Tropical Storm Ernesto

Tropical Storm Ernesto Post-Tropical Track 0500 Hours August 18 2018
Tropical Storm Ernesto Post-Tropical Track 0500 Hours August 18 2018

Tropical Storm Ernesto Post-Tropical Wind 0500 Hours August 18 2018NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018

Ernesto (see Friday afternoon video below) lost all its associated deep convection and the circulation is becoming elongated. On this basis, it is estimated that Ernesto has become a post-tropical cyclone. The system could still produce 35-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it should continue to slowly weaken during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone later today. The post-tropical cyclone’s circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday.

Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt, and this motion should continue until dissipation as indicated by guidance.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom tonight and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 51.9N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - Tropical Storm (SW of Dingle, Ireland)
 12H  18/1800Z 53.5N  13.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - Tropical Storm (W of Cleggan. Ireland)
 24H  19/0600Z 55.0N   5.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - (NE of Cairnryan, Scotland)
 36H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto’s  cloud pattern has deteriorated since this morning with deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming a little more separated from the low-level center. However, there is still enough organized convection to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone a little longer. The most recent satellite estimates and earlier ASCAT data still support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Ernesto will continue moving over colder waters and is expected to become post-tropical this evening. Little change in strength is predicted during the next 12-24 hours while the system moves over quickly across the northern Atlantic. Global models indicate that the cyclone will weaken as it approaches Ireland Saturday night and the system should merge with a frontal zone located across the central portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland by Sunday morning.

The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 27 kt. Now that the system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a rapid northeastward or east-northeastward motion should continue until dissipation occurs. There has been little change to the track guidance or the official forecast which lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 49.1N  29.8W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (W of Brest, Ireland)
 12H  18/0600Z 51.1N  23.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  (ESE of Baltimore, Ireland)
 24H  18/1800Z 53.2N  14.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (SW of Roundstone, Ireland)
 36H  19/0600Z 54.8N   5.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (SW of Portpatrick, Scotland)
 48H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto is somewhat surprisingly maintaining convection and well-defined banding features over the northern and eastern portions of its circulation despite being over SSTs of 20-21C. The cloud tops have warmed within the past couple of hours perhaps an indication that Ernesto  is finally beginning to lose its tropical characteristics. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates still supports an initial wind speed of 40 kt.

Ernesto will be moving over progressively colder waters during the next 12-24 hours and should become post-tropical later today or tonight. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so while the post-tropical cyclone cyclone moves quickly across the north Atlantic. The cyclone is forecast to weaken slightly as it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone that is expected to be located across the central portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland Saturday night and early Sunday.

The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 26 kt. A slightly faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 36 hours as Ernesto remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The models continue to be in good agreement, and the NHC track is close to the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 47.1N  32.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (ESE of Baltimore, Ireland)
 12H  18/0000Z 49.3N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  (ESE of Baltimore, Ireland)
 24H  18/1200Z 51.6N  18.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (ESE of Dingle, Ireland)
 36H  19/0000Z 53.5N  10.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (E of Eeshal Island, Ireland)
 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto  is maintaining its strength and status as a tropical storm despite being over very cool 21 deg C waters. Deep convection remains well organized in a curved band that wraps across the eastern half of the circulation. The system is likely benefiting from a moist and unstable airmass, which seems to be the reason why Ernesto has held onto tropical storm status longer than expected. The initial wind speed is again held at 40 kt, using a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates.

The convective organization is not expected to last much longer as Ernesto is tracking over steadily colder waters and will also be moving into an environment of higher shear. These hostile environmental conditions should cause the system to lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours, when the cyclone is forecast to be over SSTs of around 15 deg C. The post-tropical low is expected to gradually decay before it merges with a frontal zone near the United Kingdom in about 48 hours.

Ernesto is now well embedded in fast mid-latitude flow, and the latest initial motion estimate is northeastward at 22 kt. An even faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected until the system merges with the frontal zone. The models remain tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 45.6N  36.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (W of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 12H  17/1800Z 47.8N  31.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (SW of Brest, France)
 24H  18/0600Z 50.4N  23.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL (SW of Baltimore, Ireland)
 36H  18/1800Z 52.5N  14.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (SW of Ballybunion, Ireland
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that convective banding has increased closer to the center of Ernesto  today. The system has also lost much of its outer cloud bands and is no longer co-located with an upper-level low. On this basis, Ernesto is now being classified as a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based on recent satellite estimates and the earlier ASCAT data. Although the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters and become post-tropical very soon, the global models deepen the system somewhat due to baroclinic processes. In addition, the expected increase in the cyclone’s forward speed is likely to result in an increase in the wind speed. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for slight strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, with little overall change in intensity thereafter. The system is still predicted to merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday or Saturday night.

Ernesto continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving 045/16 kt. The cyclone should accelerate further while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered and little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 43.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 12H  17/0600Z 44.9N  37.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL - (W of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 24H  17/1800Z 47.7N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL - (W of Le Palais, France)
 36H  18/0600Z 50.2N  23.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - (W of Penzance, England)
 48H  18/1800Z 52.0N  15.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - (W of Dingle, Ireland))
 72H  19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WHILE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS…

Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that convective banding has increased closer to the center of Ernesto today. The system has also lost much of its outer cloud bands and is no longer co-located with an upper-level low. On this basis, Ernesto is now being classified as a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based on recent satellite estimates and the earlier ASCAT data. Although the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters and become post-tropical very soon, the global models deepen the system somewhat due to baroclinic processes. In addition, the expected increase in the cyclone’s forward speed is likely to result in an increase in the wind speed. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for slight strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, with little overall change in intensity thereafter. The system is still predicted to merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday or Saturday night.

Ernesto continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving 045/16 kt. The cyclone should accelerate further while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered and little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 43.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 12H  17/0600Z 44.9N  37.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 24H  17/1800Z 47.7N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL - (NE of Pontevedra, Spain)
 36H  18/0600Z 50.2N  23.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - (NE of Brest, France)
 48H  18/1800Z 52.0N  15.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - (WSW of Dingle, Ireland)
 72H  19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Convection developed closer to the center of Ernesto  early this morning, suggesting that the system was attempting to make the transition to a tropical cyclone, but that area of convection has weakened within the past couple of hours. Patches of deep convection continue over the outer portion of the circulation, and a very recent ASCAT overpass continues to show a rather large radius of maximum winds, indicating that Ernesto remains a subtropical cyclone. The ASCAT data showed a large area of 35-40 kt winds over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation, so the initial wind speed has been increased to 40 kt.

Ernesto has likely reached its peak intensity since it will be moving over much cooler SSTs later today, and the cyclone is expected to lose its subtropical characteristics late tonight or early Friday. The post-tropical cyclone should be able to maintain its intensity due in part to its expected fast forward speed over the North Atlantic. The global models indicate that the system will merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday.

Ernesto has turned northeastward and is beginning to accelerate, and is now moving at around 14 kt. The cyclone should be fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies within the next 24 hours, and a significantly faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. The track guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new NHC official forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 42.0N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 12H  17/0000Z 43.9N  40.4W   40 KT  45 MPH - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 24H  17/1200Z 46.7N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL - (NE of Pontevedra, Spain)
 36H  18/0000Z 49.5N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - (NE of Brest, France)
 48H  18/1200Z 52.0N  19.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - (ESE of Dingle, Ireland)
 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Ernesto has generally changed little during the past several hours. The subtropical storm continues to produce patches of convection in curved bands around the center. The circulation of the system is becoming a little elongated from north to south, and dry air is wrapping into the western portion of the system. The initial wind speed is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The subtropical storm has a limited amount of time to strengthen as it will remain over marginally warm waters and in a low wind shear environment for only another 12 hours. After that time, the cyclone is expected to cross over a sharp SST gradient and move into an environment of higher shear. These conditions should cause Ernesto to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours, when the SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to be near 20 deg C. The post-tropical system will likely maintain its intensity, due in part to its fast forward speed, until it merges with a frontal zone near the United Kingdom this weekend.

The storm continues to gradually speed up, and it is now moving north-northeastward at 11 kt. A turn to the northeast with a significant increase in forward speed is expected later today and Friday as a pair of shortwave troughs approach the storm, causing the system to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and this track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 40.8N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 12H  16/1800Z 42.4N  41.9W   40 KT  45 MPH - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 24H  17/0600Z 45.0N  37.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 36H  17/1800Z 47.8N  31.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - (SW of Brest, France)
 48H  18/0600Z 50.6N  23.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - (WSW of Baltimore, Ireland)
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

…ERNESTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC… SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC

LOCATION…39.7N 45.1W ABOUT 630 MI…1010 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto  was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 45.1 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast tonight and early Thursday, with that motion continuing through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Recent visible satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in convection near and to the east of the center of Ernesto this afternoon , but there has been little change in the overall organization of the subtropical storm. The satellite intensity estimate from TAFB remains an ST2.5, so the initial wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory. Ernesto is forecast to remain over marginally warm SSTs and in a low wind shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, and some modest strengthening is anticipated. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs below 20C and into an area of increasing vertical wind shear. As a result, Ernesto is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom in 3 to 4 days.

Ernesto is moving northward or 005/8 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northeastward tonight ahead of a mid-level trough that is located off the coast of the eastern United States. Ernesto is forecast to become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies by late Thursday and it is expected to accelerate northeastward at that time. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is again near the center of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 39.0N  45.7W   35 KT  40 MPH - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 12H  16/0600Z 40.4N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 24H  16/1800Z 42.6N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 36H  17/0600Z 45.1N  37.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL - (WSW of Vila do Corvo, Portugal)
 48H  17/1800Z 48.0N  31.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL - (SW of Brest, France)
 72H  18/1800Z 53.0N  15.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - (SW of Galway, Ireland)
 96H  19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Subtropical Storm Ernesto  located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 

Convection associated with the subtropical cyclone became better organized after the release of the previous advisory, but cloud tops have warmed recently with the convection becoming somewhat fragmented. An Hebert-Poteat subtropical classification of T2.5 from TAFB suggests that they system is producing gale-force winds, and recent scatterometer data that passed over the far eastern portion of the circulation revealed 30-kt winds. Since the instrument missed the radius of maximum winds, it is assumed that stronger winds exist over the eastern portion of the circulation, and the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the system a subtropical storm.

Ernesto  has about 24 hours over marginally warm SSTs and in a low- shear environment in which to strengthen. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over much colder water which should cause it to become post-tropical within 48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with a frontal zone associated with a larger extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.

The cyclone is moving northward at about 6 kt. A mid-level trough that is moving off the east coast of the United States should cause Ernesto to turn north-northeastward later today, and the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward by late Thursday as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new NHC track forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 38.1N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 12H  16/0000Z 39.3N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 24H  16/1200Z 41.3N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 36H  17/0000Z 43.6N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE St. John's, Newfoundland)
 48H  17/1200Z 46.4N  35.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  18/1200Z 52.3N  21.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

 

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Subtropical Depression Five located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  1115 UTC.

At 15/0900 UTC, the center of Subtropical Depression Five is  located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 45.6 West, about 882 nm W of the Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009  mb (29.80 inches). The subtropical depression is moving toward the north near 4 kt, and this general motion with a slight increase  in forward speed is expected today. A faster northeastward motion  is forecast to occur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained  winds are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Some strengthening is  forecast during the next day or so, and the subtropical depression is expected to become a subtropical storm later today.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

The low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring over the central Atlantic Ocean has developed sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center. Since the system has a large radius of maximum wind and is co-located with an upper-level low, it is being classified as a subtropical depression. The initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 30 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. This value is slightly below the latest satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. It is interesting to note that so far this hurricane season, four of the five systems have been a subtropical cyclone at some point in their lifetimes.

Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours or so while the system remains over warm SSTs and in fairly low wind shear conditions. After that time, sharply colder waters, drier air, and a significant increase in wind shear should cause extratropical transition in about 48 hours, or sooner, and a gradual weakening. The models show the post-tropical system merging with a frontal zone in 3 to 4 days.

The subtropical depression is moving slowly northward at about 4 kt. A north to north-northeastward motion is expected today as the system moves on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over the northeastern U.S. is anticipated to approach the cyclone, and that feature should cause the system to accelerate northeastward on Thursday and Friday. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 37.6N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE New York)
 12H  15/1800Z 38.5N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE New York)
 24H  16/0600Z 40.2N  44.4W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE New York)
 36H  16/1800Z 42.5N  41.9W   45 KT  50 MPH - Tropical Storm (SE New York)
 48H  17/0600Z 45.1N  37.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/0600Z 51.0N  24.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large non-tropical area of low pressure located about 750 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing showers and thunderstorms over the eastern and southern portions of its circulation as it interacts with a strong upper-level trough. While satellite imagery indicates that the low currently lacks a well- defined center, this system could acquire some additional subtropical characteristics during the next day or so. Later this week, the low is expected to move northeastward over colder waters and merge with a frontal zone over the northern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low appears to be forming to the east of the larger complex low pressure system centered several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. This new low could acquire some subtropical characteristics by Wednesday. However, after that time the low should be moving northeastward over colder waters and be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium...40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 700 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms mainly to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a somewhat more conducive for some subtropical or tropical development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move northeastward over the colder waters of the North Atlantic by late Thursday or Friday, which should limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located a little more than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for some tropical or subtropical development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move northeastward over the colder waters of the North Atlantic by late Thursday or Friday which should limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located a little more than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for some tropical or subtropical development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move northeastward over the colder waters of the North Atlantic by late Thursday or Friday which should limit any additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical broad area of low pressure is located a little more than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Conditions could become somewhat favorable for subtropical or tropical development during the next 2 or 3 days, and if formation occurs, the system should move toward the northeast over the north Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small, non-tropical, low pressure system located about 500 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit significant development during the next few days while the system moves south-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph over the central sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small, non-tropical, low pressure system located about 500 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south-southeast of its center of circulation. This low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics through the middle of the week while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of its center of circulation. This low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics through the middle of the week while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing a minimal amount of showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system appears unlikely, due to unfavorable environmental conditions, while it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the central Atlantic in a couple of days. The low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while it meanders through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some slight development of this disturbance is possible during the next day or two while it remains nearly stationary. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the central Atlantic in a few days. After it forms, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while it meanders over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms  is located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some slight development of this disturbance is possible during the next day or two while it remains nearly stationary. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the central Atlantic in a few days. The low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while moving slowly northeastward during the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A disorganized area of showers   and thunderstorms is located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week as it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the central Atlantic in a few days. The low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while moving slowly northeastward during the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are likely to limit development of this system for the next day or two, but some gradual development is possible after that time while the system moves slowly westward through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the central Atlantic in a few days. The low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while moving slowly northeastward for couple of days thereafter. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

If this storm system develops it will be named Tropical Storm Ernesto.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather  is located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some gradual development while the system moves slowly west over the next few days. By the middle of next week, stronger upper-level winds could limit the chance for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...20 percent.

Article Resources:

Video: BBC Weather warns tropical Storm Ernesto will pound Britain THIS WEEKEND | by CelebsNow

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