Tropical Storm Daniel

Tropical Storm Daniel 1700 Hours June 25 2018
Tropical Storm Daniel 1700 Hours June 25 2018
Tropical Storm Daniel Emilia Satellite June 25 2018
Tropical Storm Daniel Potential Emilia Satellite June 25 2018

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Daniel (see video below), located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

At 2100 UTC Tropical Depression Daniel was located near 19.4N  118.1W or about 505 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of  Baja California, moving NW at 8 kt. The minimum central pressure  is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds have diminished to 30 kt  with gusts to 40 kt, requiring a downgrade to tropical  depression. Convection has continued to diminish in recent  hours, with scattered moderate convection seen in satellite
imagery within 90 nm across the SW semicircle. Daniel has begun  the expected weakening trend as it is entering into a more  stable environment and cooler waters. Gradual and steady  weakening is expected over the next few days as Daniel moves  more west northwest and then westward by late Tue. Daniel is  forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday.

1. Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located about 650 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has continued to increase today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally west-northwestward, well south of the coast of Mexico. If this system become a tropical storm it will be named Tropical Storm Emilia.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. A tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean Sea should move into the eastern Pacific tonight or Tuesday. Development is anticipated as the system moves westward away from Central America, and atropical depression is likely to form by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. If this system become a tropical storm it will be named Tropical Storm Fabio.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel , located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Development of this system is not expected before it merges with a low pressure area approaching from the southeast in a couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located about 600 miles south of eastern Mexico has become better organized during the last 24 hours. Additional development is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward, well south of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.  If this system becomes a named storm it will be Tropical Storm Emilia.

3. A tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean Sea should move into the eastern Pacific tonight or Tuesday. Gradual development of this system is expected as it moves westward away from Central America, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent. If this system becomes a named storm it will be Tropical Storm Fabio.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  0930 UTC.

At 0900 UTC Tropical Storm Daniel was located near 18.8N 116.9W  or about 470 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja  California, moving NNW at 9 kt. The minimum central pressure is  1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are now 40 kt with gusts to 50  kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm of the  southwest semicircle with isolated moderate convection occurring  in bands within 210 nm southeast semicircle. Daniel is expected  to begin weakening today as it starts to move over cooler waters  and into a more stable environment. Steady weakening is expected  over the next few days and Daniel is forecast to become a  remnant low on Tuesday.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing limited shower activity over a broad area. Development of this system is becoming less likely, and this disturbance is expected to merge with a low pressure area approaching from the east in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located about 500 miles south of eastern Mexico has become a little better organized during the last 24 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to steadily become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves generally westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

3. A tropical wave is expected to move out of the Caribbean Sea and into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday or Wednesday. Some subsequent development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression could form south of Central America or the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of this week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing limited shower activity over a broad area. Development of this system is becoming less likely, and this disturbance is expected to merge with a low pressure area approaching from the east in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located about 500 miles south of eastern Mexico has become a little better organized during the last 24 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to steadily become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves generally westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

3. A tropical wave is expected to move out of the Caribbean Sea and into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday or Wednesday. Some subsequent development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression could form south of Central America or the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of this week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization. Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Sunday
while the low moves northward to north-northwestward at about 10 mph. Development is not expected by Monday once the low reaches colder waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible during the next several days before it interacts and possibly merges with a tropical wave approaching from the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

3. A tropical wave moving across Central America into the eastern Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system by the middle of next week while it moves westward south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

On Thursday, June 21, 2018 Tropical Storm Daniel could be forming  in the Pacific ocean.  – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Jun 21 2018. The National Hurricane Center is observing two systems. “For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to develop from this system by the weekend or early next week a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves slowly westward to west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough is centered over 500 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development over the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly toward the north or north-northeast over the open eastern North Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent”

Article Resources:

Video: Tropical Storm Daniel on June 25 2018 Eastern Pacific

Please follow and like us: