Tropical Storm Beryl

Tropical Storm Beryl Possible Track June 16 2018
Tropical Storm Beryl Possible Track June 16 2018
Tropical Storm Beryl Possible June 16 2018
Tropical Storm Beryl Possible June 16 2018

Tropical Storm Beryl possible?

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 (see June 16 video below)

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough near the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper-level low over the western Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage since this morning. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a surface circulation does not exist, but strong winds are occuring to the north of the trough. Environmental conditions are not expected to support significant development, however, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico today and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough and an upper-level low are occuring over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico today and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula is associated with a surface trough. While significant development of this system is not anticipated, heavy rain and strong gusty winds are occurring across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and will overspread the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts by Sunday. For more details on this system please see products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018 

The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will continue westward across the remainder of the basin through the early part of the weekend, while another tropical wave currently in the Tropical N Atlantic will move into the eastern Caribbean on Fri and Sat.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are S of 11N in the SW Caribbean, and in the NW Caribbean W of 85W. Otherwise, mostly  fair weather is over the E Caribbean.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W  Caribbean W of 80W. A large upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean with axis along 72W.  Strong trades currently across the central Caribbean will shift
slightly W across the waters between 70W and 85W through the end of the week, then begin to diminish into the early part

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This area of disturbed weather, accompanied by strong gusty winds, is expected to move west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula and over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. Environmental conditions could become slightly more conducive for some development of this disturbance when it moves across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

The Atlc subtropical ridge continue to extend to great portions  of the northern and eastern Gulf while low pressure dominate the  SW Gulf waters. Low level moisture advecting from the Caribbean along with a middle level low in the W Gulf support scattered  showers in the bay of Campeche. Farther east, a surface trough  along the E Yucatan Peninsula and Belize is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern  Caribbean Sea, extending into the Yucatan Channel. This later  area of disturbed weather is forecast to move west-northwestward and move into the southwestern Gulf by Thursday afternoon. No  development is expected for the next day or so due to land  interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula and strong upper-level  winds. However, environmental conditions could become slightly  more conducive for some development of this disturbance while it  moves across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low pressure. This area of disturbed weather is expected to move westward to northwestward over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, and little development is expected during that time due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Environmental conditions could become slightly more conducive for some development when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted over the southwestern Caribbean Sea for the past several hours. This activity is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a large upper-level trough. Little development of this area of disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. However, environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

We are watching the NE Atlantic for signs of Tropical Storm Beryl developing.

Article Resources:

Video: 6/16/18 Saturday Morning Forecast

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