moderate levels of mid-level moisture all support strengthening at a higher rate than climatology. However, since the inner core is not well established yet, the intensity forecast will be held just below rapid strengthening (30 kt in 24 h) for day 1. There is still a strong signal for that threshold to be met in the day 2-3 period from the DTOPS rapid intensification index, so the forecast will remain for a major hurricane to form during that time. This forecast is close to a blend of the latest NOAA-HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus models.Tropical Storm Lane Diatances 1100 Hours August 15 2018

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 10.6N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  16/0600Z 10.5N 126.2W   50 KT  60 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  16/1800Z 10.7N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  17/0600Z 11.1N 130.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  17/1800Z 11.6N 133.6W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  18/1800Z 12.6N 138.7W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  19/1800Z 14.0N 143.6W  110 KT 125 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/1800Z 15.2N 148.2W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

The storm continues to move just south of due west, now at about 11 kt. The synoptic pattern is well established with a subtropical ridge expected to only slightly weaken in the medium-range period, causing a slight west-northwestward turn in the central Pacific. While the overall spread has increased in the 1200 UTC guidance, the latest model consensus has barely budged since the previous advisory, although it does fit the recent westward trend. The latest official track forecast is again adjusted in that direction, close to the eastern Pacific track model consensus TVCE.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lane , located over 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

The latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone continues to become better organized with a growing central dense overcast along with ample banding features. Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, and with the increased organization since the last advisory, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.Tropical Storm Lane Distances 0500 Hours August 15 2018

Further intensification is likely over the next few days as Lane  encounters a conducive large-scale environment consisting of low shear and fairly warm waters. Rapid strengthening is a distinct possibility after the cyclone forms an inner core, which could take a day or so given that there is still some drier air in the eastern semicircle. The DTOPS rapid intensification index indicates a high probability of significant strengthening over the next 3 days, with over a 70 percent chance of a 65-kt increase during that time. Given that some of the guidance (FSSE and HMON) are even higher than that, this seems like a reasonable forecast and is indicated below. The new NHC forecast is raised from the last advisory, and is close to a blend of the previous forecast and the corrected-consensus guidance. Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems destined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector.

The storm continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane is forecast to weaken slightly over the next few days, which will likely steer the cyclone to the west or west-northwest throughout the period. There is very little spread in the guidance, with the most notable change since the last advisory being a small shift to the southwest. The latest official track forecast is adjusted in that direction, and is not too far from the latest model consensus. Given the tightly packed guidance, this appears to be a high-confidence forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 10.7N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  16/0000Z 10.6N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  16/1200Z 10.7N 127.7W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  17/0000Z 11.0N 130.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  17/1200Z 11.5N 132.4W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  18/1200Z 12.6N 137.6W  100 KT 115 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  19/1200Z 13.9N 142.2W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W  105 KT 120 MPH - Category 3 (ESE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, located over 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually getting better organized with deep convection increasing near the center and in curved bands over the western semicircle. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system was a little stronger.

The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt. A deep-layer ridge situated to the north of the cyclone should keep the system moving on a general westward path at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, the models suggest that a mid- to upper-level low will cut off and cause a break in the ridge. This change in the flow pattern should cause the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest in the 3- to 5-day time frame. The models have generally shifted slightly to the left this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to strengthen during the next several days with the wind shear expected to remain low, less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities fairly high, and SSTs marginally warm. The intensity models respond to these favorable conditions, and all of them now show the system becoming a hurricane within the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast follows that theme, and shows a faster rate of strengthening than the previous forecast. This prediction lies closest to the HCCA and ICON models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 10.8N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE Hilo, Hawaii)
 12H  15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE Hilo, Hawaii)
 24H  16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE Hilo, Hawaii)
 36H  16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W   55 KT  65 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE Hilo, Hawaii)
 48H  17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (SE Hilo, Hawaii)
 72H  18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (SE Hilo, Hawaii)
 96H  19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 1 (SE Hilo, Hawaii)
120H  20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 1 (SE Hilo, Hawaii)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. A well-defined low pressure system is located about 1050 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Associated thunderstorm activity continues to gradually increase in organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Wednesday while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large low pressure system is located about 950 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized, and
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. A weak low pressure area located about 1250 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although some slow
development is still possible during the next day or so, the low is forecast to reach cooler waters by late Tuesday or Wednesday, which would limit further development chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become more concentrated near the center of a low pressure system located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next 2 to 3 days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

2. A broad low pressure area located about 1250 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing showers and a few thunderstorms. While this system is showing some signs of organization, the low is forecast to reach cooler waters by Tuesday afternoon, which would limit further development chances. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become more concentrated near the center of a low pressure system located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next 2 to 3 days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

2. A broad low pressure area located about 1250 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing showers and a few thunderstorms. While this system is showing some signs of organization, the low is forecast to reach cooler waters by Tuesday afternoon, which would limit further development chances. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in association with a low pressure area located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for slow development, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. A broad low pressure area located a little over 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing showers and thunderstorms. While this system is showing some signs of organization, the low is forecast to reach cooler waters by tomorrow afternoon, which would limit further development chances. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development by the middle part of the week, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A broad low pressure area located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two before upper-level winds and water temperatures become less conducive. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 12 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located about 750 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development by the middle of next week, and a tropical depression could form by that time while the disturbance moves westward farther away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. Limited shower activity is occurring in association with Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy, located about 1400 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The low is expected to move slowly westward over colder waters, and regeneration into a tropical cyclone is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located about 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms. This system has shown some increase in organization since yesterday, and additional development is possible over the next couple of days. Upper-level winds appear to become more conducive for development by the middle of next week, and a tropical depression could form by that time while the wave moves westward farther away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

Showers and a few thunderstorms have redeveloped in association with Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy, located about 1400 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. However, the low is expected to continue moving westward over cold waters, and regeneration into a tropical cyclone is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing a minimal amount of showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system appears unlikely, due to unfavorable environmental conditions, while it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the central Atlantic in a couple of days. The low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while it meanders through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy, located more than a thousand miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms centered a little more than 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. This activity is beginning to show some signs of organization. Only limited development is anticipated for the next day or two, but a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the disturbance moves westward well away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy, located more than a thousand miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms centered a little more than 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. This activity has become a little better organized since yesterday, and conditions appear to be favorable for some development of this system by the middle of next week while the disturbance moves westward away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

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