Tropical Storm Beryl

Tropical Storm Beryl 2300 Hours July 14 2018
Tropical Storm Beryl 2300 Hours July 14 2018
Tropical Storm Beryl Satellite 2300 Hours July 14 2018

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018

Subtropical storm Beryl  (see July 14 2:00pm video below) is centered near 37.3N 65.2W as of  14/2100 UTC or about 345 mi north of Bermuda, moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained  wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Little change in  strength is forecast through Sunday. After that, Beryl should  weaken as it moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected  to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by Monday. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north and south of the  center.

 

Shear and dry air appear to have taken a toll on Beryl this evening as deep convection associated with the system has dissipated. Beryl now consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory, which is based on a ST2.5 classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, but this could be generous. Beryl will be traversing marginally warm waters of the Gulf Stream during the next 12-18 h, however the system appears to be ingesting a drier and more stable airmass from the northwest which is likely to prevent strengthening. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over much cooler water and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions, which is likely to cause the system to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast assumes that deep convection will re-develop in with the cyclone overnight, but if that does not occur Beryl could become a remnant low much sooner. The global models suggest that the remnant low will dissipate southwest of Newfoundland within 72 hours.

Beryl has moved northward this evening, but the longer-term initial motion estimate is north-northeast or 025/11. The storm should move slowly north-northeastward to northeastward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, but there has been a significant reduction in the predicted forward speed of Beryl in the various dynamical models which has required an adjustment to the official forecast. The new NHC track is slower than, and to the left of, the previous advisory, but is in good agreement with the TVCA and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 38.1N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 39.6N  64.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 41.1N  62.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z 42.5N  60.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z 44.3N  58.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018

Tropical Storm Beryl – While the overall coverage and intensity of convection associated with Beryl has decreased in the past few hours, the remaining convection has become better organized into a curved band. There are also indications that the center may be reforming to the north in response to this band. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on continuity from the previous advisory and a subtropical intensity estimate of 35-40 kt from TAFB.  Beryl remains embedded in an upper-level trough that is well defined in GOES-16 air mass imagery, and thus is still a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical cyclone.

The initial motion is 035/12, which is somewhat uncertain due to the possible reformation of the center. Otherwise, there is little change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Beryl is in relatively light southwesterly flow between the subtropical ridge and the mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer the cyclone generally northeastward for the next two to three days. The guidance has shifted a little to the left of that of the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track is generally a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

The intensity guidance is showing little additional development, and the new intensity forecast will reflect this in keeping the intensity at 35 kt for 24 h. However, the center of Beryl will be passing over the Gulf Stream during the next 12-18 h, so it would not surprising if some intensification occurred. After that, the system should decay over cold water with little or no extratropical transition. The new forecast now calls for dissipation before the 72 h point in agreement with the dynamical models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 37.3N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 38.8N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 40.8N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 43.0N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 44.9N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Tropical Storm Beryl  – Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  1745 UTC.

What was earlier an area of low pressure associated with the  remnants of Beryl has regenerated into subtropical storm Beryl  centered near 36.4N 65.7W as of 14/1700 UTC or about 250 nm north  of Bermuda, moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 101 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Beryl is forecast to maintain intensity through Sun, then  weaken to a depression afterwards as it continues on a northeastern track motion over cold water. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 180 nm  north- northeast of the center.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1135 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Outlook to update the discussion on the remnants of Beryl An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of tropical Storm Beryl  is now located about 270 miles north-northwest of Bermuda. Satellite imagery indicates that the associated thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized, and if current trends continue advisories on a subtropical or tropical cyclone could be re-initiated later today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl  is located about 250 miles north-northwest of Bermuda. This system has become better organized during the past several hours, and it is producing winds of near gale force east of the center. Some additional development is possible today and tonight, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form before the system moves over cold water north of the Gulf Stream on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris, located a little over 200 miles west-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

1. An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl is located about 400 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. Little or no development is expected through Friday while the system moves northeastward. However, environmental conditions could become a little more favorable over the weekend when the disturbance will be moving northward or north-northeastward over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and interacting with a strong upper-level trough. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Chris, located about 400 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl  is located about midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Little or no development is expected through Friday while the system moves northeastward. However, environmental conditions could become a little more favorable over the weekend when the disturbance will be moving northward over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and interacting with a strong upper-level trough.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The remnants of Beryl  continue to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the Bahamas northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Little or no development is expected through Thursday, but conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week and over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly northward and northeastward over the western Atlantic. Additional information on this disturbance can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

1. The remnants of Berylcontinue to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bahamas and extending northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week and over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly northward and northeastward over the western Atlantic. Additional information on this disturbance can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

Tropical Storm Beryl – For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl is located over much of the Bahamas and extends northwestward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week while the disturbance moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic. The previously scheduled Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight to investigate the disturbance this afternoon has been canceled. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The remnants of Beryl  are producing gusty winds and areas of heavy rain over much of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent Atlantic waters. This system is expected to move west-northwestward across the rest of Hispaniola today and over the southeastern Bahamas this evening. Little development is expected during the next day or so due to land interaction and unfavorable upper-level winds. However, the disturbance is expected to turn northward over the western Atlantic on Wednesday where upper-level winds could become a little more conducive for the regeneration of a tropical cyclone later this week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of Hispaniola and the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through those areas. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

1. The remnants of Beryl  are producing gusty winds and areas of heavy rain over portions of central and eastern Hispaniola, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. This system is expected to move west-northwestward across the rest of Hispaniola today and over the southeastern Bahamas this evening. Little development is expected during the next day or so due to land interaction and unfavorable upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic on Wednesday where upper-level winds could become a little more conducive for the regeneration of a tropical cyclone later this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of Hispaniola and the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through those areas. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

The remnants of Beryl  are producing strong gusty winds and areas of heavy rain over the north-central Caribbean Sea, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. This system is expected to move west- northwestward across Hispaniola overnight and Tuesday with little development expected during that time due to land interaction and unfavorable upper-level winds. A turn to the northwest and then north is expected to begin by Tuesday night taking the system across the Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone Wednesday night and Thursday when the system is forecast to be near or north of the Bahamas. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of Hispaniola and the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through those areas. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

A gale, the remnants of Beryl , at 1200 UTC is over the Leeward  Islands from 17N-19.5N between 63W-66W. Winds are 25-30 kt with  frequent gusts to 35 kt. Seas are to 11 ft. Gale conditions are  forecast to end at 10/0000 UTC this evening. Scattered moderate  to strong convection is from 15N-20N betweeen 62W-68W. The  remnants of Beryl is expected to move quickly west-northwestward for the next day or so, passing over Hispaniola tonight and emerging
over the Atlantic waters near the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday. Unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with land should prevent redevelopment during the next day or so, but environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday when the system is forecast to turn northward near the Bahamas and the western Atlantic.

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl  is producing locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The disturbance is expected to move quickly west-northwestward for the next day or so, passing over Hispaniola tonight and emerging over the Atlantic waters near the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday. Unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with land should prevent redevelopment during the next day or so, but environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday when the system is forecast to turn northward near the Bahamas and the western Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium...50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl  is producing locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and the northern Leeward Islands. The disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward for the next day or so, passing over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and over Hispaniola tonight. Unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with land should prevent redevelopment during the next day or two, but environmental conditions could become somewhat conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone later this week when the system is forecast to turn northward over the Bahamas and the western Atlantic.

.* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

Tropical Storm Beryl –  Satellite imagery and ASCAT scatterometer wind data confirm the sharp open-trough pattern that was indicated by earlier aircraft reconnaissance wind data. Although Beryl has a well-defined, tight vortex noted in GOES-16 hi-res visible satellite imagery, that feature appears to be located above the surface. The latest radar data from Martinique also shows little if any rotation in the most recent convective burst that has developed just north of the aforementioned vortex. Given that the remnants of Beryl are now moving at a forward speed of at least 23 kt, it is highly unlikely that the very small circulation is closed at the surface. The intensity remains at 40 kt based on the earlier reconnaissance 56-kt flight-level wind data and the latest burst of convection that has developed in the same general location as those earlier winds. Now that Beryl is no longer considered to be a tropical cyclone, the reconnaissance mission for this evening has been canceled.

On days 3-5, there appears to be an opportunity for the remnants of Beryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves through the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic. Vertical wind shear conditions are forecast by most of the models to be light, with even the possibility of the development of a weak upper-level anticyclone across the Bahamas. The combination of the favorable upper-level wind flow pattern in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures of 28-29 deg C should yield conditions conducive for the reformation of a tropical cyclone, although Beryl’s low-level remnants are likely to be significantly disrupted by Hispaniola and could take some time to reform.

The initial motion estimate is 290/23 kt. The remnants of Beryl should maintain this rapid west-northwestward motion for the next 12 hours, passing over the Leeward Islands tonight and moving into the northeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. Although Beryl is no longer a tropical cyclone, advisories will continue to be issued on this system until the tropical storm watch for Dominica has been discontinued.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible for Dominica tonight. Elsewhere across the Leeward Islands, strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains are possible tonight and Monday, and these conditions are expected to spread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola on Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 15.2N  60.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  09/0600Z 16.2N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE
 24H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Beryl  earlier this morning was unable to find a closed low-level center. However, the wind data from the aircraft indicated that a sharp through did exist northeastward of the deep convection located in the northeastern quadrant of the larger circulation. Since that time, a stronger burst of convection has developed over the sharp trough, and the assumption is that the convection could have spun up a new center. For that reason, the system is still being considered as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. The highest 850-mb flight-level wind measured was 56 kt in the northeast quad, which equates to about a 45-kt surface wind. However, the advisory intensity is being maintained at 40 kt in case the recent convective development doesn’t persist. Another reconnaissance mission into Beryl is scheduled for this evening.

The initial motion estimate is 290/20 kt. Beryl is expected to maintain this quick west-northwestward motion through dissipation due to the strong and broad deep-layer ridge that extends east-to-west across most of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The latest model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous advisory track, so no significant changes were required. For now, Beryl seems to have found a sweet spot where the vertical wind shear is a little lower and more difluent based on water vapor imagery. However, this localized favorable upper-level wind flow pattern is expected to be short-lived and give way to more hostile shear conditions by 12 hours and beyond when the shear is forecast to increase to more than 25 kt from the west. The result should be a rapid degeneration of the cyclone into an open wave by 24 h when the system will be moving over the eastern Caribbean Sea. However, the system will likely produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next couple of days. On days 3-5, there appears to be an opportunity for the remnants of Beryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves through the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic. Vertical wind shear conditions are forecast by most of the models to be light, with even the possibility of the development of a weak upper-level anticyclone across the Bahamas. The combination of the favorable upper-level wind flow pattern in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures of 28-29 deg C should yield conditions conducive for the reformation of a tropical cyclone, although Beryl’s low-level remnants are likely to be significantly disrupted by Hispaniola and could take some time to reform.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of the Lesser Antilles where Beryl is forecast to bring impacts from wind and rainfall to some of the islands beginning late today or tonight.

2. Although Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean, the system is likely to produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through Tuesday.

INIT  08/1500Z 14.4N  57.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 15.4N  60.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 16.8N  64.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE
 36H  10/0000Z 18.4N  68.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE
 48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Tropical Storm Beryl is currently comprised of a small swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with isolated patches of deep convection near and east of the center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little since the previous advisory, and based on them the initial intensity is set to a possibly generous 40 kt.

The initial motion is 290/16. A strong low- to mid-level subtropical ridge north of Beryl should steer the system quickly west-northwestward during the next 36-48 h, and the track guidance is in excellent agreement on this. So, the new track forecast is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.

Westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase over Beryl during the next 48 h, and the cyclone will also be moving into a drier and more stable air mass. Based on this, the official intensity forecast calls for continued weakening, with Beryl forecast to weaken to a depression just after moving through the Lesser Antilles and then degenerate into a tropical wave just after 36 h. It should be noted that the official forecast is based on the premise that enough convection will return to the system to partly sustain it, and if this does not happen Beryl could weaken to a wave sooner than currently forecast. However, it should also be noted that even as an open wave the system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several days.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl continues to weaken, but there is still a chance of some islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches remain in effect. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through early next week.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl’s current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 13.1N  54.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 14.0N  56.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 15.3N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 16.6N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Tropical Storm Beryl  is centered near 12.7N 52.7W at 07/2100 UTC  or 478 nm ESE of The Lesser Antilles moving W-NW at 12 kt.  Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained  wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to  strong convection is observed within 180 nm E of the center. Beryl is forecast to gradually weaken reaching near Hispaniola on Tue  and dissipate on Wed.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Hurricane Beryl has not changed much in appearance since this morning. The storm still has a tight low-level circulation with all of the deep convection displaced to the east and southeast of the center. Scatterometer data missed the circulation this morning, and we still do not have a good handle on Beryl’s maximum winds. Dvorak CI numbers are now 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity will be lowered to 45 kt, which could still be generous.

Beryl seems to be accelerating sooner than initially anticipated, and the 12-hour motion is now west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. Not only is the cyclone moving a little faster now, but the track guidance is also showing a faster future motion than it had been indicating. The overall guidance envelope has also shifted slightly northward. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous forecast to be closer to the multi-model consensus aids, and it has been shifted ever-so-slightly to the north as well.

With the low-level easterlies around Beryl increasing, and the cyclone expected to run into upper-level westerlies in about 24 hours, the deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen over the next couple of days. This increased shear and nearby dry air will likely cause Beryl to continue weakening, and the updated NHC intensity forecast now shows the cyclone weakening to a tropical depression by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea, if not sooner. Beryl is then likely to open up into a trough shortly after 48 hours, which is shown by all the global models. It should be noted that despite the expected weakening, some of the global models show deep convection reigniting due to upper-level divergence to the east of a trough, and even as an open wave the system will still likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several days.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl has continued to weaken today, but there is still a chance of some islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches remain in effect. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl’s current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 12.7N  52.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 13.4N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 14.6N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 15.9N  62.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 17.3N  66.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Hurricane Beryl’s  small size was always going to make it prone to wild and unpredictable fluctuations in intensity, and that appears to have come to fruition this morning. The cyclone’s low-level center is now completely exposed with all associated deep convection displaced to the east and southeast. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased accordingly, and the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, with Beryl being downgraded to a tropical storm.

Even though upper-level winds over the system remain light, and upper-level cloud motions are still from east to west, strengthening low-level flow is likely leading to an increase in the deep-layer westerly shear. In fact, analyses from UW-CIMSS indicate that about 15 kt of westerly shear is now over the system. The shear and a very dry ambient environment have likely caused the small and fragile cyclone to suddenly weaken. Since the low-level flow is expected to increase further, and Beryl will be running into upper-level westerlies in 36-48 hours, the shear is only expected to become more hostile. This will make it extremely difficult for Beryl to become more organized again, and its chances of being a hurricane before reaching the Lesser Antilles have decreased significantly. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous advisory, and now keeps Beryl as a tropical storm through the forecast period. The forecast intensities could still be a little high, and this prediction will remain low confidence until we get a better handle on Beryl’s initial intensity. Even though a 72-hour forecast is provided, it is entirely possible that Beryl will open up into a trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea before that time. Regardless of whether the system has a closed circulation, it is likely to continue producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles next week.

Beryl is now gaining more latitude and has an initial motion of 295/12 kt. The cyclone is still expected to accelerate toward the west-northwest during the next several days, and the track guidance remains tightly clustered through the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly northward due to Beryl’s recent northwestward jog, and it lies relatively close to the HCCA guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is no longer forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, but the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall continues. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional watches or warnings could be required for other islands later today.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl’s current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 12.1N  51.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 12.6N  52.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 13.6N  56.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 14.8N  59.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 15.9N  63.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 18.3N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 Although there has been no recent microwave imagery to help examine the inner-core structure of Hurricane Beryl , the small tropical cyclone appears to have lost some organization since yesterday afternoon. Shortwave GOES-16 infrared imagery suggests that the center is near the northwestern portion of the small convective mass. Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have dropped to T3.5 while CI numbers support keeping Beryl a 65-kt hurricane, but this could be generous.

The hurricane seems to have finally gained some latitude and the initial motion estimate is west-northwest or 285/12 kt. Beryl is located to the south of a strong mid-level ridge that is anchored over the west-central Atlantic. This should keep the cyclone on a general west-northwestward heading with some increase in forward speed over the next few days. The track models did not change much this cycle and only slight adjustments were made to the previous NHC forecast. The official forecast is once again along the southern side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the UKMET and FSSE models.

Beryl is expected to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment today, but an increase in westerly shear is expected on Sunday, and the shear is forecast to become quite strong as Beryl moves over the eastern Caribbean early next week. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during the next 24-36 h, but predicts steady weakening after that time. The updated intensity forecast is lower than the previous advisory due to the lower initial intensity and less bullish intensity guidance. The new NHC forecast also shows Beryl degenerating into an open trough in 3 to 4 days, which is in good agreement within the global models that all predict this to occur while the system moves across the eastern Caribbean. Regardless of whether the system has a closed circulation, it is likely to continue producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles next week.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall continue to increase. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect for some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional watches could be required for other islands today.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl’s current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 11.1N  49.8W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1
 12H  07/1800Z 11.7N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1
 24H  08/0600Z 12.6N  54.4W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1
 36H  08/1800Z 13.7N  57.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 14.8N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 17.2N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Hurricane Beryl near 10.9N 48.9W 994 mb at 11 PM EDT, or about  775 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving W at 12  kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Scattered moderate  convection is observed from 08N-13N between 45W-51W. A turn toward the west-northwest and a faster forward speed are expected on Saturday, with this motion continuing through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain by late Sunday or Monday.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Hurricane Beryl near 10.6N 47.8W 994 mb at 5 PM EDT, or about  805 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving W at 13  kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Scattered moderate  convection is observed from 08N-11N between 43W-50W. A faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the weekend and  continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the  center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain by late Sunday or Monday.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

Hurricane Beryl  has lost its tiny pinhole eye from earlier this morning, but the system continues to produce a compact area of deep convection near the center. Since Dvorak estimates have changed little from six hours ago, the initial intensity will remain 70 kt for this advisory. Global model fields continue to show an upper-level anticyclone moving westward in tandem with the hurricane for the next 48 hours or so, which would keep the vertical shear low enough to allow for some intensification.

After 48 hours, however, the upper-level pattern is expected to evolve to southerlies or westerlies over the system, which would increase the shear and cause weakening. Given the seemingly favorable environment for the next 2 days, the NHC intensity forecast continues to lie along the upper bound of the guidance. After 48 hours, the intensity forecast is closer to the HCCA model and the intensity consensus. It bears repeating that the intensity forecast remains highly uncertain given Beryl’s small size, and the cyclone could just as easily dissipate into an open wave sooner than indicated in the official forecast.

The hurricane is moving westward, or 270/13 kt, and may have actually lost a little latitude today. Given the more southerly initial position, the track guidance suite has shifted south accordingly, and the new NHC track has been adjusted in that direction as well, lying between the model consensus aids and the southern edge of the solutions. Additional southward adjustments to the forecast track are likely if Beryl does not gain latitude soon.

Given the larger-than-normal uncertainties associated with Beryl’s future track and intensity, the governments and meteorological services of several of the countries in the Lesser Antilles have elected to issue tropical storm or hurricane watches for their islands, sooner than the typical 48-hour threshold for the onset of tropical-storm-force winds. Please refer to products issued by the meteorological services of those respective countries for additional information.

Due to a technical issue, the wind speed probability values at land locations in the wind speed probability text product are too high and do not reflect reduced probabilities that are expected over land. The wind speed probability values provided in the graphics on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and in the publicly disseminated grid files do correctly reflect the reduced probabilities over land. As a result, users should refer to the NHC website graphics and gridded products instead of the text product for the most accurate wind speed probability values until this problem is resolved.

Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be a hurricane when it moves through the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are increasing. Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued by some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional watches could be required for other islands tonight or early Saturday.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl’s current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for Dominica. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * Martinique * Guadeloupe * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 10.6N  47.8W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1
 12H  07/0600Z 11.1N  49.4W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1
 24H  07/1800Z 11.9N  51.8W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1
 36H  08/0600Z 12.9N  54.7W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1
 48H  08/1800Z 13.8N  58.2W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1
 72H  09/1800Z 16.1N  66.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 18.5N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

Key Messages: 1. Beryl  is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are increasing. However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too early to determine exactly where those impacts will occur. Hurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser Antilles as soon as tonight. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl’s current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 10.7N  46.5W   70 KT  80 MPH - Category 1
 12H  07/0000Z 11.3N  47.9W   75 KT  85 MPH - Category 1
 24H  07/1200Z 12.2N  50.1W   80 KT  90 MPH - Category 1
 36H  08/0000Z 13.3N  53.0W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2
 48H  08/1200Z 14.2N  56.6W   85 KT 100 MPH - Category 2
 72H  09/1200Z 16.2N  64.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 18.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Beryl , located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean more than a thousand miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 10.6N 45.1W at 06/0900 UTC, or  about 1140 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving  west at 12 knots. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb.  Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 knots with gusts to 75 knots.  Scattered moderate to strong convection is flaring within 120 nm of the center. Beryl is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm  on Sat, and then continue to weaken into early next week. Increased winds and rainfall are likely to accompany Beryl as it  passes through the Lesser Antilles.

1. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward and stalls or meanders near the coast of North Carolina over the weekend. Interests along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean more than a thousand miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. The 500 update below has more information. Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. Tropical Depression TWO was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl at 05/2100 UTC. At this time, Beryl is centered near 10.3N 42.8W  moving W 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004  mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to  55 knots. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beryl could become a hurricane by Friday or Saturday. Beryl is forecast to  degenerate into an open trough just east of the Lesser Antilles  over the weekend. Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory  under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.  Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers are  within 90 nm of the center in the SW semicircle.

1. A well-defined low pressure system located about midway between the southeastern United States and Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for some development through the end of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward and then northward off the coast of North Carolina. The low could interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

Tropical Storm Beryl  has been a bit of a surprise today, which is not uncommon for tiny tropical cyclones such as itself. A 1724 UTC SSMI microwave pass and a 1853 UTC SSMI/S pass both revealed that the cyclone had developed a well-defined 5 nmi-wide mid-level eye, and a dimple has been apparent in visible satellite imagery. It’s usually difficult to get a good handle on the intensity of these types of cyclones given their small size, but data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.0. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 45 kt, but there is a lot of uncertainty in this estimate.

If the initial intensity is uncertain, the future intensity is even more of a quandary. Despite being surrounded by abundant dry air, Beryl has apparently been able to isolate itself and possibly moisten the near-storm environment while located in an area of low shear. Since the shear is expected to remain quite low for the next 36 hours or so, and small cyclones like Beryl often have a tendency to strengthen quickly over a short period of time, continued intensification appears likely for the next day or so. The updated NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the statistical- dynamical guidance, which lies at the upper end of the guidance envelope, and brings Beryl to hurricane strength within 36 hours. After that time, increasing westerly shear, partially due to Beryl accelerating toward the west, is expected to cause weakening. In addition, every global model shows the cyclone opening up into a tropical wave in 72-96 hours, which is what the NHC forecast continues to depict. It cannot be stressed enough, however, that this is a low confidence forecast.

The one stable part of the forecast is Beryl’s future track. The new guidance has not changed much from the previous forecast cycle, and it continues to show Beryl slowing down a bit during the next 24 hours, followed by a west-northwestward acceleration in 48-72 hours due to a strengthening ridge to the north. The updated NHC track forecast is just a bit south of the previous one and is closest to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance. Even though Beryl is expected to dissipate just east of the Lesser Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue moving quickly westward and will likely bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Key Messages: 1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl’s current intensity. Confidence in the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. 2. While Beryl is still expected to dissipate as a tropical cyclone by Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles, there will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands early next week. Residents there should monitor products from their local weather office for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT

INIT  05/2100Z 10.3N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH 
 12H  06/0600Z 10.8N  44.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 11.4N  46.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 12.1N  48.3W   65 KT  75 MPH - Category 1
 48H  07/1800Z 13.0N  51.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 14.5N  58.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two.

Tropical Depression TWO has developed in the Atlantic Ocean. The  center of Tropical Depression TWO at 05/1500 UTC is near 10.2N  41.4W, or 1200 nm ESE of The Lesser Antilles, moving W 14 knots.  The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum  sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.

1. A weak low pressure system located a few hundred miles west- southwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development through the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward and then northward at about 10 mph off the coast of North Carolina. The low is forecast to interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:  

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are still conducive for some development before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. The disturbance is then forecast to interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any additional development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well organized, and a tropical depression could form at any time. This disturbance is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, in a few days, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has changed little today. However, environmental conditions are gradually forecast to become more conducive for the development of a low pressure system by late this week when the disturbance is expected to be south or southwest of Bermuda. The system is forecast to move generally northward over the weekend and begin interacting with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. A vigorous tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the weekend, however, conditions are expected to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Upper-level winds could become somewhat conducive for development by late this week when the disturbance is forecast to be southwest of Bermuda. The system is forecast to move generally northward over the weekened and begin interacting with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low...30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Although this disturbance is moving inland over southeastern Louisiana and development is not expected, locally heavy rainfall is possible over southern Louisiana and southeastern Texas during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

2. A non-tropical low pressure system associated with an upper-level trough is expected to form southwest of Bermuda in a couple of days. The system could gradually acquire tropical characteristics later this week while it moves northwestward to northward. The disturbance is expected to interact with a front on Sunday and development is unlikely after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the north-central Gulf of Mexico across the western Florida panhandle is associated with a broad area of low pressure and associated surface trough. Close proximity to land should prevent significant development of this system before it moves westward and inland over southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday.

Regardless of development, this system is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

We are watching the NE Atlantic for signs of Tropical Storm Beryl developing.

Article Resources:

Video:Hurricane Beryl Time lapse – July 14, 2018

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