Tropical Storm Fabio

Tropical Storm Fabio 0500 Hours July 3 2018

Hurricane Fabio Satellite 2000 Hours July 3 2018

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 03 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC.

Hurricane Fabio (new July 3 video below)centered near 15.2N 115.6W at 03/1500 UTC or 560 nmi south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 120 nm southeast and 30 nm northwest semicircles of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere in bands within 480 nm of center except 270 nm over the northwest quadrant. Some additional strengthening is possible later today and Fabio is forecast to be near major hurricane strength tonight. Steady to rapid weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and Fabio will likely become a tropical storm on Thursday.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 03 2018

Tropical Storm Fabio centered near 15.1N 114.5W at 03/0900 UTC or 530 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 120 nm southeast and 30 nm northwest semicircles of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere in bands within 480 nm of center except 270 nm over the northwest quadrant. Fabio will strengthen to 90 kt gusts 110 kt near 15.8N 116.4W this afternoon, strengthen to 100 kt gusts to 120 kt near 16.9N 118.9W tonight, then weaken to 80 kt gusts to 100 kt reaching near 18.2N 121.5W on Wed afternoon, 75 kt gusts to 90 kt near 19.7N 123.7W on Wed night and then continue to move further west of the area.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jul 2 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fabio , located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Storm Fabio centered near 12.5N 110.1W at 02/0900 UTC or 720 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 70 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 120 of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere in bands from 07N to 16N between 105W and 115W. Fabio will strengthen to a hurricane near 13.1N 111.7W this afternoon, move to 14.0N 114.0W tonight, 15.0N 116.5W Tue afternoon, 16.1N 119.0W Tue night, and 18.6N 124.2W Wed night. Fabio will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.5N 129.0W on Thu night and become a post-tropical low pressure reaching near 24.5N 134.0W on Fri night.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 01 2018

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

Tropical Storm Fabio near 11.6N 106.4W 1003 mb at 2 AM PDT moving W NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 60 nm of center.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm either side of a line from 16N103W to 10N113W. Fabio will move to 12.0N 108.1W this afternoon, 12.7N 110.4W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.3N 112.5W Mon afternoon, 14.0N 114.6W Tue morning, and 15.5N 119.5W Wed morning. Fabio will begin to weaken as it moves to the 18.0N 124.5W early Thu, and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.0N 129.5W early Fri.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Emilia, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite data indicate that the disturbance associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico has not developed a well-defined center yet. However, conditions remain quite favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form well south of the coast of Mexico later today or Sunday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

If this storm system become organized, it will be named Tropical Storm Fabio.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, have become better organized over the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or so, well south of the coast of Mexico. If this storm system become organized, it will be named Tropical Storm Fabio. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move over the far eastern Pacific by Saturday. Environmental conditions should support gradual development of this system early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward, south of Central America and Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend, well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

If this storm system become organized, it will be named Tropical Storm Fabio.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move over the far eastern Pacific by Saturday. Environmental conditions should support gradual development after that time while the system moves westward to west-northwestward, south of Central America and Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

If this storm system become organized, it will be named Tropical Storm Fabio.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Jun 28 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend, well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high...90 percent.

If this storm system become organized, it will be named Tropical Storm Fabio.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 UTC Thu Jun 28 2018

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC.

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 09N to 16N between 113W and 119W. Slow strengthening is forecast for this system during the next 72 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

If this storm system become organized, it will be named Tropical Storm Fabio.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Jun 28 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form well south of the coast of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. Another tropical wave is forecast to move over southern Central America later today, and then move into the far eastern Pacific by late Friday. Environmental conditions should support some development early next week south of Central America while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.

Article Resources:

Video:Hurricane Fabio and outlook

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