Tropical Storm Chris

Hurricane Chris Track 1100 Hours July 12 2018
Hurricane Chris Track 1100 Hours July 12 2018
Hurricane Chris 2300 Hours July 12 2018
Hurricane Chris 2300 Hours July 12 2018

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  2300 UTC.

Hurricane Chris (see Thursday video below) is a post-tropical cyclone, and it is expected to pass over or near the Avalon Peninsula of southeastern Newfoundland late afternoon and early evening today. The position of CHRIS at 12/1800 UTC was 45.8N 56.2W. The estimated minimum central  pressure was 989 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds were 60  knots with gusts to 75 knots. A frontal boundary is surrounding CHRIS at this time.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018

Hurricane Chris \Extratropical transition has been ongoing for the past few hours, with the rain shield continuing to expand and clouds tops warming in the northwestern semicircle. In addition, surface observations close to the center now show a sharp temperature gradient of almost 20 deg F across the center, which is indicative of the cyclone having merged with a cold frontal system. As a result, Chris has become a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone. The intensity of 60 kt is based on continuity with the previous advisory and earlier ASCAT scatterometer passes. Gradual weakening is forecast by all of the intensity model guidance, but the cyclone is still expected to remain a gale area through 72 hours.

Chris has made a slight westward jog, but the latest model guidance insists that the cyclone will start moving back toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 30-31 kt. Post-tropical cyclone Chris is forecast to remain embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerly flow on the east side of a broad, deep-layer trough moving eastward over the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada for the next 48 hours or so. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to slow down and begin moving northward as it interacts with a larger mid-latitude upper-level low. The NHC model guidance remains tightly packed, so only minor adjustments to the previous advisory track were required, and mainly in just the first 12 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chris is expected to pass over or near the Avalon Peninsula of southeastern Newfoundland around 2100-0000 UTC this afternoon and evening.

Hurricane Chris Wind History 1100 Hours July 12 2018
Hurricane Chris Wind History 1100 Hours July 12 2018

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 44.4N  57.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  13/0000Z 47.7N  52.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  13/1200Z 50.7N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  14/0000Z 53.5N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/1200Z 56.5N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  15/1200Z 61.6N  18.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 753 PM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

The center of Hurricane Chris  is located near 37.8N 65.7W at  11/2100Z, or about 503 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina. Chris is moving toward the NE, or 50 degrees, at 19 knots. On the forecast track, the center of Chris will pass near southeastern  Newfoundland on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure  is 976 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 80 knots with  gusts to 100 knots. Little change in strength is expected during  the day tonight, with some weakening forecast on Thursday. Chris  will likely also become a strong post-tropical cyclone on  Thursday.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

The eye of Hurricane Chris  has become a little less distinct and more cloud filled during the past few hours, but the overall cloud pattern remains quite impressive in satellite imagery. The respective wind radii were adjusted outward based on a 1454 UTC ASCAT-A overpass, which included one 65-kt surface wind vector in the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 80 kt based on a blend of Dvorak intensity estimates of T4.5/77 from both TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of T5.2/95 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 050/22 kt. Little change was made to the previous advisory track. Chris is now embedded within deep southwesterly flow ahead of a broad trough that is digging southeastward along the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The global models are in excellent agreement that the hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward for the next 72 hours, passing over or near southeastern Newfoundland in 24-36 hours as a strong extratropical cyclone. In contrast to several previous model runs, the latest NHC guidance shows very little cross-track spread or speed differences, and is tightly packed about the previous advisory track. The new forecast track closely follows the previous forecast and the consensus track models HCCA, TVCN, and FSSE.

During next 6 hours or so, Chris will be passing over a ocean thermal ridge consisting of SSTs of more than 28 deg C, which is associated with the Gulf Stream. As a result, little change in strength is expected during that time. However, by 24 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs colder than 12 deg C and encountering southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt, a detrimental combination that will induce rapid weakening and also result in transition to an extratropical cyclone. The new intensity forecast is a little lower than the various intensity model forecasts to account for stronger shear and colder water.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 37.8N  65.7W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (E of Ocean City, MD)
 12H  12/0600Z 40.6N  61.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (E of New York City, NY)
 24H  12/1800Z 44.9N  56.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (S of Saint-Pierre, NL)
 36H  13/0600Z 48.8N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (NE of St. John's, NL)
 48H  13/1800Z 51.9N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (W of Dingle, Ireland)
 72H  14/1800Z 58.4N  22.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (W of Leverburgh, Scotland)
 96H  15/1800Z 63.0N  14.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP SE of Höfn, Iceland)
120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

Hurricane Chris  – The IR signature of Chris has fluctuated substantially this morning. The eye became obscured by clouds shortly after sunrise, and an SSMIS overpass at 1120 UTC indicated that the vortex had become tilted, with the mid-level eye displaced to the east of the low-level center of circulation. Since that time, however, the eye has once again become more distinct in visible and IR imagery. Dvorak estimates from all agencies had decreased markedly at 1200 UTC but given the improvement of the cloud pattern since then, the initial intensity has been lowered only slightly, to 85 kt.

For the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will be approaching and crossing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and no further weakening is expected. In fact it is possible that Chris could even briefly re-intensify, as shown by some of the intensity guidance, although this is not explicitly shown in the forecast. Once the hurricane crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream in about 24 hours, all of the dynamical models indicate that Chris will quickly acquire extratropical characteristics and rapidly weaken while its wind field becomes more spread out. Given the lower initial intensity, the new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one for the first 36 hours, but very similar thereafter, and is close to a consensus of the global and hurricane dynamical models.

Almost no change has been made to the track forecast. Chris should continue accelerating toward the northeast ahead of an approaching mid-level trough over the next couple of days. By 96 hours, all of the global models forecast that Chris will begin to interact with another extratropical low, which should cause Chris to slow down, before the two lows eventually merge by day 5. The global models are still in very good agreement on the track of Chris, especially for the first 72 h of the forecast and confidence remains high in the track forecast.

Hurricane Chris Wind Arrival Times 1100 Hours July 11 2018
Hurricane Chris Wind Arrival Times 1100 Hours July 11 2018
INIT  11/1500Z 36.4N  67.8W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (SE of Virginia Beach, VA)
 12H  12/0000Z 38.7N  64.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (SE of Atlantic City, NJ)
 24H  12/1200Z 42.7N  59.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE of Shelburne, NS)
 36H  13/0000Z 46.9N  53.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (E of St. Mary's, NL)
 48H  13/1200Z 50.3N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (E of St. Anthony's, NL)
 72H  14/1200Z 56.8N  26.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (NW of Glasgow, Ireland)
 96H  15/1200Z 62.0N  16.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (SE of Vik, Iceland)
120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Chris , located more than 300 miles east of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

Location: 35.3°N 69.9°W
Moving: NE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Hurricane Chriscontinues to have a very distinct eye, but the surrounding convection is not as strong as a few hours ago. Dvorak T-numbers are either steady or lower, so the initial intensity is kept at 90 kt in this advisory. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a little during the next 12 to 18 hours while is moving over the Gulf Stream or warm waters. After that time, the hurricane will move over increasingly cold waters, and it should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics as it passes south of Newfoundland.

Satellite fixes indicate that Chris has increased its forward speed, and is now moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 19 kt. The hurricane is already embedded withing the fast flow ahead of a large mid-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the hurricane northeastward over the open Atlantic with additional increase in forward speed. Models are in remarkably good agreement and consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. This increases considerably the confidence in the track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 35.3N  69.9W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (SE of Nags Head, NC)
 12H  11/1800Z 37.2N  67.1W   95 KT 110 MPH - Category 2 (E of Cape Charles, VA)
 24H  12/0600Z 40.9N  62.1W   90 KT 105 MPH - Category 2 (E of Nantucket, MA)
 36H  12/1800Z 45.0N  56.8W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (E of Guysborough, NS)
 48H  13/0600Z 48.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (E of Bonavista, NS)
 72H  14/0600Z 55.5N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (NW of Dungloe, Ireland)
 96H  15/0600Z 63.0N  15.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (S of Höfn, Iceland)
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Hurricane Chris – Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the second hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology by more than six weeks. The aircraft found 850-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the southeastern quadrant, along with SFMR winds of 73-77 kt. Dropsondes in the the same area found equivalent surface winds of 73-74 kt, and the most recent central pressure observed was 980 mb. Furthermore, satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, based on a well-defined 20-nmi-diameter clear eye. These data support a solid 75-kt advisory intensity.

The initial motion is a slightly faster 050/09 kt. Chris is north of a narrow subtropical ridge, and water vapor imagery also indicates that Chris is beginning to feel the influence of a digging trough over the northeastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic states. The combination of these two features should gradually accelerate the hurricane northeastward at a faster forward speed through 96 hours. By the time Chris passes well southeast of Nova Scotia in 36 hours or so, the hurricane will be moving at a forward speed of more than 25 kt. On the new forecast track, Chris is still expected to move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 48-60 hours. The latest model guidance has a much larger spread in both cross-track and along-track motions. To smooth out these differences, the new forecast track is down the middle of the tighter HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN consensus model suite.

Now that Chris has moved away from the cold upwelling region, some additional intensification is forecast for the next 12 hours or so due to 27-28 deg C SSTs beneath the cyclone and the well-established current outflow pattern that is expected to persist during that time. Slow weakening should begin shortly after Chris peaks in intensity due to the cyclone moving over cooler waters, creating some modest upwelling as a result. By 36 hours, Chris will have moved well north of the Gulfstream and be moving over SSTs colder than 15 deg C. The combination of the much colder water and southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt should induce a rapid transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is above the intensity guidance through 12 hours, and then shows weakening after that similar to the LGEM and IVCN models. Now that Chris is moving away from the United States, the previously scheduled aircraft mission for 11/0600 UTC has been canceled.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 33.7N  72.4W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (NE of Myrtle Beach, SC)
 12H  11/0600Z 34.9N  70.7W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2 (SE of Nags Head, NC)
 24H  11/1800Z 37.1N  67.4W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (E of Cape Charles, MD)
 36H  12/0600Z 40.5N  62.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (E of New York City, NY)
 48H  12/1800Z 44.7N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (E of Port Dufferin, NS)
 72H  13/1800Z 51.0N  41.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (E of St. Anthony, NL)
 96H  14/1800Z 55.2N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (W of Downings, IE)
120H  15/1800Z 59.0N  12.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP (SW of Faroe Islands)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Tropical Storm Chris – During the past 6 hours, Chris has developed a well-defined eye in both satellite and radar imagery at times, with a diameter that has varied in size from 30 nmi to the present 20 nmi. The overall convective pattern has also become more symmetrical with well-established outflow present in all quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates are T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T4.0/65 kt from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT, and Chris certainly has the satellite appearance of being a hurricane. However, the intensity is being maintained at 60 kt for this advisory due to significant cold upwelling that has occurred beneath the cyclone when Chris was moving slowly during the previous 48 hours. The colder waters have likely stabilized the boundary layer, which has inhibited stronger winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The cold upwelling is supported by sea-surface temperature (SST) data from nearby NOAA Buoy 41002, which has shown 6 deg F of cooling during the past 48 hours, and is currently sitting at 76F. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chris this afternoon to provide a better intensity estimate.

Tropical Storm Chris Winds 0800 Hours July 10 2018
Tropical Storm Chris Winds 0800 Hours July 10 2018

Recent satellite and radar fixes indicate that Chris is finally moving northeastward at a faster forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is now 050/08 kt. The narrow subtropical ridge to the southeast of the cyclone is getting pushed northward by the remnants of Beryl, which has helped to finally nudge Chris toward the northeast. A further increase in forward speed is expected as a strong deep-layer trough digs southeastward along the U.S. east coast, accelerating the cyclone at forward speeds of 25-30 kt by 48 hours and beyond. Chris is forecast to pass well southeast of Nova Scotia in a couple of days, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 60 hours. The NHC track guidance remains in good agreement on the evolving steering flow regime, but there continues to be some pronounced speed differences. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN.

My best estimate, based on the data from Buoy 41002, is that significant upwelling likely occurred within the 30-kt wind radii while Chris was nearly stationary. Assuming that that is the case, then Chris will be moving over warmer waters shortly, which should allow for an increase in convection to occur and also for winds aloft to better mix downward to the surface. The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain modest at 10-15 kt for the next 24 hours, so gradual intensification is expected during that time. By 48 hours, Chris will have crossed over the north wall of the Gulfstream and be moving over SSTs colder than 20 deg C, which will combine with strong southwesterly wind shear, and cause Chris to rapidly transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast follows the FSSE intensity model through 36 hours, and then shows more significant weakening after that, similar to the SHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 33.1N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH - Category 1 (E of Myrtle Beach, SC)
 12H  11/0000Z 33.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (E of Wilmington, NC)
 24H  11/1200Z 35.6N  69.4W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (E of Nags Head, NC)
 36H  12/0000Z 38.4N  65.5W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (E of Ocean City, MD)
 48H  12/1200Z 42.0N  60.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (SE of Boston, MA)
 72H  13/1200Z 48.1N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1200Z 52.0N  31.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1200Z 54.0N  18.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Tropical Storm Chris  – Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Chris has changed little in strength during the past several hours. The aircraft has reported maximum flight-level of 63 kt at 700 mb to the southwest of the center, along with a somewhat-uncertain maximum SFMR surface wind estimate of 61 kt. The latest reported central pressure is 995 mb. Based on these, the initial intensity will be held at a possibly generous 60 kt. The aircraft also reported that a partial eyewall of 20-30 n mi diameter has formed, but has not yet been able to close off.

Chris has moved little since the last advisory, as it remains trapped in a break in the subtropical ridge. A large mid-latitude trough is forming over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States, and as this system develops southward it should break down the ridge and steer Chris to the northeast after about 12 h, with an increasing forward speed expected thereafter as the tropical cyclone enters the mid-latitude westerlies. Chris should pass east of the Canadian Maritimes in about 72 h, then pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland between 72-96 h. The track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, although some spread remains in the forecast forward speed. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models.

The sea surface temperature at NOAA buoy 41002, located 45 n mi southwest of the center of Chris, has dropped to near 25C, and it is possible that the temperatures are colder under the center. This ocean cooling, due to upwelling caused by the slow motion of the storm, has likely slowed the intensification of Chris despite an otherwise favorable environment and storm structure. Significant intensification now appears unlikely until the cyclone actually starts moving. Based on this and the forecast track, the new intensity forecast will delay Chris’ intensification into a hurricane until the 18-24 h point. After that, Chris should strengthen until it moves north of the Gulf Stream and starts to merge with a frontal system. Extratropical transition is expected to be complete by 72 h, with the extratropical low gradually decaying as it moves across the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance except during the first 12 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 32.3N  74.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 32.6N  73.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 33.5N  72.7W   70 KT  80 MPH (Category 1)
 36H  11/1200Z 35.1N  70.4W   80 KT  90 MPH (Category 1)
 48H  12/0000Z 37.7N  66.6W   80 KT  90 MPH (Category 1)
 72H  13/0000Z 44.0N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/0000Z 49.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/0000Z 52.0N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Tropical Storm Chris Satellite, Doppler radar, and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data this afternoon indicate that inner-core region of Chris has improved in organization, and that the cyclone has strengthened some. A peak 850-mb flight-level of 73 kt was measured in the southwestern quadrant along with slightly rain-contaminated SFMR surface winds of 53-59 kt. The central pressure has also decreased to 997-996 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt for this advisory.

NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance fixes thus far today indicate that Chris has essentially remained nearly stationary for the past 9 hours. Steering should remain weak for the next 24 hours or so due to the cyclone being trapped in a large break in the subtropical ridge, thus little motion is expected. However, by 36 hours and beyond, a deepening mid-latitude trough along the U.S. Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts is forecast to gradually lift out Chris to the northeast, with more significant northeastward acceleration occurring by 72 hours and beyond. Chris is expected to move across the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada on days 4 and 5 as a powerful extratropical low, possibly passing over southeastern Newfoundland around the 96-hour time period. The NHC model guidance continues to show fairly significant along-track or speed differences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close to the consensus track models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

A band of very dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 45 percent has completely encircled Chris, and the cyclone is beginning to take on the appearance of an annular formed hurricane with a new 15-nmi-diameter, cloud-filled eye having within the central convective cloud mass during the past couple of hours. The well-defined inner-core wind field, in conjunction with the with SSTs near 28 deg C and a low vertical wind shear regime, should act to maintain inner-core convective development. The result should be gradual strengthening over the next day or, with Chris becoming a hurricane later tonight or Tuesday morning and reaching a peak intensity of 80 kt by 36 hours. Gradual weakening should commence by 48 hours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler water and southwesterly wind shear begins to increase to near 20 kt. By 72 hours and beyond, Chris will be over SSTs less than 20 deg C and within stronger shear environment ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone before the system approaches Newfoundland in about 96 hours. The extratropical low is forecast to merge with a cold front in 96-120 hours, which should enhance the extratropical transition process. The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of previous two advisories, and similar to the intensity model FSSE, which is sightly higher than the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 32.2N  74.4W   60 KT  70 MPH - Category 1 (E of Charleston, SC)
 12H  10/0600Z 32.3N  74.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (E of Charleston, SC)
 24H  10/1800Z 32.8N  73.6W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (ESE of Myrtle Beach, SC)
 36H  11/0600Z 34.0N  71.9W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (E of Wilmington, NC)
 48H  11/1800Z 36.1N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (SE of Virginia Beach, VA)
 72H  12/1800Z 42.2N  61.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/1800Z 48.3N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/1800Z 52.0N  35.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Tropical Storm Chris   is centered near 32.2N 74.5W at 09/1500 UTC  or 187 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and is  stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum  sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered  moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 71W-76W.

The cyclone  is expected to remain nearly stationary during the next day or so. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and  Chris is forecast to become a hurricane Tuesday. A northeastward  motion is forecast to begin late Tuesday, and Chris is forecast to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Tropical Storm Chris – A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft investigating Chris this morning has found little change in the overall structure of the cyclone. The peak 8000-ft wind measured was 60 kt to the south of the center along with a 51-kt SFMR surface wind. The minimum pressure has also remained steady at 999 mb during the entire mission which is still ongoing. Although an eye-like feature has briefly appeared in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Morehead City and in satellite imagery as well, the convection surrounding that feature has been mostly shallow and ragged. Based on these data, the intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory.

Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance fixes the past several hours and satellite fixes indicate that Chris has moved little. Steering currents are forecast to remain weak for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in continued slow movement. By 36 hours, however, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward out of Canada and into the northeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states, which should help to eject the cyclone northeastward. By 48 hours and beyond, the shortwave trough will help to amplify a deep-layer trough near the U.S. east coast, causing Chris to accelerate northeastward toward the Atlantic Canada region. The NHC model guidance continues to show little cross-track differences, but fairly significant along-track or speed differences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close to the consensus track models.

A narrow band of dry mid-level air has wrapped all the way around and into the inner-core region, which has caused some erosion of the associated convection, along with some upwelling. However, the reconnaissance wind data indicated that Chris has a relatively small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 15 nmi to the south and about 25 nmi to the north. This well-defined inner-core wind field, coupled with warm water and low vertical shear conditions, should enable the cyclone to mix out the dry air later today and tonight, which will allow for strengthening to begin. The intensification process should be steady at a near-normal rate for the next 36 hours or so, followed by gradual weakening in a few days as the waters beneath Chris begin to cool and the wind shear increases from the southwest. By 72 hours and beyond, Chris will be over much colder water (SSTs less than 20 deg C) and within a high shear environment of 30 kt or more, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone as the system approaches Newfoundland. The extratropical low is forecast to interact or merge with a strong cold front by 96 hours when the cyclone is near Newfoundland, which will enhance the extratropical transition process. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and shows Chris reaching hurricane strength by Tuesday. Chris could reach a peak intensity of 80 kt between the 36 and 48 hour time periods before weakening begins shortly thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 32.2N  74.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 32.3N  74.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 32.4N  74.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (SE of Myrtle Beach, SC)
 36H  11/0000Z 33.3N  73.0W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (SE of Myrtle Beach, SC)
 48H  11/1200Z 34.8N  70.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1 (NE of Morehead City, NC)
 72H  12/1200Z 40.5N  64.0W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (E of New York City, NY)
 96H  13/1200Z 47.0N  55.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/1200Z 51.1N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Tropical Storm Chris – Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 32.4N 74.6W at 09/0900 UTC 
or 174 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving S at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained  wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate  convection is from 31N-34N between 71W-76W. The cyclone is  expected to remain nearly stationary during the next day or so.  Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and  Chris is forecast to become a hurricane late today or tonight. 

 After the expansion of deep convection during the evening it appears that some drier air has been entrained into the circulation which has caused a general warming of the cloud tops and some erosion of the deep convection overnight. However, the banding remains well organized and the overall structure of the cyclone has not changed appreciably. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the system has found that the minimum pressure has dropped to 999 mb, but the flight-level and SFMR winds still support an initial intensity of 50 kt.

Recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Chris is drifting southward. Steering currents are expected to remain quite weak during the next 36 hours as Chris is situated between a couple of mid-level highs and a mid- to upper-level trough to its northeast. By late Tuesday, a deep-layer trough moving across the Great Lakes region should begin to lift Chris out toward the northeast. The cyclone is predicted to accelerate northeastward during the remainder of the forecast period as it gets caught in strong southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The track models are in good agreement on this general scenario but there are some differences in how fast Chris accelerates over the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly northwestward to be in better agreement with the latest guidance, and it remains near the model consensus to account for the forward speed differences among the various track models.

The cyclone should be able to mix out the dry air that it entrained while it is located over warm water and in light to moderate vertical wind shear conditions. This should allow strengthening during the next couple of days, but there could be some upwelling beneath the slow moving cyclone which could temper the rate of intensification. The new NHC track forecast shows a slightly slower rate of deepening during the next 24 to 36 h, but still forecasts Chris to become a hurricane later today or tonight, and reach about the same peak intensity as shown in the previous advisory. The hurricane should become extratropical by 96 h, and the global models indicate that steady weakening will occur after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 32.4N  74.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 32.4N  74.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 32.5N  74.7W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1 (SE of Myrtle Beach, SC)
 36H  10/1800Z 33.0N  73.9W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1 (E of Myrtle Beach, SC)
 48H  11/0600Z 34.2N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (SE of Morehead City, NC)
 72H  12/0600Z 39.0N  66.4W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1 (E of Atlantic City, NJ)
 96H  13/0600Z 45.5N  59.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/0600Z 49.5N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern continues to become better organized, and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have increased to 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. This was confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane which reported flight-level winds of 51 kt on the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt in this advisory. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast continues to call for Chris to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. This is in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the HCCA model consensus which strengthen Chris to a hurricane in a couple of days. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13 degree C Canadian waters, and this should encourage extratropical transition.

The steering currents have collapsed, and the cyclone has barely moved all day. These currents are foreast to remain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2 days. A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the eastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris northeastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The NHC forecast continues to be in the middle of the track guidance envelope and follows closely the corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 32.7N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH (NE of Charleston, SC)
 12H  09/0600Z 32.5N  74.6W   55 KT  65 MPH (NE of Charleston, SC)
 24H  09/1800Z 32.3N  74.5W   60 KT  70 MPH (NE of Charleston, SC)
 36H  10/0600Z 32.3N  74.5W   65 KT  75 MPH (NE of Charleston, SC)
 48H  10/1800Z 33.0N  74.0W   75 KT  85 MPH (E of Myrtle Beach, SC)
 72H  11/1800Z 36.5N  69.5W   75 KT  85 MPH (E of Virginia Beach, VA)
 96H  12/1800Z 43.5N  61.5W   55 KT  65 MPH (E of Nova Scotia, Canada)
120H  13/1800Z 50.0N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Tropical Storm Chris  is centered near 32.9N 75.0W at 08/1500 UTC  or 139 nm S of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and is stationary at this time. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered  moderate to isolated strong convection is from 30N-34N between  72W-77W. T.S.Chris is forecast to strengthen over the next 48  hours.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

Tropical Storm Chris and Tropical Storm Beryl Satellite 1400 hours July 8 2018
Tropical Storm Chris and Tropical Storm Beryl Satellite 1400 hours July 8 2018

Tropical Storm Chris  is centered near 33.0N 75.5W at 08/0900 UTC  or 150 nm S of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and it is stationary at this time. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb.  Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.  Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from  30N-33N between 74W-81W. T.S.Chris is forecast to strengthen over  the next 48 hours.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane has been traversing the circulation of Chris, and found that the wind field is gradually becoming better defined, while the central pressure has dropped to 1006 mb. Maximum winds so far from the SFMR are 40 kt, and this will be the intensity assigned to Chris in this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft will check the cyclone this afternoon. Recent high resolution satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized with the low-level center now embedded within the convection. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Chris to become a hurricane in about 36 hours in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the HCCA model consensus. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13 degree C water, and this should encourage extratropical transition.

Since the steering currents surrounding Chris collapsed, the cyclone has barely moved since yesterday. These currents are foreast to remain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2 days. A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the eastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris northeastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the track guidance envelope and follows closely the corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 32.9N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 33.0N  74.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 32.5N  74.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 32.5N  75.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 32.5N  75.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 34.5N  72.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 50.0N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

The depression is gradually becoming better organized. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the center is located on the northern side of a convective burst and to the east of a broken curved band. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. This estimate also uses data from NOAA buoy 41002 located about 60 n mi south-southeast of the center. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system overnight, and it should provide a better estimate of the cyclone’s intensity.

Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has now stalled, as forecast. The cyclone is caught in very weak steering currents between two mid-level ridges and a mid- to upper-level trough to its north. A very slow southeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days as ridging builds to the north of the system. Thereafter, a sharp northeastward turn with an abrupt increase in forward speed is predicted when a deep-layer trough approaches the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the south of the previous one in the short term based on the latest guidance.

The depression is presently over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream Current and it will remain over these warm SSTs during the next few days. In addition, light to moderate wind shear and perhaps some baroclinic forcing from the approaching trough should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Extratropical transition is forecast to occur in a little more than 4 days when the system is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current and move over very cold waters.

Although the depression is expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina coastline, the tight pressure gradient between the depression and high pressure over the northeastern U.S. is expected to produce gale-force winds over Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. See products issued by the National Weather Service forecast offices for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 32.9N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 32.8N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 32.6N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 32.4N  74.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 32.3N  73.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 34.5N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 41.0N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 49.0N  53.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

Tropical Storm Chis Forming  – An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the depression a few hours ago and found that the circulation is still somewhat elongated with a minimum pressure of 1015 mb. The plane measured flight-level winds which support an initial intensity of 30 kt. These winds were confined to a convective band south of the center. The satellite presentation has not improved very much since the morning advisory. The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours or so. Additional intensification is anticipated when the cyclone moves toward the northeast over the open Atlantic as indicated by most of the models. The cyclone will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics over cold waters by the end of the forecast period.

The depression continues to be embedded within very weak steering currents, and little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time, the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough.

Guidance continues to clearly indicate the cyclone’s slow drift during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast thereafter. The NHC forecast continues to be in the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the multi-model consensus. Guidance continues to suggest that the cyclone will not approach the coast and that the forecast tropical-storm-force winds will not reach the U.S. coast. On this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 32.9N  75.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 33.0N  75.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 33.0N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 32.9N  74.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 33.0N  73.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 34.5N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1
 96H  11/1800Z 40.0N  63.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 48.0N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

Tropical Storm Chris  – Although the convection has increased this morning and it seems a little better organized, surface observations and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds remain at 25 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will check the depression later this morning, so we will have more information about the intensity and structure of the depression later today. The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening at a rate very close to the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period.

The depression is embedded within very weak steering currents, and little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time, the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. Guidance clearly indicates the cyclone’s slow motion during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast thereafter. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the multi-model consensus.

Guidance continues to suggest that the forecast tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will not reach the U.S. coast. On this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of the depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 33.1N  74.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 33.4N  74.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 33.5N  74.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 33.5N  73.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 33.5N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 35.5N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 39.5N  64.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 47.0N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

Tropical Depression Three   is centered near 33.2N 74.6W at  07/0900 UTC or 130 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving  N-NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1015 mb.  Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.  Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 240  nm SE and 100 nm NW semicircles of center. Three is forecast to  strengthen to a tropical storm on Sun morning and further  strengthen to a hurricane on Wed as it accelerates northeast  away from the area.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018

T.D. Three is currently centered near 32.6N 74.1W as of 11 PM  EDT. The depression is moving NNW at 5 kt, with central pressure  of 1015 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed from 28N-33N between 72W-77W. The depression is forecast to move slowly
northward overnight and on Saturday. A decrease in forward speed  is expected by Saturday night, and the depression is forecast to  meander well off the southeast U.S. coastline on Sunday and  Monday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few  days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to  investigate the cyclone on Saturday.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

A well-defined surface low has developed into T.D. Three, currently centered near 32.2N 73.8W as of 5 PM EDT. The  depression is moving NNW at 4 kt, with central pressure of 1016  mb. Maximum winds are 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Scattered  showers and thunderstorms are observed from 28N-32N between 72W- 76W. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday, with gradual strengthening expected through Monday. A reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Saturday.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about a thousand miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined but still weak low pressure system located a few hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast  are gradually becoming better organized, although surface pressures in the area remain high. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days while it moves slowly northwestward and stalls or meanders near the coast of North Carolina over the weekend. Interests along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This storm is now Invest-96 should become Tropical Storm Chris.  A well-defined surface low is located about midway between the  southeastern United States and Bermuda  and accompanied by  disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions  are favorable for gradual development over the next couple of  days as the low moves slowly northwestward and later northward  off the coast of North Carolina. This system has a high chance  of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

1. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward and stalls or meanders near the coast of North Carolina over the weekend. Interests along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Article Resources:

Video: HURRICANE CHRIS in NEW JERSEY

Please follow and like us: